NFL Best Bets: 2011 season, week 15

by Tony & Andy | Dec 13, 2011 | 2011 season, NFL Gambling

Our straight-up picks might be running fairly neck and neck for the 2011 season, but I’m starting to pull away from Tony when it comes to our best bets against the spread. I hit three of four, including my Giants over Cowboys upset, running my five-week total to 15-5 and my full-season mark to 28-27-1.

Tony had been on a pretty good run, but he slipped to 1-3 last week, dropping to 26-30 for the season.

Here’s some more food for thought and (non-guaranteed) cash for your pocket, err, reading material for when you’re boss is away from the office.

Andy

Dallas (-6) at Tampa Bay – The Buccaneers aren’t the most disappointing team in the NFL this season, and they have lost seven consecutive games, a stretch during which the team’s closest loss is by six points. Dallas has lost two in a row. But they are not playing that badly, having won four in a row before the last second defeats. As long as this game does not come down to a last-second field goal the Cowboys should win this comfortably, even without DeMarco Murray running the ball.

New England (-6.5) at Denver – Tim Tebow is the buzzword of the season so far, but in reality the Broncos’ six-game win streak has been powered by a defense that has improved dramatically from the beginning of the season. But they’ve also benefitted from playing a schedule that has included Kansas City, Minnesota, Chicago minus Jay Cutler and Matt Forte, and San Diego and New York when the Chargers and the Jets were slumping. The Patriots also are amidst a five-game win streak, during which they have scored 37, 34, 38, 31 and 34 points. Denver, on the other hand, has scored 18, 10, 17, 17, 16 and 13 in six of the eight games Tebow has started. If Tebow can pull this one out I’ll consider starting to maybe become a believer. Until then I’m betting on Belichick and Brady. (Incidentally, as a bonus bet, I’d go over 46, as well. I expect the Patriots to win comfortably, but Denver will score some points on New England’s shaky defense.)

New Orleans (-7) at Minnesota – Eight of the Vikings’ 11 losses have been by seven or fewer points, so it’s not like the team has quit fighting. But the team’s defensive backs are terrible and the team has given up 165 points – or 33 a game – over the last five, even making Tebow look like an All-Pro. Drew Brees is still better than the Broncos’ signal-caller and, though his road stats aren’t as gaudy as his home ones, he’ll feel at home playing against Minnesota. The Saints are fighting for a bye and they’ll get one step closer this week in a comfortable win at the Metrodome.

Upset of the week:

Seattle (+4.5, +180) at Chicago – Chicago under Caleb Hanie’s direction has lost three in a row, scoring 33 points in three games and appearing to get progressively worse each week. Seattle has been surprisingly strong, improving to 6-7 with two strong 30-plus point performances the last two weeks during a season in which I expected they’d be sucking for Andrew Luck. The Seahawks aren’t as good on the road as they are at home, but it was clear during the last two games that they are playing with confidence and physicality. I wouldn’t expect them to hit 30 again – in fact I’d take the under in this game pretty confidently – but if they can get into the low 20s that should be enough to beat the toothless Bears.

Tony

Minnesota (+7) vs New Orleans – If I were a betting man, I would guess Andy will take the Saints and give the points (obviously we write these independent of one another). But the Vikings have lost 8 games by 7 points or fewer (granted, several of those were lost leads), and the Saints play significantly poorer on the road that at home. I do not think the Vikings will win, but I think they can keep it within seven.

Seattle (+4) at Chicago – The Bears have lost Jay Cutler and Matt Forte, and last week managed to Tebow themselves out of a win thanks to Marion Barber. The Seahawks have been playing surprisingly well for a team led by Tarvaris Jackson, thanks primarily to Marshawn Lynch.  I would consider taking them as my upset of the week, in fact, because I do expect them to win outright–but in keeping with my recent trend of picking bigger games, I’ve got a special upset for this week.

Cleveland at Arizona: Over 37.5 – Finally getting back to my theory: “If there is no way it can happen, bet for it to happen.”

Upset of the Week:
Indianapolis (+6.5, +245) vs Tennessee – Call it a hunch, but I don’t think the Colts go 0-16. They’ve got a chance to beat the Titans, especially with questions at quarterback for the Titans.