There has been a lot of steam around Matt Forte this offseason, both in real life and in fantasy football circles, where team owners have endlessly debated what the Bears running back would look like under Mike Martz’ system.

While I expect that he will be better than he was in 2009, savvy owners have already begun selling high after his Player of the Week performance against Detroit on Sunday. If you haven’t you should follow.

Through his first two seasons, Forte has five 100 yard rushing games. Three of those came in his rookie season of 2008 when everyone thought he was an emerging star. Those games came against Detroit, St. Louis and Indianapolis or, in order, the 32nd, 29th and 24th best run defenses in the league.

Still, his 1238 yards and 12 touchdowns (eight rushing, four receiving) had owners salivating heading into 2009. Those who got their hands on him were let down dramatically. Fighting through injuries, he mustered just 929 yards rushing and four touchdowns, all on the ground.

His stock fell dramatically heading into this season as the Bears added Chester Taylor. But he’s on fire right now. In one of my leagues an owner already got Reggie Wayne for the Bears back off his Sunday performance.

I wouldn’t touch him with a 10 foot pole. Let’s dig a little deeper into the numbers to see why:

Even in his 1,238 yard rookie season, if you take out the three 100 yard games he had 937 yards on 258 carries, which amounts to 3.6 yards per carry and 72 yards per game. In 2009, he had two 100 yard rushing games – both against Detroit. So subtract those games and you’re left with 707 yards on 230 carries, or 3.1 yards per rush.

His five 100 yard games all time come against some of the worst run defenses of the last decade. His offensive line is terrible. And while I expect he will be more valuable this year, I hardly expect him to put up 151 yards receiving every week. Detroit is better than they have been but most definitely not yet a good defense by any stretch of the imagination.

Heading into the season, he had 384 yards in four games against the Lions, or 96 yards per game. In 28 games against other teams he has 1783 yards, or 64 per game. That’s pretty mediocre for a guy who has been pretty much unquestioned as the starter since his first game in the NFL.

And lost in his performance Sunday, Forte rushed for just 50 yards on 17 carries, less than three yards per carry.

Again, I do think Forte is better than his 2009 indicates. He is a good receiver, having put up 63 catches in 2008 and 57 in 2009, so he’s valuable in point per reception leagues and he might push 100 catches in Martz’ offense.

But he doesn’t get to play his entire career against Detroit. If he did, he would probably already be spending his off days posing for the bust he would eventually have at the Hall of Fame in Canton.

You can’t count on him breaking 80 yard touchdown receptions every week and, while he’ll catch a lot of balls, you can’t count on him to house two touchdowns every week.

Until he starts putting those numbers up against teams other than St. Louis and Detroit, I’d hang onto Reggie Waynes and Andre Johnsons and let some other sucker give away his elite players for this historically mediocre back.