The list of candidates for the 2011 Pro Football Hall of Fame class has been narrowed to 15 and it includes three running backs making the cut in their first years of eligibility.
Marshall Faulk, Jerome Bettis and Curtis Martin all survived the winnowing if the list. So did multi-time finalist wide receivers Tim Brown, Cris Carter and Andre Reed, as well as tight end Shannon Sharpe.
First ballot tackle Willie Roaf and multi-time finalist center Dermontti Dawson represent offensive linemen on the list while defenders still under consideration include linemen Richard Dent, Chris Doleman, Charles Haley and Cortez Kennedy. Defensive back Deion Sanders, another first ballot candidate, rounds out the players.
Ed Sabol, founder of NFL Films, is also a finalist as a contributor.
That means coach Don Coryell, running backs Roger Craig and Terrell Davis, linebacker Kevin Greene, defensive backs Lester Hayes and Aeneas Williams, punter Ray Guy, owners Art Modell and Edward DeBartolo Jr., former Commissioner Paul Tagliabue and contributor George Young did not make the cut this year.
The 15 finalists who did make the cut join senior candidates Les Richter and Chris Hanburger, who were announced in August, as candidates for induction in the 2011 Hall of Fame class.
The class of 2011 will be determined on Saturday, February 5 the day before Super Bowl XLV and will be announced that evening at 6 p.m. Central Time during a special on the NFL Network. The enshrinement ceremony will be held Saturday, August 6 in Canton, Ohio.
According to the Hall of Fame’s selection criteria, no more than five modern-era candidates can be selected in any given year and a class of six or seven enshrinees can only be achieved if one or both of the senior candidates are elected.
Last year’s senior candidates, Floyd Little and Dick LeBeau, both were elected as part of the 2010 class, which included wide receiver Jerry Rice, running back Emmitt Smith, defensive lineman John Randle, linebacker Rickey Jackson and offensive lineman Russ Grimm. Headlined by Rice and Smith, it was hailed by some as the strongest ever.
Fan packages are on sale now at the Pro Football Hall of Fame website.
So … does anyone who made it or who didn’t surprise or particularly disappoint you? My hunch is that Faulk and Sanders are near locks as first-timers. I prioritize Cris Carter over the other receivers and I’m leaning Dawson over Roaf as an offensive lineman. I suspect one defensive lineman will get in as well. I lean Kennedy, though Haley would not surprise me either. I also suspect both senior candidates will get in.
My list would leave Sabol out. This would lend some credence to Sports Illustrated Reporter Peter King’s recent assessment that it’s too difficult for contributors to earn enshrinement. I think Sabol was a genius and ahead of his time so I wouldn’t be disappointed if he replaced whichever defensive lineman gets enshrined.
Nonetheless, this appears to be another strong and deserving class, as many of the folks who didn’t make the list of finalists can write a pretty good case for themselves as far as deserving a bronze bust in Canton.
We are looking forward to hearing your thoughts.
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In terms of defense players on this list of 15 modern candidates I would suggest that in addition to Sanders, Dent has been moving up the list in recent elections and could go in this year before Haley, Kennedy and others. I am not so sure Dawson will make it this year as I am thinking it is about time Sharpe is elected. 2012 will be a much weaker year for first time eligable players (Will Shelds) so it is more likely that several on this 2011 list will have a much better change next year (Bettis, another WR, Haley, Dawson or Roaf, and Martin).
Some interesting things:
-glad to see Ed Sabol get this far. Am thinking that he’ll probably get elected, and I’m all for it.
-wasn’t sure if Willie Roaf would get this far in his first year, but since he did, am thinking this bodes pretty well for his candidacy down the road. I doubt he gets in for a few years, though — Dermontti Dawson is probably in the pecking order ahead of him this year.
-I’m actually not that surprised to see Don Coryell and Roger Craig not get this far this year, as they were arguably the weakest of last year’s 15 modern era folks.
-this is Chris Doleman’s first time this far. It’s kind of interesting that he reached finalist stage and not Kevin Greene. I doubt he gets to the next group of 10 in the final vote.
-two Raiders in their last year of eligibility who had been finalists in past, Ray Guy and Lester Hayes, did not reach this level and now drop into the Senior pool.
Who ultimately gets in? Good question, as always. Am thinking Deion Sanders and Ed Sabol are locks and Marshall Faulk has a really good chance this year. Am thinking (and hoping) the two Seniors are elected. Two more slots at most are possible under this scenario, and am thinking two from Dermontti Dawson, Cortez Kennedy, and Andre Reed have the best chance. If Faulk doesn’t make it, Dawson, Kennedy, and Reed might all be elected.
I can’t say that any of the Finalists are a huge surprise to me personally. I picked 12 of the 15 correctly on the other thread, but the 3 that I got wrong weren’t major surprises (I had Greene, Craig and Coryell moving on instead of Martin, Bettis and Doleman).
I thought that maybe Martin’s support would be low because he never was really considered the top back in the league. I was a fan of his though, as he was the perfect model of consistency and was a very complete back, so it’s nice to see that the voters respect his body of work. I figured that either Greene or Doleman would move up, and figured it was a tossup. I am mildly surprised that Bettis was named a finalist. I think that he’s been overrated by the media for years, but in his defense he does have great counting stats, a good postseason award profile (6 PB / 2 AP) and a ring.
As bachslunch said, Craig and Coryell were probably the weakest finalists from last year. I thought that maybe Coryell would get some sentimental votes, but apparently that was not enough.
Overall, this is a stacked field and it’ll be tough to pick just 5 guys, as I think all 15 are worthy of induction. I have to fully agree with Andy’s prediction in the original post regarding the inductees, and here is why:
Faulk and Sanders are shoo-ins as 1st ballot inductees. I have heard some people raise some doubt about Faulk, but as an MVP, Offensive Player of the Year, Super Bowl Champion and his rep as maybe the best backfield receiver ever, I think that makes up for his relative lack of counting stats. Faulk’s induction also very likely means Martin and Bettis don’t get in.
I think that Carter makes it in over Brown and Reed. They need to get one of these guys in this year because they’re creating too much of a backlog at the WR position. Reed had more support last year, but to me Carter’s exclusion has gone on too long. I was shocked 2 years ago when Ralph Wilson made it in over him. I think Sharpe probably will get squeezed out again, because the voters have recently placed an emphasis on not skewing the ballot too much toward offensive players.
The Hall of Fame has had a pattern of getting in 1 offensive lineman for years and I think that will continue this year. Dawson was a final 10 candidate last year and I think he sneaks in over Roaf this year. Willie Roaf has an amazing resume with 11 Pro Bowls, 3 1st Team All-Pros and 2 all-decade teams, but it’s very hard for a lineman to make it in on the 1st ballot. I think his lack of playoff success (1 playoff win) will be just enough to keep him out until next year.
For the last spot, it’ll be very tight. I think Doleman and Haley are a step behind Dent and Kennedy in terms of support, and I think that Kennedy’s steady climb up the queue will result in induction this year. I’ve never been crazy about Dent’s candidacy, and it’s obvious that he’s missing support among the voters too. He’s consistently in the Final 10, but has seemed to get stuck there and has been leapfrogged by Derrick Thomas, John Randle and even Rickey Jackson. He was in fact in the final group of 7 a few years ago but actually got voted down.
