ZB Game of the Week: Panthers at Saints

When the NFL releases its schedule sometime around NFL draft time, there are many games you can circle at that time and designate them as close to “must watch” television. Then there are games that develop as the season plays out, as teams you don’t suspect are ready to compete come out of the woodwork to challenge for playoff spots.

This week’s Game of the Week would be one of the latter. Nobody knew what to expect from New Orleans as they returned to full strength. Most probably thought they would be improved over a flawed 2012 version, but did anyone truly expect 9-3? Same with Carolina. Even a month into the season there were murmurs that Ron Rivera was close to losing his head coaching position.

Eight wins later, the Panthers are virtually assured of a spot in the playoffs. And now New Orleans and Carolina meet in the first of two match-ups that seem inevitably destined to crown the winner of the NFC South. This has quickly become one of the most compelling games on the calendar.

Brandon Becker, editor at Cat Crave, and Bill Stephens, a writer with SaintsGab return to share their thoughts on this week’s tilt in the Superdome.

Brandon Becker, Cat Crave (Twitter: @catcraveblog)

WHY THE PANTHERS WILL WIN:

The Panthers enter the Sunday showdown with the Saints riding a eight-game winning streak, a franchise quarterback who has figured out how to close games out, a formerly conservative coach who has adapted a new mantra when it comes to fourth down and one of the top two defenses in the NFL. The combination of the above has turned Carolina into a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Against the Saints, Carolina is going to need its front four to get to Drew Brees — much like Seattle did last Monday. The return of team sack leader Charles Johnson will be huge as the defense isn’t the same without him.

On offense the Panthers are going to need to continue doing what they’ve been doing; going on long, clock draining drives that result in touchdowns. In theory the Panthers match up well with the Saints on both sides of the ball outside of the secondary, but the pass rush will help mask that.

WHY THE PANTHERS COULD LOSE:

It’s hard to go into New Orleans and walk away with a victory. The Saints may be on a short week and may have had travel issues getting back home, but the home crowd and the magnitude of the game will more than make up for it. When Brees and company are at home they are comfortable. They are in their element and they are markedly better than when they are on the road.

To beat the Panthers the Saints are going to need to get a big performance from their offensive line. The Panthers can be beat deep but the question is whether or not Brees will have time in the pocket. New Orleans is the more experienced team and with the home crowd it’ll be hard for Carolina to come into town and walk away winners.

PREDICTION:

Last time the Panthers were the Game of the Week was against San Francisco. Everything in my head said to go with the logical choice and pick San Fran, but I went with my gut and picked the Panthers. The same thing can be said for this game. When I break it down it’s hard to see the Saints not winning at home, but I’m going to go with my gut again and ride the hot Panthers. The breaks have been falling Carolina’s way and this team has a physical edge to it that I’m not sure New Orleans has.

PANTHERS 24, SAINTS 17

Bill Stephens, SaintsGab (Twitter: @SaintsGab)

WHY THE SAINTS WILL WIN:

First and foremost, the thing to realize is that the team that showed up in Saints uniforms against the Seahawks last week is not the team that will show up in the Dome Sunday night. Nobody in New Orleans believes that and I don’t think the Panthers believe that either.

Both teams are at the top of the NFL in time of possession, the difference is that the Saints control the time of possession with their offense, while the Panthers success in time of possession is that their defense keeps opposing offenses off of the field, giving the ball back to their offense. Expect the Saints offense to come out with block, not a chip, on their shoulders and go right at the Panthers defense with a strong running game and their usual strong passing attack and build a lead that the Panthers are not able to overcome.

Another key factor that will result in a lot of surprised people is how well the Saints defense will play against Carolina’s primary strength, their running game. The run defense of the Saints has improved weekly, and it will be the case this week since it is Carolina’s primary weapon. The second key for the defense will be keeping Cam Newton in the pocket.

Last but not least is the home field advantage the Dome provides. There’s a reason the Saints are 6-0 at home this year, the advantage of playing in front of the WhoDats is well documented.

WHY THE SAINTS COULD LOSE:

The key for Carolina will be if the Saints defense learned anything at all about keeping a QB that can run the ball effectively in the pocket. Containment will be a word that will come up early and often during the game, if the Saints can’t contain Newton, then the Panthers offense has a reasonable chance of producing enough points to get a win.

The key for Carolina’s defense isn’t keeping the Saints offense from scoring but holding the Saints offense to as many three and outs as possible, if they can do that they can keep the ball in the hands of their offense and that’s the safest way to play the Saints.

PREDICTION:

As it is with most teams that are on a winning streak, the ball has bounced the Panthers way a lot this season. Nothing wrong with that, it’s just the mark of a team on a streak. I believe in this game however, the Saints will come out with an intensity and look to build a lead early. Carolina has had several come back wins during their eight game winning streak but I don’t believe they can come back against the Saints in the Dome. I’m going with the Saints in a NFC South Screamer 27 – 21

Zoneblitz’ Take: This one is a coin flip for me. The Saints are tough to beat at home. But the Panthers are on a helluva streak. Certainly Drew Brees and Company are going to put on a better show this week than they did in getting hammered by the Seahawks. At the same time, they are playing a team with a physical defense that seems to mirror the strategies used by Seattle in achieving success of late. Neither outcome would surprise me on Sunday, but I picked Carolina in our picks segment this week and I’ll stick with it. They’ll find a way to keep the Saints’ offense on the sideline and the score low: Panthers 20, Saints 17.