Most logical dynasty fantasy football players have had Saquon Barkley on their radar for some time, and have had him locked in at 1.01 for 2018 rookie drafts since early in his junior season at Penn State. And if we are nothing else, we’d like to think we are logical dynasty fantasy football players–Barkley would be our first pick overall as well (if we had the 1.01 in any of our leagues…we should have, but we chose unwisely when we traded away a first last season, and ended up keeping 1.02 instead of 1.01).
However, we’ve seen some absolutely crazy proposals and deals reported on social media for the 1.01 pick, for the right to take Barkley–deals including LeVeon Bell, Todd Gurley, and sometimes more–to get a guy who won’t have his first NFL carry for the New York Giants for another 4+ months.
And if you look at his college numbers, it just doesn’t add up.
Yes, Saquon Barkley had 3,843 rushing yards in his rushing career, more than Leonard Fournette or Todd Gurley, and just behind Ezekiel Elliott, the last three big name running backs taken first overall in fantasy drafts.
But when you look deeper, there are some concerns there.
First, he got his 3,843 yards in 38 career games, and 671 total carries–3 more games than Zeke, and 6 more than Fournette, and 8 more than Gurley. He also had 671 carries in his career, meaning his yards per carry was nearly a full half yard behind the next lowest on the list (Fournette).
Second, he only managed 15 total 100+ yard rushing games in his career–and had a yards per carry of 7.72 in those 15 games, while only achieving 4.02 yards per carry in his non-100+ yard games. Of the backs we’ve looked at, only Fournette had a lower yards per carry average in his sub-100 yard rushing games (3.84), although Fournette also had 19 of his 32 career games eclipsing the 100-yard mark (and had a couple of brutal games against Alabama in there).
Finally, not an original take, but look at how Barkley did against some questionable competition, even in his junior season–10 carries for 47 yards against Georgia State, 20 for 56 against Indiana, and 14 for 35 yards against Rutgers. That’s the 4-8 Rutgers team that gave up 182 rushing yards per game. Yes, Penn State won the game 35-6, and Barkley only had 14 carries–but against a team like Rutgers, you should be seeing 14-120-3.
Some will clamor that Barkley’s receiving prowess is why he’s worth the fuss–but he also only had 4 career game with 6 or more catches.
Others will point to his combine measureables–which were definitely impressive. But your going to let the underwear olympics cause you to part with a proven running back who still has a lot of tread on the tires (and possibly additional draft capital) to take a chance on Barkley? Especially with a questionable quarterback and offensive line in New York?
I’ll sit back and collect that draft capital all day long.
I will not take your advice thank you very much