Congratulations to Tony T. After 17 weeks of mediocrity during the regular season he pulled it together enough during the 10 playoff games held so far to pull off the win in the postseason. Way to go.
And he was the only one to not foolishly bet against Bill Belichick last week, which admittedly counts for something.
He’d have pulled off a perfect Championship Weekend, if not for some of the worst officiating in the history of the NFL.
So, here we are. Super Bowl Sunday. The old school Patriots versus the young buck Rams. Who goes home with the Lombardi (will it be renamed after Belichick upon his retirement?) Trophy this year?
With just three playoff games left, I could have wrapped up the best record in the entire playoffs last week, with Andy going 1-3 after a 3-1 start Wildcard Weekend, and Tony P. going 3-1 after a 1-3 Wildcard Weekend. Had I gotten all four games right, I would have been a perfect 8-0 after two weeks, and sealed the deal. Unfortunately for me, in all my chatter about not wanting to see the Eagles back in the NFC Championship game, I forgot to actually make a pick … and I don’t even know for sure who I was going to pick, based on my own write up. I probably was going to go Eagles again, hoping to go wrong — but either way, even though I’m perfect on games I actually pick this postseason, I have left the door slightly open for Tony P. or Andy to catch me (if they go 3-0 and I go 0-3).
So of course, after a season that saw me pick games at a clip of at least 10 total games worse than the other guys, who manages to go 4-0 in the wildcard round of the playoffs? My score predictions maybe weren’t the greatest — but I even managed to get the one I wanted to get wrong right.
This week has some even more compelling games that I probably won’t watch:
Well, we’re not really going to do alternative picks in the postseason, but we still will share our thoughts on the games.
Andy:
Indianapolis at Houston — The Colts have been stunningly good on both sides of the ball. The Texans had a great run, but the offensive line can’t protect Watson. Prediction: Colts 28-24
Seattle at Dallas — Are the Cowboys that good or are they the product of a division that wasn’t very successful? I’m not a believer in Dak. The Seahawks have not been as good on the road as at home, but I’ll take Russell Wilson in this duel 100 times out of 100. Prediction: Seahawks 24-14
L.A. Chargers at Baltimore — The Ravens defense is legit. The Chargers are also really good. Had they won homefield, I might be picking them for the Super Bowl. Hell, might be anyway, knowing Andy Reid’s propensity for grasping his throat and squeezing hard in the playoffs. Can Baltimore keep Lamar Jackson from looking like a rookie? Prediction: Chargers 24-17
Philadelphia at Chicago — The Bears are awesome and, for once, fun to watch. The Eagles struggled all season, but got hot at the right time and snuck in. Mitch Trubisky is the key here. Can the Eagles keep it close enough where they force him to have to make plays? Or do the Bears get a lead and pound? Prediction: Eagles 20-16
Tony T.:
A full slate of games that I could care so little about, its unbelievable.
Indianapolis at Houston — DeSahaun Watson may have been the comeback player of the year if not for Andrew Luck. The Colts haven’t been particularly good in the playoffs with Luck at QB, but they’ve also not been good at building an OL or coaching up until this year. Colts 31, Texans 17.
Seattle at Dallas — Two teams that I haven’t believed in all year. I still can’t figure out how the Seahawks ran for that many yards with as non-descript of running backs as they have, nor how Dak Prescott managed to salvage Amari Cooper’s season/career. Ultiamtely, I think the Cowboys running game is what wins this one, amazingly enough. Dallas 20, Seattle 17.
LA Chargers at Baltimore — The closest to a game I’m interested in this weekend. Ultimately, I’m not convinced that the Ravens offense (Lamar Jackson) is ready for this type of game. It would be interesting to see them prove that they are, though–they do have a defense that could give the Chargers fits. Chargers 23, Ravens 13.
Philadelphia at Chicago — If the Eagles go on a run to the Super Bowl again this year, will their fans be just as obnoxious as last year? Did the city of brotherly love budget extra Crisco for greasing up their light poles this year? Did the police department decide to change up the diets of their mounted police horses, in case another genius Eagles fan decides to once again get on hands and knees to take a taste of their excrement? Isn’t it sad that these are legitimate questions in 2019? I’m not sure that the Eagles have what it takes to stop Khalil Mack, or effectively stop Matt Nagy’s offense–but I’ll pick them just the same. Eagles 35, Bears 13. Hopefully that’s as good of a pick as the rest I’ve made this season.
