ZB NFL Preview 2013: AFC North

The AFC North is home to the defending Super Bowl champions for the fourth time in 12 years. Not too shabby, and there may be a fifth in the wings. The Ravens, while still looking like solid contenders may or may not have taken a step back. Cincinnati has taken a step forward, but how far remains to be seen. Pittsburgh looks to be treading water, and Cleveland’s hopes of improving this year are spitting up blood on the sidelines in Detroit. Once again, this division is a two team race. Don’t bet against the champs.

Baltimore Ravens

The Optimist: The Ravens are the defending Super Bowl champions. They are the only team in the NFL that has won at least one playoff game in each of the last five years. Head coach John Harbaugh is regarded as one of the best in the league, and his late year switch from Cam Cameron to Jim Caldwell at offensive coordinator may have propelled his team to the championship. Quarterback Joe Flacco had a career year in yardage and a career low in interceptions in 2012. He followed that with an 11 touchdown-zero interception playoff run. Ray Rice is one of the elite backs in the NFL, and backup Bernard pierce would be a starter on half the teams in the NFL. WR Torrey Smith has averaged more than 17 yards per catch in his career. The defense has lost a couple huge pieces, no doubt, but the additions of OLB Elvis Dumervil, ILB Daryl Smith, and S Michael Huff should not be dismissed. DT Haloti Ngata and OLB Terrell Suggs still anchor a unit that will operate in the upper echelons of the league.

The Pessimist: The question is: can they replace enough of what they lost – on the fly – to keep the championship momentum rolling? Where’s the leadership in the clubhouse going to come from? Retired linebacker Ray Lewis is regarded as one of the finest leaders the NFL has ever seen. His top lieutenant, All-Pro Ed Reed, is now in Houston. On the offensive side, the vocal, strong willed C Matt Birk also hung it up. Those are gigantic holes to fill, and certainly cannot be fixed in one offseason. Flacco had a good 2012 season, but he’s now lost WR Anquan Boldin, and TE Dennis Pitta. Smith is a talented receiver who has not put a full season together up to this point.

The Realist: They’ve done enough. Flacco has the look of a quarterback coming into his own. He’s armed with not just a shiny new ring, but a big fat contract, as well. His confidence should be at an all time high, and a confident quarterback can make a star out of an inconsistent receiver like Smith. Rice doesn’t appear to have lost a step yet. He is the most versatile threat in this league, and at times can carry an entire offense on his own. Defensively, the additions of Dumervil and Smith should be all that is required to keep things rolling. This is an 11-5 team that should have one of the top two slots in the AFC playoffs.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Optimist: The Cincinnati Bengals have made the playoffs three of the last four years, and are a fashionable pick to make some noise in the AFC. The strong defense features a line that must be regarded as one of the best in the league. The secondary is led by serially underrated CB Leon Hall. The linebacking corps has been bolstered by the addition of former Defensive Player of the Year James Harrison, who should provide real leadership both on and off the field. On offense, third-year quarterback Andy Dalton is playing behind a veteran offensive line. AJ Green is an All-World WR, who should improve on his 97 catches, 1350 yards and 11 touchdowns from a year ago. Starting RB Benjarvus Green-Ellis was a 1000 yard rusher in 2012, and will be paired with current pre-season “it-boy” Giovani Bernard. Two solid tight ends (including 2013 first round pick Tyler Eifert) will give offensive coordinator Jay Gruden plenty of toys to keep opposing defenses on their heels. Nearly every position either returns a starter or features a perceived upgrade. The Bengals could capture the AFC North and their first playoff victory(s) in 23 years.

The Pessimist: 23 years of Mike Brown’s ownership, and 23 years of no playoff victories. Coincidence? You decide. Despite being called the worst middle linebacker in the NFL, the Bengals re-signed Rey Maualuga in the offseason. Nickel corner Adam “Pac-Man” Jones faces trial in October for assault of a woman at a Cincinnati night club, and the team has no idea who will play strong safety. Dalton, while producing wins, doesn’t strike much fear into the hearts of defensive coordinators. The offensive line allowed Dalton to be sacked 46 times last year. Green-Ellis is an average NFL running back at best, and despite the hype, Bernard is a tiny (5’9” 208 lbs) rookie who has exactly zero NFL carries. Green is a man among boys, but he is also the only wide receiver worth anything on the Bengals roster. If Eifert doesn’t produce quickly, Green could be looking at triple-team coverage all year long (with a bad knee).

