ZB Game of the Week: Saints at Patriots

Coming off a lost season in which its defense was as bad as any in the history of the NFL, the New Orleans Saints have put 2012 behind them and exploded back into relevance this year. The offense looks as good as ever and the defense, under new coordinator Rob Ryan, is not just better, but dominant. The combination has led to a 5-0 start.

New Orleans faces probably its biggest test of the season so far this Sunday, however, when the team heads to Massachusetts to take on New England. The Patriots have not looked great at any point this season, but before faltering in the rain last week against Cincinnati, they had still run off four straight wins without a defeat.

Tom Brady gets a couple veteran weapons back this weekend in Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola and, after a month of real games, rookie skill players should be ready to contribute more as well. It’s still early, but this should be an exciting matchup of two teams likely headed toward the postseason. Bill Stephens, a writer with SaintsGab, and Rich Hill, managing editor of Pats Pulpit, have joined Zoneblitz to share their thoughts on the keys to the game.

Bill Stephens, SaintsGab (Twitter: @SaintsGab)

WHY THE SAINTS WILL WIN:

This should be a fantastic game, the Saints have been rolling and until last week with bad weather the Patriots have been finding different ways to pull out wins. The return of Rob Gronkowski should be an emotional lift to the Pats (especially Tom Brady) after the uncharacteristic performance they just had against the Bengals.

From the Saints perspective, however, if you do it once it might be luck, if you can repeat you are probably on to something. The Saints defense has turned in five very good performances this year and are a key reason the Saints are 5-0.

Sean Payton is a master at adapting in-game to what the defense is giving him. This week will be no exception, if the Pats concentrate on taking away Jimmy Graham, then it should open up the game for Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, Marques Colston, etc. in the passing game. With Vince Wilfork being out for the Patriots and not available to shut down the middle of the field, it will give the Saints running game on opportunity to get established. If the Saints still aren’t able to run, then Payton can always go back to the short controlled passing game. The final deciding factor is that the Saints are leading the league in time of possession, making it difficult for Brady to produce offense while he’s standing on the sidelines.

The Saints have been able to stop the run and put pressure on the opposing QB without blitzing. That said, they showed in the Chicago game that when they want to change up, they can blitz effectively. There probably isn’t another team in the league that has had their offense affected by injuries and free agent defections as much as the Patriots. Even with Gronkowski and Danny Amendola coming back, the offensive line has looked sluggish and has had trouble keeping the pressure off of Brady. The key for the Saints defense to perform well enough to win this week will be found in the trenches.

WHY THE PATRIOTS WILL WIN:

The keys for the Patriots to win this weekend are to produce turnovers and three-and-outs. Even though the Saints are portrayed as a passing offense, the secret to their success has been their ability to control the ball. If New England can keep the Saints offense off the field it will make for a long day for the WhoDat Nation.

On offense, Brady will have to be able to shake the rust off of injury returnees Gronkowski and Amendola quickly. He’ll also have to find a way to get the running game going and to make it effective in slowing down the pressure that he’ll see from the Saints. The other plus the Patriots have going for them has been the play of their special teams. Julian Edelman is as dangerous a punt returner as there is in the league and punter Ryan Allen has been deadly at pinning the opposition inside of their 10 let alone 20.

PREDICTION: Saints 24 Patriots 17

Rich Hill, Pats Pulpit (Twitter: @PatsPulpitSBN, @PP_Rich_Hill)

WHY THE PATRIOTS WILL WIN:

The Patriots and the Saints. Two of the most snake-bitten teams in the league as of late. Combined? 9-1. This is going to be a great game.

On offense, there’s no question that the Patriots have fallen flat. They’re coming off their worst week of the season and they’re going to be itching to put up some points. Thus far, New England’s been forced to play without their WR1 (Danny Amendola), TE1 (Rob Gronkowski), RB1 (Stevan Ridley) and RB2 (Shane Vereen) for large portions of this young season. As a result, rookie wide receivers Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson have stepped up and earned valuable starting experience. While neither player has stolen the spotlight, the inevitable return of Amendola and Gronkowski as targets one and two, as well as the influence of Julian Edelman, will help relegate the rookies to more depth roles, which will lead to better matchups and more profitable usage. Also, the return of Ridley will give the rushing game an underrated jump above the production of LeGarrette Blount. The Patriots offense is ready to get a jump start by the return of Ridley and Gronk, as well as a healthier Amendola. This offense is going to blow up.

WHY THE SAINTS WILL WIN:

Counterpoint? Drew Brees and Jimmy Graham. Who or what can stop them? The Patriots were forced to triple team Old Man Tony Gonzalez and Graham is, at this point, on a different planet. Safety Steve Gregory has played well, but he’s still been the weak-link and part-time liability in the secondary. Rookie Jamie Collins is the only linebacker who could possibly run with Graham. But a rookie and an average safety on Graham? Not a chance. Somehow the Patriots will have to scheme away Graham (Aqib Talib?) while still accounting for every other weapon on the field. No question, this is the best offense they’ll have faced this year.

Some reason for hope has been the play of the Patriots defense. Ranked second in the league for points against, this unit has seen solid production from every position. Rob Ninkovich and Chandler Jones are excellent bookends on the defensive line, while Brandon Spikes has reemerged at linebacker after having a quiet first quarter. The secondary has been phenomenal, with Talib being arguably the best cornerback in the NFL, Alfonzo Dennard playing the best CB2 the Patriots have had in a decade, and Devin McCourty is providing the safety support the secondary hasn’t had since Rodney Harrison. This defense is unquestionably elite and they’ll be able to keep the Patriots in the game until the offense scores some points.

PREDICTION:

Unfortunately for the Patriots, former defensive coordinator Rob Ryan now leads the Saints on D and his impact has been immediate. Ryan-led defenses have always flummoxed the Patriot offenses and I don’t expect this week to be any different. The offense might need a couple weeks to emerge, and this Saints defense isn’t the best place to start.

In the end? I don’t think the Patriots have enough fire power to match the Saints. Saints 24 Patriots 17.

Zoneblitz’ Take: It’s really hard to bet against a Bill Belichick-coached team at home the week after a tough loss when the team didn’t play very well. But this isn’t a normal next week. The Saints appear on a mission this season. They’re combining a new defensive system that fits well with the skills on the roster with wanting to show the world that they are not missing a beat even after BountyGate.

Both teams have tremendous skill players on offense, which should make this game exciting from start to finish. But I think the defenses are going to have a lot to say about the outcome. I think New Orleans will see this as a statement game and I think they’ll narrowly give the Pats their second loss in a row. Saints 27 Patriots 24.