We started writing our Super Bowl Preview on Monday of this past week, but with travel schedules and a general malaise over the game, it took us until Friday to finish it…and today to post it. But, here it is, in all its glory, to preserve our predictions and see who (if anyone) gets bragging rights…
Tony: I forget every year just how enjoyable that first weekend is without football each year. Apparently there is sitll one game to play, but as a Minnesotan, I can’t say I’ve heard much about it
Andy: LOL. Do you even like football? Yeah, I’ve heard more in the last week about how bad Eagles fans are than I have about the game itself. And it’s true, they are neanderthals, by and large. But it’s time to get to the game — if for no other reason than so you can get to further enjoying your offseason away from this game you seem to both love and hate so much.
Tony: I do love football…but a game featuring one fan base that has gone from one most loveable losers (across all sports) to insufferable, entitled doucheclowns (across all sports) in less than a generation, against a fanbase that actually revels in the fact that they are neanderthals…makes it tough to care. Add in that the team I wanted to see in the Super Bowl once again ripped my heart out, AND I apparently have to endure a full week of non-stop local media coverage of it…well, I wish I had tickets to the Carribean.
Andy: At least the Vikings ripped it out fast this year instead of waiting until they had a lead late or a chance at a game-tying field goal … well, nevermind. Yeah, I agree, it’s a bad match-up in terms of which team I would like to see win. So it goes. We have to be professionals here … (snicker, guffaw).
Tony: Screw professionalism…I’ll start being professional when I start getting a paycheck around here. Maybe. In the meantime, I say we keep making our Super Bowl preview about Minnesota. And maybe Jacksonville. I mean, all the northeastern jagoffs can say all they want about how terrible a Vikings-Jaguars Super Bowl would have been for ratings, but does anyone outside of New England or Philadelphia really care about this game? Not like ratings will be down, and I suppose there are plenty of fans that don’t really realize how big of nimrods Eagles fans are that will tune in to hope that the mighty Patriots fail, but that’s got to be the biggest draw to the game, right?
Andy: The hope that the Patriots will fail? Yeah, I imagine that will be among the biggest draws. It’d be a little different if Carson Wentz was still playing. It’d be old guard vs new guard, etc. Can the young guy come in and overtake the old guy. But that’s out the window. I suspect the same alure isn’t there with Nick Foles at QB. I heard someone on the radio the other day say the Eagles are probably better than New England at every position other than QB. Do you buy that?
Tony: Better than? No. Equal to? Maybe. The first position that argument falls apart is TE, if Rob Gronkowski plays. I like Zach Ertz, and would probably rather have him on my team (fantasy and real life), but Gronk is the better player in a single game, as long as he isn’t trying to injure the other teams DBs. Outside of that, they’re fairly equal at RB (both have a stable of ok backs, not a great one), and slightly above average WR. I probably give the edge to the Eagles on both lines. As for linebacking and defensive secondary…not sure I could name anyone on either team, to be honest.
Andy: I would guess the guy was grouping TEs and WRs into a receiver category, but yeah, you could be right. Still, Ertz, on a good day, is about as close as you are going to get to Gronk as anyone else in the league other than maybe Travis Kelce. At RB, I think Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead are fine, but Jay Ajayi has more breakaway ability and I think LeGarrette Blount is a better bruiser than what the Pats throw out there. I do think the Eagles’ defense as a whole is better than New England’s is, though the Patriots, once again, have managed to figure out how to be competitive on that side of the ball most of the season after looking the first couple weeks like warmed over dog crap.
Tony: You do have to wonder a little bit as well about the Patriots coaching staff, with Josh McDaniels heading to Indianapolis and Matt Patricia heading to Detroit, will there hearts be in it? It sounds like crazy speculation, but we’ve seen time and time again coordinators who are clearly on their way out seemingly drop the ball at big times like these. Kyle Shannahan and Pat Shurmur being two recent examples.
At the same time, the Patriots have two things going for them that the Eagles can’t even get close to approaching–Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. Despite protests from some Eagles fans, who will probably grunt to disagree while picking their knuckles up off the ground just long enough to hurl a beer at anyone who says otherwise, Nick Foles isn’t even worthy of being the guy that lets the air out of the ball for Brady, and Belichick doesn’t even need to break out his sleeveless sweatshirt to coach circles around Doug Pederson’s frat visor.
