It’s a good week for Brett Favre. The former Packers QB will get his number retired in Green Bay Thanksgiving
Courtesy of the Pro Football Hall of Fame
night. Today he was named one of 25 modern-era semifinalists who remain in contention for induction into the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s 2016 class.
Favre, Steelers and Jets guard Alan Faneca and multi-team WR Terrell Owens are the three first-time eligible candidates to be named semifinalists. Jacksonville tackle Tony Boselli and the late Sam Mills, a linebacker for Carolina and New Orleans, also are semifinalists for the first time.
There are 15 offensive players, six defensive players and a special teams star among the 25 semifinalists. The remaining three are coaches.
The 15 finalists will be named in January. Voters will then meet during Super Bowl weekend and cull the list to 10 and then five. Those final five will need 80 percent yes votes to earn enshrinement. Two senior committee members – Dick Stanfel and Ken Stabler – already have been announced, as has one contributor, Edward DeBartolo Jr. Those three advance directly to the final vote, where they also will need 80 percent of the vote to be enshrined.
The finalists are:
K – Morten Andersen
S – Steve Atwater
T – Tony Boselli
WR – Isaac Bruce
Coach – Don Coryell
RB – Roger Craig
RB – Terrell Davis
Coach – Tony Dungy
G – Alan Faneca
QB – Brett Favre
LB/DE – Kevin Greene
WR – Marvin Harrison
WR – Torry Holt
T – Joe Jacoby
RB – Edgerrin James
Coach – Jimmy Johnson
T – Mike Kenn
CB – Ty Law
S – John Lynch
C – Kevin Mawae
LB – Karl Mecklenburg
LB – Sam Mills
WR – Terrell Owens
T – Orlando Pace
QB – Kurt Warner
We made predictions several months ago on who we think will be enshrined that you can read here.
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Disappointed to see Darren Woodson left off the list after making it last year. He’s more deserving of Canton than many of those guys.
Agreed that Darren Woodson deserves to be enshrined. Fortunately, he has a lot of eligibility time left, good until 2029, as he will likely take a while to get in.
For me, the two biggest surprises were Boselli and Mills, though I think both are deserving.
13 of the finalists seem pretty easy to predict: Favre, Warner, Pace, Faneca, Andersen, Lynch, Owens, Davis, Johnson, Coryell, Harrison. Dungy, and Greene. The last two could be anyone.
Four of these players are having their eligibility run out soon, Jacoby and Craig (2018) and Mecklenburg and Kenn (2019). It’s possible two of these folks may sneak in as finalists. And if they have any chance of election as regular candidates, they need to make the jump very soon.
As we all know it’s a numbers game. Zach Thomas is another that is deserving. Who thinks a coach will get enshrined this year? I am thinking 1 will.
Looks my prediction was correct for 22 out of 25, missed on Boselli, Kenn and Mills (I had R Harrison, C Matthews, and D Woodson). Kenn as biggest surprise to me, and looks like until HOF deals with safeties Atwater and Lynch may be a few more years until D Woodson makes the semifinalists..
finalists prediction (announced in mid January):
Morton Anderson
Don Coryell
Terrell Davis
Tony Dungy
Alan Faneca
Brett Favre
Kevin Greene
Marvin Harrison
Jimmy Johnson
Ty Law
John Lynch
Kevin Mawaee
Terrell Owens
Orlando Pace
Kurt Warner
What is happening to Zach Thomas right now is a bit more than a numbers game. The voters for this year did have him as semifinalist due to the voters having Linebackers that have been eligible for 10 years in the Hall of Fame in Sam Mills, Kevin Greene, and Karl Mecklenburg.
I think Zach Thomas has a better chance next year for making the Semifinals if Kevin Greene is inducted.
