Tony got his win during Week 3, then managed to shut himself out Week 4 — somehow in editing his lineup, he managed to not technically file a lineup … but the contest moved forward, so he lost his wager. However, we figured out his point total from Week 4 manually and … he would have lost anyway — albeit close, 123.08-120.18. Another 30 yards would have given him a win.
Andy’s still got the lead for the season, but the gap tightened considerably.
Week 4
Season
Total points
Andy
123.08
0-1
541.06
Tony
120.18
1-3
521.40
Tony
QB – Russell Wilson vs Min – $8,300 – I have a sneaky suspicion that we may have some overlap in our lineups this week …
RB – James Robinson @ Hou – $6,900 – Sacrificing a little bit at RB this week … (more…)
Tony titled week three’s DFS contest at Fanball.com “Tony needs a win.” He did need a win and he got it, scoring a 50-point shellacking over Andy.
Andy’s still got the lead for the season, but the gap tightened considerably.
Week 3
Season
Total points
Andy
126.64
2-1
417.98
Tony
175.1
1-2
401.22
Andy –
QB – Aaron Rodgers vs Atlanta – $7,400 – The only thing that worries me here is that Green Bay could end up with a big enough lead early enough to mute his later-game performance, but hopefully Matt Ryan keeps things just close enough for that to not happen.
RB – Darrell Henderson vs NY Giants – $6,400 – The salaries are starting to catch up with the performance here, but Henderson
Photo credit: Mike Morbeck, via Wikipedia The writers see Aaron Rodgers having a big week — if Green Bay has to throw the ball.
against the Giants should perform well enough to make it worthwhile. The Rams have gone to more of a ball-control offense and they should be able to run a lot against the Giants.
RB – Aaron Jones vs Atlanta – $8,200 – Whatever Rodgers doesn’t get, Jones should. Maybe they even connect on a TD through the air.
WR – Davante Adams vs Atlanta – $8,100 – Going heavy on the Packers here, if you hadn’t noticed. Adams should return from injury in a big way. Allan Lazard filled in well for a week, but Davante will regain his rightful role as the WR1.
WR — Tyreek Hill vs New England – $7,700 — Davante Adams tweeted, then deleted, that he will miss tonight’s game. There aren’t a lot of guys left who have the upside ceiling Adams would have with nearly every other healthy Packer wideout injured. But Tyreek should be good for a couple points.
WR – Sammy Watkins vs New England – $4,900 – I’m not a huge Watkins fan, but in three weeks, he’s had two games with eight or more targets. He’s averaging 13 points per week in this format. I suspect he’ll stay close to that against the Patriots, providing a solid payoff at the price. And if he can pop one into the end zone, the risk pays off immensely.
WR – DK Metcalf @ Miami – $7,400 – Metcalf is off to a really solid start to the 2020 season and it would be even better had he not let himself get stripped of a TD last week. He scored late to start making up for that blunder and I suspect that carries forward into this week.
TE – Jordan Akins vs Minnesota – $3,500 – Akins has taken over the receiving TE role in Houston. His price is still low, he’s averaging 10 points a week and he goes against a Vikings defense that is still starting a bunch of inexperienced corners and is down not just Danielle Hunter, but Anthony Barr too. If Green Bay weren’t offering up so many big money players this week, I’d have happily taken guys like Will Fuller or Brandin Cooks going up against this defense.
Flex – Robert Woods vs New York Giants – $6,900 – He not the sexiest player and he doesn’t have the biggest name out there, but he just keeps producing.
DST – Tampa Bay vs Los Angeles Chargers – $2,200 – Once again, scroll to the bottom, find the cheapest defense that isn’t likely to embarrass itself, click select.
Editor’s note: This was edited Monday at 1 p.m. CT to reflect the likelihood that Adams is out tonight.
Tony –
QB – Aaron Rodgers vs Atlanta – $7,400 – He’s playing lights out, against the team with the lowest opponent ranking in the league, and his top weapon will be back. My only fear is that they’ll run the ball exclusively in the second half … but Atlanta likes to give up leads, too.
RB – Kenyan Drake @ Carolina – $6,500 – A value play against a low ranked Carolina defense.
RB – Alvin Kamara @ Detroit – $8,500 – Kamara is averaging 37.9 FP/G. Next highest is 28.1, and that guy is on IR … and would still cost $1k more to put in my lineup.
WR – Davante Adams vs Atlanta – $8,100 – Going for the stack this week…hasn’t worked out so well in the past for me, but after a week off, Rodgers will love having his security blanket back.
