The Seattle Seahawks and particularly the San Francisco 49ers have proven to be more competitive than I expected they would, already virtually eliminating themselves from competing for the number one pick in the April 2012 NFL Draft, from which Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck is the biggest prize and by a wide margin.

Kansas City is bad enough to warrant earning the Luck pick but they’ve foolishly gone and found balance on offense the last two weeks, which has allowed them to at least temporarily remove themselves from the discussions.

But several teams are starting to separate from the pack, some sucking well worse than expected. Here are my latest thoughts on who the top contenders are for the Luck pick:

3. Jacksonville Jaguars: This is one of the league’s bad-and-mostly-boring teams. The Jaguars made clear this was not going to be a competitive season when they jettisoned David Garrard as the season was getting underway. They pretended for a couple weeks that Luke McCown would be the answer before going with rookie Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert has shown some promise in his three starts, but this team still isn’t going to do much starting guys like Mike Thomas and Jason Hill at wide receiver. There is nothing wrong with those plain Jane guys but neither screams number one wideout. The current makeup of the roster makes me wonder if they would use the top pick on Luck or if they would ransom it to another team willing to unload three or four top picks. But despite a solid running game, the Jags certainly have the lack of talent necessary to be a true contender for this pick.

2. Indianapolis Colts: Peyton Manning has put himself into MVP discussions while not even setting foot on a field so far this season as his once-proud organization struggles to remain competitive. They’re 0-5 and the season has been a disaster. But what is keeping them from the top spot is the fight this team has put up in back-to-back-to-back defeats to Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh and Kansas City. This team has the lack of talent necessary to earn the top pick in the draft, but my guess is with two games left against Jacksonville and Cincinnati and Carolina also on the docket, the Colts will find a way to endanger their draft position by winning a couple games.

1. Miami Dolphins: I didn’t expect the Dolphins to contend for a playoff spot in 2011, but I didn’t expect them to be as bad as they are, either. But I was wrong. Even with a slightly-improved version of Chad Henne tossing the pig, the Dolphins have been bad and also boring. A friend from Florida tells me he’s hoping the team gives up all illusions of trying to win and goes for the draft pick. It’s hard to blame him. This has been a hopeless outfit thus far.

Honorable mention: There are some really, really bad teams in the NFL this season.

Kansas City: Despite a couple wins I still think this team is really, really bad.

St. Louis: Disappointing so far, but not going to put them that high unless they continue losing into the season’s second half, when the schedule eases up.

Minnesota: Donovan McNabb has been terrible. A win over Arizona isn’t going to change that.

Arizona: Despite the trade for Kevin Kolb, this team has been exposed. They lost to the Vikings. Enough said.

Denver: I remain skeptical that Tim Tebow is the answer but I do think he could give the Broncos and their fan base an emotional life in the short-term that would allow the team to win just enough to stay out of the running for the Luck pick.