Playoff Picks: Championship weekend, 2021

by Tony & Andy | Jan 28, 2022 | 2021 season, NFL Picks, NFL Playoffs

After a hugely successful wild card weekend, Andy and Tony came down to Earth a bit during the divisional games last week.

But it was worth it for what might have been the best slate of playoff games in a long time.

I’m not sure the conference championship match-ups have the same appeal that the divisional round games have, but the postseason action has been sizzling so far. Maybe these games will surprise us.

Sunday, January 30

Bengals at Chiefs (-7, 54.5)

Andy: It’s interesting that the total has gone from 51 to 54.5. Not sure that’s high enough yet. Kansas City has been on fire offensively of late. And it took every ounce of it to outlast Buffalo. I think the Chiefs-Bills game should have been the conference championship. I’ve enjoyed watching Cincinnati’s run and Joe Burrow is definitely establishing himself as one of the league’s great clutch QBs. As good as that offense is, I’m not sure he can keep pace for an entire game with Pat Mahomes and his arsenal. Yet. Cincinnati is a couple offensive linemen and a couple defensive pieces away from being a really, really big threat. But this weekend, Kansas City pulls away in the end. Chiefs 38-27.

Tony: I’ve heard talk this week of the Bengals “playing with house money” because they didn’t expect their truly competitive window to open until next year. True, they still need help on the offensive line, and a few other spots–but they damn well better be thinking about this opportunity rather than “playing with house money,” because next year’s competitive window can slam shut pretty quickly. That being said, I really don’t think they have what it’s going to take to hold down Patrick Mahomes for a full 60 minutes, thereby subjecting America (and Mahomes) to more of of the ridiculous antics of his wife & brother. Chiefs 42-28.

49ers at Rams (-3.5, 46)

Andy: Well, Matthew Stafford has been getting monkeys off his back all post-season. His dominating first half against Tampa, coupled with the last second drive to stave off the Bucs’ comeback attempt, is just what he was brought in to do. The Cinderella 49ers have been impressive in “upsets” over Dallas and Green Bay, two teams whose playoff performances in recent years have shown that it is hard to get to the Super Bowl with your hands wrapped tightly around your throats. So, who wins this rematch of the 1989 NFC Championship game? The Rams are probably a little better team right now. But San Francisco has won six straight in this series and Kyle Shanahan seems to have a bit of a place in Sean McVay’s head. I’m pulling a little bit for Stafford, who I’ve always thought was pretty good even while he was serving his sentence in Detroit. I think he’s on a mission. I think he snaps the streak and claws his way to a Super Bowl. Rams 30-17.

Tony: Not going to lie, my season largely came to an official end last Saturday, when I knew I didn’t have to worry about obnoxious Packer fans here in Minnesota muddying up my social media streams about the #LastDance BS. In fact, it’s been quite amusing watching many of them this week try to convince themselves that they’re better off without Aaron Rodgers.  And other than listening to a bunch of Rodgers jock sniffing pundits on national sports media, it should be another fun offseason of Packer drama too.

Oh, there’s still an NFC Championship game to play?  I’ll go 49ers, 20-17, just to be different.

Playoff Picks: Divisional weekend, 2021

by Tony & Andy | Jan 21, 2022 | 2021 season, NFL Picks, NFL Playoffs

If these two could pick like this all season long, they’d be nationally sought after for their brilliant analysis. Or they’d be regulars in the big shot rooms in Vegas, playing high-stakes blackjack and getting paid to show up at the fancy after-hours venues.

But alas, it’s more likely this is a case of the proverbial “sun shining on a dog’s ass.” So, they’ll enjoy it while they can while most likely crashing down to Earth this weekend.

Tony might have hit five spreads too, but he inexplicably picked one game to end as a push – a gutty move, but not necessarily a profitable one. But it was still a winning week.

Now, for the greatest week of the football season – the divisional round of the playoffs – here goes.

Saturday, January 22

Bengals at Titans (-3.5, 47.5) –

Andy: I’ve been wrestling with all of these games all week, this one as much as any other. I love the direction Cincinnati is going. They’ve got a great RB who seems to be taking his game to the next level. They’ve got three good-to-great WRs, a couple of whom could be top-level stars. They’ve got a capable TE and they have Joe Burrow, who seems on a trajectory to be one of the league’s best. Then you have Tennessee, which wouldn’t have been my pick to be the top AFC seed even before Derrick Henry got hurt. And when he did, the team just kept finding ways to win. Mike Vrabel has been money after bye weeks. And, while Ryan Tannehill is no Joe Burrow, he’s just generally solid. So, do the upstart Bengals keep rolling? Or do the boring-but-fundamentally-sound Titans bring them down to Earth? All week long I’ve been on Tennessee. But as game time approaches, I’m moving toward Cincinnati exploiting a secondary that can be beaten and keeping up the roll. They’re going to have to score TDs instead of FGs in order to win. I think they will. Bengals 28-20.

