Wrapping up 2012 picks and bets

by | Dec 31, 2012 | 2012 season, NFL Gambling, NFL Picks

In an effort to provide accountability – and because I’m sure all six of you who make a point of looking for our picks and bets every week are dying to know – we wanted to provide final regular tallies for our best bets and picks segments.

In week 17, our futility continued when it comes to betting. Andy and Tony both hit just one of four picks, though both of the correct ones were moneyline upset picks that, if bet right, might have kept us from going completely broke with our imaginary money.

The 1-3 tallies left Andy with a 30-37-1 record for the season. Tony tumbled to a 28-40 mark.

Our picks were markedly better. Andy finished out the season with a bang, going 13-3 in week 17. A 27-5 run the final two weeks upped his record to 166-89-1 for the season. Tony led most of the way but fell to 9-7 in week 16 and 10-6 in week 17 for a 161-94-1 mark.

I’d like to once again thank the team bloggers who participated in our celebrity pick segment every week. Their efforts resulted in a 158-97-1 mark for the season.

As this is a highly anticipated segment each week, we’ll probably come up with something for the playoffs too. Check back for details on that later.

 

Are the Vikings actually good?

by | Dec 28, 2012 | 2012 season, NFL Random Thoughts

I had a successful run for a brief few games during the middle of this season betting and picking against my hometown team, the Minnesota Vikings. I picked up that strategy in 2010, when gambling against the purple was extremely profitable during a lost 3-13 season.

For the most part this year, however, Minnesota has been surprisingly solid. The defense, with the addition of safety Harrison Smith, is much improved. Adrian Peterson has had a monster season. And Christian Ponder has been maddeningly inconsistent, but has shown, at times, flashes that he might not be a complete dud.

After Sunday’s dismantling of Houston – the second time this season the seemingly outmanned Vikings have physically dominated a supposedly far superior foe – I texted my brother and asked: “Are the Vikings actually good?”

His response: “Been trying to figure that out for some time now myself. Suspect Texans aren’t quite as good as earlier thought, but Vikings are better than I gave them credit for.”

That makes two of us. We went on to agree that this team has the talent to potentially stick with any team on a good day and the shortcomings where on a bad one it could lose to any dreg of a team. But given last season and the predictions going in – few “experts” had the Vikings winning six games this year and I would have thought that a reasonable level of improvement myself back on opening day – how has this team improved to the point where it can be considered a legitimate playoff contender? (more…)

ZB Notebook: 12-18-2012

by | Dec 18, 2012 | 2012 season, NFL Random Thoughts

Wow. The Monday night season ended with a thud. After having a couple of decent matchups, ESPN was stuck with the Titans and the Jets last night and, though I didn’t watch a play, the highlights make it look like it lived up to its lack of billing.

How can the Jets keep tossing Mark Sanchez out there to watch him get destroyed week after week? The team still has at least a passable defense, but the offense is a mess. NFL Network has been running a poll asking if the blame should lay more with Sanchez or coach Rex Ryan. I would argue that it’s difficult to answer that question: Sanchez has been brutal but Ryan has stuck with him … not that I’m a huge believer in Tim Tebow or Greg McElroy at this point either.

I’m guessing Ryan is firmly on the hot seat (he was my number two coach likely to get fired in the preseason). It’s not as much a given that he’ll be fired as it is with Norv Turner and Andy Reid, but I’d say it’s a better than 50/50 proposition at this point.

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NFL Picks, 2012 Season, Week 15

by | Dec 13, 2012 | 2012 season, NFL Picks

The sense heading into the 2012 season was that if Peyton Manning could come back to anything resembling his earlier years, the Denver Broncos would be in position to have a pretty good season.

Manning has answered any doubters he may have had to the tune of 3,800 yards and 30 touchdowns heading into week 15. And the Broncos have won eight in a row, running away with a division that in recent years often has been won by whatever team can reach eight or nine wins for the season.

Kim Constantinesco, senior editor of Predominantly Orange, thinks the best is yet to come.

“When all three phases are playing well, this is undoubtedly the best team in the NFL,” she says. “If everyone stays healthy and takes care of business, the Broncos team is Super Bowl bound.”

I’m not sure the separation is that great yet. New England is playing well and, when on its game, Houston can play with anyone. But the Broncos are right in the mix to be playing for the town’s first title since John Elway retired.

Constantinesco joined Zoneblitz as our guest blogger for week 15. She follows Greg Cowan, managing editor and senior writer with Colts Authority. I’m not sure we’ll be inviting him back again – Cowan destroyed both of us by going 11-5. Andy was a brutal 6-10 and Tony finished a paltry 8-8. Tony maintains the lead as we head into the final three weeks of the season.

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ZB Notebook: 12-13-2012

by | Dec 13, 2012 | 2012 season, NFL Random Thoughts

Drew Brees and Roger Goodell far from burying the hatchet

New Orleans Saints players indicted and convicted by Commissioner Goodell had their suspensions overturned by Paul Tagliabue, who had been appointed to take another look at the BountyGate allegations.

But neither the commissioner, nor Saints quarterback Brees are backing down from the ongoing fight.

Brees chimed in shortly after Tabliabue’s ruling saying Goodell lacked credibility with players and fans for how he handled the incidents. The quarterback has been outspoken from the start about his frustration with how the allegations were handled.

Goodell responded via the Huffington Post article by saying he would not apologize for anything and indicating that he still believes the Saints employed a bounty system and that doing so was unacceptable.

I’m not sure either guy is completely right. I think Goodell has done a credible job since becoming commissioner of creating penalties for players who A) don’t conduct themselves well off the field and who B) carelessly put opposing players in danger with massive hits, etc.

But like many of his critics, I think Goodell has gone too far in appointing himself as accuser and judge. There needs to be a more equitable and fair process. And he has been less than forthcoming about any evidence that does exist against Saints players, executives and coaches.

Brees, meanwhile, has always conducted himself with respect and class. But he seems to have buried his head in the sand, at least to some respect, as far as BountyGate goes, seemingly denying that anything took place despite admissions from defensive coordinator Gregg Williams and others.

It’s understandable that Brees would be frustrated about how the season has unfolded. The 5-8 Saints are virtually out of the playoff race and he isn’t getting any younger. How many more chances he’ll have to chase a second Super Bowl is no guarantee.

But still, even if the evidence against the players wasn’t strong, penalties against Williams, Sean Payton, Joe Vitt and Mickey Loomis were warranted, whether the ones they received went overboard or not.

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