Well, it’s that time of year again. Actually, it’s well past that time of year – we decided to take a little time this year,
before presenting our guesses for the Hall of Fame. But here we finally go…
Andy: Picking Hall of Fame classes in recent years has been a little easier, as there have been at least a few candidates in each class who stood a head taller than their peers. That changes a bit this year, as the voters have put many of those top notch candidates in. Not that there aren’t great players remaining, but there are a lot of guys with similar resumes to consider.
Tony: There are three first-time eligible players who seem like obvious names to, at least, make the final 15 – starting with the only player probably guaranteed a ticket to Canton in 2016 — former Falcons, Jets and Vikings quarterback Brett Favre (what? He played somewhere else?). He held basically every quarterback record there is when he retired, and with three MVP awards and a Super Bowl ring in addition to 11 Pro Bowls and six All-Pros, Favre’s bronze bust was cast before he walked away from the game…even the first time.
The other two seem likely to make the finalist list, but less likely make the final five—Terrell Owens and Alan Faneca. Owens finished his career second in all-time yardage and third in touchdowns, but six Pro Bowls and five first-team All-Pros won’t likely overcome his reputation in year one. And while Faneca was one of the best guards in the game in his time, he isn’t at the same level as Randall McDaniel or Will Shields, who both had to wait to get in.
Andy: Yep, I agree completely on the first-year guys. Favre may have played a year too long, but he was the model of greatness and a gunslinger throughout the years. Not to go all “John Madden” on it, but his personality is missed in today’s game. In some years, Faneca may have had a chance to buck the trend toward making great guards wait, but he’s up against another top-notch OL in Orlando Pace, who many thought should have been inducted last year. That said, I’d be stunned if Faneca didn’t make the list of 15. Owens was a weird dude, but he also set himself apart, often in good ways and too frequently in bad. I agree he doesn’t get enshrined right away, but he’s in the mix.
Tony: Like usual, the final five not selected for the class of 2015—Marvin Harrison, Orlando Pace, Kurt Warner, Tony Dungy and Kevin Greene—likely will make the finalist cut for the class of 2016, so they have to go on our list of 15. The first five finalists eliminated—coaches Jimmy Johnson & Don Coryell, John Lynch, Terrell Davis and Morten Andersen, present a slate of interesting case studies.
For all the hype around Johnson’s Cowboys Super Bowl teams, he only actually coached a total of nine seasons—albeit winning two Super Bowls—with an 80-64 (.556 winning percentage) overall record. For comparison, Dungy only won the one Super Bowl, but coached 13 years, and had a 139-69 record (.668 winning percentage). He also had a long, prosperous assistant coaching career, which Johnson lacks. Coryell coached for 14 years, and finished 111-83-1 (.572 winning percentage), but lacked the Super Bowl success. To be honest, the more I look at all three, I’m not sure any of them really belongs in the Hall, unless they add a category specifically for coaches.
Coryell seems the least likely to still make the finalist list, given how long it’s been since he was in the league.
John Lynch has never truly struck me as a Hall of Fame caliber player—Hall of Very Good for sure, but ultimately he was known as a hitter, more than an all-around player. With Ed Reed & Troy Polamalu coming down the road, I suspect that Lynch will have a very short window before he falls off the finalist radar. Terrell Davis has always been a giant question mark, due to his short career. And fair or not, Morten Andersen is a kicker. Given the history of voting, it seems likely that all 10 of the above will make the Final 15—so who will join them?
Andy: Yep, most years we’d have a pretty strong start with the returning semifinalists who were not selected, but I agree, there are some guys whose momentum might not carry over. I agree that the final five finalists will make the list, so we agree on Harrison, Pace, Warner, Dungy and Greene.
I disagree with you on Lynch – I don’t think he was the strongest safety who is going to be in the mix for the Hall over the next few years, but I do think he was a stud who has as good a claim as most. I think Morten Andersen should eventually make the Hall, but he strikes me as a guy who could be on-again, off-again, as far as the semifinals and finals, at least for a few years.
Voters appear to disagree with me, but I think Johnson, despite the shorter career, has a stronger case than Dungy for Canton. I agree that Coryell is the least likely to make it back to the finals – in fact, I think, right or wrong, momentum for him has peaked and his support will likely start to fade. So I’ll put Lynch in.
I’m 50/50 on Davis. I think he’s a fascinating case study – people make the Gale Sayers argument on him and it’s the right case to make, but Sayers had some special teams contributions Davis didn’t, while Davis had postseason success Sayers didn’t have. His postseason resume of three Pro Bowls and three First Team All Pro awards is almost more impressive in that it was compiled in seven NFL seasons than that of Edgerrin James, who compiled four Pro Bowls but just one All Pro award during his 11 seasons. So we’ll stick with Davis as a finalist.
Tony: That’d put us at 12: Harrison, Pace, Warner, Dungy, Greene, Lynch, Andersen, Davis, Johnson and the three first-year guys, Favre, Owens and Faneca. That leaves three finalist spots. The next best of the first-year eligible types might be Clinton Portis. He was good and he was at times a character, but I don’t see him as a Hall of Famer. Two guys I think are deserving players with Hall of Fame credentials are Torry Holt (7/1) and Kevin Mawae (8/3), both of whom were semifinalists last year. Steve Atwater seems borderline, but he also always seems to come into play.
Andy: I’m definitely on the Mawae bandwagon. And I don’t know what you have against safeties who racked up Pro Bowls – I know the Pro Bowl isn’t what it used to be, but you ragged on Lynch earlier and he went to nine (9/2) and now you’re dissing Atwater, who went to eight (8/2). I definitely think both of those guys warrant finalist status and I wouldn’t be angry if either one was selected for enshrinement. I’m not quite as high on Holt as some, but being a semifinalist in his first year shows he’s got some momentum. I’d consider Edgerrin James, but in the end, I’m fine with giving Holt the nod.
So, this is our combined list of 15 finalists for the Class of 2016:
K Morten Andersen
RB Terrell Davis
WR Marvin Harrison
QB Kurt Warner
T Orlando Pace
LB/DE Kevin Greene
S John Lynch
Coach Tony Dungy
Coach Jimmy Johnson
WR Torry Holt
C Kevin Mawae
S Steve Atwater
QB Brett Favre
WR Terrell Owens
G Alan Faneca
Andy: So who makes the final five? One more challenge this year: Voters often at least seem to want to try to select classes at least semi-balanced between offense and defense. I’m not sure that’s going to happen this year, as it seems to me that the top-echelon players are unbalanced in favor of the offense. Maybe that leaves room for a coach to sneak in? Or maybe voters will get off their backsides and actually vote in a safety before there become so many stars from that position eligible that they’ll cancel each other out even worse than Cris Carter, Tim Brown and Andre Reed did for a few years.
Tony: As I mentioned above, I don’t find Dungy as good a candidate as I used to, but he seems to be on the cusp. The final spot, for me, came down to Harrison and Warner—I am tempted to think that the voters may not want to place two quarterbacks in the same class—but I also don’t see them suddenly reversing course on wide receivers after making Cris Carter and Tim Brown wait so long to get in—especially for Harrison (who had his own issues at the end of his career) or especially Owens.
Andy: I disagree on Harrison. I think he’s a no-brainer this year. I wouldn’t be stunned to see the voters go with Faneca, but overall I lean Pace, so we agree on three. I’m 50/50 on Warner. I don’t have a tremendous problem with him being elected, but I think he’s more borderline than some. The fifth spot is a bit of a mystery to me this year. I think there’s an outside chance that voters don’t end up selecting a full class for the first time in awhile or that they go offense-heavy. Or maybe a surprise candidate gets in. I’ll make my case again for the short-timer Cowboys coach Johnson. How ‘bout them Cowboys?
Andy | Tony |
Brett Favre | Brett Favre |
Orlando Pace | Orlando Pace |
Kevin Greene | Kevin Greene |
Marvin Harrison | Tony Dungy |
Jimmy Johnson | Kurt Warner |
What do you think? Vote in our poll and tell us in the comments section where we are wrong and who you think will be selected.
What do you think of the writers' predictions for the 2016 Hall of Fame class?
- Both of them make compelling arguments (48%, 11 Votes)
- These guys are wingnuts - I'll find another blog to read (22%, 5 Votes)
- Andy is right on, Tony is clueless (17%, 4 Votes)
- Tony nailed it, Andy is high (13%, 3 Votes)
Total Voters: 23
My prediction is: Dungy, Favre, Greene, Harrison, Pace. The would be 4 of the 5 finalists not elected in 2015, plus the one sure bet of the 1st time eligible Favre. Since Dungy made the final 10 last year over Johnson (and Dungy has been a finalists longer) I see his election before Johnson. And I think voters will still struggle with Warner, plus with QB Favre already going to be elected, the voters will not see the need to select another QB who many still have questions about his qualifications. Regardless both Johnson and Warner will remain the best at their positions for elections 2017 and beyond with both getting elected sooner rather than later.
Agreed with Paul on his five choices and his analysis. I think Kurt Warner waits another year, then is elected in 2017. Assuming John Lynch and Morton Andersen are finalists again, they may join Warner along with first-timer LaDanian Tomlinson and maybe a wild card like Don Coryell.
I could easily see Harrison making it over Warner–I just don’t know if the voters will put Harrison in more quickly than they put Carter or Brown in.
Bigger WR question coming might be whether or not Randy Moss warrants a first year induction…
Do you guys have a prediction of senior candidates for 2016 as well?
is senior nominees a separate topic
Predicting Senior Nominees is a real crap shoot, toss15 names in the air and any 2 of them will be selected. I have yet to see anyone here or on other blogs accurately predict what a committee of five people will do in any given year, especially since the members of that selection committee rotate each year and we never seen a semi-finalist or finalist list to have any idea which individuals are under consideration and may be making traction towards election. Sure we all can have our preferences, but no way to know who the committee will select.
Brett Favre is a lock. Marvin Harrison sure looks to be the best player who has waited for at least 3 years. Very glaring to me. Kevin Greene deserves it on defensive side. He has great career numbers, APs/PBs/AD is definitely a good “booster”. Not many pass rushers on the ballot that are as good. I am picking: Favre, Harrison, Greene, Dungy, and possibly Kurt Warner. We have had classes with multiple QBs.
Forgeting Pace – an all decade team member??
Orlando Pace yes sorry. I meant him.
When the time comes to discuss Seniors, there’s a really interesting website describing several of the major candidates via film study, with detailed analysis and overall grading. It’s hosted by Pfraforum regular Ken Crippen who with Matt Reaser and Nick Webster have done the analysis. Some interesting results as well as a few surprises. The players who have graded highest are Johnny Robinson (8.2) and Al Wistert (8.0), the lowest Dick Stanfel, Bruno Banducci, Pat Fischer, and Dick Schafrath (7.5). Surprisingly high scores go to folks like Winston Hill, Jim Ray Smith, and Lou Rymkus (7.9) and Bob Skoronski (7.8) scoring the same as Jerry Kramer. Doing a search under “Ken Crippen historic scouting reports” will show the site, where reports are ongoingly added.
The problem I have with those sites is the are still very subjective and still really opinions hidden behind a rating plus how to compare close ratings of players from different positions and eras. Still just an opinion.
In that case my top 4 would be wistert robinson howley schafrath. Thoughts
True, there’s always a level of subjectivity to film study, though I like Crippen’s specificity and detailed description. Sample size is an issue for sure as some rankings come with 5 or fewer games evaluated — not to mention when in their career the evaluated games were played (too early or too late can be an issue). Still, it can be interesting and useful to some degree. For example, their analysis might shed some light on why some HoF voters like Dr. Z were reluctant to vote for Jerry Kramer as he wasn’t the best in pass protection (though he was excellent in pulling as well as blocking for running and screen pass plays).
Robert: I’m more in board with Jim Tyrer than Dick Schafrath, though the latter’s 4/6/none profile is darned good for a non-HoF Senior OT. FWIW, Winston Hill’s is 1/8/allAFL and George Kunz ‘s profile is similar. Bob Skoronski would need to have a “Ray Nitschke exception” to leapfrog over these folks with a 0/1/none profile.
Kunz’s profile is 3/8/none.
after some research you are right bachs lunch tyrer would be a better option kunz is an interesting one
Wondering oif the chance for 1950s and earlier has passed by? Not so sure any of those names listed in recent posts are any better than the deserving from the 1960s 1970s and 1980s, also senior candidates waiting for election. For example:
RG – Jerry Kramer 5/3/60’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015)
G – Bob Kuechenberg 2/6/70s-80s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)
LT – Jim Tyrer 6/9/60-70’s (finalist 2012)
WR – Cliff Branch 4/4 – 70s-80s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015)
DL Joe Klecko 2/4 (finalist, 2015)
LB – Maxie Baughan 2/9/60’s (finalist 2012, 2014)
LB – Chuck Howley 5/6/60’s-70’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015)
LB- Mike Curtis 2/4/60s-70s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015)
LB- Randy Gradishar 5/7 (finalist, 2015)
LB Robert Brazile 5/7/70s(finalist, 2015)
CB/S – Eddie Meador 2/6/60’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015)
S – Johnny Robinson 6/7/60’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015)
FS – Cliff Harris 3/6/70’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)
I think all the folks Paul mentions are good Senior candidates with the exception of Curtis, maybe Kooch and Klecko. But there are several pre-60s players with equally strong arguments such as:
Lavvie Dilweg (6/20s) — E
Verne Lewellen (4/none) — B
Duke Slater (3/none) — L
Ox Emerson (6/30s) — L
Riley Matheson (6/none) — L
Al Wistert (6/1/40s) — L
Mac Speedie (6/2/40s) — E
Bill Howton (3/4/none) — E
Billy Wilson 2/6/none) — E
Dick Stanfel (5/5/50s) — G
Dick Barwegen (5/4/50s) — G
Duane Putnam (5/5/none) — G
Gene Brito (4/5/none) — DE
Bobby Dillon (5/4/none) — DB
Just too many good candidates.
That’s why the number of senior nominees need to be increased
I think two a year was fine, and three every two years although not idea is better then the one per year it was for the first few decades of election. Increasing to 3 or 4 a year may get more in sooner but I am not so sure that having potentially 9-10 HOFers each year is really that good of an idea. And I support the effort to increase more of the contributors. At some point something has to give before the annual number gets to out of hand and risk watering down the HOF. I think it is quickly getting harder, and perhaps impossible to elect some of those pre 1950s candidates especially those with weaker profiles: 2 or less All Pro selections and no all decade team (Lewellen, Matheson, Wilson) since no current voter saw them player, they have no fellow players to advocate for them, and film study or any form of analysis is limited or in most cases nonexistent.
Of the pre-60s players mentioned, Speedie, Stanfel, Barwegen, and arguably Brito have shorter careers which may hamper their chances (the first two were turned down as Senior nominees in past). Wilson’s all-pro honors may be a little thinner, but 6 pro bowls is a good bit for a WR type. And I’m inclined to give Slater more “credit” since he may have gotten short shrift in honors because of his color (the 20s-30s were not exactly a golden age for blacks, in the NFL or out of it).
And given the deep pool of senior candidates, I would be really surpised if the committee nominates anyone who has been turned down before – including Kramer. Just seems like if the aim is to get someone successfully elected then make the case for the best candidate and not risk with one already not elected in past attempt. And I really do think that as each year passed, and even more players are added to the seniors pool, chance for pre 1960s candidates is rapidly passing away as they simply is no one to advocate for them compared to more recent players who voters have seen or know about and many more supporters pushing for their elections.
Claude Humphrey was rejected as a Senior about 6-7 years ago and was elected soon after. I think Bob Hayes also took a similar path so there’s still hope yet for Kramer.
We are now seeing the Seniors Pool dip into the 90s. However the Committee have done a solid job in recent years so I’m not sure there’ll be many candidates from that decade who will have a serious chance of nomination. Perhaps some of the safeties and eventually Terrell Davis, but other than that there’s really not that many that stand out. In turn this means the committee can really concentrate on reducing the backlog from the 60s, 70s and 80s.
Eventually I also believe they’ll merge the Seniors and Contributors categories.
Yes committee has nominated a few players for a second chance – who ended up elected – just that I think the quality of the seniors pool is now getting so deep that many more deserving players deserve a first chance in front of the voters, rather than 2nd chances for others.
Jerry Kramer is like Roger Maris in MLB.
Past over every time despite deserving to be inducted.
Sorry to report, Roger Maris does not have any sort of HoF argument. We have useful stats for baseball players, and his career WAR of 38.2, 127 OPS-plus, and 5847 plate appearances is most similar to RFs like Tim Salmon (40.5, 128, 7039), David Justice (40.5, 129, 6602), Babe Herman (40.3, 141, 6228), and Kirk Gibson (38.3, 123, 6655) — none of whom have any sort of HoF case. Maris had only two big HoF-level years (1960-1961) in an otherwise only good career well-shortened by injury. His HoF snub is no mystery, while Jerry Kramer’s is harder to explain.
While I haven’t followed baseball since the 1994 strike, I don’t think there is any comparison between Roger Maris and Jerry Kramer. While Roger had an injury plagued career, he had only had 2 hall of fame seasons like Bachslunch mentioned and was not mentioned in any all time team unlike Jerry Kramer.
