Sometimes life moves a little too fast.
Update later, but here are the bets:
Tony:
$1,000 – LA Chargers (-10.5, -105)
$1,000 – New Orleans (-3.5, -105)
$2,000 – Kansas City (-4.5, +100)
$500 – Miami (+250 money line)
Andy
$600 – Miami (+6.5, -105)
$1,000 – Detroit (+2.5, -107)
$500 – Philadelphia (-3, -110)
$400 – Cincinnati (+164 money line)
If it’s double-or-nothing, Andy is catching up. Three weeks in, he’s built a six-game lead over Tony. He’s fairly certain he’ll start overthinking things soon, but he will enjoy it while he can.
Here are the standings:
| Week 3 | Andy 9-7 |
| Season | Andy 26-20-2 |
And here are the picks: (more…)
Our picks are off to a typically terrible start. … Or at least I assume that’s true. We’ll get to that point asap. In the meantime, here are our picks for the week.
Andy
$1,000 – Philadelphia (-7, -110) vs Indianapolis – This will probably be wrong. Carson Wentz will be rusty in his comeback and the Eagles will miss Jay Ajayi. But I’m going with Philly riding the emotions of his return and Corey Clement showing he’s the best RB on the team. Oh, and the Colts aren’t that good.
$600 – Denver (+6, -110) at Baltimore – I do think the Ravens win this game, but I’m not really sure they are a touchdown better than Denver. I’ll take this in a Maryland minute.
$500 – New Orleans at Atlanta (Under 53.5) – This almost always feels like one of those games where the over makes sense, but eight of the last 11 times these teams have played, it’s gone under the number. Of course, that means nothing, but my bets are typically terrible, so my logic might as well be too.
Upset of the week: $500 – Cincinnati (+130 money line) at Carolina – Andy Dalton typically plays better on the road than at home and the Panthers are missing most of their offensive line. The Bengals might actually not be that bad this year, too. This wouldn’t be a huge upset, but there are enough mismatches this week that I wouldn’t touch with a 10-foot pole that this is as good as I want to do.
Tony
$1,000 – Miami (-3, +100) over Oakland – I can’t believe I’m trusting Miami here…well, let’s be fair–I’m not. I’m trusting the Raiders, who generally don’t seem to travel east well anyway, to live up to my predictions for Jon Gruden’s return season. Don’t expect a lot of bets on the Raiders, even with points this season.
$1,000 – Kansas City (-6, -105) over San Francisco – In Kansas City, with the way the Chiefs have looked, I’m surprised this line isn’t a little higher–it opened at 4.5, and I’ll gladly take the online payout of -105 here, as even with a defense that can be leaky, unless Patrick Mahomes starts to fall back to Earth dramatically this week, they should win by at least 9.
$1,000 – Chicago (-6, -102) over Arizona – My only real hesitation here was the fact that it’s in Arizona, but the Cardinals have looked terrible so far this year–it wouldn’t shock me if they start to think about turning to Sam Rosen, given the early generally positive reviews on Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold–and that might throw this one up in the air a bit. If Khalil Mack keeps it up, they may have no choice but to turn to Rosen. And even though Mitch Trubisky hasn’t looked like a world beater, Jordan Howard and Allen Robinson should be enough to power the Bears to at least a touchdown victory on the road.
Upset of the Week: $500 – LA Chargers (+260 moneyline) at LA Rams – Yes, the Rams have looked good–but they’ve also beaten up on the Raiders and Cardinals. The Chargers are another kind of animal, four deep at WR, two deep at RB, and with a defense that appears solid enough to potentially upset the Rams, who might be looking ahead to Minnesota. I’d maybe take the Chargers and the points, but the payouts aren’t great, so I’ll take the chance at +260.
Two questions pop into mind: Did Andy win two weeks in a row at any point last season? And does Andy still owe Tony lunch or is this a double-or-nothing proposition?
