Doing “the opposite” catching on

by | Jun 18, 2008 | Fantasy Football

Fantasy football conventional wisdom says grab running backs early and often. And in many cases that’s true. Nobody is saying pass up LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, Brian Westbrook or Steven Jackson if you have one of the top four or five picks. But with the increasing propensity of the running back-by-committee and the humongous passing stats being put up by teams like New England and Indianapolis, that advice now comes with an asterisk.

Let fantasy drafts come to you. It’s no longer taboo to grab a top quarterback – Tom Brady or Peyton Manning – or the top ranked wide receiver in the latter half of round one. Paul Charchian, founder of the Web site Fanball.com, has long espoused a strategy he calls “Doing the opposite” and ever since I started being more purposeful in my own scouting and rankings I’ve had much more fantasy football success.

The truth is in most scoring systems Randy Moss had more points than any running back last season except Tomlinson and Braylon Edwards wasn’t far behind. If you had grabbed the combination of Terrell Owens and Reggie Wayne and then stolen Adrian Peterson in the third round you’d have been well on your way to a championship.

I’d been planning on writing a post like this for awhile. The folks at NFL.com sort of stole my thunder. But the fact remains – there’s more than one way to win a fantasy football championship. If you go RB, RB in the first two rounds you’re as likely to go bust as you are to go boom. Take a gander at this link and then adjust your draft lists accordingly. … and if you don’t, please invite me into your league so I can get a piece of that pot.

Cheers.

Benson gives Bears reason to cut him

by | Jun 9, 2008 | Fantasy Football, NFL News

Move Matt Forte higher on your fantasy football draft lists.

Cedric Benson has officially joined Curtis Enis and Rashan Salaam as recent Bear busts at running back. The Bears finally had enough of his lack of production coupled with his offseason antics, which most recently included his second alcohol-related arrest in a month.

The first time he was on a boat and denied being at fault. Instead of keeping his nose clean in an effort to strengthen his credibility, Benson was arrested Saturday, June 7, this time for drinking and driving in a car.

“Given the incident last month, it was a particularly bad decision. I have no excuse for this lack of judgment. Though I strongly believe that I am not guilty of any crime, I realize that the public and the Bears organization hold me to a higher standard,” Benson said in a statement picked up by media outlets.

Well, in all likelihood Benson will get off on these two drinking offenses with little repercussion and he’ll sign with another team. But I think the Bears were looking for a reason to get rid of him anyway. I think Matt Forte should shoot up fantasy draft lists, not into the first round or two, but definitely into the second- or third-tier of backs. He potentially jumps to the top of the list of rookie backs with a chance to make a significant contribution.

And Benson, well, Benson probably blew his best chance at being an NFL feature back. His value was limited before he got cut. At this point he’s a late round draftee if at all.

Kevin Jones healing fast

by | Jun 4, 2008 | Fantasy Football, NFL News

Kevin Jones is five months into rehabilitating an ACL reconstruction and a doctor says he is as much as seven months ahead of schedule. All he needs, according to mlive.com (what the hell is mlive.com?), he’s motivated and looking to show teams he is worth more than a minimum-level salary.

Now, Jones has always been injury prone. He hasn’t played 16 games in his four-year career and just last year came back early from a Lisfranc surgery on his left foot.

But when he is in there he’s shown flashed of brilliance as a runner and the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. He’s motivated by the opportunity to show the Lions coaching staff they made a mistake by cutting him.

I think someone is going to take this guy to either split carries (Paired with Laurence Maroney in New England? Maybe he fits as another cog in Seattle in case Julius Jones is mediocre?) or as insurance (Rudi J in Cincy and Edgerrin James in Arizona have been trending downward) against an aging back sliding.

He could end up being a pretty good fit in Chicago too as Cedric Benson continues to disappoint and you never know with rookies, although Matt Forte is reportedly a guy the Bears staff is legitimately excited about.

I like this option the best. If the Bears were to bring in Jones and give him a chance to get some real carries, it still wouldn’t make the Bears a contender this year. But with the motivation of playing against the Lions twice, Jones would become a sleeper running back to watch out for in fantasy football drafts in the next couple of months.

Young Closer to 2,000 Yard Goal; Broncos Cut Henry

by | Jun 2, 2008 | 2008 NFL Free Agency, Fantasy Football, NFL Breaking News

The Denver Broncos released Travis Henry Monday, just over a year after signing him to a five-year, $22.5 million contract.  GM/Coach Mike Shanahan took the somewhat unusual step of throwing Henry under the bus as he was releasing him.

“We did not feel his commitment to the Broncos was enough to warrant a spot on this football team,” he said.

Henry, who pulled a hamstring running sprints last month in minicamp, also missed time last year due to injuries, and was nearly suspended for a year due to marijuana use, although he was able to get the punishment overturned.

He did manage 691 yards and four touchdowns in his one season in Denver.

The Broncos added veteran Michael Pittman to their backfield last week, and also have Selvin Young, Andre Hall and rookie Ryan Torain on the roster.  Since it remains to be seen who (if anyone) will get the majority of the carries in Denver, fantasy owners should still stay away from the Broncos backfield in the early rounds.

Young’s 2,000 Yard Goal Even More in Doubt

by | May 27, 2008 | 2008 NFL Free Agency, Fantasy Football, NFL Breaking News

Last week, Selvin Young claimed he thought he could reach 2,000 yards rushing for the Denver Broncos.  Despite the team also having Travis Henry, Andre Hall, and rookie draft pick Ryan Torain also on the roster.

After Henry tweaked his hamstring last week, you can add Michael Pittman to the list of names standing in Young’s rush to 2,000.

“There’s a lot of ways Michael can help the Broncos,” Rosenhaus said. “He can play fullback, halfback, he can catch the ball out of the backfield, return punts and return kicks. He’s a versatile back.”

He can also make a mean battering ram, and between he and Henry, the Broncos might actually get a full season’s worth of carries.

Jesting aside, this likely has little to no significant fantasy impact for 2008–given the injury concerns, and Mike Shanahan’s penchant for splitting carries, if you take a Broncos RB early in the draft you should be mocked mercilessly by your league mates.