Jerry Kramer was for the NFL’s 50th anniversary team and was a 5 first team all pro guard. That meant he was the best at his position for 5 seasons. Usually when a NFL Player has that many first all pro teams, that player wouldn’t be waiting 47 seasons after his last down in the league to be inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
Through the years, I read rumors that Kramer not being in the Hall of Fame was caused by politics by the Voters and the excuse of there was enough Green Bay Packers from the Vince Lombardi era got inducted into the hall of fame besides guards having a hard time to get into the Hall of Fame. The politics I referred to is what I read in the past about some voters not liking liking the fact Kramer had a best seller book in 1968 called Instant Replay.
I think the Seniors Committee selecting – and then the full Committee electing – Green Bay LB Dave Robinson in 2013, pretty much dooms Kramer’s chances for years as how many more 1960s Packers are going to elected, especially with so many other deserving senior candidates still waiting.
Yeah, maybe you guys are right on Maris. Didn’t really look deep into the stats.
I think the odds of Kramer getting selected by the Senior committee are Dave Robinson is being hurt more than the amount of 1960’s in Hall of Fame.
I know the late Gale Gillingham has gotten consideration by the Senior committee for the Hall of Fame and that has hurt Jerry Kramer’s chances since Gale also played the Guard position. Gale got consideration by people like Peter King. Gale not in inducted before the Senior Committee was caused by his career was short and his prime happened during the early part of the darkage of the Packers that happened after Vince stepped down.
Gale had a great career shorten by injury that could be pointed to Dan Devine making the dumb move of having an All pro guard to be a defensive tackle. Gale in 1972 was lost 2 games into the regular season during that experiment. What made the move dumb is putting your best offensive lineman into a defensive tackle and is possible that the knee injury could have been avoided.
While Gale played his first 2 seasons under Vince Lombardi, Gale’s prime happened after Vince Stepped down as Head Coach. Gale had 5 pro bowls and made 2 first team all pro teams for the post Vince Lombardi Packers. Gale also had 4 2nd all pro teams as a player.
When the seniors committee nominated Robinson and he was then selected to the HOF, in my view that pretty killed Kramer’s chances for sometime as the voters clearly supported yet another of his teammates over him.
I think for 2016 the seniors committee will go heavy on defense, especially with one from the deep pool of 60s/70s LBs and perhaps a CB or S from the 50s/60s era. Does not look like to date they are starting to consider seniors from the 80s and 90s.
Longtime NFL offensive lineman, coach Dick Stanfel dies at 87
Long before he was an assistant coach on one of the best teams in NFL history, Dick Stanfel was one of the best offensive linemen the game had known.
Via Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune, Stanfel died this week at his home in Illinois at the age of 87.
Stanfel was an All-Decade offensive lineman for the Lions in the 1950s, helping them to two championships. He was also the team’s MVP in 1953, a rare achieve for any guard, especially one who played with players such as Bobby Layne and Doak Walker. He was traded to Washington in 1956.
Don’t mean to be off topic but Justin Houston has a profile of 1/3/possibly 2010s ADT. He is only 26 too. He is coming off a 22 sack season and has increased sack total each of his 4 seasons. He has 5 Passes deflected per season 3x. A pass rushing LB like DeMarcus Ware has done it 2x in his career. How do you guys view his HOF chances based on how his current pace is? I completely understand it’s early and many if not most don’t pain out as HOFers. But, I see him having another 17+ sack season. Definitely doesn’t need it to get in. Can get another 2 APs, 5 PBs,etcs to get in.
Antonio Gates suspended for the first 4 games of the regular season for PED use. Does this hinder his HOF chances? Thoughts?
Brad,
What happened to Antonio Gates wouldn’t affect his HOF chances. The Pro Football Hall of Fame already has NFL Players inducted into the Hall of Fame despite being being suspended for drugs during their playing days. They are Bruce Smith, Lawrence Taylor, and Michael Irvin.
Cris Carter also is in the Hall of Fame Despite the fact his well known drug and alcohol problems with the Eagles.
I don’t consider cocaine, alcohol and drugs of that nature on same level as PEDs. One makes you stronger. The other not so much.
Brad, there is one thing to Consider. The 1963 San Diego Charger team under Sid Gillman used an anabolic steroid called Dianabol. Pro Football Hall of Famer Ron Mix is one of the Players who took them although Lance Alworth didn’t. I know it was legal in 1963, but if Gates isn’t in the Hall of Fame due to Peds, than Ron Mix needs to booted out since Mix claimed the Steroids helped his stamina.
The late Walt Sweeney even said on record that the coaching staff Sid Gillman had would fine the players if they don’t take anabolic steroids. Based on what I read, the coaching staff gave the lineman steroids, but not all positions. That proves if Gates doesn’t get inducted due to Peds than Sid Gillman needs to be kicked out for encouraging his players to take Peds.
The other thing is how many players would have to be booted out of the Pro Football Hall of Fame before the 1980’s due to steroids because I am sure that the 63 Chargers and the Steeler Teams from the 1970’s aren’t the only teams that had players using steroids.
Those steroids aren’t as advanced as drugs are today. And I am still for Antonio Gates, never said I wasn’t. Just wanted to hear other opinions. Baseball has players in who cheated too. But, I do agree with the voters stance via their voting patterns, when it comes to the Sosa’s, Bonds, Clemens, etc.
Gates was not taking anabolic steroids unlike what was more common in NFL in 1960s-80s, still was using a PED and deserving of a suspension but difference to the historical cases is still important to note. Plus Bruce Smith, Irvin, Carter and Taylor were not PED suspensions. At least the HOF cases of Irvin and Carter were likely impacted by their drug use and possible Gates may be as well with a long than expected election, but he is still getting in.
Ken Stabler passed away yesterday. In the articles I have been reading about him, I’ve seen a ton of statistical data that has him as a better QB than Namath, Griese and is very comparable with Bradshaw. I know I have been putting Kenny Anderson ahead of him in my mind for years. I might have to re-think that notion. How about anyone else?
I’m thinking the same billy
Not to sure about Stabler as it appeared to me that he had many detractors among the voters, and now he is in the deep seniors pool which is hard for anyone to get out of. Since I started following the senior candidate voting more closely over the last decade his name comes up on occasion, but not as much as many other deserving candidates, hard to see if he has any support among the senior committee voters. Based on career numbers I suppose one could debate he was “better” than Namath, but Joe had a major role in the history of the NFL in the 1960s (first QB with over 4000 yrd season) as well as his signature SB win. And to me Stabler’s case has always been hurt by the number of HOF QBs from his era and some poor career numbers (more INTs then TDs)
I’ve always been for Ken Stabler for HOF. 2/4/70s isn’t strong, but it hit key accolades for me: All Decade Team and League MVP. I like to see 5-6 Pro bowls at least, but you can have quality years without having either a PB or AP. In 1979, he put up 6th most yards(career high), 4th most completions, 4th highest passer rating, and 4th most TD passes and didn’t get anything for it. Definitively a quality season.
I don’t think Stabler is the Raider with the strongest HOF case who isn’t in – I think the strongest cases are for Lester Hayes and Cliff Branch. But I’d have no issue with Stabler being in – I think the negative TD-to-INT ratio looks bad for him. And he was involved in couple of off field situations with media folks that have likely played against him. But he was definitely a great QB, for at least a chunk of years.
I can listen to Raiders fans when they make cases for those three guys. It’s when they start arguing for Plunkett – who was a great comeback story in the early 80s, but was mostly bad throughout his career – that I start to roll my eyes.
Re Stabler, comparing him to the weakest HoF QBs doesn’t help his case. And his having one title and just pretty good stats puts him in a lot of company among non-HoF guys like Simms, Theismann, Conerly, etc. Ken Anderson however is the only player of his type — top-flight stats but no title — not in (see Tittle, Fouts, Jurgensen, Marino). Have always said let’s get Anderson in first and then consider Stabler.
Re Gates, the PFHoF does not have a character clause, and their voters don’t thus far seem concerned about steroid use. I don’t have a problem with that, and further don’t think possible pre-2005 baseball steroid users should be excluded since it was not formally banned with reliable testing and clear penalties in place. Players caught after that time like Rafael Palmeiro, A-Rod, and Manny Ramirez I can possibly see an exclusion case for but not Sosa, McGwire, Bonds, Clemens. Besides, Clemens and Bonds had their day in court and were not convicted.
Bachslunch, I think I agree on Anderson. He doesn’t have the ring, but he got there once. My recollection is postseason honors and most of the counting stats were similar and Anderson had a much better TD/INT ratio playing in roughly the same era for a team that generally was less successful than the Raiders. I wouldn’t have an issue with Stabler, but I think I also would go Anderson first.
Agree with everything you said Andy.
On both Anderson and your opinions on the Raiders.
Agreed with Andy that Stabler isn’t the Raider with the best case not in the HoF. For me, Cliff Branch and Dave Grayson are the biggest snubs. Would put Lester Hayes ahead of Stabler also. Also agreed that Jim Plunkett (and Tom Flores) don’t belong in the discussion.
Ken Stabler may not be the best one, but he is a big QB snub. I have nothing against Jim Plunkett having consideration, but I don’t think he gets in. Zero Pro Bowls and zero APs is tough to put in the HOF. 8-2(2 rings and SB MVP) in playoffs is very impressive. If he didn’t have a shaky start, I think he would be in already. His Raider days were decent to good. Side thought: If Revis makes first team AP next season(along with Pro Bowl), is he pretty much a lock for first ballot HOFer? Perhaps the best corner in the game past 6 years. His rookie year was rough but 2009-2011 he was playing corner like one of the best ever. He got hurt in 2012(still had a good first 2 games), missing 14 games. Jets traded him then was named first team AP by PPF with Bucs. This past season he was named first team AP with Pats by the bigger names and won a SB. He seems to be back in his prime again. I see 2 more AP seasons and 4-5 more pro bowl seasons. He may go down as the best Jet ever. He is already one of the best corners ever after first 8 seasons. 4(or 5 counting PPF)/6 before his 30th b-day and has plenty left in tank.
Would anybody blame me If I took anderson over stabler
Anderson vs Stabler is a classic numbers vs signature wins debate, but for me the issue is not whether which one is the top QB in the seniors pool, but instead that neither would rank for me among the top 15 seniors more deserving of election. Determining who should be in line for the HOF from the seniors pool is not about a position and whether QBs or any others need to be represented but instead about the best candidate regardless of position as it should not be about representation from a certain position, including QB, but about those most serving and for me there are many others at a range of positions, especially on defense with LBs and DB from the 1960s and 70s, more qualified.
Paul what is your top 15 list for the Seniors pool? I understand that guessing the senior pool like you said is a crapshoot but if you had to guess who would guess gets the nominee?
This list is based on what I have been able to find out regarding the finalists in the seniors candidate selections over the last few years, I make no claim that it is complete nor accurate, but it the best that I have been able to compile. Based on my opinion and merit, I would select Robinson and Howley, and both seem to be among the top candidates debated by the seniors committee. However, given my complete failure to get any of these selections correct in recent years and the tendency of the five member selection committee to go in any possible direction in a given year, we could be looking at any number of possible 2016 selections, although I think defense will be the focus perhaps even for both nominees. And result should be announced on or around August 19th.
RG – Jerry Kramer 5/3/60’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015)
G – Bob Kuechenberg 2/6/70s-80s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)
LT – Jim Tyrer 6/9/60-70’s (finalist 2012)
OT Al Wistert 1/8/40s (finalist 2014)
QB – Ken Anderson 3/4/70s-80s (finalist 2012)
WR – Cliff Branch 4/4 – 70s-80s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015)
OE LaVern Dilweg 20s (finalist 2014)
DT – Roger Brown 2/6/60’s (finalist 2012, 2013)
DE – L.C.Greenwood 2/6/70’s (finalist 2013, 2015)
DT – Alex Karras 0/4 60s (finalist 2012)
DL Joe Klecko 2/4 (finalist, 2015)
LB – Maxie Baughan 2/9/60’s (finalist 2012, 2014)
LB – Tommy Nobis 1/5/60’s-70’s (finalist 2012, 2014)
LB – Chuck Howley 5/6/60’s-70’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015)
LB- Mike Curtis 2/4/60s-70s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015)
LB- Randy Gradishar 5/7 (finalist, 2015)
LB Robert Brazile 5/7/70s(finalist, 2015)
CB- Bobby Boyd 0/2/60s(finalist, 2015)
CB-Pat Fischer 0/3 (finalist, 2015)
CB/S – Eddie Meador 2/6/60’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015)
CB – Lester Hayes 1/5/70s 80s (finalist 2012)
S – Johnny Robinson 6/7/60’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015)
S- Ken Riley 0/4 (finalist 2014)
FS – Cliff Harris 3/6/70’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)
I don’t see Stabler as a major snub. I see him as a borderline guy who I wouldn’t be offended by if he made it or if he didn’t.
Plunkett, I have to disagree with you some, unless you mean by “shaky start” the first nine years of his career. His case basically starts and ends with the Super Bowls. I have nothing against Plunkett – I’ve read and heard he’s a great guy. But those first nine years were, at his best, mediocre and, at worst, atrocious. And the Oakland years … he was there for eight seasons. The first one he barely played. The second one, the 1980-81 Super Bowl season, he wasn’t the starter at the beginning of the season. He got the job because Dan Pastorini got hurt. In 1981 he barely started half the games. He was the starter in 82 and 83, when he got the second ring. Then he stuck around for three more seasons, but during that time he only started another 17 games. So during the highlight of his career, he was really only the unquestioned starting QB for about three full seasons.
I feel for him a little bit in that he played most of his career surrounded by less than stellar talent. It would have been interesting if he had been in Oakland with Biletnikoff and Branch and Casper, et al, for all or most of his career. But he wasn’t. And in the end, on those title winning teams, he was largely Trent Dilfer.
I would only qualify your argument in that I think Anderson put up equal or better numbers than Stabler while playing with much lesser talent. Much like it would have been interesting to see what Jim Plunkett would have done with Branch, Biletnikoff and Casper his entire career, I’d say the same about Anderson. The difference between Anderson and Plunkett in my eyes is that Anderson still had a great career despite playing on bad teams, where Plunkett didn’t amount to much for more than half his career. You’re right, though, Stabler’s wins versus Anderson’s similar numbers and better ball protection … it’s an interesting debate.
Andy are you planning to write a prediction for the 2 senior nominee for the class of 2016?
I could potentially put Ken Anderson among my top 15 Seniors snubs, which I can’t say about Ken Stabler. Howley, Kramer, Dilweg, Wistert, Duke Slater, Tyrer, Johnny Robinson, Branch, Harold Jackson, Howton, Baughan, Cliff Harris, Gradishar, and Lemar Parrish would be my other top 15, at least as of right now. Tough to leave off Walt Sweeney, Lewellen, Riley Matheson, Brazile, Jimmy Patton, Meador, Bobby Dillon, Shofner, Speedie, Drew Pearson, Ox Emerson…..
Rob,
We have a couple ideas for Hall of Fame related posts that will run, hopefully, in the near future. But I’m not sure about seniors. There are commenters on this board who are better sourced than I am to make an actual prediction that way. I could give you my opinions, but they wouldn’t differ greatly from the names most frequently listed here: Kramer, Robinson, Howley, etc. I did write a Jim Tyrer piece a year ago or so and I’ve been a huge supporter in getting Mick Tingelhoff in. Otherwise … I don’t have a ton to add on the senior side right now, other than I think they should have two slots every year.
It amazes me every year they pass on Jerry Kramer and Johnny Robinson. Going back to QBs: Ken Anderson deserves to be enshrined. I don’t like to say who is better than who, but he may be the better Ken out of Stabler and Anderson. Completion % is nearly the same. Both played nearly the same exact years(Stabler 1970-1984, Anderson (1971-1986). So, it’s not like we are comparing different eras.Taking out years they were hurt , Stabler has a year with triple digit passer rating. Ken Anderson does not. However, Stabler has 2 seasons with a passer rating of 90 or more. Anderson: 4. Stabler has 4 seasons of 80 or higher. Anderson: 8. Ken lost to Joe Montana in SB. Stabler won, but it’s not like he played a Joe Montana(Fran is one of the best QBs ever, but many say Montana is best ever). For what it’s worth: Ken Stabler had Fred Biletnikoff (HOFer), Cliff Branch(should be a HOFer), and David Casper(HOFer). Ken Anderson had Isaac Curtis(very prominent), Cris Collinsworth(well known announcer. Underrated career) and Bob Trumpy, who was one of the better TEs of his time; but certainly not as good as Raiders’ receiving corp. Both deserve to be in, nevertheless.
As has been discussed here before, in my view Johnny Robinson suffered for many years due to an anti-AFL bias (although that appears to be changing recently with the HOF voters), plus a number of KC Chiefs have been elected as seniors in last several years – I believe he is close and his time coming soon.
Lots of debate about a long history of how HOF voters have viewed and treated Kramer, and know not sure when he will get elected as the number of 60s Packers is already pretty large and with the recent addition of Dave Robinson seems like bias against Kramer continues.
I am honestly not against anyone in. Like I said before, I don’t like saying 1 is better than the other. I do , however, have a problem who is not in.
i think since its getting close at least 3 weeks we should list the final 10 seniors that should be consinderd
Jerry Kramer, Johnny Robinson. Jim Tyrer, Chuck Howley,Ken Anderson, Ken Stabler, Joe Klecko, Tommy Nobis, Larry Grantham, and Winston Hill.
Jets need someone elected from Senior Nominee. Mark Gastineau also is a name you can consider for HOF someday too. 3/5 no All Decade Team but was 1 of the best pass rushers ever during prime.