Andy pulled off an 8-7-1 record in a week of dreadful picking. It’d be nice if there were some obvious patterns developing, but so far it feels a lot like subterfuge. Patrick Mahomes breaking TD passing records? Ryan Fitzpatrick setting the league on fire? Do we believe it?
Here are the standings:
| Week 2 | Andy 8-7-1 |
| Season | Andy 17-13-2 |
Here are the picks for week three.
1) Tony: Vikings over Bills – I’ll probably regret picking the home town team after they break my heart again…although at least if they lose to the Bills, I don’t have to worry about playoff heartbreak anymore…right?
2) Andy: Rams over Chargers – The Chargers just keep being the Chargers. Think they’re going to lose, they play well. Think they’re going to win … well, they beat Buffalo last week, which was almost inevitable, but I can’t get the Kansas City game in week one or most of the last two decades out of my head.
3) Andy: Eagles over Colts – Carson Wentz is back. He may be rusty, but Philadelphia is just clearly the better team in this game.
4) Tony: Texans over Giants – This is less about the Texans, and more about the Giants.
5) Andy: Patriots over Lions – The Lions are a dumpster fire. And while it seems like things may be heading in a bit of a downward direction for New England, it’s hard to envision Bill Belichick losing to one of his old proteges.
6) Tony: Bears over Cardinals – Khalil Mack may kill Sam Bradford.
7) Andy: Packers over Redskins – After week one I was ready to climb on the Washington bandwagon. Turns out the answer IS that the Cardinals are just that bad.
8) Tony: Chiefs over 49ers – San Francisco has looked decent. Kansas City has looked phenomenal. Not sure the defense can win them a game if/when the offense sputters, but so far, it hasn’t.
9) Andy: Jaguars over Titans – Jacksonville looks like it might be the next powerhouse in the AFC. Tennessee … still has some significant work to do.
10) Tony: Panthers over Bengals – I don’t remember the logic I had in picking this game here…not a good sign.
11) Andy: Ravens over Broncos – Went with the home team here and I don’t really feel good about it. Neither team has been particularly good so far.
12) Tony: Dolphins over Raiders – The Dolphins haven’t looked absolutely terrible, which means they have a step up on the Raiders. Plus, those west coast teams travelling east…unless it’s to Buffalo.
13) Andy: Steelers over Buccaneers – Uggh.
14) Tony: NY Jets over Browns – (Updating this post with comments Thursday night…) I swear I took the Browns? I would have, if I’d known that Tyrod Taylor was going to get knocked out…that storyline had Hue Jackson written all over it.
15) Andy: Seahawks over Cowboys – The coin landed on heads.
16) Tony: Falcons over Saints – The coin landed on Tails?
Straight up picks so far:
| Andy | Tony | |
| Week 2 | ||
| Total |
And the picks:
| Andy’s picks | Tony’s picks |
| Vikings | Vikings |
| Rams | Rams |
| Eagles | Eagles |
| Texans | Texans |
| Patriots | Patriots |
| Bears | Bears |
| Packers | Packers |
| Chiefs | Chiefs |
| Jaguars | Jaguars |
| Panthers | Panthers |
| Ravens | Broncos |
| Raiders | Dolphins |
| Steelers | Buccaneers |
| Browns | Jets |
| Seahawks | Cowboys |
| Saints | Falcons |
Update for week 1 will be coming soon…
Andy:
$800 – Washington (-5.5, -110) vs Indianapolis — Probably a fool’s bet, but I was impressed with Alex Smith’s version of the Redskins last week.
$800 – Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5, -110) at Buffalo — Wait, this line has gone down from -9? Why? Josh Allen? I’m not convinced the Bills are really even trying to win this year.
$500 – Philadelphia (-3, -110) at Tampa Bay — Nobody is taking the Bucs lightly this week. The Eagles defense won’t give up 40-plus.
