ZB NFL Preview 2013: AFC South

After chasing Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts for so long, Houston fans had to be thinking it was their turn to reign supreme over the AFC South for a few years when Manning missed the 2011 season due to his neck injury and subsequently moved on to Denver last year. And the Texans are a solidly run organization with the talent to be competitive for some time to come. But the Colts have come storming back. Under the leadership of Chuck Pagano, Bruce Arians and Manning’s replacement Andrew Luck, Indy returned to prominence much faster than expected. It’ll likely be a two-team race at the top of the division for at least another year or two, as the Titans and Jaguars are sorting, yet again, through some growing pains. The battle for the top should be one of the more interesting races of the 2013 season.

Houston Texans

The Optimist: The Texans are coming off of their second consecutive AFC South division title, and a season with their first playoff victory in franchise history. Their offensive core returns, led by QB Matt Schaub (4,000 yards, 22 TD), Arian Foster (1,600 total yards, 17 TDs) and Andre Johnson (112 reception, 1,600 yards). Rookie DeAndre Hopkins should give Schaub one of the stronger secondary targets he’s had, too. On defense, end JJ Watt emerged as an All-Pro and won the AP Defensive player of the year award, and will be rejoined by ILB Brian Cushing. Barring significant injury, the Texans should be at the top of their division again this year.

The Pessimist: The Texans really didn’t do a lot to improve the team from last year. Their big free agent signing was S Ed Reed, who is over the hill and has struggled to even take the field for practice so far. He’ll attempt to replace Glover Quin, a solid 16-game starter who left for Detroit. The offensive line has been questionable for several years, and all that was done to improve it was adding third and sixth round tackles. Combined with Arian Foster’s overusage and preseason injuries, and Ben Tate’s penchant for not be able to answer the bell, there has to be concern that the Texans are ripe for an upset from the Colts and could possibly miss the playoffs.

The Realist: The Texans have to be considered the favorites in the division, but the upstart Colts certainly could knock them off their throne. Fortunately for the Texans, they have the fifth easiest schedule based on opponent’s 2012 record. Unfortunately, the Colts have the third easiest.

Indianapolis Colts

The Optimist: It’s hard not to be optimistic if you’re a Colts fan. After 13 years of being led by Peyton Manning, during which time the team suffered just two losing seasons (including Manning’s 3-13 rookie season), the Colts rebounded from the 2011 debacle during which Manning was injured by earning the right to draft Andrew Luck, who led the team to an 11-5 record in his rookie season. Luck already took the team on a surprise playoff run in 2012. And the team now looks on its way to a quarter-century straight of guaranteed near-elite quarterback play, a stretch rivaled only possibly by the Green Bay Packers with Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. The Colts hoped to capitalize on strong momentum generated last season through a number of additions (Ahmad Bradshaw, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Donald Thomas and Stanley Havili) and defense (LaRon Landry, Erik Walden). All of these players should be able to complement a solid core as the Colts try to reclaim the AFC South crown.

The Pessimist: The Colts lost two significant pieces from their 2013 success. Dwight Freeney may have had just five sacks, but he’s been one of the rare defensive bright spots on this team for years, and his loss will be felt. More importantly, Bruce Arians, who took over when Chuck Pagano was forced to leave the team with leukemia, left to be the head coach of the Arizona Cardinals. Gone is the Air Coryell style offense that Andrew Luck thrived in. In comes Pep Hamilton and his West Coast style of offense. Everyone wants to hype the fact that Luck played under Hamilton at Stanford, which is true. But will he be able to have the same level of success in the pros? Do the Colts have the right talent to make the West Coast attack work?

The Realist: To be that pessimistic about the Colts, you have to have an Andy level of angst for your team. Of all the quarterbacks moving into their second season of starting in the NFL, Luck seems the least likely to regress, even with some questionable talent around him. He had pretty much the same level of questionable talent last year. Ahmad Bradshaw is an improvement, even if he will probably miss time—and Vick Ballard is an adequate backup. Reggie Wayne and T.Y. Hilton should be a solid tandem. The defense may still struggle, but Luck should keep the offense in games and move this team toward another playoff run.

Tennessee Titans

The Optimist: The Titans finally appear to be heading in the right direction—they added a couple of offensive linemen that might make a difference in getting Chris Johnson back to his glory days with guards Andy Levitre and first round draft choice Chance Warmack. Johnson’s looked good in the preseason, and even in his down years he hasn’t been as bad as people think—he just wasn’t as good as they expected. Safety Bernard Pollard and tackle Sammie Hill were brought in to help improve to the defense and a total of 14 other free agents and eight draft picks join as well. The Titans also brought Gregg Williams in as a defensive assistant. It remains to be seen what type of motivational stimulus he may provide the defense now that his bounty system has been uncovered and subsequently shamed. But he’s generally considered a great defensive mind and he’ll surely be out to prove something. Ultimately this team has a realistic shot at making the playoffs—but it needs Jake Locker to step up at the QB position to do so. An improved Chris Johnson gives him the best shot to do just that.

The Pessimist: Seventeen free agents. Eight draft picks. Big whoop. Locker is still a big key to the Titans’ success, but did they really do enough to help him out? Will a rookie offensive lineman and a $47 million guard coming off a knee surgery help him improve that 55 percent completion ratio. Safety net Matt Hasselbeck is gone, replaced by Ryan Fitzpatrick—so at least fans will likely stop constantly yelling for the backup. And the offense better perform, because defense is still a huge liability. Pollard is such a great player that he’s on his fourth team in seven years, having already been released twice. And Sammie Hill’s career highlights on his Wikipedia page include being drafted and signing with the Titans four years later. Gregg Williams better have some tricks up his sleeve if this unit is going to perform.

The Realist: The Titans do appear to be headed in the right direction, but the quarterback situation is too big of a question mark to realistically expect playoffs. It’s not out of the realm of possibilities, and they do have the 10^th easiest schedule going into the season. But to expect it would be too much. The biggest question coming out of another third place finish in the South is whether or not the Titans show enough potential for Mike Munchak to keep his job.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Optimist: The Jaguars have new uniforms this season. And they have the first ever pro player to be designated as Offensive Weapon in Denard Robinson. He joins a hopefully healed Maurice Jones-Drew as the top weapons on offense. Tackle Luke Joeckel was the second overall pick. And Jacksonville didn’t really lose any free agents of note. Did I mention the new uniforms?

The Pessimist: Where to begin? Gus Bradley enters a tough situation in his first year as head coach. Jacksonville has an unproven quarterback in Blaine Gabbert whom many have already written off as he enters his third season. The second overall pick is being played out of position, so they can keep malcontent (but relatively solid) Eugene Monroe around for one more year before probably losing him to free agency. The “offensive weapon” has already been downgraded to offensive peashooter due to his inability to tackle 12 different positions at once. The team’s best wide receiver, Justin Blackmon, is suspended for at least four games AND he got into a fight with teammates on the sideline during a preseason game. And this is just the offense—the defensive situation is just as dire. Didn’t lose any free agents of note? That’s because the team barely has any players of note. And those new uniforms? Hideous.

The Realist: See: The Pessimist. Sorry Jaguar fans. Both of you. And those uniforms really are ugly.