RG – Jerry Kramer 5/3/60’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015)
G – Bob Kuechenberg 2/6/70s-80s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)
WR – Cliff Branch 4/4 – 70s-80s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015)
LB – Tommy Nobis 1/5/60’s-70’s (finalist 2012, 2014)
LB – Chuck Howley 5/6/60’s-70’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015)
LB- Mike Curtis 2/4/60s-70s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015)
LB- Randy Gradishar 5/7 (finalist, 2015)
CB/S – Eddie Meador 2/6/60’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015)
CB – Lester Hayes 1/5/70s 80s (finalist 2012)
S – Johnny Robinson 6/7/60’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015)
I was thinking of Bob Kechenberg and Cliff Branch. Too many not in in general.
I think a LB from the 1970s era is very strong possibility for one of the selections this year, in my view that should be Howley but I just have this feeling that senior committee may end up picking Curtis or Gradishar.
I would take either howley or gradishar as 1 of them who would be the other
If it was my decision: Johnny Robinson
But I have no idea who the seniors committee will select, thinking not OL again this year, so perhaps DB since that is next position with number of strong candidates..Meador??
A Linebacker and Defensive Bsck from the 60s/70s.
What about Lionel Taylor? I’m on the fence with him. Certainly has a case. His yards per catch isn’t high. 3/4 isn’t strong but he had decent seasons outside his AP/PB years. I see other receivers who deserve it and have better resumes.
For me it is hard to make a strong case for any player with less than a 4/4 profile since there remains so many seniors candidates with that profile or better (and all decade team members) not yet elected.
I’ve gone back and forth on Lionel Taylor for the HoF. Compared to two AFL WRs also not in:
Lionel Taylor: 10 seasons, 121 games, 567 catches, 7195 yards, 12.7 yds/catch, 45 TDs, 4/3/none
Charley Hennigan: 7 seasons, 95 games, 410 catches, 6823 yards, 16.6 yds/catch, 51 TDs, 3/5/allAFL
Art Powell: 10 seasons, 117 games, 479 catches, 8046 yards, 16.8 yds/catch, 81 TDs, 5/4/allAFL
Powell probably has the best case of the three, but note that Taylor was a possession type receiver and had terrible QBs throwing to him.
Art Powell is also another Jet/Titan that deserves to get in.They get overlooked all the time. How many players who played majority or a decent amount of their career as a Jet, ever been named a Senior Nominee ? I can’t think of one off top of my head.
Rick Gosselin in his chat today said if he was in the room for the Senior Finalist this year he would be pushing for a safety such as Meador or Robinson to get nominee.
I think four of the five possible 2016 selections are locks. Favre, Pace, Harrison, and Greene. I would not be surprised if Warner or Davis was the fifth selection. As for the veterans, I think a lot of them are deserving. Kuechenberg and Kramer should have been elected years ago. They are the most deserving of the Seniors. And both Kens, Anderson and Stabler, should go in for sure. And let me add another QB who should eventually get in, Bert Jones. In his prime he was the scariest QB I ever saw.
Thanks for the post, Randolph. Thoughts:
-am on board with Jerry Kramer (profile 5/3/60s). Have been less sure about Bob Kuechenberg (2/6/none), though he has several boosters such as Dr. Z. Not sure what film study says, but there are players were the disconnect between honors and film study is good-sized (Ray Nitschke being the most celebrated example).
-my thoughts on Anderson/Stabler is above — in brief, am feeling Anderson should get in first, then address Stabler. No question Bert Jones was a beast for about 4 seasons, but injuries impacted his career badly, and 10 years is pretty short for HoF QB consideration. Randall Cunningham and Daunte Culpepper have similar issues, and I doubt any of them get elected, even given how generous HoF voters have been with QBs.
Meador and/or Robinson would be a great senior candidate pick, along with Howley. Based on last years announcement date, we should hear on or about Aug 19th on 2016 senior nominees.
My two nominees. Will be ed meador and chuck howley
I would like to see Johnny Robinson and Chuck Howley. Mostly to clear up two guys that should have been in long ago. The same could be said for Jerry Kramer. If there were two platters that I cannot think as to why they didn’t get in right when their careers were over, it is Gradishar and Lester Hayes. I totally understand the backlog now, but every name I just mentioned should have already been elected.
When it comes to Kenny Anderson and Stabler, I always thought Anderson was underrated and Stabler was overrated. The I started looking closer at the numbers and I have come around on Stabler. In my mind they are both borderline at best…but If I was A general manager I would take both of these guys before, Griese, Namath, Waterfield, Layne, Blanda, Jurgensen and Tittle. I think both are comparable with Bradshaw, Fouts, Dawson Kelly and Tarkenton. If you noticed, everyone I mentioned is in the HOF.
Plunkett was even in the same category as these guys. He would be in the Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer and Chris Chandler category.
Billy W., thanks for the post. The reason I prefer Ken Anderson to Kenny Stabler for the HoF is tied to adjusted passer stats. For example, at Kiran Rasaretnam’s site:
http://newqbrating.blogspot.com/2010/04/c-scores-new-way-to-evaluate-pro.html#sthash.lSVVvetB.dpuf
Anderson ranks 3rd all-time in “best 4” and “best 7” and 5th all time in “best 10” years. He’s surrounded by HoF-ers in all cases, and well above most other QBs already in. Stabler ranks 32nd, 38th, and 26th respectively here. And I’ve seen similar rankings at other sites that attempt this, such as over at Football Outsiders.
To me, Anderson is like Tittle, Jurgensen, Fouts, Tarkenton, Marino, and Moon — a statistically superior HoF-level QB who did not win a championship. But he actually ranks out better than all of them at Rasaretnam’s site, except for Tarkenton’s “best 10.” To me, that’s a very powerful argument pro-Anderson. Stabler isn’t at this level of regular season accomplishment, unfortunately.
Thanks Bachslunch, that was an enjoyable read. How do you feel about some seniors that we do not often consider, but do mention on this site from time to time? Harold Jackson WR and Chuck Foreman RB.-
The good news re Chuck Foreman is that he’s arguably one of the better RBs not in the HoF. The bad news is that there are a number of comparable RBs to him such as Larry Brown, Don Perkins, and Ken Willard — all very good backs with more or less short careers — plus RB is one of the most over-represented positions in the HoF. I say we get more players from neglected positions like safety, WR, and OLB from the period as well as some glaring super-senior oversights (Dilweg, Lewellen, D. Slater, Wistert, Matheson, O. Emerson) in first before considering more RBs.
I’m all for Harold Jackson for the HoF, and that goes for other worthy WRs of the 70s like Harold Carmichael, Cliff Branch, and Drew Pearson — not to mention 40s-50s-60s guys like Mac Speedie, Billy Howton, Billy Wilson, and Del Shofner (maybe also Art Powell, Lionel Taylor, Otis Taylor, Gary Collins, Boyd Dowler, etc.). Jackson, Carmichael, Branch, and Pearson are comparable statistically (and actually better choices than Lynn Swann or John Stallworth) and WR generally tends to be a badly neglected position among HoF voters.
my senior list finalists
Ken Anderson
Maxie Baughan
Bill Bergey
Cliff Branch
Robert Brazile
Kenny Easley
Randy Gradishar
LC Greenwood
John Hadl
Cliff Harris
Chuck Howley
Harold Jackson
Joe Klecko
Jerry Kramer
Bob Kuechenberg
Jim Marshall
Ed Meador
Lemar Parrish
Ken Riley
Johnny Robinson
Dick Schafrath
Donnie Shell
Jerry Smith
Mac Speedie
Ken Stabler
Thoughts
Yes to many Robert lists, but no to Bergey, Riley, Marshall, and Hadl, on the fence with Kuechenberg, Stabler, and Schafrath. Bergey’s honors are less than most other deserving OLBs not in. Marshall and Riley have very thin postseason honors. Hadl strikes me as behind Anderson, Stabler, and Roman Gabriel in the QB pecking order. Schafrath has good honors but doesn’t grade out especially at Ken Crippen’s film study site. Stabler is behind Andersom at a heavily represented position. Kooch also has fairly thin honors but may grade out well in film study. There are several better candidates than these to my thinking.
If John Hadl won a SB and SB MVP he would be in already. He is missing postseason stardom or even winning a playoff game, to be considered for Senior Nominee. He was top 8 in punt average 2x. Not that his small stint as a punter counts for a whole lot; but it shows he was a very good player overall. Gets me thinking of Gino Cappelletti. 0/5 but his worthiness goes deeper than that. Led AFL in total points 5 out of 6 years. The only thing holding him back is his total receptions. Under 300 even for 50s-60s is kind of lows. I’d place his outside looking in. He needed 2 more pro bowls.
I’d like to comment on Ewing’s list. I would not pick most of them, but I have said before that Jerry Kramer and Bob Kuechenberg belong in the Hall of Fame. Cliff Branch was the best receiver on the list and should go in when they decide on a receiver. Chuck Howley was a great player. Especially in big games. And I think I must mention Larry Brown who I just remembered is ,by far, the best running back in the veterans category. HE HAS GOT TO GET IN!!!! I’m serious!!!! These are the top 5 non-QBs. Stabler, Anderson, and yes, I agree, Roman Gabriel are the three best QBs not in the Hall who should get in. I really don’t think there are any others which belong. John Hadl was NOT A GREAT QB. He does not deserve to get in. I will not say more on him. Thoughts!!!!
On Receivers: I want to say a few more things about receivers. Aside from Cliff Branch, who should be the first in line for the Hall, I can also support Otis Taylor and Drew Pearson. Taylor was a great player and Pearson was almost impossible to cover because of his ability to get open consistently. I would argue he was the best receiver in Cowboy history. As for the Harold’s, Carmichael and Jackson, in my judgement, if they go in, you will have to put in almost every other receiver on your list. Jackson had speed and Carmichael size, but a lot of other receivers were better than them as receivers who as just as deserving. I can defend, Branch, O. Taylor, and Pearson. I can’t go to bat for any others.
I will comment on receivers first. I say yes in this order to: Drew Pearson, Cliff Branch, Harold Jackson. I would add Pete Retzlaff as a TE. For QB’s, I like in this order Ken Anderson and Ken Stabler. I am not big on Hadl, Conerly or Gabriel and a definite no on Plunket. FOr RB’s I believe Larry Brown is the best available not in, but I would not put him in. I like Rick Caseras as a FB but he is borderline at best. For offensive lineman I like them in this order: Jerry Kramer, Bob Kuchenberg and Walt Sweeney.
For Defensive players I will start with the DB’s. I like in this order; J. Robinson, Lester Hayes, Cliff Harris, Eddie Meador, Keeny Easley, Donnie Shell and Jake Scott. The LB’s Ilike in this order: Howley, Gradishar, Curtis, Baughan, Brazille, Russell and Nobis
Defensive lineman I like in this order: Karras, Greenwood, Harvey Martin, Stanfill, Antwine, Klecko.
Tommy Davis is best special teamer not in, but the backlog is too long to include a punter.
made some changes to my list
Ken Anderson
Maxie Baughan
Cliff Branch
Mike Curtis
Robert Brazile
Kenny Easley
Randy Gradishar
LC Greenwood
Cliff Harris
Lester Hayes
Chuck Howley
Harold Jackson
Joe Klecko
Jerry Kramer
Bob Kuechenberg
Ed Meador
Tommy Nobis
Lemar Parrish
Drew Pearson
Andy Russell
Pete Retzlaff
Johnny Robinson
Dick Schafrath
Donnie Shell
Jerry Smith
Mac Speedie
Al Wistert
Thoughts did I miss any others
Picking the Top Ten from Ewing’s List.
1. Ken Anderson
2. Cliff Branch
3. Chuck Howley
4. Jerry Kramer
5. Bob Kuechenberg
6. Drew Pearson
7. Randy Gradishar
8. Lester Hayes
9. Tommy Nobis
10.Johnny Robinson
Okay, I’ll play along. Ranking of Seniors subject to change without notice.
Top 15 in order: Lavvie Dilweg, Al Wistert, Duke Slater, Johnny Robinson, Chuck Howley, Billy Howton, Jim Tyrer, Maxie Baughan, Ken Anderson, Randy Gradishar, Cliff Harris, Harold Jackson, Lemar Parrish, Jerry Kramer, Cliff Branch.
Kickers: Tommy Davis
QBs: Ken Anderson
Guards: Jerry Kramer, Walt Sweeney, Ed Budde, Dick Barwegen, Duane Putnam, Jim Ray Smith, Dick Stanfel
OT: Jim Tyrer
TE: Pete Retzlaff, Jerry Smith
WR: Billy Howton, Harold Jackson, Cliff Branch, Del Shofner, Billy Wilson, Mac Speedie, Drew Pearson, Harold Carmichael
DE: L.C. Greenwood, Gene Brito, Joe Klecko, Mark Gastineau
DT: Houston Antwine
LB: Chuck Howley, Maxie Baughan, Randy Gradishar, Robert Brazile, Joe Fortunato, Larry Grantham
CBs: Lemar Parrish, Bobby Boyd, Abe Woodson
Safety: Johnny Robinson, Cliff Harris, Jimmy Patton, Eddie Meador, Bobby Dillon, Kenny Easley, Donnie Shell
Super-seniors: Lavvie Dilweg, Al Wistert, Duke Slater, Verne Lewellen, Riley Matheson, Ox Emerson
The five selections for the 2016 Hall of Fame will be Brett Favre, Orlando Pace, Kevin Greene, Marvin Harrison, and Kurt Warner. The others on the ballot will have to wait another year. I hope there will be two Veterans choices and that those will be Jerry Kramer and Ken Stabler. If not Stabler, then Ken Anderson. If not Kramer, then Chuck Howley.
abe woodson is a new name who should I replace on my list with abe woodson
My 15 finalist for Class of 2016: Brett Favre. Kurt Warner, Edgerrin James, Terrell Davis, Marvin Harrison,Terrell Owens, Orlando Pace,Kevin Mawae,Alan Faneca, Kevin Greene, John Lynch, Morten Anderson, Jimmy Johnson,and Tony Dungy. Elected: Brett Favre (lock), Kurt Warner has a very slight chance. I see him getting in the following year. Edgerrin is definitely the best RB currently eligible. He will have to wait a couple more years for others to be in who have waited. Marvin Harrison(strong chance), Orlando Pace(1 of the top 5 players overall on ballot) Kevin Greene(Been waiting for years. Should have the momentum), Alan Faneca could squeeze in but give him a small chance. Definitely a front runner for 2017. As for rest: TD I think will have to wait another 3-4 seasons. Tony Dungy has a good shot this year. Jimmy Johnson is next in line for coaches. Anderson is the all time leading scorer and games played. He was named All Decade team 2 different times. He’ll get in soon. Only 2 pure ST players in HOF. Morten will be the 3rd. Lynch will have to wait, as have a lot of safeties. They get treated as back burner types. Kevin Mawae is by far the best Center of the late 90s (1997, 1998, 1999) into the mid to late 2000s(before 2010, retired in 2009, still one of the best in league then) I see Favre and Harrison as the virtual locks. I would be shocked if they put TO over Marvin Harrison. 2017 should have Warner, Faneca, and TO as front runners. It’ll be interesting how voters priorities who gets in first. I see 1-2 players getting in that will shock some of us. The 2015 and 2016 nominees are very deep. Zach Thomas isn’t even mentioned yet with 5/7/00s. I believe he is a HOFer, but it will take time. I would put him in 4-5 years from now. He was one of the best LBs of his time and that includes Ray Lewis, Derrick Brooks, Brian Urlacher, and Junior Seau.
Add Dave Grayson to my cornerback list above. Always forget someone….
Since the Senior’s will most likely get picked next week. If you had to guess what 2 seniors gets the nomination? I will go with Robinson and Curtis I would pick Howley before Curtis though.
Every year Jerry Kramer and Johnny Robinson are the first 2 names I think of. Hasn’t happened past 20+ years(getting elected), so we shouldn’t think it will happen anytime soon. I see Chuck Howley possibly. he is my 3rd biggest snub for PFHOF. As for the other I hope for a Jet like Joe Klecko. He was one of the pass rushers in prime and also very good interior lineman too. Both completely different types of skill sets.
@bachlunch, why focus solely on post season honors. The Pro Bowl is a joke ! There are numerous occasions where players make the Pro Bowl 5X’s based on 1 season. or smaller market team’s players not getting the attention.
Jerome: please tell me what’s wrong with postseason honors and what quantifiable alternative you’d suggest for HoF consideration. And you’re going to have to convince me that the Pro Bowl is big-market biased — otherwise, how could you explain Anthony Munoz going to 11 such games as a Cincinnati Bengal, Tony Gonzalez going to 14 as a Chief and Falcon, Randall McDaniel going to 12 as a Viking, etc.
Bachslunch,
Pro bowls in recent years is a bigger joke thanks to Roger Goodell. Judging a current player if he belongs in the Hall of Fame based on Pro Bowls is a problem due to the game being played a week before the Super Bowl. Players that made the Pro Bowl can’t play in the Pro Bowl if they are on a Team that is playing in the Super Bowl. That issue increases the amount of players being named in the Pro Bowl for a season.
The Pro Bowl before Roger trying to “fix” the problem with it already had issues with players skipping it due to injuries or players that simply don’t want to play in it. Roger basically made the Pro Bowl worse by the date its being played on. That means some positions have players in it that shouldn’t be in it from how weak a certain position is in that season.
