I’m back, baby!!!

Okay, that’d be a stupid thing to think when it comes to gambling. And it probably does nothing more than tempt fate. But I did hit three of four Best Bets during week 10, just a week after flubbing all four of my picks.

Game by game, the Giants hung on to beat the Eagles straight up. The Vikings held on to beat Green Bay by a point but the Packers covered the spread. And Baltimore slobberknocked Houston, so not only did I hit my first three picks but they were all underdogs – a valuable thing when betting for real in Vegas.

I did stumble on picking the over in the San Diego v Kansas City tilt. But my 3-1 mark for the week brings me to 5-6 for the three weeks I’ve been doing these picks – not bad … if you take out the 0-4 second week. Uggh.

So, anyway, here we go with Best Bets Version 3:

1. New Orleans at Kansas City: Over 49.5
This is a high number, but Kansas City’s offense has come around a bit in recent weeks under the guidance of Tyler Thigpen. They’ve scored 19, 27 and 24 in the last three weeks and they get Larry Johnson, fresh from a four-game layoff for spitting drinks at women, back to lead the run game. And the Saints defense has disappointed this season, so figure the Chiefs to get into the 20s. Then, even with last week’s ugly loss to Atlanta, New Orleans has scored 20, 37, 35, 27, 31 and 32 in six of the last seven games. Plus, the Chiefs have six sacks this season – yes, six sacks. So assuming the 0.67 sacks they should get this week against Drew Brees doesn’t send the MVP candidate to the sideline, he should have plenty of time to pass. If he does, he will carve up the Chiefs secondary. The Chiefs have given up more rushing touchdowns than receiving ones (14 to 11) so expect whoever runs the ball for New Orleans to score this week too – but the Saints thrive through the air and whoever owns Brees, Marques Colston and most other Saints receivers this week should do well.

2. Tennessee (-3) at Jacksonville
Tennessee is still undefeated and Jacksonville, save for a dominating performance last week against winless Detroit, has looked as though they were ready to tank the season for about a month. Expect the Titans Mash-and-Dash attack of Lendale White and Chris Johnson to continue working their magic after a one-week drought against Chicago. The Titans will comfortably eclipse the three-point spread in this one.

3. Oakland at Miami: Under 38.5
This one might be a bit of a stretch but I think this week’s spreads are pretty spot on (using the Vegas.com Caesars-Hilton line again). Oakland hasn’t scored a touchdown in nine quarters and Miami’s defense has been solid. But four of the Dolphins’ five wins so far have come by 2, 9, 9, and 7 points. I expect the Dolphins to win and probably add a second double-digit victory to their resume. But it’ll be something along the lines of 17-6 or 21-9 in a low-scoring slug-fest.