The good news: Our record was perfect last week in betting.  The bad news: That was a perfect 0-8.  Seriously, if we were really betting on these games, we’d be in hiding right now—not from kneecap breaking bookies, but probably from our wives.

By now it’s likely that if you’re coming to us for information on who to pick in Vegas that you probably have lost your bankroll for the season. You really shouldn’t be relying on us. You should instead maybe seek advice from this guy or this guy. Or maybe this guy.

But you’re here. And we’ve made weekly habit of making asses out of ourselves, so here we go again with our picks of the week.

Andy:

Kansas City (-5.5) vs Miami – Kansas City didn’t exactly look good in beating San Diego Monday night. But they seem to be getting it together on offense and getting by on defense. Miami is terrible. They’re poorly coached and they appear about ready to throw in the towel. I’d be surprised if this line didn’t get bigger throughout the week.

New York Jets (+1.5) @ Buffalo – I love what the Bills have done so far this season. But I’m not yet fully convinced they’re as good as their record indicates. The Jets are winless on the road and they have looked far less impressive than I expected. Naturally that means they’re about to turn it around and beat the up-and-coming Bills.

Philadelphia (-6.5) vs Chicago – The Bears are a much better team at home than on the road. Their two losses away from Soldier Field are by double digits. Philadelphia looked like a team ready to make a run on Sunday night against Dallas. If Mike Vick stays hot Chicago won’t have enough weapons to cover all the Eagles’ weapons. At least that’s what I’m going with today.

Upset of the week: San Diego (+5.5, ?? moneyline) vs Green Bay – Philip Rivers is having a terrible season and the Chargers looked like dog crap on Monday night. The Packers are well-rested after a bye week off. Aaron Rodgers might be having the best season ever for an NFL quarterback. There’s no earthly reason to think the Chargers might win this game. I haven’t gotten a pick right since week seven. Go big or go home. Chargers pull the stunning upset at home.

Tony:

Atlanta (-7) @ Indianapolis – OK, Indy—you’ve finally made me a believer.  The Falcons are on the road, but still indoors, and Julio Jones should be coming back.  Then again, I did just pick him up in a fantasy football league…

Green Bay (-5.5) @ San Diego – San Diego seems to want to give away what should be an easy divisional win for them.  The Packers are relatively healthy, coming off a bye, and have looked absolutely dominant.  Even with a huge number for the over (53) I would consider taking that, but I’ll give points with the Packers.

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh: Over 41.5 – This isn’t your old school 60-minutes of smash-mouth-run-it-up-the-gut football—the Steelers are using the passing game to control the clock, and the Ravens are able to score 24 second half points to come back from an 18 point halftime deficit…even if it was the Cardinals, both teams scoring 20 points shouldn’t be that difficult to see.

Upset of the week: Cincinnati (+3, +130 money line) @ Tennessee – There’s only two upsets I like outright this week, and the other (NY Jets @ Buffalo) is only paying +105, so I’ll go with the Bengals to beat Tennessee outright.  Andy Dalton is yet another rookie QB that is impressing, and Cedric Benson is coming off of a vacation week (suspended) so should be well rested, and Chris Johnson has completely disappeared since signing his contract, to the point where Javon Ringer is cutting into his playing time.