The best way to judge the current players is by 1st and 2nd All pro teams, the defensive player of the year, Offensive Player of the player of the year, All decade teams, and NFL MVP.
Brad I could go along with joe klecko hes great in my book the other one has to be either chuck howley or johnny robinson but if its not ill be ok with it
I include the Pro Bowl as a “second tier” level of accomplishments for consideration. I don’t keep full stock in any one honor, but see it as a blend of things. But the Pro Bowl has been watered down a little since it was moved pre-Super Bowl.
I may take note of Pro Bowls because I respect players that have earned the respect of other players. But my main criteria is what I actually saw with my own eyes. That is why I take Ken Stabler over Ken Anderson. And Ken Anderson over Dan Fouts in that Ice Bowl in Cincinnati. It is also why I insist that Larry Brown be in the Hall of Fame. I saw his greatness with my own eyes. I could name others in addition to these, but there is time for that later. How about a QB 2016 class including Kurt Warner, Brett Favre, Ken Stabler, and Ken Anderson. That would just about clear the deck of QBs.
Agreed, a Warner, Favre, Stabler, Anderson class would sure get the QB position caught up.
I have a problem with the “saw with my own eyes” HoF argument unless we’re talking knowledgeable, systematic film study like is done over at Ken Crippen’s site:
http://kencrippen.com/historical-scouting-reports.htm
Knowing what to look for is really important, as is having a good viewing point and having a reasonable sample size. If we’re talking just watching a game, there’s a lot going on at once and distractions are easy to encounter. And it’s hard to control bias in any kind of visual observation, even film study, though the best in theory can contain their biases. I’m in favor of postseason honors put in good context, certain stats in good context, and reliable film study, blending all these into the mix when considering HoF fitness. One reason I like postseason honors is that it tells us what observers at the time thought of the player and it’s quantifiable to a fair extent — 5 first team all pro selections vs. none is pretty cut-and-dried and sets up a clear hierarchy.
I think when we are considering senior candidates (who played before 1990) Pro Bowl selections are one tool to use to evaluate candidates as back in the 1950s-1980s the voters and players selected took it more serious and meaningful and as such it does provide one means of noting the best players in a given year and so 4 or more Pro Bowl selections during a career does mean something in evaluating senior candidates. I agree the more recent Pro Bowls will present challenges as to determining their relative value in future elections.
Matthew Stafford has had Pro Bowl level seasons(1 season of 5k and other of 4,900), only named to 1. which was last season(4,200). I do think Matthew has a shot at HOF some day. I know he is still young and needs 5-6 more seasons of 4,300+ yards to push for it, which I think is very realistic. His numbers in passing stats will be something to look at. He is the all time passing yards per game leader. 50,000 yards+, with 300+ TDs is a lock(not first ballot, but on the modern era ballot) for the HOF in any era.
I’ll be posting my 15 senior finalists soon
my Finalists List
1. Ken Anderson
2. Maxie Baughan
3. Cliff Branch
4. Robert Brazile
5. Kenny Easley
6. Randy Gradishar
7. Cliff Harris
8. Lester Hayes
9. Chuck Howley
10. Joe Klecko
11. Jerry Kramer
12. Bob Kuechenberg
13. Johnny Robinson
14. Jerry Smith
15. Ken Stabler
Of course I’ve been arguing that Chuck Howley is the most deserving senior candidate for years. That a Super Bowl MVP with 5 AP first team All Pro selections and 6 Pro Bowls spread out over 7 accolade seasons (which easily could have been more) hasn’t even been nominated is an embarrassment to the HoF process. Everyone with more AP first team All NFL selections is either already in the HoF or not yet eligible. Most eligible candidates with an equal number and many with fewer are in the HoF. The few other senior candidates with an equal number who aren’t in had fewer Pro Bowls and none were Super Bowl MVPs.
I should add an exception is Zach Thomas, but he’s only been eligible for two years. I doubt he’ll have to wait as long as Howley has for induction.
Actually Thomas only has an equal number of 1st team All NFL selections, so he’s not an exception after all. It’s long past time to nominate Howley.
Hopefully by this time tomorrow we will have good news on Howley (and Johnny Robinson!). But for some reason I have this feeling that the senior committee is going to advance one of the other 70s era LB before Howley.
Which one are you thinking paul
Mike Curtis
This makes for an interesting read…
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2015/predicting-2016-pro-football-hall-fame-class
Zach is just facing an overall backlog. The # of well qualified players is so darn deep. The following have good shots at the HOF from last season’s ballot(not including who made it): Kurt Warner, Issac Bruce, Torry Holt,Sterling Sharpe(different opinions on him. I am for him in), Terrell Davis( I am for getting in and we have discussed him before) Shaun Alexander(His peak was incredible. Also, another name people have completely different views on), Edgerrin James, Tony Boselli(has a compelling case),Kevin Mawae, Orlando Pace,Joe Jacoby, Steve Wisniewski, Bryant Young( He has an outside shot with 2/4/90s, but he played a long time and had solid seasons outside his Pro Bowl and AP years. He has a case as a Senior if it goes that far), Kevin Greene, Zach Thomas, Steve Atwater, Joey Browner(4/6/80s. He deserves to be in someday), Ty Law, John Lynch, Darren Woodson, Morten Anderson, Gary Anderson(Might have to wait until Senior Nominee, but I am for him in during modern era ballot),Tony Dungy, and Bill Cowher. Others that have shots that I didn’t name, but I picked ones I feel strongest about. Once the obvious ones get elected, Zach Thomas will get in the semi finalists and then finalist.
I have a feeling jerry kramer will not be one of the nominees does anyone share this feeling
I also think seniors committee has moved beyond Kramer. Green Bay LB David Robinsons election a few years ago was a telling sign to me.
Jerry Kramer is a HOFer in my eyes regardless in or out. But,I also agree. Hopefully they elect others who deserve then re-visit him. Mick Tinglehoff was get passed over many times as well. It was looking he would never get in.
My Final Finalists List
1. Ken Anderson
2. Robert Brazile
3. Kenny Easley
4, L.C. Greenewood
5. Chuck Howley
6. Joe Klecko
7. Bob Kuechenberg
8. Jim Marshall ( Super Bowl 50 Will Be in Minnesota)
9. Johnny Robinson
10. Ken Stabler
which two would you pick from this group
Howley and Robinson (and look for official announcement from HOF around 1p EDT today)
Robinson and Wistert today, please.
Stanfel and Stabler it is.
I’ve never considered Stabler worthy. Stanfel is another Humphrey. Can they just let him in already and focus on others?
What are your issues with stabler corey
I wouldn’t say Dick Stanfel is another Claude Humphrey. Stanfel has a short career. 5/5/50s in a 7 year career. I would put him in. If he played 1 year less or 1 less AP then maybe not.
Stabler has a lack of profiles and more picks than touchdowns.
They picked two guys who died recently. Obviously an emotional sentiment vote, but wasted. Their deaths mean there’s less rush now. It would have been better to select older guys who are still alive. It’s certainly a mistake to go with two posthumous nominations in the same year.
I think it’s disrespectful to the players, the families, the fans, everyone. Is this like the Baseball Hall of Fame Veterans Committee where they only elect the deceased now? It’s a slap in the face.
Again HOF seniors selection is unpredictable, sorry but there are many more deserving candidates then Stanfel and Stabler and personally I think emotion played more into their election then logic. So are all the other 70+ old more qualified seniors going to wait until they are dead? As far as I can tell Stabler had not even been on the final 15 list of senior candidates in recent years, yet suddenly he advances all the way to election, jumping over players who have been close for a while. Sorry but I do not think that is far to those more deserving. Perhaps people like Howley, Robinson and Kramer need to die in order to get the recognition they so deserve.
And Stanfel is an interesting case as he has been a senior candidate 2x before (1993, 2012) and not elected, will he thus become first senior candidate to be elected after 3 tries??? Yet several other deserving candidates have never even been candidates once – modern or senior – and have never had their cases presented to the full HOF voting committee for possible election, another unfair deal.
How does a committee nominate Humphrey twice, Stanfel three times and Kramer was one and done in 1997?
Or Howley zero times? I know the problems with the process go beyond just Michigan transplant Rick Gosselin and the anti-Cowboys bias, but with Stanfel being nominated a THIRD time, and in light of Gosselin having a position of powerful influence on the senior committee all these years, I have to point out that since 2007 only one Cowboy has been nominated (Bob Hayes in 2009) while Lions have been nominated FOUR times:
Charlie Sanders (2007)
Dick LeBeau (2010)
Dick Stanfel (2012)
Dick Stanfel (2016)
Having the supposed Dallas “representative” be a Michigan guy and long time Lions fan who was picked for life by a bunch of national media figures who largely hate the Dallas Cowboys is deeply unfair.
Gosselin wasn’t in the room this year.
It’s 2015. Clearly politics are still prevalent when it comes to Canton.
The voters and the Senior Committee is doing some bullcrap this year. The Senior Committee is basically pulling a Ron Santo on Stabler and Stanfel and I consider that disgusting. Pulling a Ron Santo is when Hall of Fame Voters know a player belong into the Hall of Fame, but they don’t want that player to enjoy that honor while they are alive.
Stanfel at least should have been inducted while he was alive and I hope he gets in this time.
Stabler to me always been an interesting case. While there was politics involved for him not getting him in before he did, I thought Ken Anderson was the better of the 2 players. I thought Stabler should be put in after Anderson.
Yuck. Just when you think they’re starting to get tit right, too. This is like the bad old days of a couple years ago. Stanfel has the honors (5/5/50s) but his career is short and he doesn’t grade out that well on Ken Crippen’s film study site — there’s no reason to think he’ll do any better the third time out. Stabler meanwhile isn’t even the best QB senior candidate (that would be Ken Anderson) and his stats level and single Super Bowl win puts him at about the same level as Joe Theismann and Charlie Conerly, neither of whom belong on — not to mention that there are still rumblings in some corners (Dr. Z’s for one) that Stabler may have gotten bad late in his career because of point shaving type issues.
In fact, this looks like a sop tossed to two guys who died recently, not a good way to pick candidates. And Stanfel coming up for a third time makes it look like there aren’t really any good senior candidates left, when that’s far from the case.
They’ve been getting it mostly right with the regular candidates the last several years, but the senior process continues to be a problem.
Corey, The reason Kramer was only voted on once is due to politics.
Sorry, I meant “get IT right.” And “neither of whom belong IN.” Stupid autocorrect.
The nominations are for the class of 2016. Gosselin wasn’t in the 5 of 9 rotation for the final nomination vote this year, but he’s still on the senior committee and voted for the senior finalists earlier. I’m also sure these guys talk to each other and he certainly talks publicly. I’ve heard him say almost nothing about Chuck Howely though, much less push his case.
Mentioning Ron Santo breaks my heart as a Cubs fan.
Stanfel I do support. It’s just pathetic he’s nominated a third time.
They did the same with Richter, too. I’m not happy with the committee at all today.
With only 5 senior committee members in the room and debating and voting starting with 15 finalists down to the 2 selected means 1 or 2 voters can really influence the process. If we have a process that allows for senior candidates to advance right to the finalist stage for voting by the full HOF committee and there are so many deserving candidates, the process and those involved with selecting the 2 senior candidates needs to change,starting with more voters involved.
So the committee should listen to bach lunch opinion sheesh guys just be happy for the two guys and move on I’m tired of your guy’s whining and complaining
New post up here for further discussion: https://www.zoneblitz.com/2015/08/19/stanfel-stabler-senior-hall-fame-nominees/
With the backlog, I’d like to see them put in place some sort of up or down rule – maybe it’s two times in front of the senior committee max or maybe it’s once you’ve been voted down by the senior committee, you can’t be considered again for 10 years or something like that. I don’t know if Stanfel should be in or not – he’s kind of got the same case Terrell Davis does, with the seven-year career, etc. – but I don’t like the fact that he’s up for consideration so soon after being relatively recently turned down by voters. I think there may be a decent chance neither of these guys get in.
not surprised with how they went now then I’m just wondering if anyone is surprised that jerry Kramer didn’t get the nod and I think he didn’t for the following reasona
1. The Fact that dave robinson was considered a senior nominee back in 2013 and there not ready to make jerry Kramer a senior nod
2.could it be the fact that there are too many packers from that era in the hall of fame the one packer I’m surprised that hasn’t gotten a look because of the Kramer talk is gale gillingham 5/0 who has never gotten a look
4. Has Been Considered 10x by the hall of fame and just wanted to move on from jerry Kramer
Johnny Robinson wasn’t nominated because I think that he has the same prob as jerry Kramer is that I’m not too sure that they would nominate a chief so soon like they did for curley culp in 2013
why Chuck Howley hasn’t be considered as a senior is a total mystery to me he def deserves it the only thing I can think of is 1. Too many Cowboys Seniors To Pick From 2.already enough cowboys
Additional Thoughts
1. Could it Be that the bengals aren’t promoting ken Anderson for the hall of fame if they would have would ken Anderson been in the hof already or at least close
2. I think its time to expand the seniors from the 1-2 to Between 4-20 and have their own separate inductions
Thoughts
Chuck Howley and Lester Hayes would’ve been better nominees.
Howley has more than enough resume, a SB MVP and was a superstar on Cowboys’ teams that played in 5 NFC Championships, two SB’s and a SB Champion in 1971. Bob Lilly, Mel Renfro and Bob Hayes were also stars on those teams and are all in the HOF.
Hayes might have had the greatest season ever for a DB in 1980, helping lead the Raiders to a SB title that year. In 1983, Hayes and Mike Haynes formed arguably the best CB tandem ever, leading the Raiders to another SB title that season.
I’m thinking the same thing you are board game I’m baffled that howley hasn’t been nominated do you agree
I’m not taking anything away from the two nominated guys and I hope both of them get in, but I cannot answer why obvious guys like Howley, J. Robinson, Kramer, Hayes and Gradishar never seem to be at least one of the nominations until they are all in the HOF!
Robert
The Dave Robinson/Curly Culp argument against nominating another Packer or Chief falls apart when you consider the Raiders have had Ray Guy and now Kenny Stabler as Seniors nominees in the last 2 years. Having said that, they’ll probably shy away from any more Raiders for a while, which doesn’t bode well for Branch and Hayes.
Does anyone know when the preliminary list of nominees for the Hall of Fame is to be put out for public viewing?
Should be soon. It came out a year ago on this day for 2015 HOF. Not sure if they will do the same day, but I would think it will come out this month.
https://twitter.com/ProFootballHOF/status/644148197720489984/photo/1
Vinny made it! Not that he has any realistic shot, but his career #s are among best ever. I love seeing the ones that are definitely not HOFers but had very good careers: (The more recent retirees) Brian Westbrook(1st year eligible), Chris Samuels(2x on ballot),Mike Vrabel(1st year eligible),Lawyer Milloy(1st year eligible),Keith Bulluck(First year eligible),John Carney(1st year eligible), The RB pool is pretty deep: Alexander,Walker, Craig, Holmes, Portis, Watters, Anderson, Lewis and Barber are all borderline HOFers or among the best RBs ever(if you were to rank the top 100 RBs/FBs/etc, all of these would make it)(Eddie George is certainly in that group as well) I personally think Shaun Alexander and Roger Craig should be in one day. The ones who probably will be in on modern ballot from RBs are Edgerrin James and Terrell Davis. As far as the big time first year names, Brett Favre,Terrell Owens and Alan Faneca are virtual locks for finalists. It will interesting how they treat Darren Sharper since he is eligible this year and his off the field issues. I don’t feel like digging up my first post on who I picked for finals or semifinalists. I will just do another one(Semifinalists): Brett Favre, Kurt Warner, Edgerrin James, Terrell Davis, Roger Craig,Terrell Owens, Marvin Harrison, Torry Holt, Issac Bruce,Alan Faneca,Kevin Mawae,Orlando Pace,Steve Wisniewski,Kevin Greene, Zach Thomas,Steve Atwater, Ty Law, Darren Sharper(not too sure on this one, but I think he could squeeze in), Darren Woodson, Morten Andersen, Tony Dungy, Bill Cowher,Jimmy Johnson. The ones who I think have a good shot at making the semis: Tony Boselli,Gary Anderson, Steve Tasker,Joe Jacoby, It will be a tough year to pick the semifinalists. A lot of great names.
Glad to see Leslie O’Neal and Simeon Rice finally named to the prelim list. Corey Dillon, Richmond Webb, Warrick Dunn, Neil Smith, Pat Swilling, Greg Lloyd, Hardy Nickerson and Carnell Lake need to be added in the future.
Looks like Deron Cherry will have to drop into the Seniors Pool next year.
Brad, that’s a very solid list of semi finalists but I’d swap Cowher for Coryell. Add Mecklenberg and A.Lewis to the list of those who have a shot. I also think voters will shy away from Darren Sharper.
I forgot to add Mecklenberg and Lewis, good calls on that. And It is weird that they put in Mark May with 1 Pro Bowl and no APs but not the likes of who you named. Doesn’t make sense to me. Nothing against Mark, but those are better players in their respective positions. Corey Dillon is a borderline HOFer just on his #s alone. Deron Cherry should be up for Senior Nominee and elected.
I forgot John Lynch. He would make my final 25 for semi’s for sure.
