I can’t remember the last time I’ve been this excited for football. It’s been at least since … last year.
There are a number of huge storylines out there as the season starts for real. Here are seven I’m watching.
- Just how good is Tom Brady? – Almost 90 percent of his completions in 2012 went to players who will not be active in week one. Zach Sudfeld and Kenbrell Thompkins are next in line. So is Danny Amendola. But Tom Brady is advancing in age. Can he still take a collection of relative newcomers to the Promised Land? Here’s guessing this team starts transitioning toward a more balanced attack, as Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen are among the best and most proven talents on offense.
- Can Palmer rejuvenate Fitzgerald? – Through the first six years of his career, Larry Fitzgerald was on pace to at least threaten some of Jerry Rice’s all-time receiving records. Then Kurt Warner retired and the Cardinals began employing guys like Max Hall, Ryan Lindley and John Skelton to throw the ball. Carson Palmer’s best football is behind him, but he still threw for 4,000 yards on a bad team with no receivers reaching more than 800 yards. Here’s guessing Palmer gets Fitz back toward around 90 catches and, probably more importantly, 10 touchdowns.
- Sophomore slumps? – Last year’s crop of rookie quarterbacks will surpass the 1983 group and go down as the best single crop of first-year signal callers ever. Can they keep it up in year two? Some are predicting a fall back toward the median for Russell Wilson. I disagree. I think he takes another step toward becoming one of the best. RGIII is coming off a knee injury. He’s probably the biggest question mark, but I was impressed with how well he threw as a pocket passer as well as on the run. I think he’ll be fine. Andrew Luck is a virtual lock to take another step forward. I also think Brandon Weeden is going to look better with more talent around him. Ryan Tannehill is the biggest question in my mind but I think he’ll be solid too. I think this group is the future of the league.
- Defending the read-option? – Quarterbacks like Griffin, Colin Kaepernick and Cam Newton show how dual-threat guys at the position can create havoc for the defense. The rules allow defenses to hit these guys even after they give up the ball if they’re on the run. That’s how Baltimore got to Kaepernick a bit during the Super Bowl. But it’s also still a numbers game. I don’t think you’ll see many 180-yard rushing games like Colin put up against the Pack in the Super Bowl, but unlike the so-called Wildcat offense, I think the read-option will continue to be more trend than fad.
- Payton’s potential influence – The Saints are back to full strength after a year of dealing with the ramifications of Bounty-gate. That means Drew Brees has his guy back. My guess is that it helps the Saints’ offense look better than it did at times in 2012. Though still potent, there were times when it just didn’t look the same as it had in recent years. Still, I’m not sure it helps in the standings. This defense was historically terrible in 2012 and it’s missing guys like Will Smith and offseason acquisition Victor Butler. This team will not meet expectations in 2013.
- Chip Kelly’s transition – Fantasy football is not football, but it can lend some insights. Who are three of the more polarizing players on draft boards this year? Mike Vick, LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson. Why? Because who knows if the Chip Kelly offense can be adapted to the NFL game. This high-tempo scheme will be a fascinating to watch. I don’t think the Eagles win a lot in 2013. The Jeremy Maclin injury and Riley Cooper controversy combine with a talent shortage to make a complete turnaround too much to expect. But if this offense translates, they should be entertaining – and on the way.
- Coaches from Canada? – It’s been awhile since the NFL imported a head coach from Canada. If Marc Trestman has anything approaching the same success Bud Grant and Marv Levy did, Chicago fans will probably be happy for the next decade. He brings a complex offensive attack to the league. Jermon Bushrod is a bit overrated as a left tackle, but he’s still an upgrade over what this team has sported in the past. If the line can keep Jay Cutler upright, expect him to have a really solid season tossing the rock.
- Quarterback messes abound – Parity? Parity my backside. The 2013 season features a handful of excellent teams and a handful of dregs, the latter being teams that are struggling at the quarterback position. The Raiders are the latest team to decide Matt Flynn is not the future. Terrelle Pryor isn’t likely to be the guy long-term either. Blaine Gabbert remains questionable in Jacksonville. Mark Sanchez/Geno Smith/Greg McElroy/Fireman Ed all could take their turn calling plays for the Jets and it won’t be enough to save Rex Ryan’s job. Christian Ponder is being carried by Adrian Peterson right now. These are just a few of the teams that don’t have the answer at the most important position in professional sports.
And these are just some of the questions I’ll be paying attention to heading into 2013. The answers start coming today. Have fun folks. It’s football season.
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