I think Sabol is a wildcard here. There is no reason to keep him out except that he’d be taking a spot away from a deserving player, so I could see him sneaking in over a guy like Cortez Kennedy.
There’s no reason to keep out either of the seniors this year. Both guys made it to at least 8 Pro Bowls and Hanburger especially is one of the biggest snubs of the Hall of Fame.
Also, to reference Paul’s last point, I also think 2012 will be a very interesting year for inductions as well. It’ll act as a catch up year with only 2 decent first-time candidates (Bill Parcells and Will Shields), and also will likely present us with at least a couple new names to debate.
With only 2 likely 1st ballot semi-finalists and 7 guys dropping off the list (this year’s 5 inductees, Ray Guy and Lester Hayes), we’re guaranteed at least 4 new names next year. I think it’s likely that Steve Tasker rejoins the frey and that former semi-finalists Joe Jacoby and Donnie Shell have a good chance to return, but I’d love to see some new names on the list like Steve Atwater or Ron Wolf.
Oops, my last paragraph wasn’t real clearly worded. When I said “new names”, I meant guys that are currently eligible in 2011 but weren’t on the semifinalist list. Definitely time for me to stop rambling…
I sincerely hope Dent finally gets in. I understand the allure of some of the offensive players, but Dent was a force in his time, a Super Bowl MVP and the key player to the Bears’ 46 defense. Since Dan Hampton is in the Hall, Dent should already be there. I also like Tim Brown for his endurance. Bettis and Faulk will get in on name and reputation. I hope Sabol does get in. NFL Films has been revolutionary in promoting the game worldwide.
C-Mart? a 2nd ballot? 3rd ballot? 4th ballot, etc?
Yes I can see C-mart as a 3rd or 4th ballot selection
This year is stacked. The selectors are going to have a very difficult time.
If past is prologue, then we can expect at least one (and probably two) first ballot guys, an offensive lineman, a defensive player, a potential suprise selection, and no receivers (only partially joking). One thing to consider is that both senior candidates are defensive players. Therefore, if the voters are confident that one or both will be elected (and as I understand it, that vote takes place before the voters consider the 15 modern finalist), then Dent, Kennedy, and the other non-Sanders defensive players may be shut out. In turn, that may open up another slot for either Ed Sabol or one of the recently ignored receivers. With that in mind, I predict the following class of 2011:
1) Sanders (Everyone seems to agree he is the best DB of the past 20 years)
2) Faulk (Proto-type of new breed of running back)
3) Dawson (Best center since his predecessor in Pittsburgh)
4) Sharpe (Proto-type of new tight ends)
5) Sabol (sentimental pick, but still well deserving)
This list again assumes that Carter, Brown, and Reed continuing to cancel each other out. And the senior candidates frustrate Dent, Kennedy, etc.
The only other player that I consider a serious candidate this year is Roaf. He was an amazing left tackle with hugh post-season numbers. The most serious draw back is that he played in relative obscurity in KC and NO and he might not have been as good as two future candidates: Walters and Ogden. Will be interesting to see what type of support he gets.
It is also worth noting that of this year’s 15 finalist, virtual all will likely make it into the hall eventually. Very, very strong group.
Tony, I think Dent will get inducted in the next 2-3 years. I know that a lot of Bears fans have been mad that he’s been passed over lately by what they perceive as inferior or at least equal pass rushers like Dean, Tippett, and Jackson. With that said though, all of the players had one thing in common: they had all waited longer than Dent to get in. Dent now has that advantage over Haley, Greene, Doleman and Kennedy and I think that that will lead to him getting in through the 2012 election. Personally, I’d rank Dent’s qualifications as 5th out of those 5 guys, but I still think he’s a worthy candidate and I’d be in favour of getting him in soon to prevent the Senior candidates backlog from eventually growing by another member.
Brad, I see Martin as a 3rd or 4th year inductee. I think it’ll depend on whether the voters think of him or Bettis as the better back…personally I’d take Martin, but everybody in the media seems to love Bettis. Like I’ve said before, the skill position players that are eligible right now are going to be competing against each other almost exclusively over the next couple of years, with only Marvin Harrison coming up as a close-to-a-lock candidate between now and 2015. That bodes well for everybody’s chances of getting in.
Justin, fantastic post, especially your comment about the senior candidates. I think that both Senior candidates should get in this year, and if that happens, Ed Sabol probably becomes a near lock at making it in over Kennedy, Dent, etc. That would give the class 3 defensive players (Sanders, Hanburger, Richter) and we’ve only ever seen 4 defensive players make the Hall in the same class once (2008) since they started the finalist format.
Also, the more that people bring up the possibility that Sharpe might leapfrog the receivers, the more I’m starting to think that that will happen!
I really don’t care who makes the Hall of Fame but, if Tim Brown does not make it this time around, the people who decides this are idiots. Lets look at the facts….Brown has nearly 15000 yads, about 1100 receptions with 100 touchdowns despite having to deal with medicore quarterbacks like Jay Schroeder, Jeff Hostetler, Jeff George, Todd Marinovich, Donald Hollis, Billy Joe Hobert, Rick Mirer, Vince Evans, and probaly more that I cant think who have started for the oakland raiders at quarterback and then finally in the last years of his carrer he had the great Rich Gannon…oh yea and never had Tim Brown had other reciever threats like Chris Carter did with Randy Moss and Jake Reed….Rice had with John Taylor, Brent Jones, TO, ROger Craig…..Reed had with Don BeBe…So despite playing with medicore ( at best) quarterbacks and no other offensive threats, Tim Brown has put up the best numbers of any of the remaining receivers hall of fame candidates and as far as all the new guys like TO, Marvin Harrison, and Randy Moss passing Tim Brown on the all time recieveing list, I sure wish when Tim Brown played, DB’s couldn’t touch him past five yards…Tim Brown is arguable the greatest reciever of all time to all you raider hating scumbags!
Sabol is really the unknown wild card here as he has never been discussed as a candidate in the room before and you are asking voters to select him over a player that has been considered in the past such as Dawson, Dent, Carter or Sharpe. But having followed this elections for a number of years I agree with the observation that every election brings a surprise and maybe it is Sabol this yer, but that will cost a very deserving player candidate. Hard to say how the voters will feel about leaving off one of those players.
Raider John,
You make a couple of decent arguments, but you lose me at “Raider hating scumbags.” While there may be some out there, the folks who’ve debated who should be in and who shouldn’t on this site have been pretty civil and educated in their arguments. I certainly don’t remember anyone vehemently arguing that Brown should not be in. I’d be fine with him getting in, though I think Cris Carter deserves to get in first.
One area where your argument fails, however, is when you say you wish Tim Brown played when DBs couldn’t touch him past five yards. The five-yard chuck rule, AKA the Mel Blount rule, was enacted in 1978. I know that the enforcement of the rule was stepped up within the last few years, but the biggest change to the way D-Backs could play receivers had been in place for 10 years when Brown got to the league. So he played under the same enforcement of the rules as Andre Reed, Jerry Rice, Cris Carter, etc.
So, while Brown was a great receiver, and I think he is as worthy a Hall candidate as either of the other mainstays currently under discussion, I think arguing that he was better than Rice and some others is, at best, a stretch.
http://sports.outsidethebeltway.com/2008/05/nfl-rules-named-after-players/
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BrowTi00.htm
Nonetheless, thank you for your post. I hope you’ll come back and read through the site and post again – while realizing that the regular posters here are merely educated fans with opinions and not the “Raider hater scumbags” responsible for whether or not your team’s players actually get into the Hall.
