Two weeks ago we featured the Chiefs/Broncos game in Denver as the Game of the Week. I thought there was a decent chance this week’s would be the rematch. But with both teams losing last week, an equally compelling game pretty easily overtook it.
Monday night’s contest between Seattle and New Orleans features the veteran superstar QB taking on the second-year budding superstar. It’s Marshawn Lynch and it’s Jimmy Graham. It’s two solid defenses … and, with Seattle sitting at 10-1 and New Orleans at 9-2, it’s a game that could determine home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.
Bill Stephens, a writer with SaintsGab and Nick Ashbourne, editor of 12th Man Rising stopped by to share their thoughts on how their teams will fare in one of the season’s most important games so far.
Bill Stephens, SaintsGab (Twitter: @SaintsGab)
WHY THE SAINTS WILL WIN
Game of the week? You bet, this is a game that both the Saints and Seahawks have had circled on their calendars for weeks now, the only question was what shape would the two teams be in when the game arrived. Guess what? The two teams are seed #1 and #2 in the NFC.
Get ready for a classic.
The Saints offense has gotten better week by week. That’s quite a statement, but it’s the truth. At the beginning of the season the running game was nonexistent and the pass protection was nothing like it has been in seasons past. But game by game the running game with Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles has shown improvement. That coupled with the excellent short passing game has given the offensive line the edge they need when the Saints go deep.
The Saints also lead the league in time of possession, which keeps the defense fresh and hungry along with keeping the Seahawks offense on the sideline, which will help the Saints defense in negating the running game of the Seahawks. The Saints defense has been excellent against teams with running QBs. Just ask San Francisco. The Saints are not thought of as a physical team, but that’s only by the teams that haven’t played them.
WHY THE SAINTS COULD LOSE
The biggest advantage Seattle has is well documented and that is of course their home field advantage. The biggest unknown for Seattle is how the defensive backfield will adjust with the well documented issues of Brandon Browner and Walter Thurmond.
But this week for Seattle to be effective it will once again have to rely on Marshawn Lynch running the ball effectively and Russell Wilson being able to make plays with his legs. For the Saints defense, keeping Wilson in the pocket when he drops back will be priority #1. The second priority is neutralizing Lynch. If the Seahawks can get those facets of their game going as they would like to, it will keep the Saints offense on the sideline.
PREDICTION
Both teams have had extra time to prepare for this game, I’d be willing to bet that both coaching staffs wish they had even more. If the Saints control the time of possession like they have all year and if they can keep Wilson from making plays with his legs should come out on top. My prediction is 33 – 21
Nick Ashbourne, 12th Man Rising (Twitter: @Nick_Ashbourne, @12thMan_Rising)
WHY THE SEAHAWKS WILL WIN:
Whenever we are talking about a Seahawks home game, the assumption is that they are going to win. This team has yet to lose at home during the Russell Wilson era and the Saints face a long journey to Seattle. Drew Brees and the Saints offense have always moved the ball far more effectively in their own climate-controlled dome and this environment will be far more hostile. Monday Night’s forecast calls for isolate showers and temperatures around 36 degrees. That type of climate suits the run-based offense of the Seahawks better than it does the Saints.
Speaking of the running game, Marshawn Lynch has 324 yards on the ground and three rushing touchdowns in the last two games. The Saints allow 4.8 yards per carry on the ground. They are asking for a heavy dose of Seattle’s power running game and they are going to get it. The Seahawks look likely to keep the ball away from Drew Brees and keep moving the chains with their rushing attack in this one.
WHY THE SEAHAWKS COULD LOSE:
Sean Payton is a pretty smart guy. He’s going to see a defense that is down two of its top three cornerbacks and take advantage. Richard Sherman is an elite corner but the Saints like to spread the ball and there isn’t really a number one guy for him to shadow. Brees will continue to target whoever Sherman isn’t covering all day in this one. Payton will use three and four wide receiver sets constantly to test Seattle’s depth at corner.
Defensively the Saints have already amassed 37 sacks on the season. Although the Seahawks offensive line is getting healthy there are still a couple of suspect players in that unit. Rob Ryan will dial up some blitzes to see if he can make the render the Seahawks offense impotent as a result. It worked for the Rams. That being said, they were dealing with a line made entirely of backups and Russell Okung and company are far harder to get the better of.
PREDICTION:
I don’t see the Saints slowing down Lynch and Seattle’s running game. I do see the elements, the hostile environment and the strong Seahawks pass rush preventing Drew Brees from having his best game. SEAHAWKS 27 SAINTS 20
Zoneblitz’ Take: I was all over Seattle coming into the season. I love this team. It’s old school. Run the ball. Play action. Dominate on defense. I thought the Seahawks and San Francisco would be dueling not just for supremacy in the NFC West, but in the entire NFC. One part of that prediction has come true. Seattle has been just short of dominant from the start of the season.
The success of the Saints caught me off guard. Certainly with the return of Sean Payton I figured they would be better this year than they were in 2012. But I didn’t expect such a dramatic defensive turnaround and a 9-2 record.
This is a huge game. It should be one of the season’s best. Ashbourne and Stephens have summed up the main points well. While it’s rare that I would pick against Seattle at home, I think one factor in New Orleans’ favor Monday is motivation. Carolina is likely to beat Tampa on Sunday, which would mean the Saints have to beat Seattle to maintain their NFC South division lead. That’s not to say Seattle will be unmotivated, but they’ve got the division in hand.
Neither outcome would surprise me in this one, but based on the need to keep a game of separation with Carolina and the suspensions of two Seattle defensive backs, I’ll give Drew Brees and Co. an ever-so-slight edge. Call it 38-35 Saints in the upset.
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