Bet the Mortgage: Week 11, 2018

I haven’t gone back to look at last week yet, but if it’s anything like my Alternative Picks, I probably am a bit closer to getting a concerned call from my fictional buddy Guido…

Tony:

$1,000 – New Orleans (-7.5, +105) vs Philadelphia – The Eagles are struggling mightily this year, and the Saints aren’t. If this was in Philly, I’d be hesitant on this one–but in New Orleans, I’m loving the +105 payout.

$1,000 – Atlanta (-3.5, -107) vs Dallas – A matchup  of two teams that always seem to lose when appear to possibly have figured something out, only to win when they appear to have drizzled it down their leg. With the Cowboys coming off a big divisional win, and the Falcons at home after an embarrassing loss to the Browns (not because it was the Browns–because they were never in the game), I’m surprirsed this line has moved towards the middle from 4.5.

$1,000 – Pittsburgh at Jacksonville: Over 47 (-105) – A lot of weeks I don’t like any of the totals–this week, there’s three I like–this one, the Chargers/Broncos over 46.5, and the Vikings/Bears over 44.  I’ll take what seems like the safest bet–look for the Steelers to jump out early, and the Jaguars to score some garbage points late. Which of course means if you’re in Vegas, the prop bet is the Jags score first and build up a 20+ point lead…

$750 – Cincinnati (+245 money line) over Baltimore – Yes, this game is in Baltimore. But it’s Lamar Jackson’s first NFL start.  And there’s a chance that RG3 will see some action. I legit can’t figure out how the moneyline has moved towards the Ravens even more.

Andy:

$1,000 – Carolina (-4, -115) at Detroit – The Lions have quit.

$1,000 – Houston (-3, -117) at Washington – Relying heavily on road teams again, but the Texans are for real and Washington is imploding.

$800 – Arizona (-5, -110) vs Oakland – The Raiders have become this year’s joke team.

$500 – Cincinnati (+245 money line) at Baltimore – So, maybe not really that much of an upset, but the Ravens are favored by a TD. Really? Bengals win outright.