For me the preliminary list of the nominees is the least interesting and unimportant part of the process when you end up with over 100 names – half of whom will never get in the HOF – it is essentially meaningless. I mean…….Ethan Albright….really???? We may as well nominate very one who ever played or coached in the league who is eligible as a modern candidate. Sure perhaps some of them will take some pride and recognition for appearing on the list, but when you see Albright just re-enforces what little meaning this list has for anyone and certainly for the election process. Lets just skip right ahead to the 25 semifinalists for a real discussion and debate over the merits of those selected at that stage.
Life got in the way a bit this week, so I’m late posting, but we put this up this afternoon: https://www.zoneblitz.com/2015/09/17/pro-football-hall-fame-unveils-108-nominees-2016-enshrinement/
I understand it’s “not important” but I am a youngster and like to see the names I “grew up with”. Ethan Albright is just paying homage to Long Snappers. It’s a shame Joey Browner might have to wait until Senior Nominee. We pretty much think Marvin Harrison will get in, then Terrell Owens,and then Randy Moss, then what is the pecking order for the next?
Brad: Great question. The receivers are going to continue to bedevil the committee, but as the game shifts away from running and more to passing, it is not unreasonable to argue that there should be a wr elected most years (similar to how there is usually one OL). My preferred order (not necessarily my predicted order) would be:
1. Harrison (no explanation necessary)
2. Holt (underrated generally, especially his peak)
3. Bruce (incredible consistency)
4. Moss (freak of nature who may take longer than expected to be enshrined because of his taking plays, games, and/or years off)
5. Ward (throwback player who did a little bit of everything)
6. Wayne (assuming he is already done and will be next in the queue)
7. A. Johnson (almost done and severely underrated)
8. S. Smith (keeps adding to his totals and will be remembered as the best player in Carolina history)
9. L. Fitzgerald (amazing peak)
10. C. Johnson (closest to a first year lock on this list)
11. A. Boldin (personal favorite, severely underappreciated. Sentimental pick I guess, although I doubt he’ll be inducted.
As for Owens, I think he is in for a long wait. Undeniably has the numbers, but he created as much havoc as he made plays.
There are others who might be serious consideration either at the end of their 25 years or from the seniors committee like Gary Clark, Rod Smith, Wes Welker, Jimmy Smith, etc.
Great breakdown of the wide receivers justin
Wes Welker won’t get it. His yards per reception is very low. His receptions is watered down. How many of the receptions are 10 yards or more down the field in the air? Not too many. Hall of very good, not HOF. He had Brady and Manning as his QBs too.
In*
I honestly think a number of these guys might be great senior nomniees at other positions which names stood out as potential seniors 1 name that stuck out was joey browner
When there are all decade and multiple year all pro team members from the 1950s, 60s and 70s still in the senior pool, I would not hold out much hope for most of those WRs to be elected if they fall into the senior pool.
1. Harrison (no explanation necessary) YES LIKELY IN 2016
2. Holt (underrated generally, especially his peak) PERHAPS BUT WAIT COULD BE LONG
3. Bruce (incredible consistency) PERHAPS BUT DO BOTH HOLT AND BRUCE GET IN?, I AM NOT SO SURE.
4. Moss (freak of nature who may take longer than expected to be enshrined because of his taking plays, games, and/or years off) YES WITHIN A FEW YEARS
5. Ward (throwback player who did a little bit of everything) YES BUT MAY TAKE SEVERAL YEARS
6. Wayne (assuming he is already done and will be next in the queue) NOT SO SURE
7. A. Johnson (almost done and severely underrated) YES BUT AGAIN A WAIT
8. S. Smith (keeps adding to his totals and will be remembered as the best player in Carolina history) NO
9. L. Fitzgerald (amazing peak) YES
10. C. Johnson (closest to a first year lock on this list) YES IF HE CAN FINISH CAREER STRONG
11. A. Boldin (personal favorite, severely underappreciated. Sentimental pick I guess, although I doubt he’ll be inducted. NO
And TO will be elected within the next five years over anyone on that list except Moss.
After writing my earlier list, I decided to actually do some research and not just trust my gut. Here are the results (pro bowl / all pro / AR from pro-football-reference):
Harrison 8/3/124
Holt 7/1/99
Bruce 4/0/102 (longer career, higher AR)
Moss 6/4/123
Ward 4/0/88
Wayne 6/1/117
A. Johnson 7/2/93
S. Smith 5/2/100 (surprisingly high AR. All pros include one as a returner)
L. Fitzgerald 8/1//74 (surprisingly low AR)
C. Johnson 5/3/71 (with plenty of years left)
A. Boldin 3/0/82
Owens 6/5/119
Therefore, my gut was pretty close to post-season awards. However, looking at this makes me more confident on Wayne, Holt and to a lesser degree Smith, but less confident on Ward. Obviously, Boldin doesn’t stand out, but his career numbers do, especially as he has played half his career on run-first teams (Baltimore and San Francisco).
All of those wide receivers on the list from above can state thier case for Hall of Fame, but in all honesty only Moss, Harrison and Owens can say they a no doubt are qualified. All the rest compare to Irving Fryar, Henry Ellard, Stanly Morgan, Harold Carmichael, Harold Jackson, Sterling Sharpe, Rod Smith Cliff Branch and Drew Pearson. All of theses players will rely on their representatives speaking on their behalf as much as the stats they accumulated while they played.
Players with 5 fewer pro bowls + 1 or no all pro typically have a longer road to the HOF. Like the 10,000 yard career rushers from the 80s and 90s era, the passing game numbers from the current era I believe will hurt rather than help many of these WRs (the impact was already felt by the debates and long waits for recent 90s WRs), plus the fact that so many will be on the ballot at the same time.
Once voters get past the 2000s and 2010s WRs on the all decade teams (and given they are still missing WRs from previous all decade teams and just getting started with the 2000s team) it may even take a long time to decide on any other WRs, hence my lack of support for the cases of Bruce, Wayne, S. Smith, and A. Boldin. The only other factor that may come into play is playoff success and SB wins – which is why I would give a little more support for Ward.
Also remember for very top WR that comes out from the 2000s and 2010s era, there are a larger number of equally or more qualified players from other positions also on the ballot, and no requirement or expectation that every annual finalist contains a WR, in recent elections QBs and RBs have often been missing from finalist lists in many years.
And as Waller points out, do not rely on the seniors committee to help out much with the 1990s-current WRs since they already have a backlog of WRs – including all decade team members as far back as the 1950s.
I don’t like the chances of Steve Smith, Boldin, Bruce and Wayne. Steve Smith is one of those players that his odds got decreased by missing games. I think him only playing one game in 2004 really hurt his Hall of Fame odds.
I like to say yes Boldin, but he had 4 problems is why I say no. His years in Baltimore affected his projection. I also thought his missed games as Cardinal did hurt him. Boldin missed 6 games in 2004, 4 games in 2007 and 4 games in 2008. He got overlooked in his Cardinal years due to Larry Fitzgerald. Boldin not not being on any first all pro teams really has hurt him besides the other 3 reasons I mention
I said no Wayne because I thought he got overlooked by Marvin Harrison.
I really think Isaac Bruce and Terry Holt really cancel each out. The other problem is the games Bruce missed on 97 and 98 did hurt him besides his 4 pro bowls. The other issue with Bruce to me was his 1995 season not getting any honors despite 119 receptions and having 1,781 yards.
I mentioned Bruce’s 1995 season because it was one of the best seasons ever by a wide Receiver and was the best season of his career. Isaac that year as a 2nd year player got overlooked by Herman Moore, Cris Carter, Jerry Rice, and Michael Irvin.
Great discussion everyone. I’ve said before on this board that we are likely to see a change in HOF voting as the game itself changes (obviously just a hunch until it actually happens). In the five years or so, three RBs were elected (Faulk, Martin, and Bettis). It is unlikely that such a concentration of RBs will be elected together for some time (and perhaps never). The game just doesn’t allow RBs to get the opportunities they need (another Emmitt Smith could be playing right now, but we’ll never know because no player is getting those kinds of carries today). Therefore, with RBs featured less, it only stands to reason that other positions will benefit, primarily TEs and WRs. For example, the currently inducted TEs can be broken down as follows: 60s: 2 (Ditka, Mackey); 70s: 2.5 (Sanders, Smith, half of Casper’s career); 80s: 2.5 (Newsome, Winslow, other half of Casper); 90s: 1 (Sharpe). But there will also certainly be 3 TEs from the 00s, Gonzalez, Gates, Witten. And the 10s are starting out strong with Gronk and Graham. Admittedly, not a huge increase, but still significant. I obviously think that the same thing will happen with WRs as voters start to realize that most teams have at least three on the field at all times. Therefore, the position is both more significant and more are being used at any given time. Therefore, theoretically more should be inducted from the 00s and 10s than were inducted from the 50s, 60s, 70s, and 80s.
I meant to type production instead of Projection.
I think there are going be to more Tight Ends being inducted into the Hall of Fame in terms of 1980’s tight ends through the Senior Committee. I think Todd Christensen has a very good chance at some point of the Senior Committee selecting him along with the Committee been selecting Raider Players in Ray Guy and now Ken Stabler.
If Stabler gets inducted by the voters, I wouldn’t be shocked if Todd could be the next Raider by selected by the Senior Committee or Lester Hayes.
I completely missed the preliminary nominees coming out. Looks pretty heavy on RB’s and OL, and pretty light on DL and TE. I don’t think anybody missing would have been a semi-finalist, but there are definitely some close names that I wish were making this list more often. Has anybody ever actually mailed in a nomination? I am considering doing that for next year. Obviously, there is a die hard Redskins fan that is mailing something in every year. I can’t think of any other possible explanation for why Jon Jansen now has 2 nominations, Mark May, Jeff Bostic, Dexter Manley and Mark Schlereth get nominated frequently and worst all…ETHAN ALBRIGHT?!?!?!? Not that this is by any means accurate, but he was once the LOWEST rated player in a Madden video game. In the words of Gob Bluth, COME ON!!
As for the debate on receivers, I’d say Moss, Owens, Harrison, Andre Johnson and Fitzgerald are locks. I think Holt, Wayne and Calvin Johnson should all get in as well with Johnson really only needing another elite season or two to be a lock. Hines Ward would be next in line. I’ve stated many times before that I think his career is massively overrated, but it’s hard to make a case that he doesn’t at least have as good a chance as Isaac Bruce, who I think is borderline. Steve Smith is really around the same as Irving Fryar to me…I don’t think he gets in. Boldin has had a very good career, but absent some sort of obscene counting numbers at the end of his career, I can’t see him having a chance. I think that after loading up on RB’s from the 90’s, the hall will load up on receivers from the 00’s. Having 6 or 7 from a decade isn’t out of the question at all.
Switching topics. What is everyone’s opinion on Eli and Ben for HOF? Both have the #s and post season play to make a serious case. Ben’s #’s aren’t so good on paper, but if you have watched the game, his play definitely helped out. That drive vs Cardinals and pass to Holmes to finish it off? That was incredible! Bettis’ botched hand off at goal line and Ben made that tackle. Colts missed field goal and Steelers won. If Ben wasn’t there to make the play, it was possibly a TD. And has made other clutch plays. Pro Bowls and APs are holding them back, but they are in an era with Tom, Brees, Peyton, Kurt, Rivers, Romo, Stafford, and others. Not easy making the Pro Bowl/AP teams. This might be the deepest era for QBs ever.
I meant Bettis botched it at the goal line, not the hand off itself.
Once the HOF gets past Brady, P Manning, Brees and Warner, I can see Ben having the next serious shot with Eli following, but hard to say how long it may take for either to get in. I can see 4-6 QBs from the 2000s decade getting in, but it may take a while. QBs with solid careers plus two SBs are going to get serious HOF consideration. Romo and Rivers really depends on how the rest of their careers play out in terms of numbers and playoff successes including HOF but time is running out for both of them, this year and next few will tell the final tale. And soon the shift will move onto the 2010 decade with the likes of Luck, Stafford et al….
Stafford is an interesting case. I think he has a real shot at HOF. He is only 27. He definitely is good enough to play another 10-11 years and easily 4 years of great play. He could get to #s such as 50k-55k passing yards and 350 TDs. I wouldn’t be shocked if more in each. All depends if he can return to his 2011 self.
Larry Fitzgerald with 3 receiving TDs today. He passes Isaac Bruce for 11th all time. He is now 8 away from 100. His HOF stock keeps rising.
Also Paul, Russell Wilson has a chance at being a HOF worthy player. He has started 2 SBs in his first 3 seasons(only ever to do so), winning 1. He isn’t known for passing , but he has the 2nd most passing TDs in first 2 seasons of career. Only behind Dan Marino. He is 1 of the highest rated QBs in postseason history. He will have 1,500 attempts for career this year. He already has a passer rating of 98.3 for career; probably going to add to that after tonight. That would be 2nd all time if he had 1,500 now. His rushing is going to help his case a lot for HOF.
I tend to be cautious when it comes to predicting likely HOF for any player with only a few years in the league. Give me a player with multiple All Pro/Pro Bowls by year 5 and then perhaps, but still usually wait until 7 or 8 seasons. NFL is full of great rookies and early career players that flame out pretty fast whether it be injuries, lack of supporting cast, team or organizational issues, lack of motivation, unwillingness to attempt and continue hard work – aka RGIII.
Wilson has more SB wins than RGIII playoff wins. Russell has a bigger body of work.
A cursory look at Big Ben’s stats suggest he’s doing a lot better then Eli in regular-season stats thus far over his career. If it comes down to one of these two, the former looks to have a stronger case. In fact, if Eli doesn’t improve his regular-season level of play, he may play himself out of the HoF despite his two SB wins. He’ll have players like Phillip Rivers, Tony Romo, and Matthew Stafford as competition and if any of them end up with sufficiently good regular-season stat cases, they might overtake him.
I was not directly comparing Wilson to RGIII, just pointing out how fast an hot early career start and go off the rails, hence I prefer 5-7 year body of HOF caliber work.
I agree, I want to see more years played. But, Wilson is on pace to have a serious case.
I agree on Big Ben. I think the offensive system Big Ben has played under at times in Career did hurt his stats. Big Ben is impressive to me considering the Steelers were a running time at times during his career.
I have hard time seeing Tony Romo getting inducted into the Hall of Fame. The problem with Romo is the games he missed due to injuries that will be adding up more with a broken Collarbone.
I actually like Philip Rivers on the regular season and I think he’s going to canton at somepoint. Philip right now is at 350 to 400 career touchdown rate when his career ends. I like him better than Eli Manning. While Eli Manning has better stats due to Rivers being back to Brees on his first couple seasons, Rivers is the more accurate passer. Eli’s career completion percentage isn’t that great in the era he’s been playing in. The reason Chargers haven’t went to Super Bowl under Rivers could be pointed to Norv Turner and Nate Kaeding. I blame Nate to point because he was much more accurate kicker during the regular season the playoffs and did cost the Chargers some playoff games.
Being a Jet fan, I know Nate Kaeding all too well! If Rivers can play another 4-5 seasons, he could definitely get to 350-400 TDs. Is that enough to get him in? Not sure, but would be hard to pass on him.
Romo has some of the greatest efficiency stats of all time. If he wins a Super Bowl he’s in. If he doesn’t then he probably isn’t. Rivers is in the same boat.
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Even with the teams’ SBs I don’t think either Eli or Ben should be considered Canton locks. Regardless, certainly Rivers and/or Romo, who both have much better stats, leapfrog them with SB wins of their own.
Eli and Ben are 100 TDs apiece away from being locks. No way voters pass them up with 2 SB wins and that many TDs.
100 TDS is a long way away, and right now neither Eli or Ben are even in the top 100 in career TDs despite playing in the most stat inflated era ever.
Ben has a better chance than Eli. While most of his stats are unspectacular for the era, they range from solid to very good in certain places. He still just has 3 Pro Bowls though, and won those 2 SBs with a defense carried team in the parity era.
Eli has a 59% career completion percentage, atrocious for his era (below the NFL average), an unimpressive 82.5 career passer rating (around average for his era), has led the NFL in interceptions 3 seasons, and, like Ben, only has 3 Pro Bowls and won parity era SBs on teams that were carried by their defense.
Obviously I meant to say neither are currently in the top 10 in career TDs.
I like Ben as his career is still trending up. Eli who I once thought was on his way to Canton plays worse and worse as the seasons trickle by. He has won two Superbowls, but how many times has his team not even made the playoffs. Also, how close is Luck’s career paralleling Dan Marino’s. I cannot believe their GM has not paid more attention to supplying the Colts a defensive front seven that could boost them at least even with the Patriots. Speaking of the Patriots, but I am further convinced that Rob Gronkowski is the greatest TE that I have ever seen and it isn’t even close. I know we have had this discussion before, but if his career ended right now, he would be the Gale Sayers of TE’s.
Gronkowski has company in the great short-career TE universe in Todd Christensen.
Eli will be a starting QB for next 4-5 years in NFL after this year. Either for Giants or another team. Easily 5-6 teams would love to have Eli until he is 40(Browns, Jags ,etc). It will be hard for HOF to pass on someone with 40,000 yards, nearing 300 TDs and 2 SB MVPs. I’m not even a Giants fan the slighest, Gang Green 2-0!
Also, Eli’s consecutive start streak gets overlooked. He has started in 167 straight regular season games, 3rd all time for QBs, behind Brett Favre and Eli’s older brother.
