Some people call NFL Divisional Playoff Weekend the best of the football season. This season I think they are absolutely right on.
I love this weekend’s games. I’ve been studying them as time allowed all week and I’ve spent the last hour scouring the Internet and two newspapers looking for information. And I can’t get a good grasp on any of the four matchups.
I’m coming off of a pretty good week though. I hit three of four both straight up and against the spread last week. Hopefully that trend continues. Here are my thoughts:
Straight-up: Arizona over New Orleans
Spread: Arizona +7
Reason: Everything I’ve read indicates people think this game is going to be a shootout. I think they are correct. The smartest play this week might be taking the over-57.
While I doubt either team reaches 51 as Arizona did last week against Green Bay, both of these teams end up winning by outscoring opponents rather than holding them to low scores. So why am I going against two playoff seasons of picking against Arizona?
New Orleans set a franchise record for scoring this season and averaged more than 30 points per game. But their last four games netted 10, 17, 17 and 26. Despite starting 13-0, the last dominant performance the Saints put forth was November 30 against New England, a 38-17 win. Since then they’ve struggled to beat Washington and Atlanta and lost their last three (with one of those being to Carolina when they rested starters). The Saints have the feel of a team that peaked too early.
Arizona, on the other hand, is on fire. In the four games prior to the meaningless 33-7 loss to Green Bay in the finale – in a game that meant little to them by kickoff – the Cardinals reached 30 points three times. The Cardinals are 4-0 on turf this season and 6-2 on the road, matching the Saints’ record at home. And Kurt Warner, who discovered Steve Breaston, Jerheme Urban and Early Doucet last week with Anquan Boldin out, gets to go against two starting cornerbacks who spent chunks of the season injured and may not yet be full strength.
Furthermore, the Cardinals are 5-1 straight up and 6-0 against the spread this season when they are the underdog. I expect another high scoring game. And yes, I expect the Cardinals to come out on top.
Straight-up: Indianapolis over Baltimore
Spread: Baltimore +6.5
Reason: I love the way Baltimore played last week against New England. They came out of the gate, nailed an 83 yard touchdown and put up 24 in the first quarter against New England. Joe Flacco threw just 10 passes in the dominant performance. The run game is the way to beat Indianapolis and I think they will come close.
But Indianapolis has been masterful in close games all season. This is not a dominant Colts team in a lot of ways, but they have won eight games by eight points or fewer, including a 17-15 win at Baltimore in November.
I think Peyton Manning has just a few too many weapons in the passing game for a Baltimore team that has been vulnerable in the secondary at times this season, sometimes even against nondescript quarterbacks (Charlie Frye/JaMarcus Russell combined for 282 yards and a score in the finale. Manning had 299 yards in the November win).
This should be a great game. I expect a slightly higher-scoring output than the two teams produced in November. I am picking the Colts but if the controversial decision to rest starters the last three weeks of the season actually turned the Colts rusty it would not be the least bit surprising to see the Ravens pull this one out.
Straight-up: Dallas over Minnesota
Spread: Dallas +3
Reason: This is another matchup that fascinates me, not just because the Vikings are my hometown team.
Dallas comes into this game on fire. They ended the Saints’ undefeated season quest the week before Christmas, pitched two shutouts against division rivals Washington and Philadelphia, then crushed the Eagles again last week in the playoffs. The offense is hitting its stride, mixing doses of Tony Romo in the passing game with a three-headed running back attack featuring not Marion Barber but the explosive Felix Jones.
Minnesota played extremely well against New York in its finale. But before that the team struggled in losing three of four – and giving up 30, 26 and 36 in those defeats. The Vikings are undefeated at Metrodome this season. But Dallas had a winning record on the road and was 8-3 on artificial turf. Plus, they have the New Orleans win at Superdome on their resume – I doubt they come in scared of crowd noise or intimidation.
The Cowboys also feature the league’s second best scoring defense. Other than two losses to the New York Giants in which they gave up 31 and 33 points, Dallas has not allowed an opponent to score more than 21 all year. Their outside linebacker duo of DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer will give fits to the Vikings’ tackles, rookie Phil Loadholt and inconsistent Bryant McKinnie.
The Vikings also play good defense, especially at home where they’ve given up just 46 points in their last five games. I think Antoine Winfield’s food injury is going to play a role in this game. If he is near full strength after the week off, that will help the Vikings neutralize Miles Austin and Tony Romo. If Winfield is off his game, however, it leaves the secondary vulnerable. Jason Witten could also have a big game for Dallas as the Vikings have had issues covering tight ends at times this season.
This will be another close one. I’d expect it to end up a touchdown difference or less and probably on the lower end of the 45.5 over/under. Right now I’m leaning 51% to 49% that it’s the Cowboys that end up the victor.
Straight-up: New York Jets over San Diego
Spread: Jets +7
Reason: This might be the most interesting of the weekend. The Chargers come into the game riding an 11 game winning streak. The Jets might not even have made the playoffs if Indianapolis hadn’t decided to remove their starters from their week 15 game.
But don’t take the Jets lightly. They’re running the ball fantastically with both Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene. And the league’s best scoring defense is peaking at the right time. They held their last six regular season opponents to 6, 13, 3, 10, 15 and 0 points and only allowed 14 to Cincinnati in the Wild Card game.
The Chargers have a potent passing game. But Vincent Jackson, who went for 1,167 yards and nine touchdowns during the regular season, will be facing Darrelle Revis, who has made many of the league’s best receivers invisible this season. For the Chargers to win others are going to have to step up in the passing game. They certainly have the weapons – Antonio Gates is still great. Malcom Floyd has proven he’s capable of producing big plays. And Darren Sproles has almost single-handedly won a game or two the last couple seasons.
The Bolts will also have to stop the run. In fact, if they can slow the run and force the game into the hands of rookie Mark Sanchez, the Chargers will win this game hands down. That’s going to be a tough challenge, however, especially considering the injuries San Diego has suffered along the defensive line this season.
Just like the other three games, there are arguments for why either team could pull this one off. In the end, I love the way Rex Ryan has his team playing right now. They are absolutely peaking in the playoffs, not unlike the way Arizona did last year. This will be a great opportunity for Norv Turner to prove he can be the big-game coach many suspect he can’t. Not that my opinion matters, but I’m not sure he can either.
So I’m going with the Jets.
J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS!!! im sooo pumped.