ZB NFL Preview 2013: AFC West

The Denver Broncos will return to the field in 2013 to take another shot at a Super bowl run under the command of Peyton Manning. As the Broncos add key weapons to cement themselves as one of the NFL’s elite teams, the Chiefs, Chargers and Raiders look to revamp and reload. The Broncos should have no problem mopping up the AFC West, but it will be interesting to see how the rest of the division does with new players and coaches.

Denver Broncos

The Optimist: The Broncos finished second in overall points in 2012 and will look to continue that pace with the additions of former New England Patriots wide receiver Wes Welker and rookie running back Montee Ball. Also new in 2013, is Adam Gase as Offensive Coordinator. Gase, 34, is in his fifth year on staff, promises to bring elements of an up-tempo, spread offensive attack. On defense, the Broncos introduce new talent including first-round draft pick Slyvester Williams, defensive tackle Terrance Knighton, and veteran safety Quentin Jammer. Best case scenario is that the Broncos stampede the rest of the division with offense and shuffle the pieces on defense to repeat as a top five unit.

The Pessimist: The Broncos lose arguably one of the league’s best pass rushers in Elvis Dumervil in an interesting contract debacle. The Broncos also jettisoned veteran running back Willis McGahee who was a steady contributor during his time in Denver. While the team is loaded on offense, if something happens to Manning, all bets are off. Brock Osweiler is still a project and the talented receiving corps of Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Welker, Joel Dreessen, Jacob Tamme, and Julius Thomas will be for not. There are still questions with how the defensive line will function together and if they will be able to repeat as a pass-rushing, turnover happy defense.

The Realist: Hard to see the Broncos not running through the division easily and quickly locking up another AFC West title and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Everything hinges on player/coach Manning and rightfully so as he approaches the final part of his Hall of Fame career. Based on an early look at the schedule, I have a hard time seeing the Broncos losing more than three games all year. Outlook: 13-3 or better.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Optimist: Andy Reid rolls into town sprinkles some of his magic QB dust on new starting QB Alex Smith and the Chiefs are transformed from the league’s worst team in 2012 (2-14) into a Wildcard favorite in the AFC West for 2013. Chiefs fans got lucky when they got their first choice of head coaches and landed Reid, he previously longest tenured NFL head coach. Reid got to work right away, making an impact all over the organization and has drawn rave reviews from onlookers and players for his relentless drive and attention to detail. Gone is the paranoia of previous General Manager Scott Pioli, and in is John Dorsey, previously with the Packers and Reid’s good buddy. The talented, six player Pro Bowl roster got even better with the addition of cornerback Sean Smith from the Dolphins. Tamba Hali and Derrick Johnson lead a strong linebacking corps and the secondary, while not deep, is on the upswing with talent like Brandon Flowers and Dunta Robinson. The offense will flow through Jamaal Charles and new player caller Smith. Charles is one of the NFL’s elite ball carriers and looks to return to top form this season. Smith has been looking comfortable in camp with the West Coast, high volume pass offense that fits him well. While they may be a year or two removed from challenging Denver to the Division title they should have a nice shot at making the playoffs.

The Pessimist: The Chiefs retained Dwayne Bowe in free agency but there are big questions on what other pass catchers are going to be there to catch the ball from Smith. A.J. Jenkins (acquired in trade on August 20th), Donnie Avery, and Dexter McCluster form a group of receivers that have shown flashes, but haven’t been more than average playmakers in the league so far. Doubts still remain on Smith, a former number one overall pick, and whether he can consistently lead a big play offense and put a team on his back. Lastly, the question remains if Andy Reid can do it again. While Reid brings an experience level and confidence to Arrowhead, this is also a coach known for sometimes questionable play calling and big missteps at important times in games – at least that is what Philly fans will tell you.

The Realist: There is enough talent on this team and enough winnable game early (see Jacksonville, Tennessee and Oakland) that the Chiefs get back on track and finish 9-7. Good enough for second in the AFC West.

