ZB NFL Preview 2013: NFC North

On paper, the NFC North looks like the most competitive division in the NFL. It features the league’s best quarterback, best running back, best wide receiver (if not two), and possibly the best linebacker and best defensive tackle as well. In reality, however, the former Black and Blue division also offers a plethora of suspect offensive lines, and a couple really questionable defenses. The folks in Green Bay have started the annual Super Bowl discussion, and Chicago, Detroit, and Minnesota all see themselves as playoff teams. The reality is the Packers may be the only team of the four still playing in January – and they just might be playing in February.

Green Bay Packers

The Optimist: Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in the NFL. It’s barely even debatable. He is surrounded by very good wide receivers, and possibly one great one. In 2013, Randall Cobb should shed the “Poor Man’s Percy Harvin” moniker and earn some first rung respect. Jordy Nelson really is a poor man’s Wes Welker, and James Jones led the NFL in touchdown catches last year. On top of that, TE Jermichael Finley looks like he has worked out whatever issues he had with Rodgers, and should be a more integral part of the offense. But we know about the Packer passing game. What’s interesting is they seem to have discovered a new toy this year: a running game. No Packer running back has gained 1,000 yards since Ryan Grant in 2009. Former Alabama running back Eddie Lacy was the first running back selected in the 2013 draft, and the Packers believe he’ll be a big difference maker. On defense, Clay Matthews has recovered from the hamstring injury that hobbled him at the end of the year. Surrounded by guys like DE’s B.J. Raji and Datone Jones (plus, Johnny Jolly’s back!), and CB Tramon Williams, Matthews & Co. should provide sufficient play to support the high powered offense.

The Pessimist: Nobody does denial better than a Packer fan. They can talk all they want about All Pro seasons for Rodgers, Cobb and Lacy, but it’s funny that they never talk about their offensive line. That’s because they don’t have one. After playing musical chairs during OTA’s, the Packers thought they had something going. Then former RT and new LT Bryan Bulaga tore his ACL, making the weakest unit on the team demonstrably weaker. David Bakhtiari , the 2013 fourth round pick now has a lot on his plate, having to block NFC North DE’s like Jared Allen and Julius Peppers (and, by the way, The Pack starts the year against San Francisco, who’s right side defense features Justin and Aldon Smith). If Bakhtiari doesn’t play way above his head, Rodgers could be broken in half by October.

The Realist: Never bet against Mike McCarthy. All of the changes made along the O-line were for the better, and we’ve seen lesser prospects than Bakhtiari play at a high level. Rodgers, by the way has never had a good offensive line in front of him, and he’s wearing a Super Bowl ring. He knows how to get around this. Adding a running game to that offense could make it the best in the league. The defense is good, not great, but Matthews presence gives them enough. As a died-in-the-wool Vikings fan, this is the hardest thing I’ve ever had to write. I want to barf, but the Pack looks like a lock to go 12-4, win their third straight NFC North title and make a deep run in the playoffs.

Chicago Bears

The Optimist: Is it possible that Jay Cutler is the best quarterback the Bears have ever had? This is the year we’ll find out. The Chicago offense seems loaded for bear (sorry), stocked with a re-tooled offensive line, a rejuvenated RB in Matt Forte, an All-Pro WR in Brandon Marshall and an underrated TE in free agent signee Martellus Bennett. Brand new head coach Marc Trestman is a well documented QB guru. If anyone can work out the wrinkles in Cutler’s game and harness all of that incredible potential, Trestman is the guy. Trestman’s West Coast offense is a perfect fit for a guy like Forte, who could have a combined 2,000 yards from scrimmage this year. On defense, yes they’ll miss retired LB Brian Urlacher’s leadership, but they boast the division’s best pair of cornerbacks in Tim Jennings (who led the league in interceptions in 2012) and the great Charles “Peanut” Tillman. Julius Peppers might not quite be the pass rushing monster he once was, but teams still have to game plan for him. And LB Lance Briggs may be a perennial malcontent, but the 11-year veteran is still a vital member of the unit. If he can find a way to replace Urlacher’s gravitas, the Bears defense will border on great.

The Pessimist: There are a lot of punks on this roster. Lance Briggs is a loud-mouthed, divisive presence who was coddled by the previous coaching regime. Brandon Marshall is as capable of bad judgment off the field as he is fighting off a pesky little cornerback on the field. Jay Cutler is a whiney, brittle, head case with no heart. That this team went 10-6 last year only to miss the playoffs again illustrates how tough it is to succeed in the NFL, and that teams need real leadership on and off the field to bring everything together. Brian Urlacher was that guy in the Bears locker room for 13 years, but he’s auditioning for a spot on Fox Sports 1 right now. By all accounts, Trestman is a laid back “player’s coach” and not much of a disciplinarian. If his system clicks immediately, the Bears could be pretty good. But the moment that team faces adversity, things could spin out of control in a hurry.

The Realist: Trestman has installed a West Coast system on offense, which is not something Cutler has ever run before. The guess here is that Trestman, who coaxed an MVP season out of Rich Gannon and got Scott Mitchell to throw for nearly 3,500 yards (Scott Mitchell!), will be able to guide Cutler through the intricacies of the system. Forte was born to play in a system like this, and as long as Cutler can figure things out, Marshall looks poised for another big year. For all the bluster and bravado, Chicago’s defense is starting to age. Peppers is a 12-year vet, while Briggs and Tillman are just a year behind him. They started to slow down last year, and that is usually a process that cannot be reversed. For all the changes and all the optimism that comes with a new coach, this is a 9-7 team that will not make the playoffs.

