Bet the Mortgage: Week 12, 2013 NFL Best Bets

Andy just can’t win for winning. Last week, he managed to not lose a single one of his bets (hitting on two, and getting the first two pushes recorded for our bets this season), and netted an impressive $1,913 in profit.

Good for his balance, but not good enough compared to my week, despite me only hitting .500 again. I hit the first four digit bet of the season with Philly, and tacked on another $1,500 onto my total with an Even win with Oakland (turns out I should have taken them on the moneyline like Andy).

With just six weeks left in the season, things are definitely being cranked up a notch, so nothing is guaranteed for either of us–I’d still look for one of us to be broke in 3 weeks.

Andy’s Bets:

Unlike some recent weeks, when it felt like finding good lines was a stretch, there are a number of games I feel okay about. That’s probably delusion or bourbon or something I’ll regret. But for purposes of this segment I’ve narrowed it down to four.

$750 – New York Giants (-3, +105) vs Dallas – The Cowboys got the better of the Giants a few weeks ago during New York’s disastrous start. But the Giants have started winning. And Dallas is A) hurt by injuries and B) playing like the Cowboys of recent times. It’s not likely to be a blowout, but I think the Giants will make sure Dallas does not remain unbeaten in the NFC East. Most sites have this line between 1 and 2.5, but I found it at +105 on Bovada at a -3. Will I regret the extra point or so? Perhaps. But I’ll take that chance.

$600 – Chicago (Pick ‘em, +105) at St. Louis – This is a game I’m not feeling all that confident in. The battle of backup quarterbacks, Josh McCown and Kellen Clemens, is a tossup. The terminally mediocre Clemens seems to have injected some life into the Rams’ offense. But at the end of the day, I think the Bears are the better team here. In what could be a 2 hour, 45 minute game due to the running prowess of Zac Stacy and Matt Forte, I will take 5dimes.eu’s +105 odds on the Bears, hoping that superior talent wins out over momentum.

$1,500 – Carolina (-4.5, -110) at Miami – This is my biggie for the week. I’m trusting that the Panthers are not going to act like a young team and go on the road after a big win and crap the bed against an inferior opponent. Carolina should kick all kinds of dog crap out of the beleaguered Dolphins. They’ve got momentum from six straight wins and motivation – catching the Saints. I think this team is for real and could be the second best team in the NFC. If I’m wrong, my bankroll is going to take a big hit for it.

$300 – Upset of the Week: Jacksonville (Moneyline +380) at Houston – My comfort level with this week’s lines did not stretch to the moneyline bet. There aren’t a lot of straight upsets I like. That said, the 1-9 Jaguars have actually been competitive in recent weeks, knocking off Tennessee and playing a couple other solid teams tough through the first half. Gun to my head, I’d say the Texans win this game. But this is clearly not the gutty bunch of seasons recently passed. Houston has an eight-game losing streak on the line here and there seems to be some dissension in the ranks. I think the Texans win, but would not be surprised if Jacksonville pulls off the upset and gets me a nice moneyline win.

Tony’s Bets:

Unlike Andy, I liked last week’s slate a lot more than this week’s–and despite my goal of $20k, I’m actually backing off a bit to protect what I have for the next two weeks to make that push.

$300 – Indianapolis (+1, +115) at Arizona – The Colts haven’t been the same since they lost Reggie Wayne, and the Cardinals have been playing better–but at the end of the day, Andrew Luck has still been getting it done, so I’ll take a chance on them pulling it out for the +115 payout.

$500 – Jacksonville (+10, -110) at Houston – This may be the ugliest game of the week. The Texans might pull it out, but I doubt they’ll make it easy–they haven’t seemed interested in doing that all season.

$500 – Denver at New England: Over 54 (-110) – If I had to pick a team, I would lean towards New England at home with Bill Belichek vs. Tom Brady. But, as with a lot of the Broncos games this year, I’ll stick to the over.

$200 – Upset of the Week: Atlanta (moneyline +355) over New Orleans – On paper, there’s no way that New Orleans can lose. But they’re coming off a big win last week, and looking forward to a couple of meetings with the Panthers. The game is in Atlanta. And the Falcons have to want to salvage something from this season…don’t they?