Let’s be careful in assuming Eli (or many other QBs for that matter) will continue to play at a high level into their late 30s/40. Brady and Manning may be the few exceptions to the rule (as was Favre)
that’s very true paul excellent point
Although I agree with Paul and Robert Ewing that nothing should be taken for granted, most HOF caliber QBs play very well into their late 30s/40s: Elway, Marino, Moon, Montana, Young, Tarkenton, Tittle, etc. Therefore, if Eli, Ben, and Rivers are HOF caliber players then they should play very well late into their careers.
None of those QBs had top passing seasons after age of 37 (Montana topped out at age 34, Tarkenton at 35), so I would remain cautious that a possible HOF QB can add to their HOF quality seasons in their late 30s, and certainly none at the age of 40. Favre, Manning and Brady are exceptions especially considering that by the age of 35 all three had achieved HOF status – could have retired then and still been elected 1st ballot HOF. So what all three added past 35 only increased but did not secure their elections. I do not see Eli suddenly turning the corner with a huge uptick in passing numbers and stats and also very possible Romo and Rivers may soon peak – regardless those two still need SB win as in the SB era unless you can retire in top 3 in career QB numbers (eg. Tarkenton Fouts, Moon), going to be very hard to get into HOF coming from an era in which 4-5 other QBs are getting in first.
I think the strongest point of defining age to me was Favre, Peyton Manning, Brady, and Warren Moon.
Warren Moon had a top passing season when he was 39 years old in 1995. He had over 4,000 yards, 33 touchdown and only 14 interceptions in 1995. Warren also had a career high in completion percentage that year with 62.2 along with having a very good 91.5 passer rating. The only season Warren had a better passer rating than 1995 was in 1990.
The only thing to keep in Mind with 1995 with Warren Moon had Jake Reed and Cris Carter as his top 2 targets. Reed and Carter to me was either the best or 2nd t 1-2 Wide Receiver combo in the league in the 1994 to 1997 era. I saw a lot of Carter and Reed as a Packer Fan at that time.
John Elway was very good in his late 30’s, but he did miss games when was 38 years old. The catch with John is that he had great supporting casts in the 1996 to 1998 time period on the offensive side of the ball.
Dan Marino was not that great in his late 30’s although I thought his 1998 season was very good considering his offensive cast. His 1999 season was the worst of his career. Dan in 1999 had an injury plagued year and it appeared Dan lost arm strength that season and it looked weak matter of fact.
Dan had a good, not great season in 1998. The Problem with Marino’s from 1996 to 1998 was Jimmie Johnson’s system. Jimmie was running the football withe Dolphins although they didn’t the running back for it at the time. I didn’t know Dan Marino got the numbers he got in 1998 considering how the wide receiver core was on paper.
Looks another major change is coming to the HoF selection process for this year:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/09/27/hall-of-fame-will-announce-changes-to-selection-process/
Seems the PFHoF plans to include HoF members as part of the selection process in some way, details to be announced. I think this is a really lousy idea in any sense, since all I’ve ever seen when Hall members speak on the subject is to shill for former teammates. I think the regular selection process has worked really well the past several years with a few exceptions. So much for “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”
The Senior process is what needs serious tweaking, not this. Figures.
Depends in how they use HOF members, at what stage, and how many. They use HOF members as consultants in the final senior candidate selection, so perhaps that is the role intended for the modern selections. If they let some vote, the number (compared to the current 45 voters who are writers) will make the difference as 5 or less will have little impact. I believe this is the HOF Board’s response to the often complaining that with only writers voting what do they know about a game they never even played.
I understand it is very young in their careers, but Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, and AJ Green, among others, have chiseled great starts. I believe all 3 have decent shots at being future HOF contenders the way it is going.
Yeah, given the players’ terrible “100 Greatest Players” and Pro Bowl voting record, I’m not crazy about this. I think reforms are much needed, but should be along the lines of things like transparency, member tenure, and member selection.
Paul, good point about how the HoF members are used. Memories of the Frankie-Frisch-led BBHoF Veterans Committee abuses have me concerned, though. Hopefully, they’ll be restricted to an advisory-only role or have their numbers heavily watered-down if part of the voting committee.
And given that the bigger problem by far are the results of the Seniors process, it seems silly to be tweaking something that has worked really well so far. The Seniors process has been a major problem most years, with this year being arguably the worst yet. Yet there’s no move afoot to change things as far as I know.
I would be in favour of a rotating voting committee that featured a mix of retired players, front office members, and media members. I agree that getting ex-players involved is good, but they shouldn’t have a majority say. The baseball hall of fame is the best example (as bachslunch pointed out) of where giving ex-players too much power can just be a different form of the same problem. Their veterans committees in particular have swung over the past 50 years from letting everybody’s friends in to letting almost nobody in, and they have never really found a sweet spot.
In terms of transparency, I think that seeing vote counts, or percentage of votes in each round (preliminary to semi, semi to finalist, final 15 to final 10, final 10 to final 5) would be interesting, but anything beyond that would be overkill. I don’t see why anyone should have to justify their votes to the general public if they don’t want to. That type of thing can stay in the discussion room, and can be part of the privilege of being a voter.
I agree that it’s the seniors committee that has been dropping the ball more often than not lately. I think the modern-era committee has done a great job over the last several years, though switching up the bodies to prevent lasting biases from staying on the panel isn’t a bad idea (if that is what ends up being proposed).
Larry Fitzgerald has solidified himself as a HOFer. 40% of his TDs have been from Josh McCown,John Skelton, Kevin Kolb,Matt Leinart, Derek Anderson,Brian St. Pierre,Max Hall, Richard Bartel,John Navarre, and Shaun King. The other 60% is from Kurt and Palmer in the latter part of their careers(still very good players). Carson Palmer has had an underrated career. He looks like he can play another 4-5 years. Not saying he will make the HOF but if Cardinals win a SB, which they look like 1 of the few teams on the short list that can win this year, his resume would push for enshrinement someday. He would need to stay healthy first and sustain success. But, for argument sake, would if he ends up with 300+ TDs, 45-50k in passing yards, and a SB win; would he make the HOF? All realistic the way it is looking. A lot of QBs with first ballot/ locks for enshrinement and fringe HOF careers; Mannings, Brady, Brees, Aaron Rodgers,Big Ben, Rivers, Romo, Palmer is up there.
71% of Jerry Rice’s TD passes came from Montana and Young, to put it in prospective. Including very good QBs in Rich Gannon and Jeff Garcia, 84% of Rice’s TDs came from those QBs. I am not saying Fitz is better. I am simply showing how he deserves the HOF.
“I don’t see why anyone should have to justify their votes to the general public if they don’t want to. That type of thing can stay in the discussion room, and can be part of the privilege of being a voter.”
I disagree in the strongest possible terms, BSLO. The HoF doesn’t exist for the sake or glory of selection voters. I see no valid reason why they should be privileged with a secret ballot. The closest argument one could make is to avoid public pressure, but I’m more concerned about private corruption. If a voter opposes enshrining a locally popular player then he should come out and publicly lay his argument out. If he has valid reasons he’ll probably persuade a lot of people. If he fails to, then maybe he shouldn’t be “representing” that city anyway. After all, to induct someone one ultimately has to persuade the other voters, who each have their own local fan base to worry about it. At least with a transparent system one would know where every selection voter stood.
I do agree that the senior selections have been unacceptably bad lately. I have my issues with modern selection but it hasn’t been anywhere near as bad.
I think the corruption issue would likely be minimized by having a rotating committee with short, set terms…one that spread the voices out among different facets of the game (retired players, coaches, front office members and media members), and had nothing to do with cities. I think that the “one per NFL city” rule is ridiculous myself. I know it’s done to balance the bias, but I would rather the voters be pushing for who they believe are the best players, not the best players from the team they covered. I often wonder what the Houston Texans writer does every year while the Raiders, Steelers, and Broncos guys consistently have presentations to make on players from their cities.
My strongest argument in favour of keeping some secrecy is not public pressure, but rather that I don’t think it improves the voting process at all. It only serves to satisfy public curiosity. People will believe that there is corruption no matter what the results are…it’s a staple comment on every message board that discusses any hall of fame, and pulling back the curtain on the entire process would just lead to more questions than answers, stupid conspiracy theories and pointless voter bashing that would take the focus away from the most important thing, which is the actual inductees.
There are a ton of baseball writers that release their ballots publicly, and it does absolutely nothing to improve what is currently the worst hall of fame selection process in major sports. I may be in the minority, but I don’t think everything needs to be completely transparent. I think there’s a line where it becomes counter-productive, and releasing everybody’s ballot every step of the way is where I would draw the line.
Sorry, I meant to I meant to say my strongest argument against full transparency is that I don’t think it improves the voting process at all.
Conspiracy theories thrive now because of the pointless secrecy. I’m not sure how removing the city element (ending geographical balance) would eliminate or even reduce bias. If anything there’s a good chance it would increase northeast bias since that’s where most of the media is concentrated.
Voter “bashing” wouldn’t be pointless if it’s well reasoned and leads to positive change. Transparency might broaden the discussion, include more interested minds, and increase the number of sound points being made. People shouldn’t be snobby. Not all fans are stupid. In fact, I haven’t been overly impressed with the selectors or sports journalists in general. I’m not sure many of these voters are noticeably above average intelligence.
I haven’t closely followed the baseball process, but your comment indicates that publicly releasing their choices is a voluntary decision each voter makes, not a universal rule.
In all fairness, you make some good arguments for transparency, so I will leave that one alone.
I think the city element makes sense at the present moment, because only writers are currently involved in the voting process. If the voting body were diversified, and writers represented say for example 10 of 50 members, city affiliation would be an unnecessary consideration. The hockey, basketball and NASCAR halls are voted on by rotating voting bodies of various sizes, and they seem to make pretty good decisions year after year on hall of fame votes. The biggest snubs in the hockey hall are mostly from the past 5-10 years, and are mostly attributed to a huge glut of worthy players that retired around the time of the 2004-05 lockout. Basketball’s hall has few significant snubs from any era, as they involve subcommittees that focus solely on presenting nominees from pools of international players, the ABA, women’s basketball, and the early era of the professional leagues. NASCAR’s hall is new, and they admittedly are still working their way through the obvious choices, but they’ve done a solid job so far as well.
I think that the geographical balance makes sense to a degree, but I disagree that because a writer represents an area, it’s their duty to promote the best unelected players from their team for the hall. That is bias in a different form, and may force someone to make a half-hearted argument that they don’t agree with or feel passionate about. If for example, Rick Gosselin doesn’t push as hard for Darren Woodson, because he believes John Lynch and Steve Atwater are better candidates, I don’t see a problem with that. It’s far more objective, and in my opinion would lead to a better overall decision being made.
I don’t know if it’s the case for sure, but my guess is that the balancing of the cities among the voting body was introduced because 30-40 years ago, it was entirely possible that someone could cover a team for 20+ years, and only see a potential hall of famer on a different team play once or twice. The introduction of things like the Internet, the Sunday ticket TV package, and the NFL’s more balanced schedule have drastically decreased the chances of a tenured writer having no knowledge or opinion of a borderline hall of fame player. It’s very difficult these days for a player to sneak up or slip by anyone, because there is almost always someone in the media ready to take the “underrated” angle on an overlooked player.
All of this is mostly nitpicking on my part though. I think the modern-era voting process has worked very well recently, especially since 2008 when they finally got on board with consistently inducting 5 guys a year. The biggest current snubs are players that are early into their eligibility like Marvin Harrison and Orlando Pace (which makes perfect sense), and they haven’t inducted an unworthy player in a very long time.
I’m interested to see how the hall has decided to incorporate hall of fame players into their voting process, but I agree with others that say that it should be minimal.
Regarding city representation, you’re forgetting that it takes more than one voter to enshrine a candidate. So what if each voter strongly supports the local players? They still have to convince the others to go along. What’s unfair is the current system where some cities (I’d guess most) have representatives who enthusiastically promote local players while others, including, it seems, Rick Gosselin (a Michigan transplant with no discernible affinity for the Cowboys), don’t, and even enthusiastically boost players from other cites, like in their original home states. That creates an unbalance. Transparency and some other reforms (how the selectors are chosen and/or term limits) could mitigate that.
Of course you were specifically talking about geographic balance there, which is important because the skew would likely be even worse without it. Look how the Big 12 got screwed by the “playoff” committee last year, a 13 member committee that somehow lacks a single person from Texas or Oklahoma, arguably the most important football region in the country. The SEC and other conferences were well represented, but the only official I recall with Big 12 ties was a West Virginia guy, WV being a recent conference addition and a geographical outlier.
Representation matters.
Rasputin: I agree with some of your points, but it is really hard to argue that the Big XII somehow was aggrieved last year when the fourth place team, Ohio State, that “replaced” Baylor/TCU steamrolled to the title. Moreover, while I understand your concerns, I tend to disagree. Voters should vote with honesty and integrity with as little bias as possible (zero is impossible), and last year’s college national championship confirms this point. Geographic bias is just as bad as any other.
The biggest bias that I see in the current voting system is the one in favor of the best “story,” which is a natural inclination for media members. For example, whether or not you agree that Bettis should be a HOFer (personally, I’m lukewarm), I think we all agree that he has a “story” and personality that is compelling. Another example is Ricky Jackson finally gaining attention (which I think was long overdue) once New Orleans made the Super Bowl — made for a good story. Another example would be the “Year of the Redskins” when Art Monk and Darrell Green got inducted together (which was fantastic for us Redskins fans, but still the story bias concerns me).
A second bias that I see from media members is that they tend to vote for other members of the media. While I agree that Terrell Davis should be inducted, I often wonder if his chances are enhanced by being on NFL Network while guys like Ricky Watters and maybe Edgerrin James are forgotten as out of sight, out of mind. In fact, it seems like one of the best ways to make the hall of fame is to be on TV. For example, compare Rayfield Wright and Dan Dierdorf. They had remarkably similar careers. Both primarily played tackle during the 1970s. Both made 6 pro bowls and 3 all pros. Wright’s career AV (from pro-football-reference) is 82. Dierdorf’s is 79. Wright was first team on the “1970s all decade team.” Dierdorf was on the second team (although their vote totals were almost identical 12 to 11). Yet, Dierdorf, an announcer on MNF, was a finalist in 1990, 1992, 1994, 1995, and inducted in 1996. Wright was first a finalist in 2004 and inducted in 2006. Both were qualified. The difference in the speed of their inductions is hard to example other than the media members voting for a well-liked member of their profession.
That said, adding former players and/or front office executives will only create new biases. Now, that might be a good thing. New voices, new biases, new opinions might help the overall voting process. In fact, I think the best resource might be former coaches (not just head coaches but also coordinators and position coaches) who had to game plan against the candidate players and therefore know their strengths and weaknesses.
In the end, however, the process is going to be biased. We will argue from year to year who should get in, but in the long view, it tends to work. When my ten year old asks me if Art Monk is a HOFer, he doesn’t care if he took 8 years or was a first ballot guy. I don’t believe many people think Darrell Green was better than Night Train Lane just because he went in on the first ballot, while Lane took four. Both are well-qualified HOFers. That is enough. I like the process as it is, but I’ll also probably like it with former players having a role. The only thing I don’t like are the inevitable screams (not on this board, where the posters are fantastic) from those fans that claim it is a travesty that “Player X” didn’t make. But then I also remember how personally offended I was when my childhood hero, Art Monk, was passed over, year after year. I almost gave up hope when Roger Wehrli came out of nowhere to claim a spot in 2007. But, in the end, Art Monk was inducted in 2008 and I got to give him an 8 minute ovation after watching Darrell Green being inducted earlier in the night. Fandom has no rationality, that is what makes it so much fun.
Justin, TCU had the best team in the country by last season’s climax. Alabama, perennially overrated, was the team that didn’t belong in the final four. They really had no impressive wins over ranked teams and almost lost multiple games against mediocre teams, but automatically leaped back to the top after knocking off then #1 Miss. State (also overrated) by 5 points because they’re “BAMA!” and are in the SEC. For years I’ve badly wanted a Big 12 team to get the chance to have a clean postseason shot at Alabama and show how overrated and vulnerable they are to dynamic offenses with a thorough dismantling (ever since Texas fans were robbed of getting to see Colt McCoy do it as it looked like they would early on before his freak injury). OU physically whipped Alabama a couple of years ago but it wasn’t for the national title. Ohio State got that chance first. TCU had to settle for obliterating Ole Miss.
It’s a shame OSU and TCU didn’t get to play each other last year to truly settle it on the field, especially since neither team looks as good so far this year (TCU has lost most of the starters from its great defense last year and even most of its new starters this year and OSU has struggled mightily against weak competition while searching for answers at QB) so it won’t the be the same if they do get to play each other this year (which they might, since no team across the country really looks dominant this season yet). The real solution is to have a true playoff by expanding to 8 teams so every power 5 conference champion is in along with 3 wild cards. That way every major conference is represented and all the top contenders are included. The only committee decision and potential hand wringing would be over marginal dark horse candidates, so I reject the slippery slope “well then people would just want to keep expanding it” argument. Eight participants is perfect for the collegiate playoff.
Back to the NFL, I suspect you’re right about media bias, though that’s more likely to explain why someone’s included than excluded. Rayfield Wright was a victim of the well documented anti-Cowboys bias when it was at its peak in the 80s/90s. It still exists, which is why Chuck Howley, Cliff Harris, and Drew Pearson still aren’t in the HoF, but I think it’s eroded to a smaller clique than it used to be with voter turnover and years of people, including some non Cowboys fans, shining light and criticism on it. Given that bias I have absolutely no interest in having media figures be voters if there isn’t geographical balance. The bias would still be there, just more concentrated.
