NFL Best Bets: Week Nine – 2012

by Tony & Andy | Nov 1, 2012 | 2012 season, NFL Gambling

I went to Las Vegas last weekend armed with the confidence of having gone 3-1 in my best bets in week seven. I then proceeded to get hammered, both at the blackjack tables and in the sports book, where I won a small bet on Notre Dame at +400 on the moneyline, but lost three others.

I also had another rough week against the spread on this site, going 1-3 (though I did hit my upset pick) and dropping to 11-21 overall. Tony has not been a ton better. He’s 13-19 for the season, having gone 2-2 last week.

We’d probably both be well into our second or third set of broken legs had we placed any real money on these bets. But since it’s all pretend and nobody should really be taking us seriously by this point, (gambling is bad …  but so much fun!!!) we’ll do it again.

Here goes:

Andy

Atlanta (-4) vs Dallas – The Cowboys, to me, are just a mediocre team. They’ve got wins against Carolina, Tampa Bay and division rival New York. They’ve got losses against Chicago, Baltimore, surprising Seattle and those same Giants. So they mostly beat bad teams and an occasional division opponent and they mostly lose to good ones. The Falcons won’t put up the same offense they have all season. Dallas remains good against the pass. They’ve lost against the spread in both of their last home games, but those were 10 and seven point spreads. This one is just four. Five of their seven wins have been by more than that and this one will not be an exception.

Arizona at Green Bay: Under 43.5 – Cardinals games have gone under the number seven out of eight times this season, including four times in a row. The defense isn’t going to stop Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay, but it’ll slow them down some. It’s succeeded in holding New England to 18 and Philadelphia to six in contests against teams that theoretically had good offenses. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have scored 36 points in the last four games. This is a recipe for another under.

Philadelphia at New Orleans: Over 52 – Up until last week, New Orleans had not scored fewer than 24 points all season. The defense has not given up less than 24 either. Philadelphia is fighting for its season, while Andy Reid and Michael Vick are, respectively, coaching and playing for their futures as well. I’m not sure if the Eagles are good enough to beat New Orleans on the road, but I do expect them to improve on their season high of 24 points. This should be a plenty high scoring game.

Upset of the week: Tampa Bay (+105) at Oakland – I saw the Bucs firsthand last week and they looked impressive in a win against Minnesota. They’ve had 10 days off so I don’t expect the long trip across the country to be all that troublesome. They’re still not strong against the pass, but they’re effectively stopping the run. And the offense is coming together nicely around Doug Martin and Josh Freeman. Oakland is coming off a two game winning streak, but beating Jacksonville and Kansas City this year isn’t really all that impressive. I think the Bucs are headed in the right direction and they get to .500 with a win here.

Tony

Houston (-10) vs Buffalo – I am shocked that this is only 10 points. Houston has a dynamic offense and a stout defense, even without Mario Williams. Buffalo…does not, even with Mario Williams. Enough said.

Indianapolis (+1.5) vs Miami – Indy is playing well, and playing at home. The Dolphins have played better than expected, but there is a chance that Ryan Tannehill won’t play on Sunday, with knee and thigh injuries. Matt Moore is a decent backup, but realistically if Tannehill sits, the Colts can focus even more attention on Reggie Bush, and even if Tannehill plays, I think the Colts can win this one outright.

Carolina at Washington: Over 46.5 – In the showdown between Cam Newton and RG3, the hot rookie QB from last year that has struggled as a sophomore vs. the current rookie that is “tearing up” the league (I’m not sold), I think they can each put up 23 points easily. Then again, I’m notorious for missing these, so feel free to take the under. I won’t be offended.

Upset of the Week: Philadelphia (+155) at New Orleans – There is serious talk of benching Michael Vick, and if he struggles against the Saints, I would be shocked if it doesn’t happen, even in game. For some reason, I don’t see it happening. I see Vick rebounding (for this week) to hold the job, and tantalize the Eagles just enough to hang on to the job for another week or two, before finally bombing for the season and costing Andy Reid his job.

To see our picks for the week, click here.