Yeah, voters don’t like having a “watered down” group so to say. I do believe Kevin Greene is inline to be inducted this time around. So, that should free up a spot. Next year LaDainian Tomlinson seems to be the only first ballot lock; Jason Taylor has a shot but given the recent trend with players under 190 sacks, I don’t see him getting in first time around. Reggie White and Bruce Smith are the 2 that made it in first ballot but both have the most sacks and 2nd most ever. Also we will be starting a new backlog class of WRs with Hines Ward being eligible. And also Brian Dawkins will be eligible then too. So, another added to the backlog of Safeties. Zach should sneak in sometime within next 2-3 years and eventually inducted. I don’t want him to wait for Senior Nominee. Look at Jerry Kramer and Johnny Robinson, among others.
The treatment of Zach Thomas is very odd. He is a completely different player than Kevin Greene and therefore should not be directly compared to him. However, even if you did so, Zack Thomas would seem to be a much better candidate for the HOF: Greene’s 5 pro bowls /2 all pros /95 career AR (over 15 seasons) is significantly less Zack Thomas’s totals (7/5/118 (over 13 seasons)). Moreover, during his career, Zach Thomas was consistently considered an indispensable player on his team, while Kevin Greene routinely changed teams for whatever reason.
That said, Thomas’s real competition should be Sam Mills and Karl Mecklenburg, who both were 3-4 inside linebackers, and Thomas again has a significantly better profile than either player: Mills (5/1/101) and Mecklenburg (6/3/92). Before I go on, I should note that Mills and Mecklenburg were two of my favorite non-redskins growing up. Having said that, I acknowledge that both are border line HOF candidates. Thomas, however, is a player for which I never had a particular affinity but is an obvious HOFer.
My hypothesis is that Zack Thomas is remembered by the voters as slightly overrated (something I agree with). During his playing days, he was regularly compared to the greatest of the great middle linebackers (guys like Butkus, Singletary, Lambert) — obvious first ballot guys. He was never that good. However, that does not mean that he was not a HOFer. In fact, Pro Football Reference’s “Similar Players” for Zack Thomas is virtually a role call of HOF LBs, including Urlacker (likely HOFer), Singletary, Lambert, Ham, Buoniconti, Derrick Thomas, and Rickey Jackson. Conversely, Sam Mills is always remembered for being underrated (something I also agree with) because of his size and USFL roots. Mecklenburg, on the other hand, was just an incredible fun player to watch with his long arms and energizer bunny motor.
Like I said previously, I assume Thomas will be like Lee Roy Selmon and Rickey Jackson. Someone the voters skip ahead of others once they get in the room.
Brian Dawkins is going to be a great case study next year. For me the best safety ever is Ed Reed. If you need convinced, just listen to Bill Belichick talk about him. Polamalo is in the class right behind with guys like Ken Houston and Ronnie Lott. Therefore, while Brian Dawkins is not Reed and Polamalo, he was significantly better than John Lynch and Steve Atwater. Just as the voters are in the midst of inducting the golden generation of left tackles (Pace, Ogden, Roaf, Jones), they should start the golden generation of safeties with Dawkins and continuing with Reed and Polamalo (and someday Chancellor and Earl Thomas).
As an aside, it is too bad that Bob Sanders couldn’t stay healthy and Sean Taylor was murdered. They both could have stood beside Reed, Polamalo, and Dawkins.
Sean Taylor was just coming to form too :( That was a very sad moment in NFL history. And yeah, Bob Sanders was a very solid Safety as well, when healthy. Injuries ruin careers. He is kind of like Derrick Rose before Derrick Rose.
Dawkins is very interesting case. I am very tempted to say a better Leroy Butler although Brian played free safety and Leroy played Strong Safety. Both players were used very similar.
As a packer fan since the 1980’s, Leroy was a player that was great for blitzes and was great at coverage. The problem with Leroy’s career to me was his prime was shortened even before he retired after 2001. Leroy is going to be an interesting Senior committee case.
Brian Dawkins to me was better as forcing fumbles than Butler was and Dawkins prime was longer. While Brian and Leroy each had 4 first team all pro’s, Brian doubled the amount of pro bowls.