Andy: Yep, I think we’re on the same page here. Whether they are or aren’t, Philadelphia could be 10 times better than New England at every other position on the field and on the sideline. Brady and Belichick are equilizers. And I have no worries about their coordinators, either. Those guys know the score. They know they can take on their new teams starting in about five days. There’s another Lombardi at stake, an ever-increasing legacy for this team. The Patriots’ goal here is greater than beating the Eagles. It’s also cementing its place as the greatest dynasty of the salary cap era, one of the greatest NFL dynasties of all time — perhaps the greatest — and, yes, as one of the greatest sports dynasties in all of professional sports history. Like them or not, think they cheated a couple times to get here or not, there aren’t many teams in the history of sport who can match this run. I think it continues. Patriots 27, Eagles 19.
Tony: I actually don’t think they need to cement their place as the greatest dynasty of all time–I think that’s already done. We’re talking about a team that has made 8 Super Bowl appearances in 16 seasons, and already have won 5 of them. The only thing another win does is put them that much further ahead of any other team possibly reaching them…and the only other team in any sport that could have a chance right now would probably be the Golden State Warriors, who would probably be disqualified from reaching anywhere near the Patriots plateau unless they lose Kevin Durant, developed some more in house talent, and kept the winning ways going for another 10 years.
I actually think the more interesting stories if this Super Bowl might be 1) can the Patriots finally score in the first quarter of a Super Bowl under Belichick, and 2) can they win a Super Bowl by more than 6 points for the first time under Belichick. If they can’t do #1, I suspect they will struggle to do #2–they might even struggle to win. But if they can pull off #1, I think they walk away with it easily. And personally, I think they do–I think the Patriots win 31-13, and heaven help people in the streets of Minneapolis when whatever Eagles fans made it to town leave the building.
Well, another week, another split for Andy and I–we both went 1-1 in the AFC (who would have thought the Patriots could outlast that pesky Titans squad, eh?), and we each got a different one wrong in the NFC–Andy missing with his pick of the Falcons, while I missed on the game that I was hoping I would miss. We’ll jump straight into this Sunday’s big match ups.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots – Sunday, January 21st, 2018 – 1:05PM kickoff
Tony: Conference Championship Sunday will start with the match up everyone expected in the AFC, the New England Patriots hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars. I mean, you all picked Jacksonville to kick three kinds of dog crap out of Pittsburgh, right? And don’t let the final score (45-42) trick you–the game wasn’t that close. Of course, there is one concerning thing for Jaguars fans about that score–the fact that their 2nd ranked defense gave up 42 points at all. The Steelers are a good team, but the Patriots are better.
Andy: I wouldn’t be too hard on the Jaguars’ defense. Jacksonville got off to a quick start and, for the majority of the game, never led by fewer than two scores. Just like in the Vikings game, the winner was going up against a potentially Hall of Fame caliber QB who wasn’t going to shrivel up in a ball and quit. And the Jaguars offense, when needed, showed up and made plays — I did not think there was any chance the Jags won a shootout, but I was wrong.
Now, they do need to regroup a bit. The Steelers will throw out a clunker every now and again and they were minus Ryan Shazier, which left them vulnerable to the run the last several weeks. The Patriots aren’t likely to do so. New England, I believe, is on another “us against the world” journey following reports if internal dissension. This will be a much tougher nut for the Cats to crack.
Tony: Like many, I didn’t give the Jaguars much of a chance against the Steelers. And like many, I’m not giving them much of a chance against the Patriots. To say it couldn’t happen, though, is folly. The Steelers were third in passing offense, and third in overall offense. The Patriots had the top ranked overall offense in the NFL, but they were led by their passing game (2nd overall, 276.1 yards per game)–so it’s not like the Patriots offense is significantly superior to the one the Jags just faced. The Jags had the best passing defense in the league, at just 169.9 yards per game, although they were 21st against the run (a stat that moved up with the acquisition of Marcell Dareus). While it seems unlikely that the Jags will completely shut down Tom Brady, they can undoubtedly cause him some problems, and/or force the Pats to focus on their run game, not something that they are known for having the patience of.
On the flip side, the Patriots have the 20th ranked run defense, and 30th ranked pass defense–facts that should have Leonard Fournette licking his chops, as long as his ankle is healthy. And for all of his detractors, Blake Bortles played exactly like they will need him to against the Patriots–not huge yardage, but moving the ball well when needed, and putting them in a position to score on the ground.
Andy: While all the statistics say the Jags have a shot and this could be a good game, there are a couple factors that say otherwise: Tom Brady is mountains better than Blake Bortles. Bill Belichick is more experienced, established and, at least at this point, better than Doug Marrone. And the Patriots have been winning games like these for a decade-and-a-half. The Jags … they’ve been mostly irrelevant during that timeframe. Jacksonville is back — make no mistake — they will be in games like this for several years to come. But New England wins this one, 30-13.
