Bet the Mortgage: Week 13, 2013 NFL Best Bets

Andy here. Hope you’re all enjoying your Thanksgiving weekend.

So … Tony may be having a better season than I am when it comes to picking against the point spread. But simple math skills? Not so much.

Truth be told, I wondered all along how, with as badly as I have performed, how I could be more than $1,100 ahead for the year. Turns out anyone could be a sports gambler when the casino is giving you back your original bet twice when you win.

Yes, Tony’s been paying out more than he should have. It’s a good thing he’s not working for a real casino or he’d be laying awake at night dodging Vinnie and Guido … again. So, below are the corrected totals. It’s a pretty dramatic difference – Tony goes from up a lot to up a little. And I go from up a fair amount to … ugly.

But what the hell. It was all pretend money anyway, eh?

Andy’s Bets:

When I discovered my brother’s attempts to swindle the mythical sports book error, I knew it was bad news for my bankroll. As I said, it’s seemed weird that I could bet so poorly, yet end up doing alright in the bank. It was even worse than I thought. So … at this point, it’s time for me to get conservative and cut my losses start chasing my mythical losses. I’ve got no idea what’s going to happen this weekend. Not a clue. Haven’t really all season when it comes to the point spread. But what have I got to lose, except another couple thousand in pretend cash?

$500 – St. Louis (+8.5, -110) at San Francisco – I was less impressed with San Francisco’s offense Monday night against Washington than some observers who said the game showed Colin Kaepernick was back on track. I think it was a decent performance against a pathetic defense. Five of the last seven in this series have been one score games. Last year the Rams beat the 49ers in St. Louis and tied with them in San Francisco. The Rams have won two straight and haven’t lost by more than one score in four straight. 49ers will win, but it’ll be closer than expected.

$700 – Denver at Kansas City: (Over 48.5, -110) – I’m joining Tony’s “bet the over” run with the Broncos, at least for a week. Sure, Peyton Manning looked bad in the cold against New England Sunday night. But Philip Rivers destroyed the Chiefs’ vaunted defense and made those arguing that Kansas City’s 9-0 start was fraudulent look smart. Two weeks ago I thought there was a decent chance the Chiefs might win this game. Now, with two key defensive contributors hurt, I think Denver will name its score.

$1,000 – New England (-9, +115) at Houston – The Patriots caught fire in the second half of Sunday’s game against Denver. It was a game many had been waiting to see New England have. Tom Brady looked like he may have found the chemistry he had lacked with his receivers. Houston, meanwhile, looks and sounds like a team ready to call it a season, with veteran wide receiver Andre Johnson going as far as calling the Texans the worst team in the league. I don’t know if that is true, but I’ll bet on them not finding the answer this week. Most sites have this at -7, -110 but 5dimes.eu has it at +105 for giving two more points. I think you might be able to give 12 more in this game.

$300 – Upset of the Week – New Orleans (Moneyline +205) at Seattle – The Seahawks charged out of the gate to a 10-1 record heading into this Monday night match-up, but suddenly Seattle has to go against Drew Brees without two key defensive backs. I already thought Seattle could be primed for a letdown here, as they’ve built a commanding division lead, while New Orleans has the suddenly ferocious Panthers nipping at their tails. I’m not going to call this a blowout, but I do think there’s a solid chance the Saints come marching into Seattle and leave with a win.

Tony’s Bets:

Realistically, the news that my math was wrong may hurt me more than Andy, if only because I now realize that after 12 weeks, I’ve made $700…that’s not nearly enough to keep me interested. In reality, had I been doing the math right, I would have done something stupid weeks ago, like put $5k on a game just to see if I could do it.  Or, if I was in a real casino, I’d be throwing $250 on a 6-way parlay to see if I could hit it big, because why not?

$550 – New England Patriots (-9, +115) at Houston – See?  First bet, let’s bet basically everything I’ve made to date on a single game.  Why not?  The Patriots are on the road, but it’s Houston, who has been amongst the ugliest teams of the 2013 season.  I mean, their head coach basically had a stroke on the field, and they still don’t seem interested in trying to help the guy keep that job.  And getting a +115 payout on top of it? Sign me up.

$500 – St. Louis at San Francisco: Over 41 (-110) – Sure, the 49ers have one of the better defenses in the NFL, and their offense has been a bit suspect in most recent weeks.  And the Rams defense has been the stronger side of their team, and they’re running with Kellen Clemens at QB. But, it’s 41 points. With defense/special teams probably scoring at least 17 points total in this game, that’s only 24 points for the two offenses to combine for.

$350 – Tennessee (+3, +110) at Indianapolis – The Colts haven’t been the same team since they lost Reggie Wayne, they seem to be playing on the edge every week.  Sometime soon it’s going to burn them. Might as well be when I get a +110 payout.

$200 – Upset of the Week – Tampa Bay (+280) over Carolina – The Panthers are one of the hottest teams in the league, but the Buccaneers haven’t been playing too bad as of late either.  The Panthers are a young team still, and perfectly capable of looking past the Bucs in a trap game.