I was surprised to see that Boselli and Mills made the list, but can’t complain about either choice. Thomas and Woodson being left off were also minor surprises.
The biggest surprise for me is that only 6 defensive players made the list, while 6 offensive lineman made it. It’s clear that the voters are mostly locked in on about 20 guys, while the bottom 5 or so seem to be changing on a yearly basis now.
It will be interesting to see if either Craig or Mecklenburg can gain some traction this year. There is less holding them back at their positions than in recent years, and they will need to move to the next level(i.e. the finalist list) soon if they are to have any shot at getting in on the modern vote. Unfortunately, I don’t think that Jacoby or Kenn (and Mills to be honest) will have enough time to gain traction before entering the seniors pool.
Yeah, well NFL has turned offensive these days. When do you think Kevin Mawae will be inducted? I am thinking within next 4-5 years.
I think Kevin Mawae will get inducted in 4 years. My thinking is due to Pace, Faneca and Hutchinson will get inducted first.
Which coach you think has the best shot?
Dungy has been in final 10 the last two elections, seems to me he is primed for selection this year, not sure why Johnson would suddenly jump ahead of him for election. I see 2016 as another “clear the deck” election with recent finalists finally getting elected: Greene, Harrison, Pace and Dungy/Warner. Will really open up slots for future elections, including other sem-finalists and players getting close to final season as modern candidates, with weaker sets of 1st year nominees on the slate for 2017-2018..
Yeah I agree. It is definitely looking like Greene, Dungry. Harrison. Warner I think gets in next year.Nothing against him, but I don’t see the voters putting in 2 QBs in same class. Not that Kurt doesn’t deserve it, but he didn’t play long enough to be in right away or 2nd ballot. I see next year being Kurt, TO, and LT(possibly Jason Taylor) as the “locks”.
Not trying to switch topics, but looking at Shane Lechler and how is career is going(still punting at a great average), do you think he has a real shot at making the HOF? He is currently at 7/7/00s and could possibly be named to the 2010s ADT.
My guess is that Shane Lechler has the best shot at HoF induction of any post-Ray Guy punter. His postseason profile of 7/7/00s is comparable to Guy’s 6/7/70s, he is currently the career record holder for average yards per punt, and is just shy of being second all-time in punting yards behind Jeff Feagles. I’ve seen grumbles that he doesn’t get enough coffin corner punts, but am unsure if that’s true or not. That said, I suspect he’ll wait a good while before getting in — but with the precedent now having been set to induct a pure punter, I think he gets in eventually.
I agree. Ray Guy getting in helps him out. It gets the ball rolling. If Shane can reach 10 pro bowls and 1 more first team all pro then I feel even that much better about his chances. But, even if he doesn’t get anymore of either I believe he has done enough to get in. He was never on a SB winning team and has barely ever made the playoffs being mostly a Raider post 2002. Anyway, it is interesting the 2 best punters ever as far as resumes go(PBs/APs/ADT), are Raiders.
I have heard people on other blogs and NFL.com and other sites say Jeff Feagles deserves to be in. They simply don’t understand the difference between playing a long time and accumulating stats vs having quality seasons. Jeff Feagles is top 10-12 punter ever no doubt, if not higher but certainly doesn’t warrant any HOF selection. Going back to the 2016 HOF contenders. When do you people think Morten Andersen will be inducted?
I agree with bachslunch that Shane Lechler is the best punter in the post Ray Guy era that could get inducted at some point. My thinking though is he would be inducted as a senior committee candidate unless one of the future classes is weak.
Yeah I was going to type in if there is a weak class he could get in, but decided to be kinder.
Anyway, what % chance do you give TO getting in this year? I give him right around 10%. Nothing against him, but Jerry Rice is the only WR who has been elected first ballot of recent and well deserved. TO is 2nd in yards to him, but it’s a distant 2nd. If TO had 17-18k then I would raise his chances t0 30%.