@RaiderJohn
Don Beebe? Really? The guy with a career high of 40 catches, who in his 6 years with the Bills amassed 164 catches? That’s your argument for guys that made life easier for Andre Reed? Try Thurman Thomas, or James Lofton–who, by the way, played with Brown in his rookie season–and while not his best season, probably made Brown’s rookie year a little easier for him. Bill Brooks, Quinn Early…heck even Pete Metzelares or Eric Moulds (late in his career), all better examples if you’re really going to try to make that argument.
But, let’s not forget, Brown played a couple years with Lofton/Willie Gault (not in their primes, but still viable threats), and played with Mervyn Fernandez (not a superstar, but had 3-4 pretty good seasons) and James Jett (same), and had a couple of TE that were about as good as Metzelares for the Bills in Ethan Horton/Andrew Glover. Not to mention a year with…Jerry Rice.
I do not think it at all arguable that Brown is the best WR in the history of the game–Jerry Rice has that spot hands down. At least, I’ve not seen an argument yet that I think holds water. You think he was surrounded by more talent? Then he shouldn’t have put up the numbers that far surpass other WR. You think it was the QB? He made two QB look really good. You think it was the system? No other WR has put up the same career numbers, even though that system (or variations of it) have been used extensively since then.
What is arguable is who deserves to go in first (and who was better) between Brown, Carter and Reed. I’ll admit, when he was playing, I wasn’t sure Brown was even a HOF guy–in part because a lot of his career, the Raiders just weren’t that noteworthy (I might be a bit skewed on that too, being more of an midwestern/NFC guy who didn’t watch a lot of afternoon AFC games during Brown’s career), but they only had five seasons of 10+ wins (and seven above .500) during his career, from what I can tell.
Combine that with the fact that I saw Carter play a lot–including years where his supporting cast wasn’t that much better (Sean Salisbury? Rich Gannon’s early years? Wade Wilson?), and his better catch & TD numbers, and I thought Carter would go in before him.
As for Reed, I wasn’t even sure he was an HOF caliber player until we started debating on this site–numbers wise, I don’t think he matches up to Brown or Carter, but he did finish his career first, and wasn’t far off stats wise.
So who gets in first? I’m on record (in our 2011 NFL Hall of Fame Inductees post) saying Brown will go this year, even though I don’t necessarily agree with it. And Reed has finished higher than both of them in the voting the last two years.
So who really knows?
Sorry for calling people scumbags, but my main argument is that Tim Brown has put up first ballot hall of fame numbers despite playing with less talent around him……If Tim Brown played with hall of fame quartebacks like Joe Montana, Steve Young (a joke that he was first ballot hall of famer by the way), Jim Kelly, he to would have super bowl rings and playoff success….Oh yea I also forgot about coaches like Bill Walsh, Marv Levy, and even Dennis Erickson I do agree that Rice is the greatest when looking at his numbers even though he played nearly a decade more than Tim Brown as a reciever……I am sure your Reed’s, Carter’s, and Rice’s would not have the success they have had if they played on the Raiders throughout the 90’s and my comment about not being able to touch a reciever after five yards I am refering to teh current recievers like Randy Moss, TO, and the rest of the recievers who will past Tim Brown stats in the near future not the older recievers like Reed, Carter, and Rice….hell why not make it a all raider class this year: Tim Brown, Lester Hayes, Jim Plunket, Ken Stabler, Ray Guy, Tom Flores…lol jk that would be cool thoughif you a Raider fan
Fair enough. I don’t think you’d get many arguments from people who frequently visit this topic here on the point that Brown deserves to be in or, even, possibly that he deserved to be in on the first or second ballot. He put up great numbers, without a doubt.
One problem is that there’s been a backlog in recent years. You make the case for Brown. And it’s a strong one. But someone else could make an equally strong argument for Carter or for Reed. And none of you would necessarily be wrong.
The other thing Brown faced, at least as far as being a first ballot guy, is that he retired from the league the same year Jerry Rice did. Nobody can argue that Jerry Rice didn’t deserve to go in his first year. Many say last year’s class was the strongest one ever. As I’ve looked back, I believe if it’s not the strongest it’s one of the top two or three.
And looking back through Hall classes back to 1990, I’m not finding a year when two WRs went in at the same time. So Brown will get in, I’m fairly certain of that.
I think what you say about Reed, Carter and Rice not having the same success they had if they played for the Raiders is a bit speculative. If you shuffle those guys around to different teams, sure, it changes the dynamics of who they play with and all that, but Brown put up great numbers with the Raiders during that time period. And each of the three receivers you mentioned was also a great player and, in my opinion, would largely have overcome the lack of a supporting cast.
As Tony mentioned, Carter played with some mediocre quarterbacks on undertalented teams too. So I think those statements are just a little too hard to quantify. It’s a roll of the dice, as far as I’m concerned, as to what order Brown, Carter and Reed make it. But I think each of them will. This year’s class is another tough one with Sanders and Faulk being, I think, lock first ballot guys. But if memory serves, the guys gaining eligibility the next couple years aren’t quite as strong. So voters will probably start dealing with a chunk of the backlog, I would guess.
Raider John, the biggest difficulty with your argument that Brown is a first ballot guy is that there is no such thing as a first ballot Hall of Fame WR except Jerry Rice. Lofton took a couple of years. Same with Irvin. Monk had to wait NINE years, and he retired as the all time receptions leader. Hayes was a seniors selection. Swann and Stallworth waited almost 20 years combined. Now, I know we can argue about whether some of the above should even be in the hall, but the bigger point is that it is very difficult to get in the hall of fame as a receiver. Guys like Herman Moore and Andre Rison with multiple pro bowls and insane numbers haven’t even made it to the semifinalist list. I think we all agree that the selectors need to deal with the backlog, but they either aren’t inclined or don’t know how to do so. My gut is that Carter is the most deserving, but it looks like Reed is the most likely to get in sooner rather later. Unfortunately, I don’t think it will be is year.
I will say this. If Jerry Rice wasn’t eligible last year, than I say Tim Brown would have been selected first ballot. He has north of 14,000 receiving yards, and the 5th most punt return yards in NFL history. Prett impressive. But regardless, they will all get in eventually (Carter, Reed, and Brown). Trying to stay on topic, I personally think Randy Moss is a first ballot hall of famer. Led the NFL in receiving TDs 5 times. He has seasons of 23, 17, 17, and 15 in receiving TDs. He is a 7x pro bowler and 4x first team all pro. He is only 33 years old. So, he has at least 3 more seasons, IMO. Now, do I think he will be a first ballot? No, because of his antics. I think he deserves to be first ballot, but the voters will let in other players before him.
Moss is a topic for his own thread, but I will say this: He will be perhaps the most hotly debated player ever. Hall of Famers aren’t suppose to take multiple years off in the middle of their careers (the same complaint I have with Warner as a HOF candidate). Hall of Famers are suppose to competitively disadvantage their teams (same complaint I have with Owens as a HOF candidate). Hall of Famers aren’t suppose to “waste” their talents (same complaint people are like
Y to have with Julius Peppers some day). I agree Moss will likely get in eventually, but it won’t be on the first ballot. And that won’t be because of his “antics.”. It will be because he challenges our ideas of what a hall of fame’s is.
