I was shocked when I heard news yesterday about Bill Polian—not that he had been fired, but that apparently Twitter was blowing up with Vikings fans & local sports media wanting to quickly make a move to bring him in as the voice of authority for the team.  Digging deeper showed that many other media & fan bases, including Chicago, Oakland, and even Dallas were clamoring over the opportunity to hire a “proven commodity” in Polian.

But they all seem to be overlooking one significant factor – Bill Polian’s track record is generally one of building teams that are great in the regular season, then failing in the playoffs, or ultimately in the big game itself. Essentially he is to football exactly what the local media uses in Minnesota ridicule the Minnesota Twins – regular season success followed by postseason failure.

Additionally, though he has had success, he’s coming off of a tenure in Indianapolis where the team has been ultra-competitive, but has not cashed in to its utmost potential despite employing one of the best quarterbacks of all time. This has largely been due to Polian’s inability to complement a top-notch offense with a good defense, in part, due to his unwillingness to focus on and inability to consistently draft competent players – particularly in recent years.

The pundits are generally giving him credit for building three successful franchises:
•    Architecting the Buffalo Bills team that went to (and lost) four consecutive Super Bowls
•    Building from scratch a Carolina Panthers team that went to the NFC Championship game in their second season
•    Taking the perennial loser Indianapolis Colts to the promised land with their Super Bowl XLI win
I get it—lots of successful seasons, and seven Super Bowls. Nobody is denying that he has had some successes. But all that has netted one Super Bowl victory, and three franchises that were (or appear to be) absolutely decimated when Polian departed.

Let’s look at each of his stops a little bit more closely, with some help in particular from Polian’s Wikipedia page (which appears to have been written by his agent).

Polian was promoted to General Manager of the Bills after playing an “instrumental” role in the signing of first overall pick from 1985, Hall of Famer Bruce Smith.  Not drafting, but signing. And his involvement in that signing (as Director of Pro Personnel) was largely due to general manager Terry Bledsoe’s heart attack. Also drafted in 1985, before Polian was GM were quarterback Frank Reich and likely future Hall of Fame wide receiver Andre Reed.

In 1986, he was able to “convince” 1983 top pick Jim Kelly to join the team from the USFL – something that couldn’t have been particularly difficult to do since the USFL had folded and the Bills owned his rights. To his credit, Polian did also grab Kent Hull from the USFL, although 10 teams were interested in Hull, and he admitted that the only reason he picked the Bills was because their starting center had recently been seriously injured, according to the New York Times link.

He also added first round picks Ronnie Harmon (who joined the Bills as a role player before having a decent career with the Chargers) and Will Wolford, who had an okay run with the Bills (and perhaps not too coincidentally is now the Colts color analyst), along with 12 guys that even as a moderate Bills fan from their Super Bowl run, I’ve never heard of (all subsequent draft information for Buffalo can be found at databasefootball.com).

In 1987, this “skill as a GM was apparent” as he moved from third overall in the draft to eighth, also picking up the 36th pick overall, which was then traded to Tampa Bay in a deal for the 29th pick (then the first pick in Round 2). The eighth pick was used on Shane Conlan, the 29th on Nate Odomes. Those guys were components to the four-year Super Bowl run and Pro Bowlers (Conlan three times, Odomes twice).

But neither was an amazing talent. Conlan was seemingly not worth the eighth pick – it was not a stellar draft class, but he was drafted one spot ahead of Jerome Brown (who was on his way to a potential Hall of Fame career before being tragically killed in a car crash) and two spots ahead of Rod Woodson (the only Hall of Famer in that draft to date). He also drafted a few other role players who contributed to the Super Bowl teams, such as Keith McKeller, Leon Seals and Jamie Mueller.

Also notable in 1987, he was involved in the Eric Dickerson trade, which sent RB Greg Bell (who had been a Pro Bowler in his rookie year in 1984, before getting hurt in 1986–and who would become the 1988 AP Comeback Player of the Year while rushing for 1,200 yards and leading the NFL with 18 total TDs, following it up with a league leading 15 rushing TDs in 1989), the Bills 1988 first round pick, and their 1989 first and second round picks to the Los Angeles Rams, to receive the rights to then unsigned third overall pick Cornelius Bennett.

Bennett, admittedly one of my favorite players of the era, was definitely a key component to the Super Bowl run, although again not having what I would consider a Hall of Fame career.  And one has to wonder what may have been done with those picks — although the Rams squandered them. With Polian’s track record, it is very possible that the Bills would not have found what they needed to actually win one of those Super Bowls, unless they used a high pick on a kicker to replace Scott Norwood.