WR — Tyreek Hill vs New England – $7,700 — I would normally take Ridley for $7,900, but with him and Julio both listed as Questionable, I’ll go with Hill.
WR – CeeDee Lamb vs Cleveland – $5,900 – One of these weeks he’s finally going to blow up … and at $5,900, I’ll hope like hell it’s this week.
WR/TE – Robert Woods vs NY Giants – $6,900 – The Giants are not good at defense. Well, it’s not the only thing they’re not good at … but it’s in the top three.
TE – Christopher Herndon vs Denver – $3,500 – Since we’re punting TE every week, it seems … wonder why they call him Christopher rather than Chris (which I see on all other platforms), but not Christopher Herndon IV, if they’re going to go all formal? Broncos may unintentionally be in the running with the Jets for Trevor Lawrence when this is all done … they’re starting Mark Rypien’s nephew.
Flex – Darius Slayton @ LA Rams – $5,500 – Just needed a guy to squeeze in here at $5500, and Slayton has been pretty much the one bright point for the Giants this year.
DST – Houston vs Minnesota – $2,700 – They’re cheap and they play the Vikings…
Two weeks in and Tony has proven why he shut down his DFS account a couple years ago after a big win — he doesn’t know what the hell he’s doing. He made it closer in Week 2, scoring 10 more points than week 1, but couldn’t quite catch up in the end thanks to disappointing performances from the bottom half of his lineup.
Hopefully he can right the ship before he has to reload his Fanball account.
Week two
Season record
Total points
Andy
131.36
2-0
291.34
Tony
118.06
0-2
226.12
Tony: This week … I sadly steal a page from Andy’s playbook, as I’ve been smoked the first two weeks—I basically punt on TE & DST (although both picks have decent matchups), and load up on some starts up top. (more…)
Bragging rights are probably more important than the $2 each week that change hands in the Zoneblitz.com DFS Contest. Andy left week one comfortably ahead.
A lineup stacked with some of the week’s hottest performers, from Davante Adams (44.6) to Russell Wilson (33.78) and Dalvin Cook (21.8) to DJ Metcalf (19.5), he received production from almost every player.
Week one
Season record
Total points
Andy
159.98
1-0
159.98
Tony
108.06
0-1
108.06
These things have a way of evening up over time. Can Tony strike back in week two and gain a measure of revenge?
Tony: Well, my strategy didn’t work in the first week—so I’m mixing it up in week 2, spreading things out a bit more, although still taking a couple cheap options to bring in a couple big names at the top. (more…)
One area of fantasy football … perhaps the only area … that we have not completely been obsessed with in recent years is DFS. Neither of us would claim to be particularly good at it – for the most part we’re kind of winging it. But at various levels it only makes sense that this become the next avenue we attempt to figure out. We’ve decided to start by staging a weekly contest. Values from Fanball.com.
If you are so inclined, leave your own lineups or feedback on our lineups in the comments section. We’re looking for any tips we can find in order to improve.
Andy:
I’ve messed around with DFS over the years, but had limited success. Stack these guys, stack games, balance the roster, studs and duds. Sleeper plays. It kind of makes my head spin sometimes. I initially looked at building around Joe Burrow and the Bengals against San Diego, but … he’s not played an NFL game before. I guess in tournaments that might make a bit more sense, but as I understand it, in a head-to-head match-up, the smart play is a safer play? So, here’s what I ended up with.
QB – Russell Wilson @ Atlanta ($7,700) – The Seahawks go on the road, but the Falcons haven’t been an intimidating opponent the last few years. Part of me wanted to go Joe Burrow here, but Wilson, while more expensive, feels safer here.
RB – Jonathan Taylor @ Jacksonville ($6,500) – The more I read about Taylor, the more I think it’s not going to be long where he’s available at this price. The Jaguars are terrible – really not even trying to win this year. Colts fans will get a glimpse early on why they took the Wisconsin back.
RB – Dalvin Cook vs Green Bay ($8,400) – Cook had a massive game at Lambeau Field in 2019, rushing for 154 yards and a score while catching three passes for 37 yards. Cook missed the game at U.S. Bank Stadium. He gets a shot this weekend to make up for the (terrible) pass interference call against him in that earlier contest that cost Minnesota a comeback win.
WR – DK Metcalf @ Atlanta ($6,900) – I am huge on Metcalf this season. He’s built like a WR1 and I think he takes on that role, starting this week against the Falcons.