Tony: Unfortunately I don’t have a lot of time this week to break down games, between hockey, work, and people whining about my ability to run fantasy football leagues two weeks after the season ends.  Don’t even have time to create the custom image for this post. Just to be different, I’ll pick the Titans here–Derrick Henry could easily be the difference, especially well rested. Titans 31-24.

49ers at Packers (-5.5, 47) –

Andy: I really, really want this game to be a repeat of the last couple times San Francisco and Green Bay met in the playoffs, when the 49ers have steamrolled the Pack. And the recipe is there – Green Bay has given up a bottom-five 4.7 yards per carry on the ground and San Francisco has guys who can run the ball. The problem is the Packers are explosive enough on offense to prevent San Francisco from having the opportunity to control the game by running all over them. I’ve been trying to come up with scenarios where I think Green Bay gets upset here. But San Francisco is coming off a short week for its second road playoff game in seven days after an emotional win over Dallas. Teams sometimes come back rusty after bye weeks, but I don’t think it matters here. Packers 30-15.

Tony: I hear a lot of talk of Aaron Rodgers being all good with the Packers now, and likely to return in 2022. All it takes is one choke job, one stupid play call, to bring that crashing back down. Unfortunately I don’t think that happens this week–Packers 34-17.

Sunday, January 23

Rams at Buccaneers (-3, 47.5) —

Andy: Matt Stafford exorcised one demon last week, getting his first postseason win in four tries. L.A. will be on short rest too, having played in the NFL’s blatant money-grab Monday-nighter. Both of these teams continue to miss key pieces. But the Rams got Cam Akers back on Monday, adding another piece to their puzzle. Tampa might get Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones back. But their losses have been mitigated to a degree by the play of Ke’Shawn Vaughn the last couple weeks. One big loss would be Tristan Wirfs, the all-pro tackle likely to miss a match-up against the Aaron Donald-led defensive line. This should be a fun one. If I was in Vegas I’m not sure I’d bet on the game. Given the lack of stakes here, I think I’m picking the upset. The Rams seem to be getting on a bit of a roll. Rams 34-31.

Tony: A -3 line in the playoffs? An absolute toss up?  Yikes. I’m going to go with the GOAT in this one. Buccaneers 27-17.

Bills at Chiefs (-1.5, 54) —

Andy: Aaaaand the Main Event. Buffalo went into Kansas City earlier this year and won. The Chiefs are playing better now than they did then. But there’s just something a little off about Kansas City this season. Even when they’ve looked good, it just hasn’t been as dominant as the last couple years. The concern with Buffalo has been that they were built more like a dome team than an outdoor-in-the-playoffs kind of team, but those concerns were at least partially allayed last week in a dominating win over New England. Josh Allen and Devin Singletary are giving Buffalo some semblance of a rushing attack. If they can get that going against the Chiefs this weekend I think they, too, can pull what would be at this point, just a small upset. Bills 34-31.

Tony: A lot of people are calling this the AFC Championship Game. A lot of people are right. Although I do wonder if whichever team wins will be in for a let down next weekend. Despite a growing annoyance with their fan base, I would like the Bills to win, just to change things up in the AFC side of the Super Bowl. Alas, I am a Vikings fan–I am used to not getting what I want when it comes to football. Chiefs win 27-24.

Playoff picks: Wild Card weekend, 2021

by Andy | Jan 14, 2022 | 2021 season, NFL Picks, NFL Playoffs

Let’s finish up the regular season first. The fourth lead change of the season was the most important one. Andy capitalized on Tony missing five of his picks, including his top guess on Indianapolis over Jacksonville, to pull off a stunning reversal on his woeful beginning to the season in alternative picks.

A solid last week wasn’t enough for Andy to overcome Tony’s huge lead in season straight-up picks, however. He gained a couple games but still lost the season by a mile.

Now to the playoffs: No alternative picks here. Just some thoughts.