I think it will be a long time, 20 years+ before you see another punter elected to the HOF. Problem is with the modern candidate process very unlikely a punter can advance into final 15 to even have a chance for debate and possible election, as there are always at least 15 more qualified regular players/coaches in the mix for the final 15. And I doubt any time soon with only 5 modern slots each year that we will have a weak class to allow serious consideration for a punter to be elected.
Since it only takes 8 votes to keep a player out of the HOF, I give TO a 0% of election this year as many voters will remember the negative impacts he had on every team he played for. I foresee 3-5 year wait for him, especially with Moss soon to be on the ballot as well. Some voters have long memories and will persist to deny him election for the foreseeable future.
I see 2017-2020 as pretty weak 1st year classes, so see room for M Anderson to give in during that period with perhaps only 1 first time player strong chance for election in each of those years. Several candidates from those years will eventually get elected but some are going to have 3-5 year waits given recent tendencies of HOF elections.
I give Terrell Owens zero percent chance this year. It is three reasons for me.
1.) I see Marvin Harrison getting in this year after waiting for the first couple times he was on the ballot.
2.) Wide Receivers usually don’t get inducted on their first time ballot.
3.) I think some voters may have a grudge against TO like Randy Moss will once Randy get on the ballot. TO has a lot of baggage and a bad reputation despite being one of the top 3 Wide Receivers in his era. The fact is TO is well known for his antics on and off the field despite him never getting arrested. He is well known for throwing quarterbacks under the bus, Basically calling Jeff Garcia a homosexual without any proof, complaining about not getting the ball enough despite who the Quarterback is including Tony Romo.
I think TO is going to get Inducted in the same amount of time as Paul mentioned. My belief is while TO isn’t always known as great person or a teammate, his stats are too hard not to be ignored and where he ranks in his era in Wide Receivers.
The best way to put it Michael Irvin didn’t wait long for getting inducted and I don’t see Terrell waiting more than 3 years as a result. What Terrell Owens did in his NFL career didn’t make him an angel, but he didn’t do stuff to get arrested like Michael Irvin did. Michael shouldn’t have been arrested 2 times in his NFL career instead of once, due to the Cowboys covered up the Scissor gate incident.
TO has HOF stats and will without a doubt be elected, but HOF voters will be in no rush to elect him because there is plenty of evidence that his actions on the field and as a player had a negative impact on the teams he played with. For all his faults off the field Irvin never gave less then 100% on the field and in support of his team and teammates, can not say that for TO and yes it matters beyond the numbers and will delay his election as it should. HOF is not only about pure numbers and should consider how a player contributed to his team as a teammate.on the field.
I know TO has a bad reputation. But, it’s the HOF for on field, not HOF for being a nice guy. I know he realistically has no chance this year, 10% is being kind. I would take him over Marvin Harrison for career. Harrison had Peyton (and vise versa). Terrell has solid QBs but none as good as Peyton. He was also hard to take down. Big guy, kind of like a lean TE. And always in excellent shape, even to this day I too agree Marvin should get in this year; he is due.
The thing with Terrell Owens with Quarterbacks though is most Wide Receivers don’t play with Quarterbacks as good as Peyton Manning. There are some Quarterbacks in the Pro Football Hall that aren’t as good as Peyton Manning matter of Fact.
Terrell Owens did start his career with a great QB in Steve Young. Steve Young to me was close to Peyton’s league in terms of a caliber of a Quarterback despite the fact I feel Joe Montana was the better of the 2 Quarterbacks. I thought Steve is the Best QB Terrell ever had although I think highly of Romo, and Mcnabb was a very good quarterback.
When Terrell got Steve Young, Steve was still a great QB. The only thing with Steve when Terrell was there, Terrell was not quite the Wide Receiver he was going to be later on.
