by Andy | Sep 15, 2010 | Fantasy Football
There has been a lot of steam around Matt Forte this offseason, both in real life and in fantasy football circles, where team owners have endlessly debated what the Bears running back would look like under Mike Martz’ system.
While I expect that he will be better than he was in 2009, savvy owners have already begun selling high after his Player of the Week performance against Detroit on Sunday. If you haven’t you should follow.
Through his first two seasons, Forte has five 100 yard rushing games. Three of those came in his rookie season of 2008 when everyone thought he was an emerging star. Those games came against Detroit, St. Louis and Indianapolis or, in order, the 32nd, 29th and 24th best run defenses in the league.
Still, his 1238 yards and 12 touchdowns (eight rushing, four receiving) had owners salivating heading into 2009. Those who got their hands on him were let down dramatically. Fighting through injuries, he mustered just 929 yards rushing and four touchdowns, all on the ground.
His stock fell dramatically heading into this season as the Bears added Chester Taylor. But he’s on fire right now. In one of my leagues an owner already got Reggie Wayne for the Bears back off his Sunday performance.
I wouldn’t touch him with a 10 foot pole. Let’s dig a little deeper into the numbers to see why:
Even in his 1,238 yard rookie season, if you take out the three 100 yard games he had 937 yards on 258 carries, which amounts to 3.6 yards per carry and 72 yards per game. In 2009, he had two 100 yard rushing games – both against Detroit. So subtract those games and you’re left with 707 yards on 230 carries, or 3.1 yards per rush.
His five 100 yard games all time come against some of the worst run defenses of the last decade. His offensive line is terrible. And while I expect he will be more valuable this year, I hardly expect him to put up 151 yards receiving every week. Detroit is better than they have been but most definitely not yet a good defense by any stretch of the imagination.
Heading into the season, he had 384 yards in four games against the Lions, or 96 yards per game. In 28 games against other teams he has 1783 yards, or 64 per game. That’s pretty mediocre for a guy who has been pretty much unquestioned as the starter since his first game in the NFL.
And lost in his performance Sunday, Forte rushed for just 50 yards on 17 carries, less than three yards per carry.
Again, I do think Forte is better than his 2009 indicates. He is a good receiver, having put up 63 catches in 2008 and 57 in 2009, so he’s valuable in point per reception leagues and he might push 100 catches in Martz’ offense.
But he doesn’t get to play his entire career against Detroit. If he did, he would probably already be spending his off days posing for the bust he would eventually have at the Hall of Fame in Canton.
You can’t count on him breaking 80 yard touchdown receptions every week and, while he’ll catch a lot of balls, you can’t count on him to house two touchdowns every week.
Until he starts putting those numbers up against teams other than St. Louis and Detroit, I’d hang onto Reggie Waynes and Andre Johnsons and let some other sucker give away his elite players for this historically mediocre back.
by Andy | Sep 12, 2010 | 2010 NFL Season Preview
Here it is: The final divisional preview: the NFC South, home of the defending champion New Orleans Saints.
Blogs from Carolina and Atlanta sent along some thoughts. They’ll follow mine.
Andy Tellijohn, Zoneblitz.com
New Orleans Saints
Carolina Panthers
Atlanta Falcons
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Saints won’t repeat the record they had last season but they’ll come close. The offense will still be explosive and aggressive and the defense will play off of that with its aggressive style.
There is too much firepower for any team to overtake New Orleans at the top of the South.
I think Atlanta and Carolina will compete for second place. Atlanta is the trendy pick but I’m higher on Carolina than most. I see them as a sleeper. They’ve got two fantastic running backs and Matt Moore solidified the quarterback position last season. The defense is suspect but if the Panthers can run well and control the clock they’ll be more competitive than people think.
I do expect Michael Turner to rebound and for Matt Ryan to continue progressing as a quarterback. And the Falcons could easily make me eat my words. It’ll be a good fight for potential wild card spots.
Tampa has added some interesting pieces. But they’re not close yet to knocking off any of the big three.
For the opinions of a couple team blogs click past the link:
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by Andy | Sep 12, 2010 | 2010 NFL Season Preview
The black and blue division I grew up watching has morphed into an aerial show featuring gunslingers Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers, as well as hopefuls Jay Cutler and Matthew Stafford. These teams should be able to put some points on the board in 2010, with two Super Bowl contenders and two up-and-coming teams looking to improve upon dismal 2009 seasons.