Where’s Kevin Greene? List seems decent. Better than the fans list on http://www.fanschoice.com/home.php?r=1 I would vote in Deion Sanders, Marshall Faulk, Cortez Kennedy, Dermonti Dawson and Charles Haley.
No doubt Haley is the controversial pick. It’s between Haley and Dent and if they ever are going to let one in I have to believe Haley will be seen as the better player but it’s close. Dent will make it as a Senior pick as will Lester Hayes and some other of the Raiders Thhe Hall Voters likely won’t give Al Davis much more satisfication while he’s above ground. :)
On the Fanschoice voting it clearly looks slanted towards Buffalo and Oakland players. Fred Smerlas??LOL I’d be OK with that if Bob Baumhower and Joe Klecko get serious consideration.
Joe Klecko should get in one day. He was a great all around lineman. Pro Bowled in three different positions on the line(Nose Tackles, Defensive Tackle, and Defensive End) and was first team All Pro as a NT and DE.
my picks for the 2011 pro football hof would be either cris carter and/or andre reed to fill in the wide receiver need, marshall faulk and deion sanders will get in their first eligibility, the two senior nominees chris hanburger and les richter will get in, one of the defensive ends, either dent or haley will get in, and lastly it will probably go down to shannon sharpe or ed sabol to make up the 7 guys for the 2011 class. so my picks are as follows:
Cris Carter
Richard Dent
Marshall Faulk
Chris Hanburger
Les Richter
Deion Sanders
and Shannon Sharpe
Although I had a similar list previously, I am now thinking that Sharpe may be canceled out by Carter, leaving a spot for Sabol – who it appears is gathering some stream towards election. Sharpe even though a TE may be too much of an overlap with the candidacy of Carter. Either way there certainly is room in from 2012 through 2014 for Sharpe and remaining WRs currently on the ballot (Brown and Reed).
Big Ben will be a Hall Of Famer. He is only 28 years old and has two rings and another chance to get another one. He has 144 passing TD’s, 86 Int’s, 22,502 passing yards, 63.1 comp. percentage. His career passer rating is 92.5, 8th best all time. He is 69-29 as a starter, 10-2 in the playoffs. He is in good shape in my mind to get into Canton. I bring up players who have years left, but his resume is impressive. It’s better, as fat as postseason goes, than Favre or Peyton. Ill take 10-2 record over 13-11(Brett) or 9-10(Peyton). He has as many rings as they do combined. Yes, he is blessed with a great defense, but the QB is the most important position. I hope he doesn’t turn into another Jim Plunkett. Ben is a solid QB. Top 5 easily in the NFL. Time will tell, but I don’t see why he wouldn’t make it eventually.
Plunkett was a magician in the pocket making him one of the top improv QB of his day like Big Ben does today. In addition neither looked the part of an athlete and both were great leaders in the big games. If Big Ben played for the Patriots of the early 1970’s he likely would of had the same floundering start to his career Plunkett did. Lucky to play for the Steelers. It’s amazing how Plunk pulled his career out of the fire playing with the Raiders. I’d put Plunkett in the HOF for how he finished his career but it’s sentimental not stats.
IMO Ben like Terry Bradshaw before him won their first Ring in spite of their play. LOL It was bad!! So Ben’s going for his 2nd Ring not 3rd. :) If Ben wins this one he’ll be in front of Plunkett and Warner but still rate him behind the Top QB’s at winning but it’ll be very hard to keep out of the HOF . Than if he was to somehow get a 4th Ring I’d put Ben infront of Staubach, Manning, Favre and Bradshaw and on par with Brady than only trailing the greatest of all Joe Montana. However, I think Brady he has another Championship in him playing for New England but I think Manning is done.
I will say, from a Jets fan, Tom Brady can become the greatest QB of all time. Yes, ahead of Joe Montana. Joe had Jerry Rice. On the defense, they had Ronnie Lott. One of the greatest players of all time. Tom Brady doesn’t have one player like that or close on his Super Bowl winning teams. And to say it is all Bill Belichick is the reason why Tom is good, I think isn’t smart to say. Look at Bill’s season record’s with the Browns and one year without Tom Brady, his rookie year. he was 5-11. Tom had 3 passing yards.
The next year, Drew Bledsoe started 0-3, than Mo Lewis, former Jet great, hurt him badly. Than comes in Tom Brady and they won the Super Bowl. And you know the rest. Those are facts which can’t be argued. I think he will play another 5-6 years, I agree, he could win one or two more. His team is relatively young and they went 14-2. But my Jets knocked them out, FINALLY. By the way, the Jets will be Super Bowl contenders for years to come. Will make it too. They are heading into the right direction.
I also think Peyton Manning is done. Will play 4 more years and just retire with a sub .500 postseason record. Yes, he has excellent regular season stats, but postseason is more important IMP. Big Ben, 10-2. I will defend him, just like when I defend Mark Sanchez, who is 4-2 in his 2nd season. QBs are the most important position in the NFL. At the most important position, the player can’t screw up or they will lose games. Yes, Big Ben has mediocre postseason stats, but he makes plays when he needs to , just like Mark Sanchez. Expect, Mark has pretty good numbers. 9 TD’s to only 3 Int’s.
Is Troy Vincent a Hall of Famer?
Great points about Montana. I agree. Not sure what to think about Sanchez so early in his career. Troy Vincent will not be a HOFer.
One player that needs to be given his due is the Steelers’ Donnie Shell. He was a key to the Steeler Defense sustaining dominance for the 3rd and 4th SB rings. Often he was overshadowed by Mel Blount (best CB of All-time) during the announcers call of of game but he still recieved the acolades (5 PB/ 3 AP) he deserved tough play and 51 ints.. He was one hell of a Strong Safety.
If the Steeler Defense was one of the best of All-time and they were than they deserve representation in the HOF. Why do they only have 3 defensive players in the HOF while the Offense has 6? More generally it’s time to give Safeties their due in the HOF starting with Johnny Robinson through Cliff Harris – Jake Scott – Donnie Shell ending with Steve Atwater – John Lynch – Ed Reed – Troy Polomolu. No one can make me believe that Lott was that much greater than Atwater that he doesn’t deserve to be in the HOF. :) There are zero safeties in this year list of 15. Donnie Shell made it to the Semi and Finialist spots in 2002 and 04. So we have Safety and Nose Tackle as red headed step children of the HOF voters. Shame on them!
You hit “safety problem” right on the head. I think Ed Reed and Troy (if he plays another 4 seasons to pad the stats, but there is no sign of him slowing down, so I will assume he will make more Pro Bowls and more importantly IMO, All Pros) will make canton. I will go out on a limp and say Ed is a first ballot and Troy is certainly heading towards it. Time will tell.
I too support Donnie Shell. I believe I wrote a post about him. He has the stats. Of course his resume isn’t as impressive as say, Mean Joe Greene, or Jack Lambert or Jack Ham. But it is worthy.
Thought I’d weigh in on a few recent posts:
Big Ben – If he wins a 3rd Super Bowl, he’s pretty much a lock for the Hall of Fame. If Jim Plunkett can continuously get onto the preliminary nomination list based only on 2 Super Bowl victories, Roethlisberger shouldn’t have a problem getting in, since he’s also had some regular season success.
