ZB Game of the Week: Broncos at Colts

This is one of the games you circle on your calendar when the schedule comes out. Peyton Manning returns home to Indy to play against the guy who replaced him. It would have been an even better storyline if the Colts had handled the Chargers on Monday and gone into the contest just one game behind Denver for the conference lead. But nonetheless, this is game matches the AFC’s top team in Denver against one of its up-and-coming ones in Indianapolis.

So why blather on? Let’s get to this week’s guest contributors: Sayre Bedinger, a co-editor with Predominantly Orange, and Kyle Rodriguez, assistant editor with Colts Authority shared their thoughts on how their teams could get out of Sunday’s game with a win.

Sayre Bedinger, Predominantly Orange (Twitter: @SayreBedinger, @PredomOrange)

WHY THE BRONCOS WILL WIN:

The return of the defense. So much has been made of Peyton Manning this season, and rightfully so, but people forget that at full strength last season, the Broncos had a top 10 defense, and that was without Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie or Duke Ihenacho in the secondary. Of course, the Broncos had Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil all year, but they also didn’t have guys like Danny Trevathan developed yet, and Justin Bannan was still starting.

The Colts’ style offensively is pretty conservative. It’s no question the Colts were serious about going to a power running game, and I seriously doubt if that will work against Denver. The Broncos have one of the best run defenses in the NFL this season, and they are getting some serious reinforcements like Von Miller, Wesley Woodyard, Robert Ayers (latter two missed the JAX game). Not to mention, Champ Bailey had his warm-up game. I’m not going to say the Denver D will dominate Indy, but I think it’s going to be a big reason why they would win.

WHY THE COLTS WILL WIN:

Air it Out, Force Turnovers. If the Colts want to win, they need to let Andrew Luck sling the ball around, and they have to be able to protect him. Luck is one of the most poised young QBs I have ever seen in the pocket and under pressure, and he could be under a lot of it on Sunday. The Broncos are going to bring a lot of different looks Luck has not seen on film because this unit has not been together all season long.

The Dallas Cowboys set the blueprint for beating the Broncos, and it is scoring a LOT of points while also forcing a couple of timely turnovers. The Broncos’ kryptonite may just be fumbling the football, but Peyton Manning isn’t going to make a lot of bad throws out there. If the Colts can get pressure on Manning and force bad throws late in the game, they might be able to take this one.

PREDICTION: Broncos Win. I’m not into score predictions, because they only stand to make me look stupid. At least if the team I pick to win doesn’t win, then I don’t look so bad. All kidding aside, I think Denver wins this game. Getting Von Miller back is huge, much bigger than people are leading on. The story in this game is Luck vs. Manning, Manning returning to the house HE built there in Indianapolis. The story you’re not hearing about is how Denver is getting its defensive player of the year candidate back this week, and he’s bigger, faster, and stronger than he’s ever been (gained 15 lbs of muscle while suspended). In the end, I think the old man gets the better of young Luck in this game.

Kyle Rodriguez, Colts Authority (Twitter: @ColtsAuthority, @ColtsAuth_Kyle)

WHY THE COLTS WILL WIN

1. Andrew Luck is still Andrew Luck: The Colts lost a downright awful game to San Diego Monday night, and the offense was the main culprit, only scoring nine points on the day. But none of that was the fault of Andrew Luck, who once again played like one of the top AFC quarterbacks. Luck was, for the most part, accurate and dynamic, moving in the pocket and making accurate throws. Unfortunately, the rest of the offense did not play up to par. Whether it was drops, blown blocks or miscommunication, just about everything that could go wrong did for Indianapolis. Luck, however, has shown no signs of dropping off. If the Colts put the game in his hands, they’ll have a shot at any game.

2. The Denver defense is terrible: If there is one chink in the juggernaut’s armor, it’s the defense. Denver’s defense nearly allowed Dallas to upset the Broncos in Week 5, as Tony Romo and his receivers picked up over 500 yards on the way to 48 points. Denver’s passing defense is especially bad: According to Football Outsiders’ DVOA, the Broncos’ defense is 27th in the league in pass defense, but 8th in run defense. As much as the Colts want to be a power-running team, their strength is in Andrew Luck and their playmakers through the air. If they attack that Denver secondary, they’ll be able to score.

3. They’re the underdog: The Luck/Pagano era Colts have been as unpredictable as any team in the league, but one thing is certain: they love being the underdog. When the Colts are counted out, they rise to the occasion and play well. When they’re seen as the odds on favorites, they often struggle to focus. This season is a microcosm of that. They looked unprepared against Oakland and Miami in Weeks 1 and 2 as favorites, and then played as well as they possible could have against the favored 49ers and Seahawks. Then they went into San Diego and laid an egg. The Colts, more often than not, play to the level of their competition, and this week’s competition is playing at as high of a level as anybody.

WHY THE BRONCOS WILL WIN

1. Peyton F. Manning: What else can we say about Manning at this point in the season? He’s playing as well as any quarterback ever has in the history of the league. The Denver offense is blowing people out of the water in three quarters. The only game where they actually tried to score for the entire game? Week 5 in Dallas. They scored 51 points. The Colts have been efficient on offense this season, but they’ve never been anywhere near the explosiveness of Denver.

2. The Revenge Game: Not only is Manning already playing at a ridiculously high level, but this game comes with an added agenda. Despite the kind words, the tributes, etc., don’t think that Manning is going to have a soft spot in his heart once the game starts. Manning is a cold, calculating machine on the field, and he’s still miffed that the Colts would ever have let him get away (not to mention Irsay’s less-than-kind words this week). Manning loves Colts fans, he loves many of the Colts’ employees and he will be emotional during his tribute, but he also wants revenge. He wants to show Jim Irsay, in the stadium that he built, that he made a mistake. He wants to remind people that while Andrew Luck may be great, Manning is one of, if not THE best ever to play the game.

3. The Colts are stuck in the past, Denver is embracing the now: The Colts’ philosophy is to run the ball and stop the run. Denver’s is to pass the ball, and pass it some more. The Colts want to rely on their physical defense and overpowering running game. Denver wants to rely on their future Hall of Fame quarterback.

Denver has a modern, up-tempo offensive system that plays to the strengths of their personnel. The Colts are trying to force a 1960s-style offense onto a roster built to go three-wide. Andrew Luck was made to run up-tempo, vertical passing offenses. The Colts, more often than not, are asking him to be Trent Dilfer, when he’s more like the love child of Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers. Denver, on the other hand, knows what they have in Manning, and take advantage of that by drowning the opposing team in points before they can recover.

If the Colts don’t open up the offense and let Luck run wild on Sunday, Denver will win by double digits.

PREDICTION: The Colts might try to keep up with Manning, they might try and control the game on the ground. Either way, I can’t see the Colts’ defense being able to stall Manning long enough to get an autograph, much less keep them out of the end zone. Denver 41, Colts 28

Zoneblitz’ Take: I think Jim Irsay would have been better served not talking about how Peyton Manning ended up in Denver. It was going to be hard enough for Indy to win this game without giving Manning an additional reason to want this win.

On the other hand, the Colts are the best team the Broncos have played this season. And even with the loss to San Diego – which was gross – you can’t argue with a team that has beaten both Seattle and San Francisco. Denver wins. But this game will be closer than expected. Broncos 35 Colts 31.