NFL Best Bets: Week 17 – 2012

by | Dec 29, 2012 | 2012 season, NFL Gambling

As we’ve mentioned time and time again, our bets have sucked all season. We maybe had a two or three week stretch where it looked like things were coming around, but for the most part it’s a good thing our time in Vegas this season was limited to one three night stretch for Andy.

That said, we both did pretty well last week, recovering if only briefly from terrible stretches, posting 3-1 marks in week 16. That improves Andy’s record to 29-34-1. Tony rebounds from back-to-back 0-4 weeks, improving his season record to 27-37.

As we wrap up the regular season, here are our bets for week 17. Use these at your own risk:

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Are the Vikings actually good?

by | Dec 28, 2012 | 2012 season, NFL Random Thoughts

I had a successful run for a brief few games during the middle of this season betting and picking against my hometown team, the Minnesota Vikings. I picked up that strategy in 2010, when gambling against the purple was extremely profitable during a lost 3-13 season.

For the most part this year, however, Minnesota has been surprisingly solid. The defense, with the addition of safety Harrison Smith, is much improved. Adrian Peterson has had a monster season. And Christian Ponder has been maddeningly inconsistent, but has shown, at times, flashes that he might not be a complete dud.

After Sunday’s dismantling of Houston – the second time this season the seemingly outmanned Vikings have physically dominated a supposedly far superior foe – I texted my brother and asked: “Are the Vikings actually good?”

His response: “Been trying to figure that out for some time now myself. Suspect Texans aren’t quite as good as earlier thought, but Vikings are better than I gave them credit for.”

That makes two of us. We went on to agree that this team has the talent to potentially stick with any team on a good day and the shortcomings where on a bad one it could lose to any dreg of a team. But given last season and the predictions going in – few “experts” had the Vikings winning six games this year and I would have thought that a reasonable level of improvement myself back on opening day – how has this team improved to the point where it can be considered a legitimate playoff contender? (more…)

NFL Picks, 2012 season, Week 17

by | Dec 26, 2012 | 2012 season, NFL Picks

With a convincing win over Detroit on Saturday night, the Atlanta Falcons took another step toward a championship by locking up home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.

So why isn’t anyone buying Atlanta? The 13-2 Falcons have been dominant against teams they should beat this season, but have not played the most difficult of schedules. That’s not their fault – you can only play the teams they tell you to play. But there’s still the lingering feeling stemming from blowout losses in playoff games the last two seasons.

Greg Huseth, senior editor and staff writer for Blogging Dirty, says those two games have this team better prepared for what it takes to have success in the playoffs.

“The Falcons have been embarrassed the last two seasons in the playoffs and I think that has made them more mentally tough,” he says. “They also overlooked a bad Carolina Panthers team in Week 14 and got obliterated. Those playoff losses, and the more recent loss to Carolina, have taught them not to overlook any aspect of the game and that if they don’t execute, it won’t matter that they’re the number one seed in the NFC.”

The Falcons are going to have a challenging road in the postseason, even if they are playing at home. San Francisco and Seattle look to be peaking and Green Bay also is playing well. But it did look to me like Atlanta did take its game up a notch against Detroit, so maybe they are poised for a better showing.

Huseth joined us as our guest blogger for the regular season’s final week. Last week’s guest celebrity blogger was Keith Myers from 12th Man Rising. He went 12-4, which was good for second place last week. He beat Tony, who went 9-7. Andy hit on a bunch of upsets, which led to a 14-2 week that sprung him to a two-game lead for the season.

  Week 16 Season
Andy 14-2 153-86-1
Tony 9-7 151-88-1
Celebrity bloggers 12-4 148-91-1

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2012-2013 College Bowl Betting

by | Dec 22, 2012 | 2012 season, College Football, NCAA Gambling

With our NFL Bets being so terribly this season, I thought we should take a stab at something different this season, and place some bets on some of the top college games. So we pulled up some of the college bowl game lines, and away we go.

To make things a little more interesting:

  • We each get to make 9 bets from a select list of Bowl games
  • We have a theoretical budget of $2,500 to spend
  • We have to place a minimum bet of $100 on any game we choose to bet on
  • We must spend the full budget
  • We must bet on the Alabama/ND game, the Kansas St/Oregon game, the Texas A&M/Oklahoma game, the Wisconsin/Stanford game, the Nebraska/Georgia game, and the Minnesota/Texas Tech game.

Our bets:

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NFL Picks, 2012 Season, Week 16

by | Dec 20, 2012 | 2012 season, NFL Picks

The NFL Rookie of the Year discussions to this point have primarily centered on RGIII and Andrew Luck. Those two certainly have shown that they’ll be forces opposing defenses will have to reckon with for years to come. In a traditional season, however, the work Russell Wilson has done in bringing the Seattle Seahawks to prominence this season would be in the mix as well.

Wilson, Marshawn Lynch and a hard-hitting defense have combined to put Seattle squarely in the playoff mix. With a pair of 50-point showings the last two weeks, the team is peaking at the right time, too.

Keith Myers, editor and lead writer for 12th Man Rising, acknowledges that injuries and suspensions make this week’s divisional tilt with the 49ers a challenge.

“The Seahawks likely go into this week’s game against San Francisco with their fifth and sixth string cornerbacks again playing very large rolls for the defense,” he says. “That’s not a recipe for success once the playoffs begin. Throw in significant injuries to two starting defensive linemen and there’s some concern when the opponents are better than the Cardinals and Bills.”

Still, he adds that this team is better than most people think and that it is going to be a tough out once the playoffs begin.

“The way the Seahawks’ offense is clicking right now, if they can get healthy on defense before the playoffs start, then there’s no team they can’t beat,” Myers says. “They may not win three straight road games to get to the Super bowl, but they’ll go into every game with a real chance of winning.”

This team has shown improvements throughout the last two seasons. With the steady play at quarterback both teams are getting from their youngsters, I think the 49ers and Seahawks are primed to create a rivalry for supremacy in the NFC West, not just this year, but for years to come.

Myers joined us as this week’s guest game picker. Last week’s guest blogger, Kim Constantinesco, not only has the best name of anyone who has ever participated in this segment. The senior editor for Predominantly Orange stuck with my brother pick for pick in week 15. Despite some close games decided in the last seconds, Constantinesco and Tony finished the week 9-7.

This allowed Andy to pick up a game in the standings, as the blind squirrel I’ve had doing my picks the last couple weeks found the nut 10 times. Tony’s got a three game lead over me and, due to a couple rough weeks in the middle of the season, the celebrity guest game picking bloggers are currently six back of the leader with two weeks to play. (more…)

NFL Best Bets: Week 16 – 2012

by | Dec 20, 2012 | 2012 season, NFL Gambling

I’m not sure if my brother feels this way, but for me,  most seasons, there usually is a point where I feel like I’ve started to feel like I’m at least getting a hint for which teams are good, which are bad, which know how to go for the jugular and which are prone to bad upsets.

Not this year. I don’t have a flippin’ clue. It played out again last week in a 1-3 mark that dropped my best bets to 26-33-1 for the season. That sounds bad – and it is terrible. But it’s still actually ahead of my brother, who went 0-4 and hasn’t made a correct bet in this segment since week 14.

We are committed to playing this out for the season, but if we were really playing this out in Vegas, we’d either have been committed or we’d have been left lying in an alley with our legs broken multiple times.

On that upbeat note, happy holidays and here are our bets. (more…)