ZB Game of the Week: Dolphins at Saints

Heading into the season I would not have expected to be looking forward to this game as much as I am. The Saints were clearly going to be better than in 2012, but undefeated and dominant, particularly on defense, is unexpected. The Dolphins were also going to be better. But so far the fish have stuck right with New England for tops in the AFC East.

Monday Night Football does not get many of the prime games anymore, but they lucked in to a dual between two 3-0 teams this week. It should be a good one to watch. Brian Miller, editor of PhinPhanatic.com, and Bill Stephens, a writer for SaintsGab.com, have both shared some thoughts on how this game will play out.

Brian Miller, PhinPhanatic.com (Twitter: @Txmedic5, @PhinPhanatic)

WHY THE DOLPHINS WILL WIN:

The Miami Dolphins are a surprising 3-0 and a lot of that is directly due to the play of QB Ryan Tannehill. This week Tannehill will face a tough road test. Still they could win this game. For Miami the key to winning will be found on their offensive side of the ball. No one believes that Miami can win a shootout. They can’t. They simply are not built that way. They are however built for time management and this Monday night the clock will play a very important role in Miami’s success. Long, time-consuming drives will keep Drew Brees off the field.

The Dolphins cannot approach this game believing they can match New Orleans score for score. The Saints have a tremendous amount of offensive weapons but none bigger than their TE Jimmy Graham. The Dolphins defensively have struggled to keep TE’s in check and while they held Tony Gonzalez to 24 yards last week, they still gave up a Red-Zone TD to a rookie TE. Graham is the best pure pass catching TE in the league and it’s going to be a challenge for Miami’s defenders.

The key to stopping Graham is not to go hand-to-hand with him on the line of scrimmage but instead force him to break his route in the first three yards. A solid chuck off the line will throw off timing routes quick and allow safety coverage to pick the TE up. If the Dolphins can take Graham out of the game the pressure on Brees will be more impactful. The Saints lack a pure running game so sticking to the RB out of the back-field will be important as their backs catch many passes.

Miami will win this game if they keep Drew Brees and Jimmy Graham out of rhythm and can sustain long scoring drives.

WHY THE SAINTS WILL WIN:

The New Orleans Saints are not only loaded on talent offensively but new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan has the defense playing its best football in years. This game, however, will not come down to the defense, as Miami will find a way to score. It will come down to the connection of Drew Brees and Jimmy Graham. It’s as close to an unstoppable force as there is. The Dolphins simply don’t match-up well with TEs.

Of course those two can’t do it alone. With Marques Colston stretching the field on one side returning veteran Robert Meachem steps into a familiar offense after a failed stint in San Diego. Both players will play big roles in the Saints offense this Monday night. While the Dolphins have been solid against the pass they still give up quite a bit of yardage, especially early in the game before locking down in the second half. Miami can’t afford to give up yards to this offense.

The Dolphins are also reeling on the defensive line with NT Paul Soliai and Cameron Wake both likely to miss the game. This will allow the Saints to run the ball. Something they have struggled to consistently do. When they find success running it will open up the play action and when the Dolphins blitz, the Saints will turn to the screen. Brees is smart enough to change those plays at the line. On paper the Dolphins are not matched evenly.

PREDICTION: This is a game that is actually harder to call than on first glance. If the Dolphins can take time of the clock and score touchdowns then the Saints will be in for a long, unfamiliar style of game. Conversely the Saints will try and take the Dolphins out of their comfort zone and force them to pass. I suspect the Rob Ryan defense will show more blitz packages than at any time this year and I suspect that Ryan Tannehill’s sack total will rise considerably. Because of that, I have to give the nod to New Orleans 28-21.

 

Bill Stephens, SaintsGab (Twitter: @SaintsGab)

WHY THE SAINTS WILL WIN:

The Saints are off to a good start, in no small part to the defense that was deservedly maligned after the disaster that was 2012. This year they have done a complete turnaround. They’ve had three excellent games capped off with the total dominance of Arizona last week. In that game they surrendered an opening game 80 yard drive then held Arizona to consecutive punts and two interceptions for the rest of the game.

The Saints are currently ranked fourth in total defense and have been strong against the run and at putting pressure on QB with just the front line. Couple that with heady play in the defensive backfield and it’s pretty easy to see why the defense has produced big-time.

On Offense the Saints are ranked first after three weeks in time of possession. They’ve done it to this point using a short yardage passing game in the place of a running game. The coaching staff and Brees have been exceptional in making mid-game adjustments to the different defenses that the opposing teams have come up with.

Graham is having an eye catching season and that is saying quite a bit when you consider the results he’s produced in each of the two previous years. In Darren Sproles, the Saints have a legitimate all around threat that has to be watched whenever he is on the field and of course you have the exceptional group of receivers, led by Marques Colston, that just keeps coming up with big plays when needed

Everything considered, with the high level of play coming from both sides of the ball, it is no wonder the Saints are 3-0.

WHY THE DOLPHINS WILL WIN:

The Dolphins, particularly in the Atlanta game, are getting premium production when they run the ball. The Dolphins have two running backs that complement each other very well and give Miami the ability to run inside or outside depending on which one is in the game. Most notable is the production they are getting from those guys even though Miami is primarily a pass first offense.

With Ryan Tannehill the Dolphins have found the perfect fit to the west coast kind of offense they are running. As with a lot of players coming into their second year it looks like the game has slowed down for him and he has been a major factor in the Dolphins 3-0 start to their season.

When Miami was able to get Mike Wallace signed it gave them the one thing that they didn’t have last year on the offensive side of the ball, and that is a player who can be a game breaker at any moment.

PREDICTION:

The Saints will come out with the win, 27-17.

Zoneblitz’ Take: In our picks segment I took Miami. In our bets segment this week I took Miami on the moneyline at +230. I’m not sure the Dolphins win, but they are not getting enough respect.

The Saints are off to an incredible start. If they get up early there is little chance Miami comes back. But if the Dolphins can control the ball, get some first downs and prevent Drew Brees from getting in rhythm, they’ll definitely keep it close. At that point it’s a tossup. I’ve gone all in on Miami so far this week so I might as well stick with them. Dolphins 23-21.