ZB NFL Preview 2013: NFC South

The NFC South was a one team race last year as Atlanta ran away with the division. The Falcons are probably still the cream of the crop, but the league is done punishing the Saints for the so-called Bounty-gate scandal and with Sean Payton back, they should be much improved over the disappointing 2012. The Bucs and Panthers also look to be up and coming. The NFC South could be tightening up in 2013.

Atlanta Falcons

The Optimist:

An already good offense got even better by upgrading the RB spot with Steven Jackson, who always performed in St. Louis despite a lack of weapons around him. They convinced TE Tony Gonzalez, who led the team in receptions, to return for one more shot at a Super Bowl. Paired with Julio Jones and Roddy White, they continue to give QB Matt Ryan multiple options in the passing game, which will also continue to open up holes that Jackson should be able to exploit better than former RB Michael Turner did in 2012. On defense, they addressed one major concern in the draft by taking CBs Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford in the first two rounds, and added a veteran with Super Bowl experience in Osi Umenyiora at DE. This is a team that doesn’t just have playoff aspirations, but Super Bowl aspirations. Top seed in the NFC is possible, anything under the second seed is a disappointment.

The Pessimist:

The Falcons got rid of probably their best defensive player in John Abraham, and are replacing him with a malcontent in Umenyiora that has underperformed in New York the last two seasons. They failed to address the other DE spot, and are counting on a trio of veteran LB to take more steps forward, when they probably won’t. They’ve got two Pro Bowlers at safety, but they may not be able to gamble as much with two rookie CB likely playing significant roles this year. And Asante Samuel may not be the guy you want teaching those young pups how to cover. On offense, Jackson is a nice upgrade, who fortunately has plenty of experience playing behind suspect offensive lines, because the team failed to upgrade that weak spot as well. The team should be good, but add in a Saints team that should be back on track with their head coach back, and two up-and-coming teams in the Bucs and Panthers, and there are no guarantees this team does anything significant this year.

The Realist:

This team should win the division, but shouldn’t rest on its laurels looking at the rest of the south. They do face a potentially closing window, as they probably won’t convince Gonzalez to come back again, and the Bucs and Panthers do appear to be on the upswing. Should finish 11-5 or 12-4, and have one of the top three spots in the playoffs.

New Orleans Saints

The Optimist:

Sean Payton is finally back at the helm of the team that won the 2011 NFC South division with a 13-3 record, before finishing 7-9 without him last year. Knowing that defense was still the weakest spot in 2012 after giving up an NFL record 7,042 yards, Payton and the Saints spent their offseason attempting to upgrade multiple spots, including replacing defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and secondary coach Ken Flajole with Rob Ryan and Wesley McGriff. The switch to a 3-4 scheme may take some time, but the defense couldn’t be any worse, especially with CB Keenan Lewis coming in from Pittsburgh.

The Pessimist:

Replacing the defensive coaching staff is one thing—not replacing the talent is another. Victor Butler was expected to be Ryan’s new DeMarcus Ware after backing him up for several years in Dallas, but he tore his ACL in the summer and was placed on the Reserve/PUP list. Will Smith, who was transitioning to outside linebacker as part of the move to the 3-4, also tore his ACL. Kenyon Coleman, another Ryan veteran expected to help with the transition, has also been hurt, and free agents Jim Leonhard and Jay Richardson have been released. So the defense still has significant holes. Add in the loss of Jermon Bushrod, who had protected Drew Brees’ blindside for four seasons, and even Sean Payton might not help this team win any more games.

The Realist:

The 2013 New Orleans Saints will be an interesting case study in the debate over the value of head coaches. If the Saints improve, expect him to get most of the credit. If they fall further back, expect the Saints to face more rebuilding for 2014.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Optimist:

The Buccaneers are a team that almost can’t help but get better in 2013, with star Guards Davin Joseph and Carl Nicks returning from injuries to block for 2012 rookie standout Doug Martin. An even stronger running game should help Josh Freeman, which should help Vincent Jackson, Mike Williams and Kevin Ogletree exploit more open spaces. Add in Darrelle Revis at cornerback and Adrian Clayborn coming back from an injury, along with the addition of 49ers free agent safety Dashon Goldson, and the defense should see improvement as well, despite the losses of Michael Bennett and Ronde Barber. Most experts project the Bucs in third place, but with a few breaks, there’s no reason they can’t challenge for the division, or grab a wildcard at a minimum.

The Pessimist:

Like many NFL teams, the Bucs’ season likely hinges on the play of their quarterback. And like many teams, that has to scare some of their fans. In his first season under Greg Schiano and Mike Sullivan, Freeman saw his passing yardage and TD-INT ratio improve, but his completion percentage took a huge hit, and his rating was still only 81.6. If Freeman doesn’t take another step forward, neither will the Bucs, despite all of the offseason acquisitions. The Bucs also appear to be relying on big question marks at all three levels of defense, including Da’Quan Bowers (who has disappointed so far), rookie fourth round pick Akeem Spence, special teams ace Dekoda Watson, and second year corner Leonard Johnson. The Bucs will keep their fingers crossed that none of the 2012 injuries come back in 2013 and that the staph infection that has sidelined Nicks and kicker Lawrence Tynes—possibly into the season—doesn’t linger.

The Realist:

The Bucs are a team that appears to be on the upswing, and could easily take it to the next level if the Falcons and/or Saints falter. While it is unlikely both teams would fall enough for the Bucs to grab the division, a wildcard spot is a possibility—although it may be out of their control, with the strength of the rest of the NFC.

Carolina Panthers

The Optimist:

Many experts declare Cam Newton’s second season a sophomore slump—but in reality, his passer rating improved and his interceptions declined in his second season. Many of those experts may have been comparing him to rookies Andrew Luck and RGIII, or lamenting his drop in rushing TDs (14 to 8) for their fantasy teams. He needs to take another step forward, but the core talent of the Panthers returns with him and they have the tools to return to the playoffs. Defensively, adding Dwan Edwards and Star Lotulelei to the defensive line to free up 2012 Defensive Rookie of the Year Luke Kuechly can only help. Getting Jon Beason back is another step forward. The loss of Chris Gamble hurts, but the defensive backfield is younger and healthier than it has been in recent years.

The Pessimist:

Despite Newton’s gaudy fantasy stats, they have won only 13 of his 32 starts in the NFL. Whether it’s on Newton or head coach Ron Rivera, if they don’t improve in 2013, expect the status quo to change in 2013—and I seriously doubt Newton’s job as at risk. The Panthers have also been in salary cap purgatory and only had five picks in the 2013 draft, meaning they couldn’t add much for this year. Running backs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart pack a mean punch when healthy—which was last true back in 2011. Stewart will miss at least the first six games in 2013, putting even more pressure on Newton. The defense will have to stay healthy and improve on their number 10 ranking from 2012 for this team to have any hope at the playoffs.

The Realist:

The Panthers appear to be suffering from a numbers game in the NFC South. With three solid teams ahead of them, they need some serious luck to climb out of the basement. Another rough year might cost Ron Rivera his job, and might signal even more significant restructuring of the team under new General Manager Dave Gettleman.