In 1988, without a first round pick, he made what was probably the best draft pick of his career – definitely of his time in Buffalo – in selecting Thurman Thomas, who eventually made it to the Hall of Fame. After that, the most notable pick was 8th rounder Jeff Wright.

In 1989, he made one notable selection – 3rd rounder Don Beebe. His drafts from 1990, 1991 and 1992 featured several somewhat recognizable names from those Super Bowl teams, but no stars that helped them over the top. Polian was fired after the Bills lost the third of the four Super Bowls, despite being named NFL Executive of the Year in 1988 and 1991, not because he didn’t do a good job, but apparently because he didn’t get along with team treasurer Jeff Littman, according to the Polian Wikipedia profile.

The Bills did make it to (and lose) their fourth consecutive Super Bowl the year after Polian left, before turning into a mediocre team finished 7-9 in 1994, won a weak division in 1995 advancing to the divisional round of the playoffs (the last year they won a playoff game), and wildcard finishes in 1996, 1998 and 1999.

His time in Carolina from 1994 through 1997 requires much less analysis. After spending a year working in the league office for Paul Tagliabue (helping craft the league’s salary cap and free agency rules), the Panthers hired him in 1994 to prepare for their 1995 entry to the league. He “tried to create the quickest Super Bowl winner in history”–and did build a team that went 12-4 in its second year and made it to the NFC Championship game, after a 7-9 first season. In 1997, they fell back to 7-9, and Polian took a promotion with the Colts.

Often ignored by those dazzled by Polian’s brilliance – the Panthers were even worse in 1998, going 4-12. They turned around briefly in 1999 under first-year coach George Seifert, before continuing their slide, finally bottoming out in 2001 with a 1-15 record.

Also ignored – three more terrible drafts in Carolina, highlighted by the selection of Kerry Collins fifth overall in their inaugural draft, after trading down – a move that almost backfired (though in fairness, they did take second-rounder Mushin Muhammad in 1996).

Other draft highlights:
•    1995: Tyrone Poole, first round
•    1995: Blake Brockermeyer, first round
•    1996: Tim Biakabatuka, first round
•    1997: Rae Carruth, first round

Given that it’s 3:30am and I’ve just spent two-plus hours of my life analyzing Polian, I’m going to keep the Colts analysis shorter, but here are some highlights I pulled out from various Wikipedia pages, Pro-Football-Reference.com pages and the Colts draft history at databasefootball.com:

•    1998: Manages to make what turned out to be a no-brainer pick into a difficult decision by nearly taking Ryan Leaf over Peyton Manning. One could argue that had the Colts gone Leaf over Manning, both of their careers would have turned out differently–although I don’t think even Ryan Leaf believes that one. Rest of the draft pretty much sucks.

•    1998: Hires son Chris as Director of Player Personnel. Later promoted to Vice-President of Football Operations and general manager, then fired with Bill in 2012. Now apparently part of a package deal, as apparently the only way he’ll get a job at that level again? Purely speculation on my part.

•    1998: Replaced Lindy Infante as coach with Jim Mora. Not a terrible decision, but apparently Polian potentially wanted to hire Nick Saban.

•    1999: Trades Hall of Fame running back Marshall Faulk to St. Louis Rams for 2nd and 5th round picks–drafts Edgerrin James as replacement, surprising many by passing on Ricky Williams (and presumably passing on the chance to rake the New Orleans Saints over the coals for picks in the process?). Colts finish 13-3, but lose in the first round of the playoffs at home to the Tennessee Titans. Faulk leads the Rams to the Super Bowl title, becomes second player ever to surpass 1,000 yards rushing and receiving in the same season, and wins the NFL Offensive Player of the Year award. He would go on to win that award twice more, set a record for rushing TDs in a season, and win the NFL MVP in 2000. But hey, the Colts got Mike Peterson and Brad Scioli for him.

•    1999: Other than James, Peterson and Scioli (who was average at best), draft pretty much sucks.

•    2000: Draft highlighted by 2nd rounder Marcus Washington, a solid LB they couldn’t re-sign after 2003 season, at least in part due to cost of signing Peyton Manning—admittedly, a move almost any personnel person would have to make in today’s NFL salary cap era, although one also might wonder why an NFL executive as talented as Polian couldn’t convince Manning to take less to keep core defensive talent with the team. Manning has proven flexible in restructuring his deals, but not to the extent of Tom Brady.