Yes he had Steve Young, but he makes up of 15.6% of his receiving TDs. It’s not like he always had good QBs. 16.3% of his TDs are from Carson Palmer,Ryan Fitzpatrick,Tim Rattay,Drew Bledsoe,Ty Detmer,Brooks Bollinger,Trent Edwards,Terry Kirby, and Jeff Brohm. Carson and Drew had and are having good careers, but never an AP nor league MVP like Steve and Drew wasn’t the same QB as he was the many previous seasons prior to playing with TO. Anyway, I am not saying he played with okay QBs. Of course TO had good QBs with Tony Romo, Jeff Garcia, and Donovan McNabb, but again they were no Peyton Manning. And yes TO wasn’t the WR in the beginning as he was in later on, but it takes time. Look at Steve Young with Bucs. What you people think about the other WRs such as Hines Ward, Isaac Bruce, and Torry Holt among others?
I think evaluating WRs based on the quality (or lack there of) of their respective QBs and supporting cast can be a difficult and accurate assessment given all that is part of the modern passing game (coaches, schemes, game planning, overall talent etc…). For me did the WR made a sustained impact as reflected in season and career numbers and awards, and if you wrote the history of the era would they warrant significant mention. Based on that clearly TO is worthy. But whether any people gets elected in their 1st year on the ballot is more difficult to discern given factors of quality of pool, other equal or more deserving players, and elements of the debate/discussions that result if they are among the 15 modern candidates as finalists to be in a position to have their case made and the pro/cons. Personally there is enough evidence that on the field of play TO was a negative disruption that it should be taken into account by the voters as I suspect enough will so that he is looking at 3-5 year wait for election (I suspect given Moss’ actions in Oakland may also cost him a wait for election).
Future first time eligibles.
2017 – LaDainian Tomlinson, Jason Taylor, Brian Dawkins, Hines Ward.
2018 – Ray Lewis, Randy Moss, Brian Urlacher, Steve Hutchinson, Ronde Barber, Richard Seymour., Jason Hanson.
2019 – Tony Gonzalez, Ed Reed. Champ Bailey
2020 – Reggie Wayne, Troy Polamalu, Patrick Willis, Steven Jackson.
There’ll be 25 spaces for modern era candidates up until 2020, and there’s 25 semi finalists for 2016. How many from the future list will make it by 2020? I would say 6 or 7, maybe 8 at the most. That bodes well for most on the semi final list and everyone who makes the Final 15 in January, provided their eligibility doesn’t expire.
I think we’ll need to add John Abraham and Lance Briggs to the 2020 first time eligibles They haven’t been resigned yet as far as I know (others in limbo such as Dwight Freeney, Kevin Williams, and Wes Welker were, however)..
Out of those you mentioned, I Iike most to make it within their time as a modern candidate. LaDainian Tomlinson(1st ballot most likely, top 10 RB ever, if not better), Jason Taylor(could be 1st ballot, not sure if he will though, but will definitely get in within his first 3-4 years), Brian Dawkins(Safeties are underrepresented , which is a shame, so will have to wait like the rest), Hines Ward.(1k in receptions is a good milestone, especially on a run first team with The Bus and Willie Parker. Was a very good blocker too. Should get in on modern era ballot). Ray Lewis(Perhaps the best LB ever, first ballot lock), Randy Moss(Top 5 WR in my eyes, will have to wait because every WR beside Jerry Rice has), Brian Urlacher(Probably not first ballot, but will get in sooner rather than later), Steve Hutchinson(Will have to wait like most O-Linemen), Ronde Barber(Underrated career. Will wait because he is a D-Back, but shouldn’t wait until his modern candidacy is up), Richard Seymour(Will wait due to a low sack total, but will get in most likely on modern era)., Jason Hanson(Great career, but not HOF worthy in my opinion. Missing a couple AP seasons).
