Bet the Mortgage: Week 4, 2018 season

by Andy | Sep 30, 2018 | 2018 Season, NFL Gambling

Sometimes life moves a little too fast.

Update later, but here are the bets:

Tony:

$1,000 – LA Chargers (-10.5, -105)

$1,000 – New Orleans (-3.5, -105)

$2,000 – Kansas City (-4.5, +100)

$500 – Miami (+250 money line)

Andy

$600 – Miami (+6.5, -105)

$1,000 – Detroit (+2.5, -107)

$500 – Philadelphia (-3, -110)

$400 – Cincinnati (+164 money line)

Bet the Mortgage: Week 2, 2018

by Andy | Sep 16, 2018 | 2018 Season, NFL Gambling

Update for week 1 will be coming soon…

Andy:

$800 – Washington (-5.5, -110) vs Indianapolis — Probably a fool’s bet, but I was impressed with Alex Smith’s version of the Redskins last week.

$800 – Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5, -110) at Buffalo — Wait, this line has gone down from -9? Why? Josh Allen? I’m not convinced the Bills are really even trying to win this year.

$500 – Philadelphia (-3, -110) at Tampa Bay — Nobody is taking the Bucs lightly this week. The Eagles defense won’t give up 40-plus.

$500 – Carolina (+225 money line) at Atlanta — I don’t get the love for the Falcons here. They looked hideous in the red zone again in week one and they lost a couple keys off their defense. Panthers could easily take this one.

Tony:

$1,500 – Philadelphia (-3.5, +100) at Tampa Bay — I’m surprised the line hasn’t moved more here, and even more surprised that some of the online books are putting it at +100 for the extra half point.

$1,000 – Los Angeles Rams (-13, -105) vs Arizona — Rams at home with Todd Gurley, facing the team that surrendered the most rushing yards in week 1. The line is trending up–I’m seeing it at -13.5 in some spots (a couple still at 12.5, too), but I’ll give the 13 for the -105 vs -110 payout.

$1,000 – Kansas City @ Pittsburgh: Over 52 (-108) – Yes, it’s a high number for Total Points, but the Steelers can put up points (last week’s 21 against the Browns was an anomaly, given the weather), and the Chiefs defense isn’t great–but their offense is.

$800 – Carolina (+220 money line) at Atlanta – I think Andy made the right call here, and the payout appears to be moving down–I had to scrounge to find the +220 payout.

Bet the Mortgage: Week 1, 2018

by Andy | Sep 9, 2018 | 2018 Season, NFL Gambling

Wasn’t sure I/we were going to do this segment in 2018, due to incompetence from the past. But as it turns out I’m a degenerate. So here goes. More details later:

Andy:

$750 – Baltimore (-7.5, -110) vs Buffalo – Nathan Peterman, baby. Not sure the Bills are even trying this year.

$500 – Jacksonville (-3, even) at NY Giants – Giants will be better, but the Jags are for real. The defense makes the difference.

$600 – Cincinnati (+2, -110) at Indianapolis – Bengals win this outright.

$500 – Upset: Chicago (+320 moneyline) at Green Bay – I wrestled with this or Kansas City over San Diego. I don’t expect either, but the payoff is better here. Chicago’s defense is for real. I could see them sneaking up on the Pack.

Tony:

Fine, I’ll take a shot, at least see if I finally can make something big out of this…

$1,000 – Jacksonville (-3, +100) over NY Giants – I don’t care how off the charts Saquon Barkley’s combine was, if the Giants can’t score, they can’t win. The Jags are good enough to shut down OBJ while still stacking the box for Saquon.

$1,000 – LA Chargers (-3.5, +100) over Kansas City – Only one sports book I found was paying the +100, but I’ll take it. I think the Chiefs are going to go through some growing pains this year.

$500 – Seattle at Denver: Over 42 (-102) – Neither defense is what it once was. Russell Wilson will still get the Seahawks in the end zone at least a couple of times, and Case Keenum…well, Brandon McManus has a big leg.

$1,000 – Upset: Chicago (+270 moneyline) over Green Bay – Gotta agree with Andy, the payoff on Cincinnati (+110 at best) isn’t there, so let’s go with the big guns–the moneyline is already moving back here. The Bears may have Khalil Mack on a pitch count, but that might actually help him keep the legs fresh enough to harass Aaron Rodgers…will he make it to his game 2 rematch against Anthony Barr and the Vikings?