•    2001: Fires Mora, apparently still wants to hire Saban. Forced to hire Tony Dungy by owner Jim Irsay.

•    2001: After acknowledging in firing Mora that the team needed defensive help, drafts Reggie Wayne in the first round. Wayne has been a great player, but the defense continues to suffer. Rest of the draft features starting offensive linemen Ryan Diem and Rick DeMulling, and mid-level (at best) defenders Idrees Bashir and Cory Bird. Forgive me for not bothering to look them up.

•    2002: Makes what I would argue might have been his best first-round pick ever, bucking conventional wisdom and selecting defensive end Dwight Freeney, considered by many to be too small to play that position in the NFL. Freeney has had a Hall of Fame caliber career. Rest of the draft? Typical Polian.

•    2003: Picks up Robert Mathis (5th round) and Cato June (6th round) in two of his best late round steals. Added another offensive weapon in the first round with TE Dallas Clark.  Rest of the draft…meh.

•    2003-2004: “convinced the competition committee and the leagues head of officiating Mike Pereira to issue a crackdown on illegal contact and defensive holding in the secondary, claiming that the Colts receivers had been roughed up illegally by the Patriots defensive backs without penalty during the [2003 AFC] Championship game [from Wikipedia]. So we have Polian to blame for today’s passing games, where refs throw excessive flags and wide receivers complain about being breathed on too harshly. OK, can’t blame him for some WRs being pansies.

•    2004: Adds defensive help in Bob Sanders, who was always a game changer. In games he played. The problem was there weren’t many.  Since playing 15 games in 2007, Sanders has been injured for all but 11 of 64 games. Another playoff loss to the Patriots.

•    2005: Possibly the best team they had, finishing 14-2, despite drafting Marlin Jackson in the first round. Jackson and, perhaps, fellow cornerback Kelvin Hayden, were perhaps the highlights of that draft.  Follow it up with a divisional round loss to the Steelers.

•    2006: Polian lets Edgerrin James leave, drafts Joseph Addai as a replacement (the only notable draft choice). Addai has a solid rookie year (and solid 2nd year) before starting to tail off due to injuries. James has comparable – arguably better – stats in his two years in Arizona, but the decision is lauded because…

•    2007 (2006 season): POLIAN FINALLY LEADS COLTS TO SUPER BOWL VICTORY.  Or maybe it was Peyton Manning that led them.  Or Tony Dungy. And we’ll just ignore that the Chicago Bears were possibly the worst (and luckiest) 13-3 team in NFL history that year, and that the NFC in general was just terrible. I mean, Rex Grossman led this team to 13-3, with a 54 percent completion rate and a 23-20 TD-INT ratio, yet they were the #1 seed in the NFC by a three-game margin. The fact that the Colts were only favored by seven still amazes me.

•    2007-2011: Continued failure at drafting, continued failure at preparing for the end of the Manning era, culminating in the 2-14 record for 2011 when Manning finally missed time due to injury, and ultimately what led to the Polian’s being fired, and me spending three hours of my night researching this crap, hopefully convincing some local fans (in Minnesota–not so much Chicago or other cities) to not root for this guy to get hired.

Is this a complete picture? Obviously not.  I largely ignored the role of free agency in the building of the Panthers and the Colts – but it’s safe to say, Polian largely screwed that up too, in my opinion, signing too many veterans with his “win now to get me a new job” mindset in Carolina (and then let impact guys like Kevin Greene go elsewhere, when they still had productive years left), and has spent most of his tenure in Indianapolis finding ways to pay Peyton Manning so much money that he continually has failed to add supporting cast around him, while other quarterbacks (most notably Colts nemesis Tom Brady) has taken less than market value to ensure the long-term viability of the franchise.

Also, by many accounts, the Polians have a terrible reputation amongst fans, media and coaching circles, and son Chris Polian garnered much of the blame for the toxic situation apparently created during this 2011 season.

The bottom line is this: Bill Polian has had a lot of success as a personnel man in the NFL. But that has been accompanied by a lot of baggage in terms of failed drafts and controversy. Especially in recent years, his drafts and other personnel moves have left a Colts team operated by one of the league’s all-time great quarterbacks short of being able to field a complete team, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. While his successes cannot be ignored, the signs that he may be a former personnel superstar whose best days are behind him should not be left uninvestigated either.

Any team looking at Polian as the potential savior to their franchise—and any fan base clamoring for their team to do so—would do well to take note of the entire package before handing over the reins, and make sure they feel that the long potential long-term consequences are worth the short possible headaches.