Jim Plunkett – I never saw him play so I don’t have any qualitative analysis on his career, but taking a look at his stats…this guy doesn’t even look like he was a league average QB. His candidacy starts and ends with a nice comeback story and 2 Super Bowl victories. I understand that Super Bowl victories for a QB are often at least half the basis of their candidacy but come on…this guy was brutal! He played 15 seasons in which he produced a 72-72 record, 2 2,500 yard seasons, 1 season of 20 TD’s, 4 seasons where he threw more TD’s than INT’s, a 52.5 completion %, 3 good playoff games (lucky for him 2 of those were in the Super Bowl and the other was the 1980 AFC Championship) and of course ZERO Pro Bowls.
Even during his best years with the Raiders, he only started the majority of the games for them in 3 of his 8 seasons there because he kept losing his starting job. He basically went from being a decent QB on a bad Patriots team to being a slightly better QB on the best AFC team of the 80’s. I’m sorry, but 2 rings with a stacked team, a Super Bowl MVP Award and a Comeback Player of the Year Award can’t overcome an otherwise below average to mediocre career. It’s a joke that him and Doug Williams got onto the preliminary list this year, while Randall Cunningham, Boomer Esiason and Rich Gannon did not. If these guys keep getting nominated then where’s the love for Mark Rypien?
Troy Vincent – I thought he was amazing when he was on the great Philly defenses of the early 2000’s, but looking back on his career he had a very good one but not a Hall of Fame one. I don’t think even the Senior’s Committee will consider him.
Safeties – I agree with a lot of what Tony P said on the Safety issue. If Hanburger gets in this year, I think personally think that Johnny Robinson is the biggest Senior’s omission on the defensive side of the ball. Cliff Harris and to a lesser extent Jake Scott would both make great additions as well. Donnie Shell and especially Steve Atwater deserve a lot more recognition than they get. I’m hoping that both end up on the semi-finalist list next year, as there will be some openings with a weak first-year class and Lester Hayes/Ray Guy moving to the Senior’s pool. Shell will be in his last year of modern-era eligibility, so I’m really hoping he gets a last-minute push.
As for not yet eligible safeties, John Lynch in my mind will (and should) have a hard time getting in. If Atwater can’t make the semi-finalist list, then Lynch and his undeserved 9 Pro Bowls can wait too. I think Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu should be 1st ballot inductees. Reed is quite simply one of the best ball-hawking DB’s ever. The only guy I have seen in my lifetime that’s comparable is Rod Woodson. Polamalu is the best player on an excellent Steelers defense. When he misses games, the defense takes a couple of steps back. He’s been one of the most unique players of our generation as well. I’ve never seen a guy fly around the field on a consistent basis like he does.
I think that Brian Dawkins and Darren Sharper deserve consideration as well as they both have parts of their resumes that really stand out (4 1st Team All-Pros for Dawkins, 63 INT’s and a massive amount of INT return yardage for Sharper). These guys might have to wait for the Senior’s pool though.
Also, with a little over week to go before the inductees get announced, here is where I’d currently rank the finalists on their likelihood of getting in. I’ll emphasize that this has no bearing on my opinions of worthiness, it’s simply based on past voting patterns/results, articles I’ve read and comments on this site:
1. Deion Sanders
2. Marshall Faulk
3. Chris Hanburger
4. Ed Sabol
5. Dermontti Dawson
6. Les Richter
7. Cris Carter
8. Andre Reed
9. Cortez Kennedy
10. Shannon Sharpe
11. Richard Dent
12. Willie Roaf
13. Tim Brown
14. Chris Doleman
15. Charles Haley
16. Curtis Martin
17. Jerome Bettis
BSLO I have two big problems
1. why put faulk above bettis and martin
2. Why put dent doleman haley tim brown cris carter so low
Good questions Robert:
1) Aside from rushing yards, Martin and Bettis don’t really have any advantage over Faulk. Faulk leads those guys in Pro Bowls, 1st Team All-Pro’s, Postseason Awards (he’s won multiple Offensive Player of the Year Awards and an MVP Award), TD’s and yards from scrimmage. He also has a Super Bowl ring as a full-time player (unlike Bettis) and was the best player on arguably the greatest offense of all-time. It’s nothing against Bettis and Martin as they both could be 1st ballot inductees in other years, but they are simply a step below Faulk, who I consider to be one of the best RB’s of all-time. The reason they are at the bottom is that I think Faulk fully blocks them from getting in this year.
2) Again, I’m going to emphasize that this is not how I would rank the worthiness of these guys, it’s based on what I think their likelihood of getting in this year is.
Based on that, Doleman is a first-time finalist and it’s difficult though not impossible (see Rickey Jackson last year) to jump over a bunch of candidates who have consistently received more votes than you year after year.
Dent has been a final 10 player for at least 4 years running now and consistently falls short, so I think 11th (or 9th out of the modern-era candidates) is appropriate.
Tim Brown and Charles Haley were eliminated in the cutdown from 15 to 10 last year. I don’t see anything that really builds Tim Brown’s case this year as he still appears to be 3rd in line behind Carter and Reed. Haley might get a boost from Rickey Jackson getting in, but I feel like he’s behind Dent and could get leapfrogged by Chris Doleman who had a more consistent career.
As for Carter, I think he, Reed and Brown steal votes from each other so it’s hard to say he has a fantastic chance this year when he finished behind Andre Reed last year in the voting. I’d like to see him get in and feel like he has the best candidacy argument, so that’s why i put him slightly ahead of Reed.
Remember that Kennedy, Reed, Sharpe, Dawson and Dent were the guys who made it to the final 10 last year but didn’t get in, so they appear to have the best chance at getting over the hump this year.
We’ve revisted the HOF order of RB’s and WR’s so often it could make my head spin. LOL
BSLO must not be a Steelers fan with the cheapshot on Bettis being a PT player the year of the SB. There must be a lot of half Rings out there for guys that got them when they were out of their prime. LOL. Does that mean Bob Greise is only a one and a half SB QB because he missed 10 regular season games and one and a half playoff game during the 72 Dolphins season? Just giving you a bit of a hard time but I never heard anyone discredited like that. If you’re a RB and you get a you’re just plain lucky. It doesn’t matter if you’re Faulk or not. Some pretty good ones like Sayers, Campbell, Dickerson and A.D. to name a few would agree.
Also I could argue that Issac Bruce was the best player of the “Greatest Show on Turf” and was the key reason the show got rolling. He was “Moss” like with ability to stretch the field and get open deep. A lot of peple forget about him because he didn’t do it flashy like Holt and Faulk. He was a hell of a Fantasy player for me too. :) Of course as Holt progressed he was able to take advantage of the attention Bruce received and with the best check down back probaly ever in Marshall Faulk there was no stopping them. Warner was pretty good too. It’s a damn shame New England won the second SB. The Rams were clearly the best team in football.
For the record in their first SB Faulk was just average at best for him with only 17 yds on 10 carries and 90yds on 6 catches. To me comparing Faulk to Bettis is like comparing a cheetah to a gorilla. LOL!! Both were great in their way but brought something totally different to the table.
How about you compare the last season’s of each ones careers? I’ll bet Faulk would of loved being on a SB winner his last year as a pt player. LOL!!