Saturday, January 15

Raiders at Bengals (-5.5, o/u 48)

Andy: Of all the weekend’s games, I might be most curious about this one. You’ve got two of the league’s dregs for much of the last two decades facing off in what could be one of the more entertaining games of the week. The last time these teams met in the playoffs, Bo Jackson dislocated his hip, ending his football career. Hopefully history doesn’t repeat itself. I see lots of scoring. Like way more than the total. I see Cincinnati winning. Their offense, especially at home, is usually in shootout mode. The Raiders will score plenty too, especially with TE Darren Waller back. I think I’d stay away from actually betting on a team, but if I had to, I’d say Bengals win, Raiders cover 34-31.

Tony: I’m not sure I see this one being that interesting, or competitive. I’m going with Vegas (the city) on this one, and saying Bengals win, Bengals cover–31-17.

Patriots at Bills (-3.5, o/u 43.5)

Andy: This one, on the other hand, could be the most boring game of the weekend, at least if you are into high-scoring games. Frigid cold expected. Two tough defenses matching up. Buffalo looked like a bit of a pretender the last time they met in Buffalo, as Bill Belichick took the air out of the ball and ran all day. My guess is Buffalo forces the issue this week, finding a way to force Belichick and Mac Jones to throw to win. I don’t think they can yet. Bills win this one comfortably while the score stays well below the total. Buffalo 20 New England 10.

Tony: Not likely to be exciting, but still could be very competitive. We haven’t seen Belichick in the playoffs without Tom Brady yet–he usually finds something unexpected to throw at the other team, and while Josh Allen is a solid quarterback, he has shown he’s beatable. Add in a suspect rushing attach, and I think it’s closer than the early game–but agree on the Under. Buffalo 17, New England 13.

Sunday, January 16

Eagles at Buccaneers (-8, o/u 45.5)

Andy: Many see the Steelers/Chiefs game as the biggest mismatch of the weekend. I think this one is. Tom Brady will be in playoff mode. The Bucs have a great run defense. Jalen Hurts has never played in a playoff game before and the Eagles need to run to win. It’s been a good season for Philadelphia. I don’t think even they expected this season would result in a playoff game. But the run ends dramatically here. Bucs 30 Eagles 7.

Tony: Yeah, no disagreement here, other than you might be giving the Eagles too much credit. Bucs 34, Eagles 3.

49ers at Cowboys (-3, o/u 51)

Andy: I’ve not been a big believer in Dallas this season. Occasionally both units show up. But they haven’t been consistent. Meanwhile, San Francisco just keeps plugging along with a solid defense and a ground-and-pound offense that utilizes 17 different running backs well. Now, if the score gets close to or exceeds the total, I think the 49ers are in trouble. I think that number is overinflated. 49ers 24 Cowboys 21.

Tony: I’m not a big believer in Dallas either–but I’m not sure the 49ers are the team to burst that bubble. The Cowboys defense is overrated, but I think they’ve got the weapons to slow down Deebo Samuel, and put the game in Jimmy Garoppolo’s hands. That’s not where the 49ers want it. Cowboys 27, 49ers 20.

Steelers at Chiefs (-12.5, o/u 45.5)

Andy: Just because I think this isn’t the biggest mismatch of the weekend doesn’t mean I think it will be close. Ben Roethlisberger has had an admirable run, but he no longer has the ability to stretch the field. I don’t think he can dink-and-dunk the Steelers to a win over the rejuvenated opposition. Chiefs 30 Steelers 10.

Tony: There’s rumors that Juju Smith-Schuster is back for the game. Maybe he and Jackson Mahomes can have a contest to see which one’s social media dancing antics can enrage their opposition’s fanbase and possibly distract their team more. The difference is, Jackson Mahomes won’t be a distraction on the field, whereas Smith-Schuster just wouldn’t be any help on it. Chiefs 27, Steelers 6.

Monday, January 17

Cardinals at Rams (-4, 49)

Andy: The NFL’s latest blatant money grab is a Monday night playoff game. At least they put a compelling matchup together. I don’t know what to think in this one. Should be plenty of offense. L.A. finished playing a bit better than Arizona. They’re playing at home. Matt Stafford gets his first playoff W. Rams 30 Cardinals 23

Tony: This really might be the best matchup of the weekend. I think the biggest difference in this one might be how the Cardinals try (and fail) to stop Cooper Kupp. He had his worst outing of the season against the Cardinals on October 3rd (5 catches on 13 targets, 64 yards, zero TD). He hasn’t had a game under 92 yards receiving since, and only one game under 7 catches–and he lit the Cardinals up for 13-123-1 in December. I think Vegas hit the line on the nose–Rams 34, Cardinals 30.