Bet the Mortgage: Week 15, 2013 NFL Best Bets

Getting bets up last second, and there’s been lots up in the air that should impact bets this week–Adrian Peterson and Toby Gerhart in Minnesota, Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay and the Josh McCown/Jay Cutler debate to name a few.

This season has become largely lost since Andy made me start gambling by the rules–I’ve gone from slightly ahead to in a big hole, similar to my life at the blackjack table. The only saving grace is my lead on Andy, despite his being the hotter hand in the sports book.

Andy’s Bets:

Got 2.5 out of four correct last week. Gaining some ground on my brother, who’s been throwing his pretend money around like it’s Monopoly money the last few weeks. Feeling a little lucky right now. What the hell. There aren’t many games I like this time around, but I’m going to find a way to put half my bankroll on the line. Check back next week to see how this one plays out.

$750 – Baltimore (+6, -110) at Detroit – Most of the time this season when I’ve claimed to be confused by a line, I’ve bet my instincts … and gotten the crap kicked out of me. But I’m going to do it again. The Ravens aren’t exactly burning up the league this season, but Detroit has lost three of four and seems to be doing everything in its power to get Jim Schwartz fired by letting Chicago and Green Bay hang in a race they should have been out of weeks ago. I don’t know that Baltimore wins, but I’m guessing Joe Flacco, Torrey Smith and the recently recovered hip dislocatee Dennis Pitta give them a game and keep it within a score.

$1,000 – Philadelphia at Minnesota: (Over 51, -110) – My brother has a rule he generally follows that prevents him from betting for or against our home team, the Vikings. I understand why. We’re both usually wrong. But I’m going against it this week. Why? Because once upon a time, when Minnesota played at the Metrodome, its defense would up its game. Those days are but a memory. Opponents have scored 31, 35, 44, 27 and 20 in five games in Minneapolis. The red-hot Eagles come to town with Xavier Rhodes out and Harrison Smith maybe coming back part-time from an injury. And the Vikes can’t stop the run either. If Philly can get to 35 – and I don’t think that’s a stretch at all – Matt Cassel should be able to take it the rest of the way to the over pretty easily.

$1,000 – Jacksonville (+1, Even) vs Buffalo – Okay, what am I missing here again? Yes, the Jags lost their first eight games. But they’ve won four of their last five, covering the spread in those four wins, as well. Buffalo has lost five of six, failing to cover the spread in each of those five losses. Neither of these teams are any good, but at this late date in the season, I’ll take the one playing like it gives a damn over the one counting down the days until the offseason any day.

$300 – Upset of the Week – Washington (Moneyline +260) at Atlanta – The QB and the coach reportedly haven’t been getting along and the coach decided this week to bench RGIII. Who knows what’s going on in Washington. I had planned to go with a different game here, but this sleepwalking bunch may be awakened by having another voice calling the plays. It’s not like Atlanta’s really much better. This is our Game of the Weak, but Mike Shanahan may have found a way to get a strong performance from his team. Or they’ll continue tanking like dogs. … Much like my bankroll has been doing all season anyway.

Tony’s Bets:

I’ve largely checked out…I need a couple of big hits to get me back into it, or by week 16 I might bet the whole bankroll on one 6-way parlay just to see what might happen.

$1,000 – Kansas City (-5, -108) at Oakland – I shouldn’t be so excited about the Chiefs on the road, but for the most part they’ve been solid all season.

$1,500 – Philadelphia (-6.5, -105) at Minnesota – I really should have hit my upset pick of the Vikings last week, but this week they don’t have either of their top two running backs.  With my luck, they’ll come out and dominate–but, at least my team would have played well then.  Worst case scenario?  Vikings lose, but Eagles don’t cover.  If you could bet on that scenario, THAT’s a bet the mortgage scenario.

$750 – Saints/Rams – Over 47.5 (-110) – I’m counting on Drew Brees continuing from his performance last week, when he knocked one of my fantasy teams out of the playoffs.

$500 – Redskins (+220)  at Atlanta – I’m not really sure why I get worse odds than Andy on this one–if anything, the Redskins have become an even bigger joke as the week has gone on. But, I suspect that Kirk Cousins will add to the confusion for that team as they look to move forward…