Tony Gonzalez(I see him getting in first ballot. Leads TEs in all stats and 2nd all time in receptions for any player), Ed Reed(1st ballot most likely. Top 10 D-back ever). Champ Bailey(Same with Ed, top 12-15 D-back ever). Reggie Wayne(Will be in the pool of WRs, eventually getting in), Troy Polamalu(Might have to wait a couple years, but will get in sooner rather than later), Patrick Willis(Short career, will have to wait a bit due to that, but should eventually get in), Steven Jackson.(He is an interesting case. I am not sure he gets in on modern era, but could in a weak class. Could get in via Senior Nominee because the league is changing to more of a passing league, so his #s will appear to be good enough to get in, especially with his string of 1k rushing seasons)
boknows I tend to agree with you.
My prediction is that the five year block of 25 slots from 2016-2020 looks something like this:
future: LaDainian Tomlinson, Jason Taylor, Brian Dawkins, Ray Lewis, Randy Moss, Tony Gonzalez, Ed Reed. Champ Bailey, (8 out of 18 from your list)
from 2016 finalists: Morten Andersen, Tony Boselli, Don Coryell, Terrell Davis, Tony Dungy, Alan Faneca, Brett Favre, Kevin Greene, Marvin Harrison, Edgerrin James, Jimmy Johnson, Ty Law, John Lynch, Kevin Mawae, Terrell Owens, Orlando Pace, Kurt Warner (17 out of 25).
One factor that is undetermined and really impacts this type of prediction is the issue HOF voters have with safeties as over the next few years as many as five could appear on the semi-finalist list (unless they finally start to elect some). So that needs to be sorted out, along with another logjam at WR. My prediction is based on continued delays by HOFers in resolving either of those issues in a major way over the next 5 years, leaving some S and WR still unelected by 2020.
I know only time will tell, but Phillip Rivers is continuing to play at a high level. If he reaches 60,000 yards or more with 400 or more TDs, do you think that would be enough to get in the HOF, even without a SB title/appearance? Counting stats in my eyes mean something. We use stats in regular season to make cases for players(which make up of about 75%) and the other 25% we use playoff stats. He is 33, will be 34 in about a week. He seems to have another 4-5 seasons, if not more. He hasn’t missed a start since he was named starter in 2006. He might leave the Chargers and play for a contender in future. Imagine him on the Vikings with AP and that solid defense right now?
His present 0/5 profile with not even a SM appearance is very weak. At age 33 could he still run up some big season numbers, perhaps All Pro, win MVP and get to a SB – sure, but such late career success is more uncommon then likely. To get to 60,000 yards he will need 20,000 more or five 4,000 yard season – again not impossible as it has been done before, but not by many HOF QBs. Chance to move to another team, SM contender, may help but we are still projecting improved seasons for a QB at the tail end of a career, very hard to predict. Again high level production from a QB over the age of 35 is rare, even though with Brady, Manning and Brees we have seen it in recent years. At some point health and arm strength and mobility become an issue, sometimes it happens fast with little notice. Look at Payton mid season in 2014 (at age 37) to current compared to 2013 season or Bees this yearat age 36 (still a good season but numbers are way down and health issues starting to emerge)..
Phillip should be in PB this year and possibly for next 2-3 years, could bring total to 9 total. What really didn’t help Peyton was his 4 or so neck surgeries within 2 years or so. I don’t think Brees has that many surgeries, especially on an important part of your body. Drew may not be the same, but he is good enough to QB for a lot of teams next 5-6 years. He honestly never needed to get in HOF; his numbers are staggering. Easily first ballot lock. Even by some miracle Peyton, Brady, (maybe even Aaron Rodgers) and Brees retire same year, they get in first ballot; kind of like the last Baseball HOF class with that trio of incredible pitchers. He looks as if he will be playing until he is 40 and Peyton will retire most likely end of the year. I give it a slim chance he returns to any team for 1 more year. QBs and the HOF in who have played during 2000s-2028 or so is going to be interesting. Outside the core 4(Brady, Manning,Brees,Rodgers), Eli, Big Ben. Rivers, Romo, Newton, Luck, and Wilson are among the ones who have great starts or have borderline worthy case; needing another 4-5 years of playing well. Then possibly Derek Carr and Andy Dalton,and someone within next 4-5 draft classes could emerge. If Andy can from now on put up good postseason #s, which he is talented enough to do; then I say he could have a case for QBs playing in 2010’s through 2020’s decade. He has a winners mentality. He is no Colin K for 49ers. Decent player but inconsistent and is closer to a game manger than Andy by a mile. I do see this era as you need a 4k season, or more to have a quality year. 15-20 years ago 4k was worth more. It is just what it is. Now, of course you got Newton and Wilson and their rushing ability, not so much on passing for a lot of yards. That should be taken in for consideration on how good they are.