BSLO
You Answered my questions right on the dot thats the answers i exactly were looking for
Ill throw in this thought for the readers how many of the finalists who do not make it in this year will be elected in 2012
My Class of 2011
Cris Carter
Chris Doleman
Dermontti Dawson
Marshall Faulk
Charles Haley
Chris Hanburger
Curtis Martin
Les Richter
Thoughts on my class any additions or subtractions
only problem with faulk is that he put up most of his numbers when he was the greatest show on turf would u agree or disagree with that
would they put roaf in the hof before dawson i dont know but i think dawson will go in this year
Ewing your class of 2011 has 8, only a max of 7 can be elected (with two seniors) and you are missing the sure bet of Deion Sanders as a 1st ballot selection.
Also four on defense and two RBs is way too much. And Doleman is a finalist for the first time, I do not see his election above several players who are more deserving and been on the finalist ballot longer.
BSLO’s list a few posts earlier with the rankings is a pretty good one, I would only add a few changes in the order:
1. Deion Sanders
2. Marshall Faulk
3. Chris Hanburger
4. Dermontti Dawson
5. Ed Sabol
6. Les Richter
7. Cris Carter
8. Shannon Sharpe
9. Richard Dent
10. Andre Reed
11. Cortez Kennedy
12. Charles Haley
13. Curtis Martin
14. Jerome Bettis
15. Willie Roaf
16. Tim Brown
17. Chris Doleman
Dave Goldberg, one of the 44 voters, said this week ”this may be the best class — or close to it — that I’ve seen in my nearly two decades of voting, and there are people on the final list that I will be very unhappy about leaving to wait another year.”
Looking at the 5 spots available for the modern era candidates, Deion and Faulk are the obvious choices for two of them leaving just 3 places from 13 names. You can see where Goldberg is coming from with such a tough choice and it will even tougher with support gathering pace to elect Sabol, very much deserved it would be too.
The HOF commitee have made an effort towards more balanced classes in recent years so for the remaining two spots I think there will be one offensive and one defensive player. Kennedy and Dent made the last 10 in 2010 and one of them should hear his name called this time. Haley and Doleman may not get past the first cut with Haley having a better chance of making progression. That leaves one final place for an offensive player if you assume Sabol will get elected.
Without Sabol I would have predicted they elect an OL (Dawson) and one of the receivers to round out the Class with Deion, Faulk and Cortez/Dent. Now we have a situation where Dawson may have to compete for that last spot with Carter/Reed/Brown and Sharpe, who some voters may consider grouping with the WRs. Its very tough but I think they will try to start clearing the backlog of receivers which means leaving Dawson to wait another year, which like Goldberg I would hate to see.
2011:
Deion
Faulk
Sabol
Cortez/Dent
Carter (personal choice)
Hanburger
Richter
2012:
Dawson
Sharpe
Cortez/Dent (whoever is left after the Class of 2011)
Brown/Reed (Reed seems to have more support)
A surprise maybe?
Two seniors
Tony P, I’m not an anti-Steelers fan. They were one of my favourite teams when I was younger and I’d be happy to see them win another Super Bowl on Sunday.
My point about Bettis winning a Super Bowl as a Part-Time player isn’t a shot at him, but it is stating a fact. Faulk was the offensive player of the year when the Rams won the Super Bowl and Bettis was a declining part-time player.
I’m not saying that Bettis earned or deserved the ring less, but Faulk obviously had a bigger hand in his team getting there. I agree that Faulk didn’t have the greatest Super Bowl game, but I think Faulk and Bettis have very similar post-season profiles. They’ve both had some outstanding games and some big clunkers…in fact Bettis probably has a bit of an advantage there. I think Bettis should make the Hall of Fame, and if he had been eligible next year he might have made it on the first ballot. That said though, Faulk is in my opinion a step above Bettis and Martin. Personally, I think Martin has the advantage over Bettis because he had a more consistent career but I don’t have a really strong opinion either way on which of those two should get in first.
You do make a great point about Bettis and Faulk being different backs, and that’s totally true. They both had very different styles and in the end both helped their teams win in their own way on a consistent basis. Faulk had an advantage by being on the Greatest Show on Turf Teams, but Bettis also benefitted from being in a run-first offense for the majority of his career as well.
And yes obviously when it comes to running backs, the best ones aren’t necessarily on Super Bowl teams. Sanders, Sayers, Campbell, Simpson, etc. are definitely Hall of Fame backs regardless of their postseason success. When you’re faced with 3 backs though that have fairly similar profiles (Faulk, Martin, Bettis), a ring can often put one over the other. In the end, it’ll probably put Bettis in the HOF ahead of Martin.
No hard feelings though, I didn’t mean to offend :)
Roaf with 6/11 and two decade teams would seem to fit well into boknows34’s 2012 projection. Watch the vote next Saturday as the first 5 eliminated (the vote from 15 to 10) will most certainly be in the 15 finalists in 2012 and the next 5 elimated (the vote from 10 to 5) may very well fill out the class of 2012 which has no strong 1st ballot players.
I am still thinkig Dawson gets in this year instead of Cortez/Dent as this class will most certainly already have 3 defensive players in Sanders, Hanburger and Richter.
I think that boknows34 and Paul are pretty bang on with their projections for this year and next. I really like Paul’s point about the Senior’s candidates both being defensive players. As much as I want to see one of the 4 front seven players (Kennedy, Dent, Haley or Doleman) make it in this year, I think that if both senior candidates get in, we’ll see Faulk, Sanders, Sabol, Dawson and a receiver (I’d prefer Carter as well).
With regards to Dawson, I might be overthinking the mindset of the voters a bit, but I really think/hope they realize that Dawson will have a difficult time time getting in if he doesn’t get in this year or in 2012. There are simply too many good lineman coming up in the next few years to let him wait any longer. Personally, I think that that’s why Russ Grimm was put in last year.
For 2012, I think that we’ll see another receiver get in (Hopefully Reed because his stats will only look worse as the years go by), plus either Roaf/Dawson, 2 defensive players (I’ll say Kennedy and Dent, though I could see any of Haley, Doleman or Greene making it as a surprise entry) and Bill Parcells. If the voters decide against Parcells, I’ll say Sharpe gets in instead.
As much as Sharpe, Bettis and Martin deserve induction, I think they’ll have to wait a couple of years because there simply isn’t as much of a rush to get them in. Sharpe won’t face any competition from a tight end until Tony Gonzalez retires and Martin and Bettis probably won’t face any RB competition for the next 10 or so years aside from the already eligible Roger Craig/Terrell Davis, LT and maybe Edgerrin James. There likely won’t be another HOF-caliber back that retires for another 5 years when guys like Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson might be winding down. With that said, I’d rather that Carter/Reed/Brown get inducted over the next 3 years to avoid them getting into competition with guys like Harrison/Bruce/Holt/Moss/Owens/Ward, etc. As far as I’m concerned, as long as the worthy guys don’t get passed over to the point that they end up in the Senior’s pool, I don’t really care what order they get in.
I agree that this year is the strongest finalist list I’ve seen since I’ve been following the yearly elections. I personally wouldn’t be disappointed if any of the 15 finalists got inducted. I can’t wait to see the announcement on Saturday night!
As it is very difficult for any coach to get in as a first ballot candidate, I do not believe Parcells will be inducted in 2012, some voters are most certainly still miffed at what happened last time he was a finalist (he returned to coaching and had to be removed from the ballot) plus in most voters minds he may still go back to coach as he has not stated such, plus he has done so at least two other previous times. Also I am not so sure his record is rewarding of a first ballot election. I could see Parcells waiting another 3 to 5 years for election.