The Realist: The Bengals are a nice team with an interesting mix of veteran leadership and young athleticism, particularly on defense. Offensively, you have to wonder if there’s enough there for sustained success. The schedule is quite favorable, but another 10-6 season won’t be enough to win the division.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Optimist: Well, let’s see…Ben Roethlisberger is headed into the season looking hale and healthy. Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders are competent, if not spectacular receivers. When healthy, Heath Miller is a fine TE. Rashard Mendenhall has taken his dysfunctional career to Arizona, creating further opportunity for Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer, at least until second round pick Le’Veon Bell returns from a possible Lisfranc injury. Maurkice Pouncey is a three time All-Pro center, anchoring a decent offensive line. Defensively, the Linebackers remain the strength of the unit. LaMarr Woodley and Lawrence Timmons lose their old pal James Harrison, but get an exciting young pal in Jarvis Jones. Troy Polamalu is one of the best safeties the Steelers have ever had, and that’s a pretty august list. He starts the year healthy, and hopes to play his first injury free season since the George W. Bush administration. The Steelers finished at 8-8 last year, but at least six of those losses came very late in the game, or in overtime. Had this roster been healthy, it might have been a very different season indeed.

The Pessimist: Well, let’s see…Roethlisberger can throw the ball, but he has a hard time staying healthy. Bell was going to be the featured back, but he’s hurt. When healthy, Miller is a fine tight end. However he tore his ACL in the final game of the 2012 season. Polamalu is one of the all time best, but he can’t stay healthy anymore. Do you sense a pattern? The Steelers are either old and brittle, or (in the case of Bell), just brittle. Mike Wallace, who departed for Miami, wasn’t going to make anybody forget Lynn Swann or even Hines Ward, but he was a legitimate deep threat whose speed defenses had to respect. Without that deep threat, Roethlisberger, Dwyer and Redman will see more eight man, and maybe nine man fronts. The defense won’t embarrass the organization, but don’t look for them on too many top ten lists at the end of the year.

The Realist: The Steelers are an aging team swimming upstream in a competitive division. As long as they have a quarterback like Big Ben, and playmakers on defense like Polamalu, then anything is possible. The running game may well turn out to be something useful; perhaps Mike Tomlin can get something out of Felix Jones that Jerry Jones and his rotating door of coaches and coordinators couldn’t. Brown and Sanders should be ok, as long as Roethlisberger is healthy. Will they improve on the 8-8 record of last year? Well, technically, 9-7 is a better record. But this team will not be in the playoffs.

Cleveland Browns

The Optimist: You can hear the whispers this preseason. Like a warm fall wind, tempting, but ultimately deceiving, it quietly says to you “Y’know, Brandon Weeden doesn’t look too bad right now.” Could it be that Good Norv Turner has returned to the NFL? Not Bad Norv Turner, the NFL head coach, but Good Norv Turner, the offensive coordinator. Has he brought his magic ways to Cleveland? Could Weeden be the next Troy Aikman? Well, that’s doubtful, but they might have a shot at seven wins this year. Trent Richardson looks like a stud, plain and simple, and the offensive line is up-and-coming. When Josh Gordon returns from his cough syrup soaked suspension, he could pair with Jordan Cameron to give Browns fans the tandem they thought they had in the days of Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow, Jr. The defense seems to be improving. If and when first round pick Barkevious Mingo returns from his bruised lung, the kid’s got a real future.

The Pessimist: Problem is, Turner doesn’t coach the defense, nor is he a faith healer. Mingo suffered a bruised lung in the second pre-season game against Detroit. This wasn’t just any bruised lung, mind you. He was spitting up blood on the sidelines, and two different thoracic surgeons told the Cleveland Plain Dealer that Mingo could have died. The rookie could be out for months. Without Mingo, it’s tough to say the Browns have a playmaker on defense. Do the names Desmond Bryant, Tashaun Gipson or Phillip Taylor mean much to you? Nope. Me neither. The Browns may score 21 points a game, but they are sure to give up 30.

The Realist: Realistically, this is a bad situation. The loss of Mingo cannot be underrated. When you pick sixth in the draft, you’re picking someone to be an impact starter. If the kid’s out for three months, the Browns could well be picking higher than six in 2014. There is no doubt that Turner will help things quite a bit – and I find it kind of amusing that all the talk is about Turner coming in as OC, and not Rob Chudzinski taking over as head coach – but there is much to overcome there, as well. Weeden may have looked ok in the first two pre-season games, but in the third he looked lost and unable to figure out what that vaunted Indianapolis Colts defense was throwing at him. He’ll be without Gordon for the first two games, and then you have to figure two more for him to get back into the swing of things. Richardson is going to be counted on to carry a heavy load for the first month of the season. Good as he is, it won’t be enough. Say hello to 3-13 Browns fans. See you next year.