WR – Davante Adams @ Minnesota ($7,700) – Aaron Rodgers targeted Adams 25 times across two games last season against Minnesota. Adams produced 20 catches and 222 yards in those contests. The Vikings pretty much revamped the CB room over the offseason. And GB did not go out and get a significant upgrade at the WR2 position. Adams, if he survives the season, may average 10 or more targets weekly. And the odds are at least one of his catches this week goes for a score.
WR/TE – Cooper Kupp vs Dallas ($7,200) – Jared Goff’s favorite target.
TE – Drew Sample vs LA Chargers ($3,000) – I thought about going George Kittle here against Arizona, which has been historically putrid against TEs in recent years. But Kittle has been banged up and I ultimately decided to go the sleeper route here. The Chargers’ pass defense is good, but less unpredictable with Derwin James out. Joe Burrow will likely target Tyler Boyd in the slot and his TEs in the seam.
Flex – Zach Moss vs NY Jets ($4,800) – Sounds like Moss is going to be a significant player at the goal line and in the passing game. That’ll give him a solid opportunity to contribute beyond his pricetag.
Colts Defense @Jacksonville ($2,800) – I’m streaming the Colts in a lot of fantasy leagues this week. I’m surprised that against such a hideous roster like the Jaguars that the underrated Colts could be gotten this cheaply.
Tony:
There’s all kinds of websites that you can use to find the “value plays” for DFS, but since I all but gave up on DFS since reading about automated submissions & people developing algorithms to try and game the system, I don’t follow them. I’m purely a play-by-the-seat-of-my-pants DFS player … which is why I cashed out my one account last year and haven’t looked back. But I’ll give this a try, and see if I can make some low stakes money this year … and maybe get back into it if I can.
QB – Ben Roethlisberger @ NY Giants ($6,800) – Obviously there are QB that I expect to have better opening weeks, but trying to avoid having too much cap space invested in the QB, and at $6800 with a matchup against a questionable NYG defense, I’ll take it.
RB – David Johnson @ Kansas City ($6,700) – I’ve liked him as a value play ever since the trade went down, and I think Bill O’Brien will be out to show people why he made the deal week 1. It may still lead to him being the first coach fired this year, but he’ll give DJ every chance to make him look like a genius.
RB – Jordan Howard @ New England ($5,300) – Another guy I’ve added a fair amount in dynasty leagues this year, I do worry that in some games they will go with the hot hand, but at $5,300, with what I’ve got in mind down the line … good value.
WR – DJ Moore vs Las Vegas Raiders ($7,300) – This is where going light at RB starts to help out—he’s not projected as a top 10 WR this week, but once CMC has chewed up the Raiders defense in the running/short yardage game, DJ will produce down the field.
WR – AJ Brown @ Denver ($7,100) – The Titans will pick up where they left off in 2019 … grind it out with Derrick Henry, and get the ball to AJ Brown.
WR/TE – Bryan Edwards @ Carolina ($4,100) – One of my last two picks, once I realized where my budget was coming in for the rest of the team, I wanted to find a bargain-bin player that I think could surprise week one — and Edwards could end up being the WR1 in Las Vegas this year.
TE – Haydon Hurst vs Seattle, ($4,900) – This is the pick that really set my surprise (even to myself) FLEX play in motion—grabbing Kittle (against the defense that gave up the most fantasy points to TE last year) was intriguing, but at $7500 (and with the Cards having improved), why blow the budget? And grabbing Andrews for $6600 against the defense that gave up the second most points to TE makes some sense too … but what about a sub $5k guy that is facing the team that gave up the third fewest points to TE? The Seahawks may have improved, but Jamaal Adams is more of a box player than a TE shutdown guy and Matt Ryan proved how much he loves a good TE last year. How much will he love a potentially great one this year?
FLEX – Christian McCaffrey vs Las Vegas ($10,000) – I realized I’ve got a lot going on this game, but once I realized I had $14100 left to fill my last two spots, it made too much sense to grab the top overall player.
Colts Defense @ Jacksonville ($2,800) – If I was sure their defense would be better, I’d grab Buffalo for $2,500 against the Jets—but the Colts are a solid defense, playing a team that just waived their starting RB and starting a late round, second-year QB that they didn’t even bother to get a competitor (or mentor) for in the offseason. I hope Minshew has a great season, just for the story of it, but I’m not counting on it.
It’s the last week of multi-game NFL weekends for six-plus months, so fantasy football fans need to enjoy it, savor it, and drink it all in so it can tide you over through the offseason. I’d say the “enjoying” part would be tricky from a fantasy perspective given the defensive pedigrees of the remaining teams, but if the Jags and Steelers can both go over the Vegas total in the same game and the Vikings can exorcise 50 years of demons in 14 glorious seconds… hey, then just about anything can happen. Here’s a rundown of this week’s fantasy options as you tweak your playoff fantasy rosters and set your DFS lineups for the Conference Championships.