$500 – Carolina (+225 money line) at Atlanta — I don’t get the love for the Falcons here. They looked hideous in the red zone again in week one and they lost a couple keys off their defense. Panthers could easily take this one.
Tony:
$1,500 – Philadelphia (-3.5, +100) at Tampa Bay — I’m surprised the line hasn’t moved more here, and even more surprised that some of the online books are putting it at +100 for the extra half point.
$1,000 – Los Angeles Rams (-13, -105) vs Arizona — Rams at home with Todd Gurley, facing the team that surrendered the most rushing yards in week 1. The line is trending up–I’m seeing it at -13.5 in some spots (a couple still at 12.5, too), but I’ll give the 13 for the -105 vs -110 payout.
$1,000 – Kansas City @ Pittsburgh: Over 52 (-108) – Yes, it’s a high number for Total Points, but the Steelers can put up points (last week’s 21 against the Browns was an anomaly, given the weather), and the Chiefs defense isn’t great–but their offense is.
$800 – Carolina (+220 money line) at Atlanta – I think Andy made the right call here, and the payout appears to be moving down–I had to scrounge to find the +220 payout.
In 2017, it took Andy weeks to get a win in our Alternative Picks contest–in 2018, thanks to the Steelers, he got his first win in week 1–although much like the Browns breaking their losing streak, it’s more of not a loss than it is a win, since he only managed to go 8-7-1. Neither of us picked particularly well, but we’ll try to improve week 2.
| Week 1 | Andy 8-7-1 |
| Season total | Andy 8-7-1 |
1) Tony: Rams over Cardinals – Kind of weird getting to choose whether to go first or second and third…but as bad as the Bills are, I’m not excited about the Chargers traveling east, so I’ll grab the one game I feel the best about.
2) Andy: Chargers over Bills
3) Andy: Saints over Browns
4) Tony: Broncos over Raiders – Andy called this a ballsy pick this early–frankly, this week they all are. But I like Denver at home, and trust in Jon Gruden’s ability to coach like it’s 2002.
5) Andy: Redskins over Colts
6) Tony: Eagles over Buccaneers – The Bucs won big in week 1–if they can beat the Eagles, will I be A) impressed, B) happy, or C) surprised? The answer is D), All of the Above.
7) Andy: 49ers over Lions
8) Tony: Steelers over Chiefs – No idea here, but I can’t see the Steelers losing at home. Unless Ben Roethlisberger is hurt worse than anyone knows, then all bets are off.
9) Andy: Patriots over Jaguars
10) Tony: Bengals over Ravens – I think this one comes down to which running back can grind more clock, and I like Mixon here better than Collins.
11) Andy: Vikings over Packers
12) Tony: Texans over Titans – Neither team looked that good in week 1, but I trust the Texans to rebound more than the Titans.
13) Andy: Seahawks over Bears
14) Tony: Giants over Cowboys – On ESPN this morning, they speculated that the loser of this game loses the division. Not sure that winning this game proves much, though.
15) Andy: Jets over Dolphins
16) Tony: Panthers over Falcons – Definition of a toss up game. I took the Panthers because…the coin landed on heads.
Straight up, our picks look like:
| Andy | Tony |
| Rams | Rams |
| Chargers | Chargers |
| Saints | Saints |
| Raiders | Broncos |
| Redskins | Redskins |
| Eagles | Eagles |
| 49ers | 49ers |
| Chiefs | Steelers |
| Patriots | Patriots |
| Bengals | Bengals |
| Vikings | Vikings |
| Texans | Texans |
| Seahawks | Seahawks |
| Giants | Giants |
| Jets | Jets |
| Falcons | Panthers |
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I guess what I am saying Andy P is that transparency is great, just doubt that it improves the results
So what do you mean where you say transparency?
Paul I don’t know what are you trying to say
Let’s say we had a lot more transparency during class of 2025 election - would it have changed outcome?
Paul what do you mean it doesn’t improves outcome