Green Bay Packers fans suffer rough Tuesday

by | Oct 5, 2010 | 2010 season, 2010 Trades

The Green Bay Packers escaped Sunday afternoon with a tightly contested win over Detroit. It’s hard to win in the NFL and the Pack did, so despite the closer-than-expected score, it was a good day for the green and gold. The weekend ended even better for Green Bay fans when the New York Giants exposed Chicago on Sunday Night Football.

It’s been downhill since.

Tuesday opened with the news that safety Morgan Burnett had torn his ACL and would miss the rest of the season. This was a pretty good-sized blow for a secondary already missing Al Harris.

Still, the secondary has been pretty good this season. The Packers are seventh in the league in pass defense through four weeks, giving up 185 yards per game. And Atari Bigby will be back eventually, so Burnett’s loss alone won’t kill Green Bay’s chances to compete for a Super Bowl.

But the news got worse.

A few hours later news leaked that the Buffalo Bills had traded Marshawn Lynch. To Seattle. For a fourth round pick next year and a conditional pick in 2012. Really? Ted Thompson wouldn’t cough up a fourth round pick to improve a run game that, so far, has looked anemic since Ryan Grant was shelved after a week one leg injury?

The Packers are averaging 94.5 yards per game through the first quarter of the season, 22nd in the league. The team averages 3.9 yards-per-carry (tied for 19th) and 24 attempts per game (21st). They have four rushing touchdowns, which ties them for fourth in the league, but so far Brandon Jackson and John Kuhn are far from proving they can carry the load they’ve been asked to take over since Grant went down.

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Moss to Vikings? Fantasy implications

by | Oct 5, 2010 | Fantasy Football, NFL Random Thoughts

Randy Moss back to the Vikings? Who the hell knows.But the Internets are going wild so there is something to the rumors.

And if he does return to Minnesota it’s going to have some interesting fantasy ramifications.

For the Vikings, it returns Brett Favre to prominence. The offensive line has been a major part of the problem in Minnesota so far this season — but so has the lack of a downfield passing threat with Sidney Rice out and Percy Harvin struggling with various ailments. Moss isn’t the player he used to be but he still has plenty left and he will command coverage.

Everyone — yes, everyone (except Bernard Berrian) — on the Vikings offense will go up in value. Visanthe Shiancoe, Harvin, Greg Camarillo — they all go up in value. Some will go from zero value to a little (Camarillo) and others will go from matchup play to almost every week starter (Harvin).

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Time for Dolphins to euthenize the Wildcat

by | Sep 28, 2010 | NFL Random Thoughts

Miami didn’t beat the New York Jets Sunday night but I found myself impressed with several aspects of the team.

Cameron Wake was a monster on defense, pressuring the quarterback and on one play fighting off a lineman attempting a cut block while maintaining enough balance to still jump up, knock down Mark Sanchez’ pass and almost intercept the deflection.

Brandon Marshall and Chad Henne finally found each other. The duo connected 10 times for 166 yards and almost gave the Dolphins a chance to tie the game at the end. Marshall finally justified the price Miami paid to get him this offseason and it looked to me like those two have a lot to look forward to the rest of the season.

But one thing the Dolphins didn’t do well was execute the so-called Wildcat offense. Every time someone other than Henne took a snap on Sunday night, the Jets appeared ready to stop the run. I don’t remember them gaining more than a yard or two on any run. They lost yards on a couple. And Ronnie Brown, on that fake run, drop back pass, looked like a panicked teenager surrounded by cops after getting busted on a late night beer binge before throwing a pass that landed about 15 yards over the receiver’s head.

The Wildcat was entertaining as a gimmicky offense when the Dolphins were otherwise undermanned. It helped them steal a couple games they shouldn’t have won, including the blowout over New England when Tony Sparano first unveiled the new offense.

But let’s be real. Miami has a strong-armed up-and-coming quarterback in Henne and some real weapons at wide receiver and tight end in Marshall, Brian Hartline, Davone Bess and Anthony Fasano. It’s not the strongest group in the league but it’s a good mix of players who have legit skills. They continue to have a solid two-back combo in Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, though the latter has not gotten on track yet.

And they’ve got one of the league’s best left tackles anchoring a line that seems to be sneaky good. Coupled with a defense that appears to be among the league’s better, there is less reason for the Dolphins to mess with the Wildcat, especially as it appears to be losing effectiveness.