Photo by Keith Allison
QUARTERBACKS
Choose your narrative: Tom Brady and three bums, the 2015 Rams quarterback depth chart meeting in the NFC title game… they’re all there. Blake Bortles has the best matchup on paper, but in a battle of wits between Bortles and Bill Belichick I know where I’m pushing my chips. Brady has seen (and conquered) elite defenses before, so he’s the obvious call. And in the “Fisher Bowl”, where 7 meets 9, final numbers might depend more on each team’s respective ground games and pass protection.
1. Tom Brady, NE
2. Case Keenum, MIN
3. Blake Bortles, JAC
4. Nick Foles, PHI
RUNNING BACKS
The Patriots’ array of pass-catching running backs will be heavily employed this week against Jacksonville’s stout pass defense, but touches will depend heavily on Rex Burkhead’s availability. The Jags’ preference will be to run Leonard Fournette heavily, but the combination of Belichick schemes, game script and his health status make him a bit of a risky play. The Vikings only split their touches two ways against a strong Philly D, while the Eagles trisect (or worse) their backfield. It’ll be a week for playing hunches based on how you think the games will flow.
1. Dion Lewis, NE
2. Leonard Fournette, JAC
3. Jerick McKinnon, MIN
4. James White, NE
5. Jay Ajayi, PHI
6. Latavius Murray, MIN
7. T.J. Yeldon, JAC
8. LeGarrette Blount, PHI
9. Chris Ivory, JAC
10. Corey Clement, PHI
11. Kenjon Barner, PHI
12. Rex Burkhead, NE
WIDE RECEIVERS
It’s tough to see Brandin Cooks having much success against the Jags’ elite cornerbacks, but it wouldn’t be surprising if Danny Amendola working inside and underneath racked up another double-digit catch outing. Even if Minnesota’s offensive line doesn’t give Case Keenum a ton of time, both Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs are capable of turning short throws into big plays. Flip the script and Alshon Jeffery will have his hands full with Xavier Rhodes, but Nelson Agholor’s speed could prove problematic for Trae Waynes. I don’t anticipate Jacksonville asking Blake Bortles to win this one through the air, and even if catch-up necessitates throwing there’s hardly a reliable standout among the Jaguars’ receiving corps.
1. Adam Thielen, MIN
2. Stefon Diggs, MIN
3. Danny Amendola, NE
4. Marqise Lee, JAC
5. Brandin Cooks, NE
6. Alshon Jeffery, PHI
7. Chris Hogan, NE
8. Nelson Agholor, PHI
9. Keelan Cole, JAC
10. Jarius Wright, MIN
11. Allen Hurns, JAC
12. Torrey Smith, PHI
13. Dede Westbrook, JAC
14. Mack Hollins, PHI
15. Michael Floyd, MIN
16. Matthew Slater, NE
TIGHT ENDS
Last week Gronk scored 14.1 fantasy points (20.1 if you’re in full PPR mode); if you combine all of the remaining tight ends still alive in the playoffs, they totaled 10.6 points (21.2 PPR). Do with that information what you will.
1. Rob Gronkowski, NE
2. Zach Ertz, PHI
3. Kyle Rudolph, MIN
4. Trey Burton, PHI
5. Ben Koyack, JAC
6. Brent Celek, PHI
7. Jacob Hollister, NE
8. James O’Shaughnessy, JAC
9. Marcedes Lewis, JAC
10. David Morgan, MIN
11. Duane Allen, NE
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
This doesn’t feel like a place to look for fantasy points. In the NFC you have to expect conservative game plans for the “backup” quarterbacks against their respective elite defenses. In the AFC, the Patriots field the least productive fantasy defense but they face Blake Bortles; conversely, Jacksonville throws its defense up against Tom Brady.
1. Patriots DST, NE
2. Vikings DST, MIN
3. Eagles DST, PHI
4. Jaguars DST, JAC
PLACEKICKERS
It’s relatively easy to place Gotkowski and Lambo; you don’t beat Tom Brady kicking field goals. With the NFC kickers it may boil down to which offense is more efficient in the red zone… and which kicker is more comfortable kicking outdoors.
1. Stephen Gostkowski, NE
2. Jake Elliott, PHI
3. Kai Forbath, MIN
4. Josh Lambo, JAC
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