Minnesota Vikings

The Optimist: Adrian Peterson. Any questions? He thinks he’s going for 2,500 yards and 20 touchdowns this season, and it’s hard to argue with him. He’s running behind the best offensive line in the division, led by the most underrated center in the league, John Sullivan. After Percy Harvin’s melt down last year, the Vikings were really left with only TE Kyle Rudolph as a viable receiving option. Greg Jennings has been brought over from Green Bay, and he will be paired with speedy first round pick Cordarrelle Patterson, to give QB Christian Ponder options to throw to. On the other side of the ball, Minnesota has quietly built themselves a very good defense. The line features All-Pro DE Jared Allen and ALL-Pro DT Kevin Williams. Chad Greenway is a pro bowler strong side linebacker. Free Safety Harrison Smith had the best rookie season for a Viking safety since Joey Browner, and he looks better this year. Xavier Rhodes, another first round draft pick, will pair with Chris Cook to give the Vikings two big physical corners against NFC North wideouts like Megatron and Brandon Marshall. In 2012, the Vikings made the playoffs for the first time in three seasons. This team looks ready to build on that success in 2013.

The Pessimist: Christian Ponder. Any questions? The best QB on the Vikings roster is Christian Ponder. That’s a problem. In 2012, Ponder failed to throw for 200 yards seven times, and in three of those games, he didn’t even go for 100. Ponder is an empty suit. He looks and talks the part of a starting NFL QB, but when it comes time to produce, he fails far more than he succeeds. The Vikings went out and signed Matt Cassel to back him up and, so far in the pre-season, he’s looked like, well, Matt Cassel. If you’re an NFL team without a quarterback, it doesn’t matter who else is on your roster. You will not win.

The Realist: Frankly, that’s a theory the Vikings could legitimately challenge. Yes, it’s true that Ponder is frighteningly bad at times, but he has shown enough at other times that it’s plausible he could become a competent Trent Dilfer/Brad Johnson style game manager. More importantly, the other guy in the Vikings backfield is the reigning MVP, the best player in the league, and one of the best running backs of all time. Head coach Leslie Frasier has put all of his eggs into Adrian Peterson’s basket. The Vikings defense does have questions at linebacker, but there is a very intriguing mix of young talent and veteran leadership on that side of the ball. In the end, you have to believe Peterson will win the Vikings a couple games they shouldn’t win, as will the defense, but there will be other times that they will not be able to overcome the incompetence at such an important position. They’ll be 8-8, and out of the playoffs.

Detroit Lions

The Optimist: When your QB is one of only four guys to have passed for more than 5,000 yards in a single season, and your top WR owns the single season receiving yards record, life can’t be too bad. QB Matthew Stafford has overcome the injury bug that dogged him early in his career to become a proven, consistent passer. It helps that WR Calvin Johnson is a huge target with the best combination of hands and speed in the league. They’ll be bolstered by free agent acquisition RB Reggie Bush, who has looked the part of an every down back in the preseason. The Lions’ offense gathered plenty of yardage last year, it was finishing drives and scoring touchdowns that was the problem. If head coach Jim Schwartz and offensive coordinator Scott Linehan can find a way to get Johnson – or somebody – into the end zone, then this team will be very, very good. Now entering his fourth season, DT Nick Fairley believes he and DT partner Ndamukuong Suh are the best tackle tandem in the league, and he may well be right. The edge rush has gotten younger and faster, especially with the addition of 5th overall pick Ziggy Ansah. Suh is growing into his role as a team leader, stating recently that it’s best not to talk about how good you are, and it’s better to show it. He’ll live up to his words.

The Pessimist: This team is a lot like its town: just when you think they’re getting up off the mat, they slip and fall back down. After a 10-6 campaign in 2011, the Lions had a 4-12 season last year, highlighted (if that’s the right word) by a horrific eight game losing streak. Their lack of touchdowns revolved around the fact that defenses were able to key on Johnson, who was their only real offensive weapon. Schwarz seems to think guys like Bush and WR Ryan Broyles will spread the offense out, and that may be true. However, if the offensive line, which was porous last year and has not improved, doesn’t play much, much better, then nothing will change. Defensively, this team is not good at all. Suh is a head case, who is capable of getting himself suspended for a season with his emotional outbursts. The linebacking corps lost its best player when Justin Durant signed with Dallas, the secondary is old, and wasn’t that good to begin with. Yes, the Lions added Reggie Bush. Hurray. Learn to block.

The Realist: If it weren’t for the presence of Megatron, the Lions would be little more than a poor man’s Green Bay Packers. A good QB who can make things happen, hoping to add the facet of a running game to what could be a top offense. It’s a very good bet that Johnson will score more than the five touchdowns he managed last year, and Reggie Bush is a guy who has to be accounted for. The problem is the defense is mediocre at best, and the offensive line is worse. This may be a passing league now, but you still have to control the line of scrimmage. That’s not happening in Detroit this year. The Lions will improve this year, but only if you can call 5-11 and improvement.