Two bloggers helped us out with some comments. Their comments follow ours:
Andy Tellijohn, Zoneblitz.com
Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings
Detroit Lions
Chicago Bears
I’ve been a lifelong Vikings fan. The 1998, 2000 and 2009 seasons raised and then dashed my hopes of seeing an eventual Super Bowl champion from my hometown. The team has the talent necessary to make another run in 2010. But so far it just feels like the team doesn’t have the same mojo it had in 2009.
Everything went right last year. This year Sidney Rice is out for half the season. The offensive line didn’t get a chance to play together in the preseason. And the Vikes are counting on a couple of last year’s injured, Cedric Griffin and EJ Henderson, coming back and playing well.
Meanwhile the Green Bay Packers looked like they were on fire in the preseason. Not that those games mean a ton, but the offense looks like it will score a lot of points. Rodgers has plenty of weapons. Jermichael Finley looks like a stud.
If the defense can perform at an average level Green Bay could win 12 to 13 games and compete for the Super Bowl.
That would leave Chicago and Detroit fighting for third place. I like a lot of what the Lions have done in the couple years since giving Matt Millen the heave-ho. The defense is still suspect. But the additions of guys like Nate Burleson and Jahvid Best not only give them some offensive firepower but they should allow the Lions to better utilize the talents of Calvin Johnson, one of the league’s best receivers when healthy and perhaps Millen’s only real draft success.
I’m not convinced with the Bears yet. The offensive line has a great coach in Mike Tice but not a ton of talent. The receivers are unproven. And Jay Cutler hasn’t looked like he’s going to be worth the price the Bears paid for him. It’s no lock, but I’ll go out on a limb and say the Lions sneak past the Bears for third place.
A win out of the gates today would help them achieve that goal.
To see what a couple bloggers have to say, click past the jump:
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by Andy | Sep 12, 2010 | 2010 NFL Season Preview
Most of the NFC West teams have a representative among the blogosphere. Our thanks to them for playing along. Their picks follow a brief writeup written by me.
Andy Tellijohn, Zoneblitz.com
San Francisco 49ers
Arizona Cardinals
Seattle Seahawks
St. Louis Rams
The NFC West includes a team with five Super Bowl rings, a Super Bowl participant from 2009 … and two teams that promise to be among the league’s worst this year.
The retirement of Kurt Warner already makes this division interesting. The addition of several key personnel, including two first-round draft picks on the offensive line, gives the 49ers upward momentum.
On the other hand, the lack of Warner – and the subsequent cut of Matt Leinart – means the Cardinals will take a step back this year.
They’ll still beat the bottom feeders though, as Seahawk management tries to figure out why it chased after college’s best coach and as the Rams implement their new players – including exciting new quarterback Sam Bradford – into the mix.
The Seahawks and Rams both have some promise but not enough to overtake the top two teams.
For the opinions of several bloggers, click past the jump:
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by Andy | Sep 12, 2010 | 2010 NFL Season Preview
Dallas is favored to win the NFC East and at least one Cowboys blogger thinks that’s the right pick. He responded to our query for assistance with not just a few paragraphs but a complete report on why he thinks the Silver and Blue will head strongly into the playoffs. His picks follow mine.
Andy Tellijohn, Zoneblitz.com
Dallas
New York Giants
Philadelphia
Washington
The NFC East generally is as competitive a division as there is, with several long-standing rivalries dominating television coverage and piquing the interests of football fans. This year those individual games might be big but I don’t think there will be as much suspense as in some years.
I don’t think that it’s a given that the Dallas Cowboys will win the NFC East this year but it seems pretty clear that they’re the favorites. They finished strong last year, shed some dead weight this offseason and added some strong talent, including wideout Dez Bryant. If the offensive line can keep Tony Romo upright it should be another good year as the Cowboys attempt to become the first team to host a Super Bowl on their home field.
The Giants are my pick over Philadelphia for second place, though I’m not a real believer in either team this season. Both have question marks. Philly is breaking in a new quarterback. New York has to show that the defensive woes that plagued the team the second half of last season are past them. I like Kevin Kolb’s upside, but in the early going I’ll take Eli Manning’s experience, which will allow the Giants to squeek past the Eagles for second place.
Washington has a new direction but Mike Shanahan hasn’t fully had an opportunity to bring in his people. Donovan McNabb will help, but an aged collection of running backs and internal strife with regard to Albert Haynesworth will be just a couple reasons the Redskins need a year or two before they can emerge from the cellar.
My picks are pretty close to Randy Maltz, who writes for the Silver and Blue Report. To read his thoughts click past the jump:
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