Kyle Rodriguez
Editor at Colts Authority and Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report
Twitter: @ColtsAuth_Kyle/@ColtsAuthority
His team picked eleventh
RB Trent Richardson
WR Dez Bryant
RB DeMarco Murray
WR Victor Cruz
RB Ryan Mathews
WR Steve Smith
QB Andrew Luck
WR DeAndre Hopkins
TE Jermichael Finley
Texans Defense
QB Ben Roethlisberger
K Garrett Hartley
His thoughts:
With a very deep draft at quarterback, I knew I wanted to wait until at least the seventh round to pick one up. I also was fairly confident with the tight end depth in this year’s draft – outside of Jimmy Graham, there aren’t any tight ends who are going to compare to an elite receiver (unless Gronk stays healthy), but plenty of TEs available in later rounds who will give you high production. Basically, I knew I wanted to load up on backs and wide receivers, especially in a PPR league.
With Trent Richardson falling to me at the eleventh pick, it was a no-brainer. Richardson’s ADP has been hovering around 6-8, but he’s been labeled as an injury risk, which I’m assuming led to the slight drop. While there is some risk there, Richardson’s upside is too good to pass up here. He had the fifth best average per game last year in PPR scoring due to his ability to play on every down and catch passes out of the backfield (51 catches last year).
Next I needed to pick up an elite receiving target. The top three targets left were Brandon Marshall, A.J. Green and Dez Bryant. All three have elite talent, so it came down to other factors for me. Marshall could have huge numbers in Marc Trestman’s system, but with 181 targets last season, I don’t think his usage has much more room to grow. Green is a great player, but I’m not a big believer in Andy Dalton and Cincinnati now has Tyler Eifert to take some targets as well. I trust Tony Romo more than either of the other two quarterbacks, and Bryant came on strong at the end of last season. I see him having a more consistent year in 2013.
In my next group (I picked 11th, so my picks came in clumps) I picked DeMarco Murray and Victor Cruz. Murray is another high risk/high reward guy at running back, while Cruz is a reliable receiver with potential to have an even bigger year in 2013. I see him bouncing back to 1,250-plus yards this year and he should be good for 80-plus receptions again. I would pull up a similar haul in rounds five and six, picking up Ryan Mathews and Steve Smith (who I think is underrated in 2013).
By the end of the seventh round QB was getting pretty thin, so I took the homer pick: Andrew Luck. The change in offensive coordinator is a bit overstated for Luck’s fantasy numbers, in my opinion. The Colts are still going to have to throw to win and I see Luck’s interceptions going down and touchdowns rising. With a (hopefully) rising yards per attempt average, his yards shouldn’t decrease much even if his attempts decline. I picked up DeAndre Hopkins in the 8th round, a bit of a reach, but a player I am really high on with established vets Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels drawing a lot of defensive attention away from him.
I filled out my roster with the next four picks, grabbing Jermichael Finley in the 9th, Houston defense in the 10th, Ben Roethlisberger in the 11th and Garrett Hartley in the final round.
In hindsight, the only changes I would have made was taking Daryl Richardson over Mathews in the 5th and considering Jay Cutler over Roethlisberger in the 11th. Richardson is less of an injury risk than Mathews, and Murray and T. Richardson are already pushing my luck in that regard. Meanwhile, I’m intrigued by Cutler’s new offensive system.
Overall, however, I’m happy with my roster. I love my receiver core, which will also fill the flex spot in the PPR league. Running back is a bit risky, but has a ton of potential, while I have solid starters at QB, TE and defense.
For an analysis of the entire mock draft, click here.
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