As for those in the list of 15 this year I would say all will someday be elected, so the ten left out this year will certainly have good chances in coming years especially considering that 2012 and 2014 look to be fairly week with 1st time candidates.
Another note is that with the candidates this year, and those first time candidates coming in the next few years 2012 to 2015, that no DBs or QBs will receive serious consideration. I suppose that Kurt Warner in 2015 could be in the discussion, but given his mixed up and down career although election may happen for him someday I can see it taking a number of elections before he gets in.
In terms of DBs and other QBs we may have to wait until current players begin to begin to retire starting with Farve, who could be next of that group in but not until 2016! Unless a senior candidate QB is selected, it could be ten years between the election of a QB (since Aikman and Moon in 2006), longest such streak in HOF election history.
Paul
Good point on Hanburger and Richter being defensive players. I was focusing too much on balancing out the class among the modern era candidates only. I’d certainly be in favour of swapping Cortez/Dent this year for Dawson, then having Roaf and Cortez/Dent for 2012.
That would leave 3 offensive (Faulk, Dawson, Carter/WR/TE), 3 defensive (Deion, Hanburger, Richter) and Ed Sabol for a very well balanced 2011 class.
I think if you are part of a team that has won at least 2 super bowls, you should get more love. Steelers are going for there 3rd Super Bowl Win in the last 6 years. I will list players who are going for there 3rd with The Steel Curtain that have or will have legitimate cases:
QB:Ben Roethlisberger
WR: Hines Ward
NT: Casey Hampton
LB: James Harrison
LB: James Farrior. His Pro Bowls and All Pros don’t show it, but he has been a good Linebacker for years.
S: Troy Polamalu
Roethlisberger and Polamalu will end up being the HOFers from these Steelers teams. Hampton and Farrior have no chance though. Hines Ward has a more than decent case but may get caught up in a huge backlog at WR with Harrison, Moss, TO, Bruce and Holt. James Harrison was such a late developer I think his chances are slim right now. Harrison’s rookie season was 2002 but he didn’t become a full-time starter until 2007 when he was 29 years old. Harrison though has had 4 tremendous seasons with 2 1st team and 2 2nd team All-Pros and a DPOTY award in 2008. Its just that I’m not sure how long he’ll maintain that level until old father time catches up on him and whether he’ll have enough elite seasons when that time eventually comes. One former Steeler from their 2005 championship that should make Canton is Alan Faneca. Jerome Bettis is of course another from 2005 who is a finalist this year in his first season of eligibilty.
I think Antonio Gates is a Hall of Fame lock. Not saying he is a first ballot, but his stats as a TE are astonishing. 3/7/00s is solid. Will play about 3 more years or so. His stats are: 529 receptions, 7,005 receiving yards, and 69 TD’s. He has a good case.
Hine Ward is a hall of famer. Maybe his pro bowls and APs, or lack there isn’t there, but it’s the intangibles that makes him, him. He is great great blocker, he has 927 receptions, with a Super Bowl MVP. He has 2 rings, going for number 3. But players like Torry Holt, who has less TD’s, are getting more credit. Give credit when credit is due. I would put Ward ahead of Bruce and Holt. Of course Alan Faneca is a Hall of Famer. 6/9/00s speaks for itself. But not putting in Ward would be a big snub.
I’d have to agree 100% with what boknows34 said about the Steelers players getting into the hall.
I have to disagree a bit with your take on Ward Brad. Hines Ward to me is a louder version of Art Monk. Both had a long, consistent careers as essentially possession receivers. Both guys played on consistently great teams where they were the #1 receiver, but rarely ever were someone who you had to gameplan against. Both probably benefited from playing with solid running games and good #2 receivers for most of their career as well. Like Ward, Monk also had a reputation as a good blocker and both had a short stretch where they made a handful of Pro Bowls. Ward obviously has an advanatge of being a Super Bowl MVP, but Monk also was someone who retired as the all-time leading receiver. They both have, as of now, 2 rings and 3 SB appearances.
What I think really hurts Ward’s case, and in my opinion makes him just short of a Hall of Famer, is a lack of a domination at his position. As much as Ward has consistently been lauded as one of the best receivers of his generation, he never really had 1 dominant year. He made 4 Pro Bowls, but his 1st and last ones were hardly worthy when you look at them on paper (barely over a 1,000 yards, 4 TD’s, about 12 yards a catch). He was only named a 2nd team all-pro by ANY publication 3 times.
For all of the criticism out there regarding Art Monk’s election, even he had a year (1984) where he was dominant. Monk also made the 80’s all-decade team. Ward’s counting stats are obviously good, but I think they result more from him staying healthy and being a consistent starter for several years (think Derrick Mason).
You can make the case that Ward’s contemporaries like Owens, Moss, Holt, Bruce, Harrison, Jimmy Smith and Rod Smith were game-breakers when they played. I don’t think you can put Ward in that category.
Ward has a reputation as a good teammate and a guy with good intangibles, but to me that should make shouldn’t put you over the top when it comes to the Hall of Fame. He will probably get in eventually, maybe after a 10-15 years wait, because the media loves him and how he plays the game.
Actually, Monk has 3 rings now that I think of it…and 4 SB appearances.
On a side note, what do you guys (and girls if there are any on here) think of the HOF announcement being a 90-minute show this year? Apparently they are going to go pretty in-depth into the discussions that were had between the voters regarding certain candidates. They’re going to analyze which candidates generated the most discussion, and what not.
If it ends up being as good as it sounds like it will be, that’ll be a pretty awesome 90-minute show! Is it sad that I’m as excited for this as I am for the Super Bowl?
If the NFL Network HOF show this year is like last year then it will be 20-30 minutes of discussions of the candidates and their merits( by the likes of Rich Eisen) – no insight as to the actual vote and committee members – followed by the announcement, and then 60 minutes of Q/A with the players elected. I would not be too hopeful about any of the “in the room with the voters” nuggets. Of item of note is that both Deion and Faulk currently work with the NFL network which should make for some interesting TV.
If Lynn Swan’s in with 336 receptions, than I think Hines Ward with 954 receptions get in. I know it took Lynn a long time, but I don’t see Hines waiting a whole lot. I truly don’t. Time will tell.
I’m not saying he’s a first ballot nor a 5th. But, I don’t think he should wait a while.
Side note. My boys Revis Island and Nick Mangold both made there 2nd straight All Pro selection and 3 straight Pro Bowl. In about 5-6 years, we could be saying there Hall of Famers. (D-Brick made his 2nd straight Pro Bowl. Not saying he will be a HOFer, but he is a solid Tackle, could make first team All Pro a several times in his career and have some kind of case).
Are the following HOFers when there careers are over:
Shane Lechler
Devin Hester
Jason Witten
Charles Woodson
Demarcus Ware
Brian Urlacher
Julius Peppers
Dwight Freeney
Antonio Gates
Lance Briggs
I might be reading too much into this but after Rickey Jackson and the Saints last year, does the fact Pittsburgh are in the Super Bowl – and the Class of 2011 will be at the coin toss – improve the chances of a Steeler being elected on Saturday? If thats the case I hope its Dawson (who should be elected regardless) over media darling Bettis.