Most HOF QBs had established themselves as solid candidates (pro bowls, All Pro, SBs, big season numbers) by their early 30s – then added to their resumes as they closed out their careers, most of them by 35 or 36.. Very rare to see a QB in his mid 30s add more quality and rise to the level of a HOF QB. I think without a SB time is going to run out on Rivers and Romo and this idea that at 34/35 both will have another 3-4 high quality seasons is very unlikely – history shows that. And Drew Brees will be 37 before next season so to suggest he will be good enough to QB for a lot of teams next 5-6 years.is also very unlikely (however in his case his resume is already strong enough for HOF consideration). What you saw at the end of 2014 with Manning (at then age 38) is all too common for most players including QBs. What we are seeing with Brady (at age 38) is rare, and good turn bad at any time, often unpredictably, going forward.
Payton, Brady, Brees and Rogers are not going to retire the same year as looks like Payton is done this year or next. Brees perhaps a few more seasons, Brady same or more, Rogers at 32 likely has at least 4-5 years more left. Possible at some point in the early to mid 2020s HOF could be electing 1st year eligible QBs in successive years for 4-5 years, more so they anytime in HOF elections since the early 1990s.
And I think the just is still out on the best young QBs of the 2010s decade and beyond, likely will be until 2020 that was have a better idea about Luck, Newton and Wilson, and then recent and future drafted QBs.
By the time we get into the 2020s HOF discussions I feel that beyond Brady, Manning,Brees,Rodgers, the next to be considered will be Eli, Big Ben. That would get HOF to 6 QBs from 2000-2015 period, not so sure any others get in from those that player majority and peak careers during that era, at least as modern candidates.
I was just saying if something as crazy as those 3 or 4 retiring same year, voters would put them all through first time around most likely.
I think it would be great if Karl Mecklinburg somehow advanced to the finalist position. It is not that I don’t see Johnson or Dungy as hall of famers, but there are so many players that should get in the HOF that have to wait until the Seniors pool. I am not a Broncos Fan in the least but Mecklinburg and Atwater are just surprising omissions. I get Terrell Davis and the longevity issue but that is not the case for either Mecklinburg or Atwater.
I believe they will fall under the same fate as Gradishar.
Jason Witten needs 2 receptions to join Tony Gonzalez as only TEs to reach 1k in receptions. He is definitely a HOFer, especially with a profile of 2/10/00s, may be a first ballot if he can play another 4-5 seasons and snatch 65-70 balls each season. He may be used as a pass catcher a ton. but he can block very well like a traditional Tight End. Why I think he could get in first ballot. Larry Fitzgerald just got his 1000th reception as well(Youngest to do so). I could see him playing same amount of years too. Could end up with same number of receptions as Witten. Will be an interesting 2-3 years for receivers not only for active, but eligible.
Oops I didn’t mean to say he made 00s decade(although it’s a shame he couldn’t since only 2 slots and Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates had more APs. Witten has easily proven he is 1 of the best TEs to ever play in the NFL/AFL/AAFC/APFA)
Yeah, unfortunately All Pro voters don’t tend to take blocking into account for TEs the way I think they should.
