ZB NFL Preview 2013: AFC East

The AFC East has been New England and everybody else for more than a decade. The Patriots had a tough offseason, losing players to injury, free agency, incarceration and who knows what else. But Bill Belichick and crew remain the class of the division, at least for one more year. Miami and Buffalo appear to be headed in the right direction, but neither team has solved all of its problems. And the Jets … well, the Jets have a long way to go to get back to being the team that just a few years ago went to back-to-back AFC Championship games.

New England Patriots

The Optimist:

In an offseason where the Patriots lose three of their top four reception leaders to free agency and/or incarceration and the fourth for at least the early parts of the season due to injury issues, Bill Belichick still has Tom Brady. Wes Welker was replaced by Danny Amendola. Wide receiver Kenbrell Thompkins and tight end Zach Sudfeld have emerged in camp as undrafted free agents who could perform well in major roles right out of the gate. Stevan Ridley returns from a 1261 yard, 12 touchdown season for a likely even larger role in 2014 running behind a line considered by many to be the best in the NFL. It doesn’t seem to matter who the pieces are, this team keeps humming along as an offensive juggernaut. Some of the young pieces on defense have started to show they belong in the NFL as well.

The Pessimist:

There remains a lot of uncertainty at the backup quarterback position. If Tom Brady gets hurt this team could be in trouble. Brady has made a lot of no-name wide receivers look like stars in the past, but this group, beyond Amendola, is about as anonymous as it gets at this point. He also loses security blanked Danny Woodhead and Woodhead’s replacement, Shane Vereen, is going to have to step up into a bigger role. Vince Wilfork, Adrian Wilson and some key pieces of the defense are beginning to age off of a unit that was 25^th overall and 29^th against the pass in 2012.

The Realist:

There are more questions on the Patriots roster this season than there have been in quite a few years. But New England benefits from playing in the AFC East, where the competition is improving but unproven and unlikely to challenge for at least division supremacy in 2013. I don’t know yet if the Patriots have another Super Bowl run in them or not, but they’ll be the runaway division winner again and once Belichick gets to January, it’s a gutty gambler who bets against him.

Miami Dolphins

The Optimist:

Ryan Tannehill returns for a second season. Though he was lesser heralded than RGIII, Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck, he showed enough as a rookie to give the Dolphins hope that they’ve got their first franchise quarterback since Dan Marino left. The team overhauled its receiving corps, bringing Mike Wallace in from Pittsburgh to serve as a deep threat and open things up for Brian Hartline and Co. Lamar Miller looks like he could be a solid running back. The new offensive firepower could help a team that lost five games by a touchdown or less in 2012 win some of those games this year. Cameron Wake anchors a solid defensive line. The draft wasn’t sexy, but it did produce five defensive draft picks that should help improve a unit that struggles statistically in 2012.

The Pessimist:

The Dolphins need Jonathan Martin to step up and take over the left tackle position from the departed Long. Early returns have not been positive. The team was counting on Dustin Keller to be a threat in the pass game, but he’s been lost to a grotesque knee injury. The Dolphins broke the bank to acquire linebacker Dannell Ellerbe, who has never started more than seven games in a season and who benefitted from playing around a great supporting cast in Baltimore, and Mike Wallace, whose main route is the fly pattern and who went into a shell last season when Pittsburgh didn’t pony up to extend his contract. These additions could be boom but they could be busts.

The Realist:

This is the most interesting the Dolphins have had a chance to be in quite awhile. The 7-9 season put up by Tannehill and Co. last year should have fans excited about seeing the team take the next step. I don’t think this team can challenge New England for the division. The gap there is still wide. But Miami could contend for a wild card spot. I don’t think they get there this year, but this is a team that could be on the right track.

Buffalo Bills:

The Optimist:

C.J. Spiller looked great when Fred Jackson got injured in 2012 and new coach Doug Marrone sounds inclined to see whether the former Clemson runner can take the next step as a feature back. Robert Woods joins the wide receiver corps, giving the team a solid tandem between him and Stevie Johnson. The offensive line has been pretty good in the past and, if it can overcome the loss of Andy Levitre, should remain solid.

The Pessimist:

The biggest question facing the Bills this season is whether Marrone, a college coach, can come in and turn around a moribund NFL franchise. It’ll also be interesting to see just how much of a load Spiller can carry, particularly when one of the league’s top guards, Levitre, moved on to Tennessee during the offseason. The quarterback position remains unsettled as well. Kevin Kolb could be forced into concussion-related retirement. EJ Manual may eventually work his way into being a solid starter, but he was drafted as a project. That means heading into the season there’s a real possibility that free agent rookie Jeff Tuel could begin the season as the starter. Bookend defensive ends Mark Anderson and Mario Wiliams are skilled, but susceptible to injury in recent years.

The Realist:

Marrone did not inherit an empty cupboard. There is talent on this squad on both sides of the ball. But there also are inexperience and a lot of turnover in some key positions. There is upside here, but it’s not going to be enough to overtake New England or make the playoffs. The fight this year is with Miami for second in the East. Depending on how the rookie QBs develop, I think I like the Bills more in 2014 than this season.

New York Jets

The Optimist:

Hmm. On an offense woefully lacking in talent, the defense is going to have to step up big in order for the Jets to have any success in 2013. And the defense has some pieces on which the team should be able to count. Darrelle Revis was traded, but Dee Milliner was drafted to replace him. Milliner was generally considered the top corner in the draft. Sheldon Richardson is a tackle being asked to play 3-4 end, but he’s still a solid rookie talent. Quinton Coples, Muhammad Wilkerson and Demario Davis are all young players with the potential to keep this defense competitive. And Rex Ryan and Co. appear to have designed a scheme that can show multiple looks in trying to keep opposing offenses off balance. This coupled with some key additions in the run game might give Jets fans hope of staying competitive in some games.

The Pessimist:

The Jets got sniped on draft day when St. Louis jumped up to take Tavon Austin. New York did manage to salvage the first round, netting a couple solid defensive players, but the miss leaves the team woefully short on wide receivers. In fact the offensive skill talent as a whole is made up of guys who should be complementary pieces and role players rather than anyone who jumps out as the top of a receiving corps, particularly with Santonio Holmes out. The Jets brought in Mike Goodson to help out with the run attack and he promptly went out and got arrested on drug possession and weapons charges. Ivory should be a solid contributor toting the rock, but he’s got a history of injuries. And, probably most importantly, Mark Sanchez has failed to show enough improvement to cement himself as the leader of the team and rookie Geno Smith hasn’t looked ready. Quarterback play has, in fact, been so spotty to this point that some fans are clamoring for the dynamic duo of rag-armed Greg McElroy and undrafted free agent Matt Simms to start in week one. Long gone is any bank Rex Ryan had earned for making AFC Championship game runs in his first two seasons at the helm. His team began resembling an episode of Animal Planet last year. He was lucky to be retained for one more season and this is very likely his last chance.

The realist:

General Manager John Idzik likely has a plan for what he’d like this team to look like in a few years, but none of the moves he has made this offseason are likely to turn into short-term wins for the Jets. This is a woefully under talented offense that will struggle to produce against even the weakest of the league’s defenses. The defense has some talent and some promising young players, but not enough to overcome the offense. Ryan might not make it to the December 29 finale at Miami without buying a ticket. This team will challenge for the top pick in the 2014 draft.