I agree that there will always be some type of bias involved, but light is the best disinfectant I know of. I’m not sure how well the current system is working when we’ve seen so many players inducted posthumously. The growing age of deserving senior candidates, combined with the process moving in the wrong direction with the recent robbing of senior slots to get contributors in, doesn’t portend well.
if anything the place where the hof players can help the selections process is in the senior nominations somebody said that and i agree
Okay, just saw this post and am amazed to see multiple commenters agree with Tony that Kurt Warner will make it two QBs selected in the same year. Has the HOF selected two modern-era candidates from the same position, any position, with at least one not being first-ballot since 2006? Have we already forgotten that the reason we all thought the HOF held off on inducting Reed, Carter, or Brown for so long was not because they felt they had to wait, as Tony thinks was the case and uses to minimize Harrison’s chances, but because they couldn’t agree on which of the three to induct first? It’s not like there’s any sort of rush to get Warner in now – I don’t think a single HOF-worthy QB has retired since Favre. (Now if the injury that ended Peyton Manning’s Colts career had ended his NFL career, then you might have seen the Hall induct two QBs in the same year.) The obvious prediction to make for this year’s class is to take last year’s 6-10 finishers and swap out Warner for Favre (in other words, replacing Warner with Harrison in Tony’s list or Johnson with Dungy in Andy’s, or taking the pick Football Outsiders makes in the link above verbatim). I think I agree with Andy that any break from that is most likely to come in Dungy’s spot.
I can see those 2 QBs going in. I would love to see Roger Craig and Terrell Davis going in together. Highly unlikely. Most likely going in separate times. Edgerrin should get in within next 4-5 years(along with Zach Thomas). Edge is well deserved. Zach has a strong 5/7/00s resume. Edge has a 3/4/00s but his stats really show us how good he was: 2 rushing titles, with 7 1k rushing yard seasons, 4 seasons of 1,500 or more, not many have done that(Eric Dickerson and Barry Sanders off top of my head) also add in good receiving with 433 receptions, 3,364 yards. Very good resume for HOF. I truly believe Shaun Alexander deserves to get in as well. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/all_td_career.htm Looking at the top total TD leaders, he is 14th all time. Everyone from 1-13 is in or will get in (LT, TO, Randy Moss) and everyone from 15-24 are or will get in(Fitz, Gates,Tony G).He will be the only one in top 24 not in. Now, not saying that is why he should get in, but definitely helps him getting enshrined.
I see Warner’s chances for the 2016 HOF as 50/50 with some voters still questioning the middle 1/2 of his career with terrible numbers, that may be enough to postpone his election at least one more year (keeping in mind it takes 80% of votes to move a candidate through each stage from 15 to 10 to 5 and to election, so does not take many to derail a candidate). To me Favre, Greene, Pace and Harrison are the most likely – and in that order of best odds – with a tight 5th spot between Dungy and Warner, but since Dungy has been a finalist, and final 10 candidate longer, I am giving him the edge. Given quality of remaining finalists from the last few years (and comments from voters and media about the quality of the depth of finalists in recent elections, including those not yet elected) I see it very unlikely for any other 1st time player or returning 25 semi-finalist to break through to election. Plenty of apparent openings in 2017-2019 to get those others elected. I view 2016 much like recent elections – chance to elect deserving candidates who have advanced but not been elected in recent years.
agreed with you totally on everything you said paul spot on
Paul
Only the final 5 need an 80% yes vote for election. The cut to 10 and then 5 is done by simply selecting the 10/5 you want to see advance into the next round.
Brad.
No to Alexander. Good player but failed to reach 10k and his high TD volume can be attributed to the luxury of running behind Jones and Hutchinson. See Priest Holmes and briefly Larry Johnson behind Roaf and Shields as a case study.
Still takes majority of voters to select candidates for final 10 and final 5, so out of 45 or so voters it does not take that many in pure numbers to derail a candidate. But without knowing the % of voters that each candidate receives from the 15-10 and 10-5 cut down votes it is hard to really know how many candidates get votes and how many votes they have, especially those close but not successful in advancing to the next round. As for those 5 left behind from 15 to 10, and then the 5 from 10 to 5, we know who they are, but not the number of votes they received (i.e. who was closest but not advanced). For example, among the final 10 from 2015 with Greene, Pace, Harrison, Dungy and Warner, we have no idea who was closest to election and who was the furthest (who is moving up towards ultimate election versus those not).
Agree that the totals for each round of voting should be published. Hopefully those changes are coming soon.
Even though he theoretically has a good chance at induction in 2016, I’d be surprised if Warner was part of the class. As others have mentioned, Favre is obviously getting in so there’s already a better choice at his position. Secondly, I really don’t think I’d take him over either Pace or Harrison, and I think it’s highly unlikely that Kevin Greene doesn’t get inducted after finishing as the only non-inducted defensive player in the final 10 last year. With the hall potentially inducting two other offensive players (including another QB) as seniors, I don’t think that the last spot goes to Warner. They have put a pretty large emphasis on balancing both sides of the ball lately when choosing classes.
Dungy is the obvious pick for the last choice, and wouldn’t be a surprise. I wouldn’t rule out John Lynch or Morten Andersen making a big jump to induction though. Lynch is the clear number 2 defensive player in terms of momentum, and Andersen stands alone as the only special teams player anywhere near induction. I don’t think he will face the road blocks Ray Guy did, because his standing as a member of two all-decade teams, and the all-time leader in games played and points scored is both very significant and impossible to ignore.
I’m crossing my fingers that Steve Atwater jumps to the finalist stage this year. There’s quite a few good DB’s becoming eligible in the next few years, so I hope he can get some momentum before they get on the ballot.
I also would like to see Steve Atwater make a significant jump. The safeties have been largely ignored forever. There are quite a few safeties in the Senior Pool that need to be advanced. The last thing I want to see is players like Atwater, Lynch and Woodson entering the Senior pool.
Would be about time to see a Safety make the move into the final 10.
I actually visited the PFHOF today while in the area after business trip, when was the last time others on the Board were there?
Paul
I visited the PFHOF in June 2013.
I have been 10 or so times in the last 20 years, including a few times since the last major renovation, which is basically almost complete overhaul including new entrance to a much more modern look with amenities and additional spaces for meetings, events and for the annual enshrinement activities, plus the new archives. Beautiful Hall with plenty to see and do, with a large number of items on display (compared to other type facilities that tend to minimize showing items), they do a great job highlighting the newest members and many of the other big name HOFers, and the bust galley is fantastic. On Sunday morning yesterday I spent time there all by myself as very few others in the Hall at that time of day this time of year. HOF sure has changed from a more basic sort of simple type of attraction to much larger, corporate and of course hi tech. Both have their appeals, and even after much recent millions spent still some underutilized space and outdated displays. Plenty of improvements, including better signage and tour routing could be made within existing building space. Also attended several of the enshrinements from the days on the outside steps of the Hall to more recent stadium events, but not since 2010 and now the pricing, ticket packages and over all corporate view of the event (plus parking and crowds) are a huge drawback for me personally. HOF is really pushing the high value weekend and event packages now, and holding individual tickets back until close to event with terrible seating. Stadium itself is under large rebuilding project which was long needed for its HOF and the game but for the local teams that use it. With Favre in 2016 you will certainly not see me within 100 miles of Canton next August, as many overpriced hotels are already booked up and the crowds will be massive.
I have never been to football HOF but I plan on going this spring. I have been to the baseball HOF a number of times and heard the football HOF is just as nice.
I have never been to Cooperstown so I can not make a comparison, but overall PFHOF is pretty nice, but $24 adult admission + $10 parking!!! Watch for ticket discounts online or in via various local tourism materials. You could easily spend 2-3 hrs as there is plenty to look over.
semifinalists should be coming within the next few weeks any surprises
I would like to see guys like Albert Lewis and Joe Jacoby make the semifinalist list. I think they have both done it once before
I am thinking that 20-22 slots are easily predicable leaving space for a few surprises – but unlikely any of those final few make into down to the final 15 list in mid January. Not a large number of quality 1st time candidates,.but the pool of returning finalists is pretty good making hard for anyone besides Favre and TO to make final 15.
Does anyone see Steve Tasker making the semi’s? It is a very loaded ballot.
Also, Charles Woodson said he wants to play until 50 with Raiders. He is leading NFL in INTs this year with 4 thus far. I could see him playing another 2-3 years. If he plays until he is 42-43 then he could actually challenge the INT record that seems to be very hard to surpass(81 by Paul Krause). He is 17 away from tying it. .
I really don’t think Steve Tasker has a chance making it into the semi’s.
As far as Charles Woodson goes, I don’t see him breaking Paul Krause’s record. At some point Charles skills really have to decline as safety and he’s 39 already although he’s doing great this season. He’s a young 39 compare to Peyton Manning. Remember 2 of Charles 4 interceptions this season came from a declining Peyton Manning.
The position Charles plays is why I don’t think he can play long enough tie Paul Krauses 81 interceptions. The 2002 to 2005 era of Charles career is what is hurting his odds for the record now. The only way Charles odds improve is by getting 7 to 10 more interceptions this season. I know Charles could be getting more interceptions this year with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ted Bridgewater, Stafford, Mariota, and a 2nd time with Peyton Manning coming up.
I don’t Charles is going have 7 to 10 more interceptions this season, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he gets another 4 or 5 interceptions this season based on the Quarterbacks I mentioned.
It seems like a long shot, I will say that, but if he does play into his 40s, getting the record is realistic. He will probably sign a 2 year deal and go from there.
Andy should forget Jimmy Johnson and Tony should forget Tony Dungy. Harrison and Warner should be added to Favre, Pace, and Greene. There is your five Hall Of Fame picks.
I have said all along that the chances for Warner in 2016 are likely 50/50, but with two other likely elected QBs in Farve and Stabler, now thinking that having 3 QBs in a class with 7 players may not be a route HOF voters choose: put 2015 and 2014 final 10 candidate Dungy in and save Warner to 2017.
Agreed with what paul said
Warner looks like a lock to make it within next 2-3 years(QBs are perhaps the highest praised player in NFL for HOF. They trump a lot of other positions). Just like what Paul said, Favre and Stabler will most likely get in this year. We have had past class(es) with 2 QBs but not 3 if not mistaken. As for coaches, I wouldn’t mind Jimmy Johnson and Tony Dungy in. Both have the body of work to be in.
I think it is hard for the HOF voters to give 2 of the 7 slots to coaches instead of players. Many voters have a difficult time considering one coach over a player, so doubt they would ever advance 2 coaches into the final 10, certainly not the final 5. Both Dungy and Johnson will get in, Dungy perhaps this year as recent elections have him set up for election first, but at any rate both are getting in within next few years. In recent years the voters appear to have been setting candidates to advance hence my feeling based on that approach that Harrison, Pace, and Greene are positioned for 2016 election as they have been advanced and have the longest waits as finalists.
Coaches should have their own separate category. That is the only way to consider them fairly.
I wasn’t suggesting both get in. I was saying I don’t mind both in as in the future.
I think there is more of chance three QB’s get in then two coach’s.. If I were to vote for a coach I would pick Johnson based on his ability to coral that group of knuckleheads (talented knuckleheads) into a dominant team. I would put Dungy in one of the two following classes..
How many think Zach Thomas will make the semi finalist? I am 1.
Brad: Zach Thomas’s lack of support for the HOF is really surprising. He has all of the credentials. While I remember him as “overrated” that is only because I didn’t believe he was the second coming of Dick Butkus as some in the media indicated. I certainly support his inclusion in the semifinalists, and I bet he would have a decent chance of progressing very close to induction (if not being inducted) given the relatively few returning defensive candidates.
His resume and the fact he hasn’t been named to the Semi’s is glaring. 5/7/00s and 1 year he made AP but no PB so I kind of view it as 5/8/00s.
There is a combination of things on why Zach hasn’t didn’t go to the semifinalists yet. Zach in his era was overlooked by players like Ray Lewis and Brian Urlacher.
I think he was hurt by not being used as pass rusher and people thought Jason Taylor was the best player on the Dolphins defense.
I think Zach is going make it the semi-Final this year or next year due to the quality of pass rushers on the ballot is down. The Hall of Fame isn’t getting a player that is going to have over 140 career sacks anytime soon. After Jason Taylor and Kevin Greene, the pass rushers are going into players like Neil Smith and Leslie O’Neal. I would pick Zach Tomas over Neil Smith and Leslie O’Neal in terms of Hall of Fame voter.
There is a gap between more great rushers getting on the ballot on the first time before from Jason Taylor to John Abraham. I thought Leslie O’Neal was very good pass rusher as a defensive lineman, but I thought he got overlooked by players like Reggie White, Bruce smith, Charles Haley, Richard Dent Chris Doleman and later on John Randle.
Leslie O’Neal (0/6/none) and Neil Smith (1/6/90s) may be the two best pass rushing DEs not to get in the HoF. Or there’s an outside chance one or both could be Senior nominees way down the road.
Agreed bach s on smith and o neal why they haven’t gotten more support is a mystery
I think with all the recent effort by HOF voters to select pass rushers from the 1980s and 90s, O’Neil and Smith has been passed over and lacking all pro selections and now the focus on other defensive positions (LB and DB), plus WRs from that era it may be some time if they ever see the finalist list.
I thought Leslie O’Neal was an excellent pass rusher and should be considered as a legitimate chance for the HOF. Every bit as good as Dent, Haley and Dean.
No all pro, no all decade and no SB are going to hurt O’Neil’s HOF chances for a very long time. perhaps he is the next best pass rushing candidate from the 1990s era, but he is also up against many more qualified players at other positions. His numbers just do not match up well against the recent HOF elected pass rushers.
Agreed with Paul. Neil Smith’s all-decade team membership and single 1st team all-pro selection will likely give him an edge over Leslie O’Neal — though O’Neal’s sheer number of sacks, 132.5, good for 11th all-time) might get him a Senior nomination far down the road. Smith is no slouch in the total sack department at 104.5, which ties him for 26th all time. But I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for either to get elected, as it may well never occur. Wouldn’t surprise me if the voters decide to call a halt on inducting 80s-90s pass rushers after Kevin Greene gets in.
MY picks would be
WR Marvin Harrison
LB/DE Kevin Greene
S John Lynch
Coach Tony Dungy
QB Brett Favre
Dungy gets in because John Madden is in. I don’t think he’ll wait as long. Harrison is undeniable. Think what you will about Lynch’s skill set he and Greene were huge impact players where ever they played. Greene is long over due and now that Haley is in it clears his way. Anything less than 1st ballot would be a huge snub for Favre.
Tony- No Orlando Pace?
Pace was in the final 10 for 2015, I do not see Lynch making the jump in 2016 from 2015 finalist (not final 10 selection) over Pace for election. The HOF recently has loved selecting all decade multiple all pro/pro bowl OL and Pace is next in line and I see no reason my voters having advancing him into the final 10 in 2015 skip over his selection – unless it comes from another 2015 final 10 candidate. I do think Lynch is deserving but with how HOF voters treat Safeties I see him in the next tier and very possible he makes it to the final 10 in 2016 but not election yet.
The amount of All pro’s for Neil Smith and Leslie O’Neal is easy to see why. The best way to put it is I doubt Dwight Freeney would have got all 3 of his first team all pro’s if he played in the same era as Reggie White and Bruce Smith.
Reggie White and Bruce Smith in their primes were almost automatic first team all pro’s. There hasn’t been any player yet that is close to them in sacks that didn’t get their start in the 1980’s.
I do think Leslie O’neal Hall of Fame odds were hurt more than the amount of all pro’s. He missed almost 2 years of playing football due a devastating knee injury he had in 1986. That knee injury prevented him from getting an additional 10 to 19 more sacks in his career instead of having 132.5 career sacks.
I am guessing the amount of sacks since he missed anywhere from 22 to 25 games between 1986 to the end of the 1988 season with me figuring a player that was in his prime from 1986 to 1995. .I didn’t get an exact amount of games due to the 87 strike
Injuries and competing for all pro and pro bowl teams against other future HOFers is an issue for many players waiting for selection to the HOF, just a few of the factors that made election challenging as it should be. Plenty of really good deserving players among the best from their era are waiting and some never elected (there are plenty of pre 1990 all decade team members not yet in the HOF. I am not suggesting this is (or should be) a limit to a number of players from one position from an era, but there gets to a point at 5 or 6 perhaps when I am sure voters start asking themselves how many more could there be from one era?
Brett Favre pretty much has a bust made already. Orlando Pace not on your induction list is a bit shocking.
My too early prediction:
1. Favre
2. Pace
3. Harrison
4. Greene
5. Zach Thomas
I know it sounds crazy, but the more I think about Brad’s question regarding Thomas’s chances, the more I think he could jump above other candidates like Leroy Selmon and Ricky Jackson. If Thomas gets in that room (and that is a big if), it is going to be very difficult to not elevate him above guys with questions for whatever reason (Warner, Davis, Owens), coaches (Dungy, Johnson), special teamers (Anderson) and defensive players with less impressive post season honors (Lynch, Atwater).
um Justin selmon and Jackson are in the hall of fame
Great debates on here. I think that Zach Thomas is one of the most likely players to jump to the semi-finalist stage this year, and it’s entirely possible that a quick jump to the finalist list would be in order. He is in my opinion the best holdover on the preliminary list that hasn’t made it to the next round before.