Tony: There are all kinds of factors that say the Patriots should clean up this game rather easily–just like there were factors that pointed to the Jaguars getting killed by the Steelers. I don’t think that the Patriots will make the biggest mistake that I suspect the Steelers made, which is looking past the Jaguars–but I do think that the Jags will give them a game. I’ve got the Patriots winning 20-10.
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles – Sunday, January 21st, 2018 – 4:40PM kickoff
Tony: On the NFC side, the Minnesota Vikings will travel to Philadelphia to face the Eagles after their stunning, last second victory over the New Orleans Saints. As a Vikings fan, my biggest fears right now are 1) a let down after the huge comeback win, 2) a misguided belief that the Vikings are “destined” to play in their home Super Bowl leading to over confidence, and 3) whether or not Andrew Sendejo will be out of concussion protocol (which I never would have guessed would have been a concern).
Andy: I think Mike Zimmer is a pretty good coach and he has plenty of ammunition on his players to make sure they get focused on Philadelphia. Namely, he can play off of how they gave up a 17-0 halftime lead. So I’m not too worried about losing because they suddenly think they are a team of destiny.
What does worry me a bit is that in the Eagles game against Atlanta it looked like Philly had found a way to use Nick Foles as a strength, or at least as a neutral figure, while avoiding his deficiencies. That, coupled with another strong defense, do make the Eagles a threat that for a bit it looked like they weren’t going to be. I suspect neither team will get off to a 17 point lead this week and, if one of the teams does, I feel equally confident that there will not be a huge comeback, as nobody in this game is as equipped as Drew Brees to make that kind of rally happen.
Tony: Nick Foles isn’t as bad as the reputation that he has had the last 2 months, but this is the guy who was benched in his last year in St. Louis in favor of…Case Keenum. On the plus side, I believe the Eagles really need the run game to take the pressure off him–and while they only managed 25-78 against the Falcons, they might struggle to get even that much against the Vikings. And while the Falcons defense is pretty solid, I’m not sure that Foles can manage 23/30 for 246 against the Vikings either.
What may be the most interesting match up of the game will actually be the Vikings offense against the Eagles defense–across the lines especially. Fletcher Cox in particular will be a tough load for the Vikings OL to handle, but if the Vikings can manage the same 88 yards on the ground that the Falcons got, I think the Vikings will be in decent shape.
Andy: I don’t think by saying Nick Foles is unlikely to replicate what Drew Brees did that I’m saying he is a bad QB. Brees is one of the best and he has great weapons around him. Foles is a solid backup QB. But he doesn’t have skillset as Brees and the surrounding talent is less explosive. So Philly has to stay close or get ahead early, that’s all.
I do agree with the last part. If the Vikings can’t handle the d-line, it’s going to be a long day. It might be anyway. I don’t expect a lot of scoring in this game. There could be a lot of punting, running on third down and field-positioning in this one.
Tony: Ultimately, while my confidence in the Vikings against the Saints seemed to dwindle as the week went on–right now, as I dig into the game against the Eagles, my confidence seems to be increasing–and as a Vikings fan, that scares me. Of course, I’ve avoided picking the Vikings all season long, something I continued last week in picking the Saints. So this week, I’m going to once again hope I’m wrong, and pick the Eagles gutting out a narrow victory, 17-16.
Andy: I know you’re superstitious about the Vikings. And I also try to avoid getting too amped up, knowing the history. But this team warrants your confidence. They just have a bit of a different feel this season, a more resilient feel. That’s a bit nebulous, I know, but I’ve felt this way from about mid-season. If the Eagles were coming into this game with Carson Wentz, I would definitely look at it differently. That’s not a knock on Foles as much as it is a credit to Wentz — the Eagles, at times, looked almost unbeatable when he was playing. And the team rallied around him. With Foles, this game is a toss-up. I’ll get specific here as the Vikings continue their “conquering demons” tour. Minnesota will be up by seven in the waning minutes. Foles will lead a drive deep into Vikings territory. On, let’s say, fourth-and-four from the six, Foles will drop back and pass to Jay Ajayi running parallel to the end zone. At the last second, Xavier Rhodes, who will be covering Alshon Jeffery, will break on the route, hitting Ajayi at the same time the ball arrives, knocking it to the turf and preserving the game for Minnesota. Vikings 17, Eagles 10.
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