San Diego Chargers

The Optimist: It is the end of an era in San Diego as both former head coach Norv Turner and General Manager AJ Smith make an exit. Enter for Offensive Coordinator from the Denver Broncos, Mike McCoy. McCoy promises to bring a flexible scheme to the offense with new offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt. McCoy is known for his ability to make simple adjustments in scheme to mask weaknesses of personnel. The good news is McCoy inherits a team that has firepower on offense, including the talented young receiver group of Vincent Brown, Keenan Allen, and Eddie Royal. Ryan Mathews, the Chargers first round pick in 2010, looks to be completely healed from two broken collar bones suffered in 2012. On the defensive side of the ball, notable additions include defensive end Dwight Freeney and controversial rookie middle linebacker Manti T’eo who has looked good in first practices. The optimist says the flexible scheme of McCoy combined with veteran quarterback Phillip Rivers and a group of young talented, developing players should be good enough for a rebound and stay out of the cellar of the AFC West.

The Pessimist: The window has slammed shut for the group of veterans acquired by Smith and coached by Turner – this is a rebuild for sure. Antonio Gates was held back by injury during 2012 and questions remain if he can regain his stature as an elite passing catching tight end. The offensive line is questionable at best, allowing 49 sacks last year the most in the AFC. First reports from training camp confirm that the o-line is still in flux with the left tackle spot still up for grabs with King Dunlap and Max Starks competing for the position. Worst of all, the injury bug has bit and bit hard. Starting linebacker Melvin Ingram tore his ACL in May. Danario Alexander, wide receiver, ended his season early on August 6th with a torn right ACL. As of August 14th, Keenan Allen is struggling with a PCL issue that has bothered him before and wide receiver Malcolm Floyd has a strained knee.

The Realist: The San Diego Chargers are a rebuilding ball club with enough young talent supplanting aging veterans to finish third in the division but definitely below .500. The Bolts finish 6-10.

Oakland Raiders

The Optimist: It’s year two in General Manager Reggie McKenzie’s overhaul. Head Coach Dennis Allen returns and brings in new offensive coordinator Greg Olson who looks to install a power run game to replace the zone blocking scheme favored by the regime just a year ago. This could work out, as Olson has put together solid running attacks while in St Louis and Tampa and has a talented group of young lineman that could lead the way for the speedy, but oft injured, running back Darren McFadden (who only averages playing 11 games per year, never topping 13). The Raiders return a capable group of wide receivers to move the chains in Denarius Moore, Rod Streator, Juron Criner, and Jacoby Ford. On the defensive side of the ball, Oakland looks to integrate a barrage of new players as only free safety Tyvon Branch and defensive end Lamarr Houston are the only returning starters from 2012. Former Pro Bowler Charles Woodson brings much needed experience and confidence to the secondary and corners Tracy Porter and Mike Jenkins were also added in free agency. The reconstruction is probably necessary as members of the Silver and Black only won four games in all of 2012.

The Pessimist: It will be difficult for former Seattle backup quarterback Matt Flynn to replace Carson Palmer who produced 22 total touchdowns and passed for over 4,000 yards last year. Without Palmer, who seemed to buoy the offense in 2012, the question remains where will the offensive production come from in 2013? There doesn’t seem to be a clear answer. Oakland will be without playmaking tight end Brandon Meyers who exited for the New York Giants and wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey who was released during the offseason. The lack of playmaking, outside of McFadden, seems to the theme. On defense, Oakland spent its first round pick on cornerback DJ Hayden who was just cleared for full contact swapping his red medical non-contact jersey for a black one. Hayden joins and aging and inexperienced defense that will have its hands full when playing divisional opponents Denver and Kansas twice per year.

The Realist: The Raiders haven’t had a winning season in 10 years and the 11th seems inevitable as they enter 2013. Oakland appears to have one of the most talent depleted rosters in the NFL, which will have them jockeying with the Chargers for last place in the division; the Raiders finish the season at 3-13 or 4-12.