While I definitely think Jason Witten will get into the HoF, I don’t think he’ll be first ballot. No TE ever has been — and if memory serves, the shortest waiting period for induction at this position is after three years eligible (if memory serves Winslow and Sharpe) . We’ll see if Tony Gonzalez becomes the first ever first-ballot TE — but there’s a possibility it might not happen even in his case.
I agree, Tony Gonzalez is the real test upcoming for HOF voters regarding TEs as yes historically they have not been so inclined to elect 1st year TEs to the HOF. I can see some voters (and I do not agree) holding lack of TDs and SBs against Witten. Also what if he is on the ballot with Gates? I strongly feel Witten is a HOFer but can foresee 3-5 year wait. I actually met him in the audience at the HOF induction in 2010 for Emmitt Smith so it would be pretty cool to go back to close the circle for his election.
While Jason Witten is future Hall of Fame Tight End, he’s not a first ballot Hall of Fame Player. I agree with bachslunch that Gonzalez is the test if there is such a thing as a first ballot Hall of Fame Tight End.
The reason with Jason Witten not being a first Ballot Hall of Player is3 things. The Hall of Fame voters rarely vote Wide Receivers into Canton on the first ballot and it is even worse for Tight Ends.
The 2nd thing is the Hall of Fame Voters actually look at Tight Ends as Wide Receivers. I am saying that because what the voters said about Shannon shape. This is a problem for Witten because Voters don’t like low touchdown numbers at all and getting a 1000 receptions is more of a common place.
The 3rd thing is Jason is used as an old School time receiving tight End. Old school Tight Ends are used used for getting first downs more than Touchdowns. Jason’s going to end up with 60 plus Touchdowns, but that is low considering compared to Rob Gronkowski, Gates, Gonzalez,
I do agree Jason will have to wait, but if he continues to play, he could end up with #s close to Tony Gonzalez when he played. Anyway, at least we all agree he deserves to be in. I know getting 1,000 receptions for career is going to be a lot more common than it was 15 years ago. But, doesn’t take away from what Jason has accomplished. And yes he has a low TD total, but he isn’t a TE that cares about stats. He cares about winning.
Charles Woodson has announced he’s retiring at the end of the season.
He’ll be eligible in 2021.
If Peyton also retires it would be fitting if both went in together, having finished 1-2 in the Heisman vote in 1997.
They were also #1 and #4 1998 draft picks (not looking like #2 or #3 getting into HOF anytime!), same draft has two other 1st round HOFers in Moss (#21) and Faneca (#26)
Brandon Marshall is approaching 1k in receptions. He has had 1k 8 of last 9 seasons. Could play another 4-5 years if he keeps this up. If he gets to 1,100-1,200 receptions, 14.000-15,000 yards, and 95-105 TDs and a profile of 2/8/10s possbly, would be hard to leave him out.
2016 modern finalists to be announced Thursday Jan. 7th at 8am on NFL Network
sorry make that 8pm
Thought i would give it a shot on the finalists
1. Morten Anderson
2. Tony Boselli
3. Roger Craig
4. Terrell Davis
5. Tony Dungy
6. Alan Faneca
7. Brett Favre
8. Kevin Greene
9. Marvin Harrison
10. Joe Jacoby
11. Ty Law
12. John Lynch
13. Terrell Owens
14. Orlando Pace
15. Kurt Warner
Finalists http://www.nfl.com/halloffame/story/0ap3000000618896/article/brett-favre-terrell-owens-highlight-2016-hall-of-fame-finalists
I already have an idea for 4 out of the 5 who are going be inducted to the hall of fame out of the modern area. I have Brett Favre, Kevin Green, Orlando Pace, Marvin Harrison, I’m guessing the 5th is going to be Terrell Davis. I like to say Don Coryell, but I think not having a Super Bowl win is hurting him despite how he impacted the game from an offensive standpoint.
My thinking of Davis because the class is weak enough for him and Davis does have a lot of support for the Hall of Fame.