Boknows34:
I don’t think you are reading too much into Rickey Jackson. He was certainly deserving (one of my favorites during his career), but his candidacy was absolutely helped by the Saints playing in the Super Bowl. Just as Monk’s candidacy was probably put over the top by Darrell Green being on the ballot for the same year. The electors have started looking for “themes.” With that said, it is very difficult to draw any conclusions from this fact. Presumably it helps Dawson and Bettis, but they might go with another theme.
Just a few snippets from the profootballhof website:
From 1970-2010 there have been 109 men who have been a Pro Football Hall of Fame Finalist in their first year of their eligibility. Of that sum, only 67 have been elected in that year. That’s a percentage of 61. A majority percentage, but certainly does not indicate that a first-year eligible finalist is a “shoo-in” for the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
The five men who are first-year eligible finalists in 2011 are now collectively tied for most in Pro Football Hall of Fame history. The other group of finalists that included five nominees in their first year of eligibility occurred in 1993, 1990, and 1971.
From 1970, the first year our selection process included the naming of finalists, through 2010, a total of 224 men have been finalists for the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Of that total, 202 eventually got the call to come to Canton, Ohio. That’s a figure of 83 percent of all finalists who have eventually earned election to the Hall of Fame.
continued….
The record for the most first-year eligible finalists to earn election into the Hall of Fame in a single class is three. That’s happened eight times 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1987, 1990, 1991, 1993, and 2006.
And, just once in HOF history has a group of finalists not included a first-year eligible candidate (1976).
** Class of 2013 has a chance to break that record of three with Michael Strahan, Jonathan Ogden, Larry Allen, Warren Sapp and Morten Andersen all first-year eligible. I’d say the first 4 have a great chance with Morten eventually becoming the 2nd full-time kicker to be elected.
About 8 hrs until the “big show” and announcement. Watch carefully for the first announcement of the vote to reduce candidates from 15 to 10, that will give clues to what this class may look like depending on who has been eliminated. Then the critical second vote from 10 to 5 as those not in the finalist list of 5 this year will mostly certainly make up the majority of class of 2012 (with no strong first time candidates in 2012). Funny to think that as I post here these decisions and votes are actually already underway.
Class of 2011: Dent, Faulk, Hanburger, Richter, Sabol, Sanders, Sharpe
Let the debate begin!
Looks like Sharpe resulted in pushing aside the 3 big WRs and Dent/Sabol beat out Dawson/Kennedy/Roaf
first round eliminations: Bettis, Brown, Carter, Doleman, Haley
second round eliminations: Dawson, Kennedy, Martin, Reed, Roaf
my observation is these groupings look about right as I would also have put the 10-6 players (Dawson, Kennedy, Martin, Reed, and Roaf) above the other five, and would give those players the best chances for the class of 2012 which has only Will Shields as a strong 1st year candidate.
Guys, we will get a post up a little later tonight about this year’s class–and undoubtedly will get one up tonight or tomorrow looking forward to 2012 as well.
I think the 10 who did not get selected today will end up filling up the classes of 2012-2014. I do not see any of them dropping off the list of finalists over the next few years given how many voters said this was the deepest class ever and all 15 are deserving HOFers.
The likely number of serious contenders as finalists in the next three years is not that deep with Shields (2012), Allen (2013), Strahan (2013), Ogden (2013), Sapp (2013), Brooks (2014) and Harrison (2014). Some of those may get in as 1st year selections and others enter as finalists during those three years, but I still give the other 10 finalists this year great chances over the next three years.
I have always though that 2011 would sort out a few issues (which it did by electing Dent and Sharpe) and set up the 2012 election and candidates for 2013 and 2014. I would say that the group of finalists for the class of 2012 will likely consist of Dawson, Kennedy, Martin, Reed and Roaf who all may get elected unless a surprise (like Sabol this year) appears on the 15 finalist list next year.
I think the room is there for the 10 not elected today to get in from 2012-2014 as I do not see many first time selections in those years, the players I just listed for 2012-2014 will all get in the HOF but as to first time selections 2012 will have none, 2013 perhaps one or two, and 2014 one. The number of OL, WR and DL from 2011 and 2012-2014 will have to be sorted out and that competition will make it harder for any first time selections. For example Dawson and Roaf take votes from Shield in 2012 and Doleman, Kennedy and Haley (of those not elected in 2012) will take votes from possible first time elections of Strahan and Sapp. Those OL and DL are so closely matched none rising to the level of a first time selection.
Paul:
2013 is looking very strong and it would not surprise me if we had at least 3 1st time candidates. Ogden, Strahan and Allen were all in the Top 100 from the recent NFL Network Series of Greatest Players Ever and Sapp must have been pretty close too as his name was on their ballot among the current non HOFers. Nobody else from the unelected 2011 finalists or 2012 1st time candidates managed to crack that Top 100. While we can’t strictly go by that Top 100 I believe many if not most of the 44 HOF voters were also selectors on that series.
I agree with you that the favourites for the Class of 2012 will be the 5 you also mentioned that made the first cut yesterday. Dawson, Reed and Kennedy also made the cut from 15 to 10 last year while 1st timers Roaf and Martin are making quick progress already. Big Tez is the only defensive player among that 5 and as the recent trend has been for balanced classes I’d say his chances are excellent for 2012. Assuming Shields makes the last 15 next year there should be at least 3 OL, 3 WR, 3 DL and 2 RBs, so expect 2 players from one position and one from the other 3.
My predictions from Jan 30th:
2011:
Deion – yes
Faulk – yes
Sabol – yes
Cortez/Dent – they went for a DL as I thought with Dent being the choice.
Carter (personal choice) – missed out to Sharpe
Hanburger – yes
Richter – yes
2012:
Dawson – looking very strong for next year
Sharpe – got in 2011
Cortez/Dent (whoever is left after the Class of 2011) – Dent got in so Cortez it is for 2012
Brown/Reed (Reed seems to have more support) – Reed definitely has more support over the other 2 WRs
A surprise maybe?
Two seniors
boknows34 a number of those top 100 players were not 1st year elections to the HOF, I can see perhaps two 1st time players (Ogden and Strahan) being elected in 2013, but not 3 which simply does not happen. Also remember that the 2013 finalists will include multiple DL and OL players which, like the current WRs, may split votes among the voters. And it is really hard for OL to earn first time selection just look at Randall McDaniel a 9/12 player who had to wait one year. Also I do not believe that writers including HOF voters selected the NFL Network Top 100 players so I would not place much significance on that list as a measure of future voting.
Here are my finalists for 2012 (*elected):
Bettis
Brown
Carter
Doleman
Haley
Dawson*
Kennedy*
Martin*
Reed*
Roaf*
Shields
Barber
Parcells
Tagliabue
Aeneas Williams
(plus two senior candidates, both defense)
Good list Paul but I think Kevin Greene will be a finalist next year instead of Barber.
good point boknows34, my mistake for leaving Greene off.
Curtis “My favorite” Martin should make it next year. Tiki Barber is, IMO, not a Hall of Famer. If you put him in, put in Jamal Lewis, Priest Holmes, and Fred Taylor . And there not HOFers either, no disrespect to all of them. Great careers, but, when compared to a LaDainian Tomlinson or a Curtis Martin.
Nnmadi Asomugha has a good resume so far. 3x pro Bowler, 2 First Team All Pros, 4 total All Pro Teams. He is 29 yes, but he has at least 3 good years left. If he ends up a 3/6, he has a case.