I remember seeing all over Reddit last year that fans of lots of teams were upset with Adam Rank’s predictions for their team–the Vikings subreddit in particular, with his 5-11 prediction is the one that sticks out.  With his 2020 predictions hitting the last couple of days, thought it would be a good time to review his picks last year.

Rank’s NFL.com profile notes that he has been “has been giving his irreverent look on the NFL” since 1995, and if you watch the video it’s clear that he’s a Bears fan (going so far as to have someone else walk in the frame to tap the screen handing the Bears a late season loss to the Packers, so he didn’t have to). And to be fair to Rank, he’s putting his game by game predictions out in June–long before training camp injuries and surprise retirements (hi Andrew Luck!), but even with that…his predictions were…not great.

To get his predictions, I fast forwarded through a YouTube video of all of them (will embed it below)…and while I may have missed something, I had him coming up with an aggregate record of 255-257. From my spot checking, he did seem to have the proper cross game selections (ie, he had Pittsburgh losing to Arizona, then he did have Arizona beating Pittsburgh), so maybe I just missed something.

But here were his overall predicitons:

2019 Prediction Division Rank Playoff Seed
AFC East Patriots 13-3 1st 1st Seed
Bills 8-8 2nd
Dolphins 3-13 3rd
Jets 3-13 4th
AFC North Browns 10-6 1st 4th Seed
Steelers 9-7 2nd
Ravens 9-7 3rd
Bengals 3-13 4th
AFC South Colts 12-4 1st 3rd Seed
Jaguars 11-5 2nd 5th Seed
Texans 9-7 3rd
Titans 3-13 4th
AFC West Chiefs 12-4 1st 2nd Seed
Chargers 11-5 2nd 6th Seed
Raiders 8-8 3rd
Broncos 2-14 4th 1st Overall Pick
NFC East Eagles 13-3 1st 2nd Seed
Cowboys 10-6 2nd
Giants 5-11 3rd
Washington 2-14 4th
NFC North Bears 13-3 1st 1st Seed
Packers 12-4 2nd 5th Seed
Vikings 5-11 3rd
Lions 4-12 4th
NFC South Saints 12-4 1st 3rd Seed
Falcons 11-5 2nd
Panthers 8-8 3rd
Buccaneers 4-12 4th
NFC West Rams 12-4 1st 4th Seed
Seahawks 12-4 2nd 6th Seed
49ers 3-13 3rd
Cardinals 3-13 4th

It’s easy to second guess those now, knowing how the season turned out–so let’s just jump straight into the comparison:

2019 Prediction Division Rank Playoff Seed 2019 Actual Division Rank Playoff Seed
AFC East Patriots 13-3 1st 1st Seed 12-4 1st 3rd Seed
Bills 8-8 2nd 10-6 2nd 5th Seed
Dolphins 3-13 3rd 5-11 4th
Jets 3-13 4th 7-9 3rd
AFC North Browns 10-6 1st 4th Seed 6-10 3rd
Steelers 9-7 2nd 8-8 2nd
Ravens 9-7 3rd 14-2 1st 1st Seed
Bengals 3-13 4th 2-14 4th
AFC South Colts 12-4 1st 3rd Seed 7-9 3rd
Jaguars 11-5 2nd 5th Seed 6-10 4th
Texans 9-7 3rd 10-6 1st 4th Seed
Titans 3-13 4th 9-7 2nd 6th Seed
AFC West Chiefs 12-4 1st 2nd Seed 12-4 1st 2nd Seed
Chargers 11-5 2nd 6th Seed 5-11 4th
Raiders 8-8 3rd 7-9 3rd
Broncos 2-14 4th 1st Overall Pick 7-9 2nd
NFC East Eagles 13-3 1st 2nd Seed 9-7 1st 4th Seed
Cowboys 10-6 2nd 8-8 2nd
Giants 5-11 3rd 4-12 3rd
Washington 2-14 4th 3-13 4th
NFC North Bears 13-3 1st 1st Seed 8-8 3rd
Packers 12-4 2nd 5th Seed 13-3 1st 2nd Seed
Vikings 5-11 3rd 10-6 2nd 6th Seed
Lions 4-12 4th 3-12-1 4th
NFC South Saints 12-4 1st 3rd Seed 13-3 1st 3rd Seed
Falcons 11-5 2nd 7-9 2nd
Panthers 8-8 3rd 5-11 4th
Buccaneers 4-12 4th 7-9 3rd
NFC West Rams 12-4 1st 4th Seed 9-7 3rd
Seahawks 12-4 2nd 6th Seed 11-5 2nd 5th Seed
49ers 3-13 3rd 13-3 1st 1st Seed
Cardinals 3-13 4th 5-10-1 4th

I didn’t go through it game by game, but by my count, he got exactly one team’s record correct (the Chiefs, at 12-4), and two playoff seeds correct (the Chiefs and Saints). He did manage to get 15 teams correct on where they would rank in their division–including the entire NFC East. But in total, he missed by a total of 96 games when you take the absolute value of the differences. His worst prediction was the 49ers, who he had at 3-13–they only went 13-3 and represented the NFC in the Super Bowl.

My goal is to put together my own predictions in 2020 (pre-training camp), and see how I do compared to him. I did it once several years ago for fun, and just creating the spreadsheet to make sure you’re not miscounting is a pain–but if anyone else is interested, let me know in the comments below, and I can send you the spreadsheet as well–then maybe we’ll post all of our predictions, and see how many of us can best Adam Rank’s 2020 predictions.

For the record, here’s what I am seeing for his 2020 predictions:

2019 Prediction Division Rank Playoff Seed
AFC East Patriots 9-7 1st 4th Seed
Bills 9-7 2nd
Dolphins 7-9 3rd
Jets 4-12 4th
AFC North Ravens 11-5 1st 5th Seed
Steelers 13-3 1st 1st Seed
Bengals 4-12 3rd
Browns 8-8 4th
AFC South Colts 10-6 1st 3rd Seed
Jaguars 3-13 2nd
Texans 6-10 3rd
Titans 8-8 2nd
AFC West Chiefs 10-6 1st 6th Seed
Chargers 3-13 2nd
Raiders 9-7 3rd 7th Seed
Broncos 11-5 4th 2nd Seed
NFC East Eagles 13-3 1st 1st Seed
Cowboys 12-4 2nd 5th Seed
Giants 6-10 3rd
Washington 4-12 4th
NFC North Bears 10-6 1st 4th Seed
Packers 8-8 2nd
Vikings 7-9 3rd
Lions 3-13 4th
NFC South Saints 12-4 1st 2nd Seed
Falcons 7-9 2nd
Panthers 4-12 3rd
Buccaneers 10-6 4th 6th Seed
NFC West Rams 7-9 1st
Seahawks 10-6 2nd 7th Seed
49ers 12-4 3rd 3rd Seed
Cardinals 6-10 4th

Adam Rank’s 2019 Predictions Video:

Adam Rank’s 2020 Predictions Video