Bet the Mortgage: NFL Week 3, 2019

Well, Tony had a good week. For the first time in at least 317 weeks, a Zoneblitz bettor had an undefeated week. Oh, yeah, Andy won some hypothetical pocket change too. It’s a bit odd here, where the normally self-indulgent segment has actually, through two weeks, proven a little bit profitable.

Andy

Well, I’m down $75 for the season, which is almost like a tie, which is like … well, never mind. I’m happy Tony had a good week and I’m happy I’ve been close to having some good weeks, but come on. Breaking even is boring. Here we go.

$1,500 – Kansas City (-6, -105) vs Baltimore – The Ravens have beaten up on the Dolphins and hung on to squeak by Arizona. Lamar Jackson is looking good, but the Chiefs are the first real test of the season for Baltimore. I don’t think they can keep up.

$800 – Green Bay (-7.5, -105) vs Denver – Joe Flacco looks old. And bored. The Broncos have been bad. Green Bay looks just good enough on offense and much better on defense this season. This could be a letdown after a couple big divisional wins to start the year, but I’m not betting on it.

$800 – Philadelphia (-5.5, -110) vs Detroit – This game opened at -8.5, but the number has gone significantly toward Detroit. Why? The Eagles stumbled on the road against a motivated Atlanta team last week, but I don’t see much indication that Detroit is going to make a game of this game on the road.

$300 – Oakland (+345 money line) at Minnesota – Kirk Cousins usually plays well under the covered roof of a noon-time kickoff. So, this may be a long-shot. But the Raiders’ season has already been bizarre. The Antonio Brown saga seems to have left them with a chip on their shoulder that showed up in an opening week win against Denver and a hot start against Kansas City. They lost to the Chiefs, but Kansas City might win the Super Bowl. Minnesota isn’t that good. And this would be a lot less surprising than the shellacking Buffalo handed them in a similar situation last season.

Tony

Huh, I didn’t even look at how I was doing after week 1, and wouldn’t have known this week if Andy hadn’t told me–maybe completely ignoring my bets is the best way to go about this.

$500 – Dallas (-23, +105) at Miami – I’m not going crazy on the amount of the bet, with a 23 point spread–but there’s nothing so far this season that makes me think Miami will cover a spread at all.

$1,000 – Seattle (-4.5, -105) vs New Orleans – I’m not sure how this one opened with New Orleans as a two point favorite…unless it opened before Drew Brees hurt his hand. Not sure that Teddy Bridgewater can go on the road and hang with Russell Wilson, even if the Saints are probably the better overall team.

$1,000 – Baltimore at Kansas City: Over 52 (-110) – I found one book with it at -109, but I’ll keep it simple for the sake of Andy doing math. If the total line stays under 60 on this game, I’m sticking with the over.

$500 – Pittsburgh (+255 money line) at San Francisco – I don’t love Mason Rudolph’s chances, but they’re better than Joe Flacco’s chances of beating Green Bay, so I’ll take this upset. The 49ers still have a lot to prove, and Pittsburgh does still have James Conner, Juju Smith-Schuster and enough talent on defense to turn the tide.