During the game Sunday night, there were at least two occasions during which the Dolphins appeared to have some good momentum going. Then Henne went to the sidelines, Brown took some snaps and seconds later it was third and long.

It was entertaining and effective for awhile. But I don’t think the Dolphins need, nor are they better off, taking out their best personnel groupings for a high school-style offense that the league appears to have solved. Miami can now win without this kitten of an offensive strategy.

AJ Smith stakes job on nixing Jackson trades

by | Sep 25, 2010 | NFL Random Thoughts

San Diego Chargers General Manager A.J. Smith is known for being a tough executive to negotiate with over player contracts. The team has spent years drafting well, using those players through the early years of their careers, then drafting their replacements and letting those mid-to-late career guys go on to other teams.

When Drew Brees’ deal was up, the Chargers let him go to New Orleans and promoted Philip Rivers. LaDainian Tomlinson was the face of the franchise for nine years. But as his value fell even he was shown the door. That’s just two examples.

It’s led to a number of tense situations. Linebacker Shawne Merriman has had a couple of verbal sparring sessions with Smith and, likely, he will be one of the next big-name players to find a new home soon — he very likely would have already if the collective bargaining agreement’s pending end hadn’t converted a couple hundred players from unrestricted free agents to restricted free agents last offseason.

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Suggestion for Forte owners: Sell high

by | Sep 15, 2010 | Fantasy Football

There has been a lot of steam around Matt Forte this offseason, both in real life and in fantasy football circles, where team owners have endlessly debated what the Bears running back would look like under Mike Martz’ system.

While I expect that he will be better than he was in 2009, savvy owners have already begun selling high after his Player of the Week performance against Detroit on Sunday. If you haven’t you should follow.

Through his first two seasons, Forte has five 100 yard rushing games. Three of those came in his rookie season of 2008 when everyone thought he was an emerging star. Those games came against Detroit, St. Louis and Indianapolis or, in order, the 32nd, 29th and 24th best run defenses in the league.

Still, his 1238 yards and 12 touchdowns (eight rushing, four receiving) had owners salivating heading into 2009. Those who got their hands on him were let down dramatically. Fighting through injuries, he mustered just 929 yards rushing and four touchdowns, all on the ground.

His stock fell dramatically heading into this season as the Bears added Chester Taylor. But he’s on fire right now. In one of my leagues an owner already got Reggie Wayne for the Bears back off his Sunday performance.

I wouldn’t touch him with a 10 foot pole. Let’s dig a little deeper into the numbers to see why:

Even in his 1,238 yard rookie season, if you take out the three 100 yard games he had 937 yards on 258 carries, which amounts to 3.6 yards per carry and 72 yards per game. In 2009, he had two 100 yard rushing games – both against Detroit. So subtract those games and you’re left with 707 yards on 230 carries, or 3.1 yards per rush.

His five 100 yard games all time come against some of the worst run defenses of the last decade. His offensive line is terrible. And while I expect he will be more valuable this year, I hardly expect him to put up 151 yards receiving every week. Detroit is better than they have been but most definitely not yet a good defense by any stretch of the imagination.

Heading into the season, he had 384 yards in four games against the Lions, or 96 yards per game. In 28 games against other teams he has 1783 yards, or 64 per game. That’s pretty mediocre for a guy who has been pretty much unquestioned as the starter since his first game in the NFL.

And lost in his performance Sunday, Forte rushed for just 50 yards on 17 carries, less than three yards per carry.

Again, I do think Forte is better than his 2009 indicates. He is a good receiver, having put up 63 catches in 2008 and 57 in 2009, so he’s valuable in point per reception leagues and he might push 100 catches in Martz’ offense.

But he doesn’t get to play his entire career against Detroit. If he did, he would probably already be spending his off days posing for the bust he would eventually have at the Hall of Fame in Canton.

You can’t count on him breaking 80 yard touchdown receptions every week and, while he’ll catch a lot of balls, you can’t count on him to house two touchdowns every week.

Until he starts putting those numbers up against teams other than St. Louis and Detroit, I’d hang onto Reggie Waynes and Andre Johnsons and let some other sucker give away his elite players for this historically mediocre back.