Early thoughts on fantasy sleepers and reaches

by Anthony Maggio | Jul 25, 2013 | Fantasy Football

“Sleeper” is arguably the most overused of the many fantasy buzzwords out there. Everyone who plays fantasy football has the guys pegged they think will far outperform their draft position and will be absolutely giddy when they land the player—sometimes regardless of cost. But with scores of fantasy football writers out there firing their sleepers throughout the internet, and the masses gobbling them up and claiming said sleepers as their own, often-times the shine has worn off of sleepers by the time draft day rolls around. After all, if everyone thinks a guy is a sleeper, he’s no longer a sleeper.

Thus, I bring you the value/reach segment I hope to supply a handful of times during fantasy draft season, where I use the ADP data from www.mockdraftcentral.com to enlighten you on who is going for value, and who’s sleeper status has been jeopardized. For starters, let’s stick with the top 100. I’ll venture into the deeper territory in later iterations of this article. (more…)

ZoneBlitz Fantasy Football Kicker Ratings

by Anthony Maggio | Jun 26, 2013 | Fantasy Football

In the coming weeks, ZoneBlitz will feature rankings for each fantasy position in five scoring formats. The rankings will be accompanied by a brief article highlighting some of the big names, surprises and sleepers. Combined cheat sheets for each format will be available August 1 and constantly updated based on the latest news to keep you prepared for your drafts.

Editor’s Note: Kicker rankings are the fifth of six rankings to be posted to ZoneBlitz.com. Quarterback rankings can be found here, running back rankings can be found here, wide receiver rankings can be found here, and tight end rankings can be found here.

I’m not going to go into a ton of details about kickers because there isn’t a ton to say. Generally speaking, the kickers on teams with better offenses are the best to own, though you don’t want TOO good of an offense. Guys like Garrett Hartley and Mason Crosby have struggled in the past not only by their own inaccuracies, but also by their offense reaching paydirt rather than settling for chippies most of the time.

You’ll notice Crosby way down at No. 29 on this list, and that’s not due to my anti-Green Bay bias—which I rarely if ever let cloud my fantasy judgment. His offense has little trouble reaching the end zone so he’s kicking for one point instead of three more often than not, he’s failed to kick with even 80% accuracy in two of his last three seasons, and he’s among three kickers with a reasonable chance at losing his job during training camp. Rian Lindell and Dan Carpenter are the others, but since both are on mediocre offenses at best to begin with, their rankings won’t rise much even if given the job outright at a later date. So if you see Giorgio Tavecchio (GB), Dustin Hopkins (BUF) or Caleb Sturgis (MIA) on cheat sheets in the coming weeks, don’t be surprised.

Sure, there are other potential competitions, particularly if injury situations with David Akers and Randy Bullock take a turn for the worse (the former being more likely than the latter), but otherwise things are pretty much set in the kicker universe.

One final point I’d like to make is as to why I didn’t include dynasty rankings with kickers. Yes, had I done kicker dynasty rankings, they would’ve been different from the rankings you see listed here. However, the kicker position is a volatile one in that any given year the total points scored can change drastically based on schedule (weather), accuracy, injury or an assortment of other factors. So unless you’re in a league with obscene roster sizes, you should be using your kicker position for roster flexibility during the season and revisiting your kicker on an annual basis. Every fantasy season finds another waiver wire gem. Last year it was Blair Walsh. In 2011 it was John Kasay. In 2010 it was Nick Folk.

Even in redraft leagues you can take the “don’t worry about it” approach to fantasy kickers. So don’t waste time worrying about them in dynasty leagues. Live in the now!

Have a question? Take umbrage with any of my rankings? Want to discuss the topic further? Post in the comments section and let’s chat! And if enough questions trickle in through the course of the offseason and training camp, I’ll post a few mailbag stories. Thanks for reading. Now comment away!

(more…)

ZoneBlitz Fantasy Football Tight End Ratings

by Anthony Maggio | Jun 24, 2013 | Fantasy Football

In the coming weeks, ZoneBlitz will feature rankings for each fantasy position in five scoring formats. The rankings will be accompanied by a brief article highlighting some of the big names, surprises and sleepers. Combined cheat sheets for each format will be available August 1 and constantly updated based on the latest news to keep you prepared for your drafts.

Editor’s Note: Tight end rankings are the fourth of six rankings to be posted to ZoneBlitz.com. Quarterback rankings can be found here, running back rankings can be found here and wide receivers can be found here.

OK, so things are obviously a bit in flux at the moment thanks to Aaron Hernandez and his current trouble with the 5-0. So let’s start in New England with a couple of assumptions when it comes to these rankings. Assumption No. 1: Hernandez’s legal situation will have no impact on his availability to the Patriots. Assumption No. 2: Rob Gronkowski will miss at least two games as he recovers from yet another surgery—this one on his back.

Should things go south for both of those guys, then changes happen elsewhere in terms of wide receiver rankings, running back rankings, and so on. Heck, Tim Tebow could very well find himself on the tight end rankings by the time we release cheat sheets. So stay tuned.

Photo credit: Jeffrey Beall via Wikipedia

As for the rest of tight end lot, there was a time in fantasyland that if you didn’t nab Antonio Gates or Tony Gonzalez at the position, you might as well forget it. The big, burly blocker types dominated the position landscape, and the few with athletic builds a la Kellen Davis also came with hands a la Kellen Davis. These days, not so much.
Check out the top 10 across all formats. If you’re in a 10-team league, you have nothing to worry about. Sure, you’re feeling good if you nab Jimmy Graham, but are you really going to be upset if you trot Owen Daniels or Kyle Rudolph out there on a weekly basis? The answer should be no, assuming you strengthened your roster in other areas while waiting to fill your tight end position.

Photo credit: John Martinez Pavliga via Wikipedia

Those in larger leagues have a little more volatility to worry about, but still, Jermichael Finley, Brandon Pettigrew, Fred Davis and Dustin Keller, for all their questions, are more than capable of putting up starter-worthy fantasy digits on a weekly basis. And there are always sleepers, like Martellus Bennett, Jordan Cameron, and maybe even Rob Housler.

In my other positional write-ups I haven’t done much draft strategy discussion, but in the case of tight ends this year I think it’s worth it. I’m not overpaying for a top five tight end this season, because by the time my draft is over, if I’ve landed two of my top 18 in any scoring system—even numbers 17 and 18—I’ve cast myself a reasonable net for success. Sure, the upside of a top five tight end may not be there, but I can make a reasonable argument for as many as 20 tight ends winding up in the top 10 in positional scoring, and if you’ve appropriately built your roster elsewhere, all you need is a top 10 tight end to be successful.

I’d also anticipate at least two waiver wire types winding up vying for top 10 or 12 fantasy tight end status by the end of the year, so if you go the risky route in your draft, be ready to act on early-season success elsewhere—think Heath Miller from last year. Heck, Heath Miller could be this year’s version of Heath Miller considering he’s coming back from injury and not likely to be drafted, but could still help your squad the final 10 weeks of the fantasy season.

Regardless, I think I’ve made my point. Talented tight ends are plentiful.

Have a question? Take umbrage with any of my rankings? Want to discuss the topic further? Post in the comments section and let’s chat! And if enough questions trickle in through the course of the offseason and training camp, I’ll post a few mailbag stories. Thanks for reading. Now comment away!
(more…)