Aside from Greene (who will likely be inducted this year), there isn’t really a slam dunk player on the defensive side of the ball. The hall has been typically tough on safeties, and Karl Mecklenburg doesn’t really have much current momentum. Ty Law is a guy that might be able to gain some quick support as well, but other than his Super Bowl wins, he doesn’t have much of a case over Thomas. That said, I think that it’s way more likely that Thomas waits until after both Lewis and Urlacher get in.
I agree with Paul’s point that the modern era voters will likely to move on from 1990’s pass rushers after Greene is inducted. I’ve long been an advocate for Neil Smith’s induction, but I think he’ll have to wait until the senior pool. He hasn’t even garnered a preliminary nomination since his first year of eligibility. Leslie O’Neal in my opinion is close to Smith in terms of worthiness, but I would put him a small step behind. Working in Smith’s favour are his all-decade team nod as well as his two Super Bowl rings.
I think that both players have a decent chance at a future senior nomination mainly because of the lack of backlog at the DE position. Other than LC Greenwood, I don’t see any legitimate omissions in the senior pool. Joe Klecko and Marc Gastineau would probably be the next two in line, but they are a distant 2nd and 3rd.
I’d definitely add Gene Brito to the d-line Senior backlog, but otherwise agree with BLSO that Greenwood is the most deserving Senior left at the position (Brito would be my #2 choice). And also agreed that there aren’t a lot of serious snubs left on the d-line after that. Besides Gastineau and Klecko, one could maybe consider a few AFL guys like Houston Antwine, Tom Sestak, Earl Faison, or Tombstone Jackson here, plus perhaps Fred Smerlas. And folks at about this level like Ray Childress and Michael Dean Perry will fall into the Senior pool soon enough. But there are worse Senior omissions
Robert Ewing:
Admittedly my language wasn’t the clearest, but my point was that Zack Thomas could be inducted in his first year as a finalist even though he had to wait several years to be a finalist, like Selmon and Jackson.
I would be careful about the prospects of any player who ends up in the seniors pool as it is very deep and hard to get out of, there are all decade team players from before 1980s still treading water in there. Odds are many will never get out, not a promising place for any player
I see PFHOF has completely revamped their website and I can no longer final the annual lists of finalists.
“Heroes of the game”
“CANTON, THE CITY THAT BEGINS WITH “CAN!””
Ugh. Sounds like a lame political campaign slogan. Someone was trying really hard to justify his or her job. Whoever did that revamp wasn’t concerned with research. Info took a back seat to giant pictures. Apparently one can no longer scroll up and down a page with all the HoFers broken down by teams. You’ve got to go to each team on a separate page and scroll around to see all the names because of the big pictures, and in my first quick glance at least I didn’t notice any “significant” player demarcation. The marginally attached players are listed right alongside the team’s significant contributors with no clear distinction made.
Raising money was clearly a focus. I can support that, but is it necessary to throw “shop” in your face under just about every picture on every page?
And despite the revamp the site STILL didn’t fix the error on the 1990s all decade team where Boselli is listed as 2nd team OT instead of 1st team. Or at least I’m assuming it’s an error, since Clark Judge and some others on the Talk of Fame site assured me it was.
Terrible revamp.
Normally I wouldn’t be overly optimistic about someone entering the senior’s pool, but with how shallow the field is at defensive end, I like Neil Smith’s chances at an eventual nomination. The Hall tends to hit just about every position within an 8-10 year period, and while there are a lot of eligible all-decade team members that aren’t in the hall of fame, only 3 played defensive end: Greenwood, Smith, and Harvey Martin.
Greenwood seems destined for a nomination soon with the Hall focusing on guys that have been in the room before. I would say that he has at least a decent chance of being inducted before Smith hits the senior pool. Martin had one of the best years ever for a defensive player in 1977, but is likely held back by the fact that outside that year, he only made 3 Pro Bowls, and didn’t finish with an outstanding sack total (114 unofficially) that would offset it.
Gene Brito is admittedly someone that I overlooked. For some reason, I thought he was a defensive tackle. I’d probably slot him in at #2 as well with Smith at #3. The only AFL guy that I could see having a shot is Tombstone Jackson given that his accomplishments occurred during such a short career and he played an at an unquestionably elite level when he was healthy. The other guys like Faison, Antwine, etc. just feel like one of those very good AFL players that the senior committee always ignores.
Childress and Smerlas would likely bump near the top of the DT list once they hit the seniors pool, but I think the Neil Smith equivalent at DT is Michael Dean Perry. He’s another guy that never makes the preliminary list, yet would enter the senior pool as one of the biggest snubs at his position.
Ken Stabler and Ken Anderson have shown that being the biggest snubs at a position can work in your favour within the senior pool. They are both getting more consideration now than they did in the latter 10 years of their modern-era eligibility. The modern-era vote tends to go with more of a “best available” vote, while the senior nominations seem to be on more of a positional rotation basis.
Looked at the revamped PFHoF website, and agreed — it’s much, much worse. The finalist list by year was a very valuable part of this, and it’s gone. I also haven’t been able to find the various lists, which were extremely helpful. In fact, these were the only reasons I went to their site. Very hard to navigate, very confusing. And all the shopping stuff gets in your face major-league. Rasputin’s right — it stinks.
BLSO is definitely right about the DTs. Michael Dean Perry has the best profile at 5/6/none while Ray Childress and Fred Smerlas (who I think is already in the Senior pool) are both at 3/5/none. Those are actually better numbers than Joe Klecko at 2/4/none.
yes the HOF website along with the Hall and the annual enshrinement have all become more about marketing and corporate business and geared to raising money, especially for the new HOF Village development. And their website, like many others, is now designed more for tablets and phone – large photos and clickable links, then computer or traditional web display.
And for 2016 they are now asking for a non-refundable $25 reservation fee per ticket just to reserve a chance to then buy a ticket a full price, at $59-79 each (with fee not applicable to the ticket price). Or you take your chances that tickets will remain in early February after all the various presales, including expensive weekend packages..
Joe Klecko may not have the PBs and APs of the ones you mentioned, but he was very versatile. Nose Tackle, Defensive Tackle and End are 3 completely different positions and only a few in NFL history could have been as good as Joe at those 3. I am not a Giants fan the least bit(Jets) but Eli is now top 10 in passing TDs and needs 15 to pass Johnny Unitas for 9th., 1 more after that to pass Warren Moon and 10 more to pass John Elway fro 7th. Thoughts on his HOF stock as of now and the future? He could end up with 6th most, behind Favre, Brady, Peyton. Brees, and Marino. Think of that company.
I have though for a while that with two SB wins Eli has a decent chance even though some of his annual numbers plus lack of all pro/pro bowl would hurt him. But if he can end up in some of the top ten career passing records he has shot. However, may take awhile as he clearly falls behind Brady, Payton, Brees, Rodgers, and Ben R from the 2000s decade.
Tom Brady. Peyton Manning, Drew Brees , and Aaron Rodgers are first ballot HOFers. Of course they are superior to Eli. Ben Roethlisberger is going to he ahead of Eli for HOF pecking order. But, he won’t have another QB in his way besides Ben., unless Tony Romo and/or Phillip Rivers win a SB(s) and add to their career numbers. Next 3-4 years will say it all.
Brad,
Eli Manning passing Montana , Unitas, Moon in touchdowns actually doesn’t much. The problem lies in the era those two played due the difference in rules and how advanced the offensive scheme was.
The rules in the Unitas era catered to the defensive players more than offensive players. That is what made the Unitas stats impressive and Fran Tarkenton for that matter. What Unitas did was impressive in his era and I thought Johnny Unitas is way better than Eli Manning despite what the stats say.
The Montana era already had the Mel Blount rule, but the rules weren’t quite as pass friendly as they are now. What I said about Montana is true about Marino, Kelly, Moon, young, Elway and the early part of Brett’s career. Eli passing Moon isn’t much of a big deal considering Warren was almost 28 years old in 1984. Eli isn’t in the same level as Joe Montana and that is true with Elway, and Moon.
All you could do is compare Eli to other Quaterbacks in his era. Eli is a decent shot of getting inducted, but he shouldn’t be inducted right away unless there is bias due to market. Eli to me isn’t even close to his brother, Tom Brady, Brees, Rodgers, and Big Ben. Eli is in the same area as Rivers, and Romo. What hurts Eli is the passing percentage, not a lot of pro bowls, 0 1st time all pro, and the interceptions in the era he plays in. Eli has went to less pro bowls than Rivers has matter of fact.
The only advantage Eli has over Phillip is the 2 Super Rings. Eli and Phillip are close in Touchdowns despite Eli starting earlier in his career due to Rivers being the backup to Bree Brees.
I am going into detail on the era differences that make Eli stats less impressive compare to the Moon, Montana, Marino, Elway, Kelly, Young era. Most of the 1980’s and 1990’s, A great season by a QB was in the 25 to 30 touchdown range. Anything past 30 touchdowns was considered what a 45 to a 50 touchdown pass season is now. The problem wasn’t the quality of the quarterbacks in that era, but the rules were tougher for quarterbacks compare to now. It is such a pass friendly league now that Eli’s 30 touchdowns doesn’t have the same meaning as it did 25 to 30 years ago. Eli getting 30 touchdowns a season is a very good season, but its not as impressive as the 40 to 50 touchdowns in a season.
That is what made Dan Marino’s 1984 season incredible for its time for touchdowns and passing yards. The top quarterbacks in that era for completion percentage also hurts Eli due to the rules benefiting Eli more than it did for the 1980’s and 1990’s. The same issue with touchdowns is true with passing yards.
We use the SB wins as a debate tactic for QBs. He has more SB wins than Marino+Kelly+Moon+Unitas, who all have played in the SB era and Eli beat Brady in those wins; some say the best QB ever. Not saying Eli played against Brady on defense, but they were matched up in the SBs and Eli came out victorious in both, making clutch plays. Sure, David Tyree made that catch, but Eli made great throws in the other SB and was named MVP in both. I understand what this era is compared to others. But, being consistent is why Eli will make the HOF. He has easily another 3-4 seasons of playing at a good level. Not making him out to be a top 10-12 QB ever. He is, HOF caliber though.
In my opinion Neil Smith was an All-Pro level player but a marginal HOFamer. I like Joe Klecko, Harvey Martin, Gene Brito, Leslie O’Neal and L.C. Greenwood a little more. Smith for me is in the Charles Mann, Ray Childress, Ed “Too Tall” Jones category. Some really good moments, but other times when they really under produced.
I know Eli Manning has those 2 Super Bowl wins… but I would take Romo, Rivers and even Newton over him in a second.
While Johnny Unitas played the Super bowl era, most of his prime wasn’t in that era. I wouldn’t compare Super Bowls Johnny Unitas won to Eli Manning as a result unless Johnny’s 2 NFL Championships in 1958 and 1959 can be added to the debate.
Johnny’s prime only had 2 years from the Super Bowl era in 1966 and 1967. Johnny’s prime was 1957 to 1967. He was not the same quarterback after he cameback from his injuries he got from the 1968 pre season game. I am mentioning prime years because a quarterback really past his prime really can’t win a super bowl although the 1970 team was the exception.
What I said about Unitas can be said with about any QB that got their start in the 1950’s like Starr, and Dawson as examples besides Unitas. When it comes to Super Bowl debates, those type of players need to add any championship they won before the Super Bowl Era.
It may take a while (5-7 years) but it is going to be very hard for HOF voters to ignore a 2xSB MVP QB in E Manning.
Billy Waler I agree but HOF voters look at SB wins and MVPs as big deals. The QBs you mentioned never been to 1. Kurt Warner might not be a HOFer without his SB success. But, he did win 1 and made another. Let’s not punish Eli; be consistent.
With no SB wins, no all decade team, no 1st time all pro and no MVPs, HOFers are not going to look very favorably at Romo and Rivers if their careers end as they currently look. Plus likely 5-6 other QBs from their era will get in first.
Of course Kurt Warner carried his offensive heavy teams and posted great stats while Eli was a game manager on defense carried teams and has mostly posted mediocre to terrible stats.
Not sure why the Warner vs Eli comparison since Warner is getting in the HOF very soon (this being only his 2nd year on the ballot). Warner will be long elected before Eli has a decent shot 1o years or longer from now.
Yeah, I thought that was a strange comparison too. There’s nothing inconsistent about inducting Warner and excluding Eli. They’re two totally different QBs.
And both have cases for the HOF, and both could get in the HOF.
There shouldn’t be no comparison between Eli Manning and Kurt Warner. Kurt’s career is way different than Eli’s. Kurt isn’t going to wait as long as Eli despite the differences.
Kurt’s career is unique. Kurt started late when he first made a NFL team in terms of age. The catch is Kurt had a great start, bad middle, and a great ending to his career. When Kurt was great, he was a top 3 or a top 4 QB. I don’t think think Eli can be called a top 3 Quarterback at any point unlike Kurt.
While Eli has more Super wins and MVPS, Kurt has Eli beat in 2 major categories. Kurt was a 2 time league MP and a 2 time first ball all pro. Eli has neither.
Eli Manning reminds me a lot of Terry Bradshaw, but with less accomplishments. He was generally an above-average QB that has his best games on the biggest stage.. Bradshaw has more team success with 4 Super Bowls, and also has multiple Super Bowl MVP’s, but also had a Hall of Fame running back and perhaps the best defense of all-time…something Eli did not have. Regardless, I think Eli gets in after a somewhat long wait. I think 10-15 years sounds about right.
I may stand alone on this, but I think Kurt Warner gets WAY too much credit. He has the credentials to get into the Hall of Fame, but he played every elite season of his career with a pair of borderline Hall of Fame receivers (save for maybe Anquan Boldin, who was still an excellent receiver), a Hall of Fame running back, and in a pass-oriented offense. He no doubt executed these offenses with incredible ability, but he had A LOT of help. The fact that he was almost inducted in his first year of eligibility is a joke. He may be a very different QB than Eli Manning, but he should be just as tough of a call for the voters.
As to Warner a SB MVP and two time NFL MVP on the ballot is hard to ignore, plus you could make the same argument for almost all HOF QBs about a strong HOF quality supporting cast of other players. Would Aikman have had a HOF career with out Emmitt and Irvin?
Reminds you of what Terry had? Really? Eli never had a Franco Harris, John Stallworth, clutch during postseason WR like Lynn Swann, Mike Webster snapping him the ball and on defense: Mean Joe Greene, L.C. Greenwood(should be in HOF) on the line, Jack Ham, Jack Lambert as LBs, and Mel Blount and Donnie Shell(should be in as well) in secondary. Eli is perhaps the only HOFer as far as players go, besides Michael Strahan(who retired after the win in 2007 SB , which was played in 2008) on those 2 SB winning teams. I don’t see that comparison at all. Tuck and Osi are nowhere near those type of pass rushers and Aaron Ross as your corner? As they say during MNF preview “Come on, Man!”‘
As a QB the expectation is to play great in the big games, during the regular season, in playoffs and of course the SB. QBs can be measured based on season and career numbers, award postseason awards and recognition (all pro, pro bowl) but perhaps more so then any other position they are judged on wins, and two SBs both as MVP is deserving of HOF consideration, not saying above other more deserving players and QBs and not 1st year, but in time Eli deserves to be elected and I believe come time he will be.
Bradshaw wasn’t close to being the greatest QB of his era, but I would rank him above Eli. He had more talent around him but so did the teams he was up against. That was the Great Team era. Eli has played in the Parity era. Apples and Oranges on the team front.
Kurt Warner made Faulk a HoFer. Faulk was a glorified scat back whose production went from decent at Indianapolis to video game like with Kurt Warner, especially in yards/attempt, due to getting to run in those wide open spaces. Warner made everyone around him better.
I disagree with Paul and wouldn’t automatically put in Eli just because he was on two Super Bowl winning teams. That’s a major point in his favor, but by itself it shouldn’t be decisive. His frequent interceptions and mediocre overall stats should be taken into account too. At no point in his career has he been in the argument for best QB in the league.
You give Eli the talent Terry had, he wins those 4 SBs. He has proven it; look at who Eli played against: Tom Brady 2x and beat him both times while claiming the MVP in each. Brady had Randy Moss and they lost to Eli with Plaxico, who never made a Pro Bowl/All Pro. I agree with Rasputin about Eli not being considered best QB, but he has played in the deepest era for QBs. (No order) Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees are easily 4 of the top 10-12 QBs ever. When they all retire, they will be among the top 7-8 the way it is looking. Then the 2nd tier types: Ben Roethlisberger, Phillip Rivers, Tony Romo. They are among the best ever to play. The last 2 might not be in the HOF, but you would be hard pressed to name me 25-30 QBs as good/better. And then Cam Newton, Andrew Luck(not of recent), Matthew Stafford(not of recent), are definitely very good for any era.
Brad,
Eli did have some very good talent around him. Eli played with Tiki Barber. Tiki had a chance to be inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame if Tiki played 2 or 3 more seasons. At the same time, I don’t think Giants would’ve won the Super Bowl with Tiki.
Jeremy Shockey was a very good Tight End having a 4/1 Pro Bowl and 1st team all pro ratio. The problem with Shockey is how had problems staying healthy and shortened his career. If he stayed healthy and played longer, you are talking a borderline Hall of Fame case. Shockey was behind Gonzalez, Witten, and Gates though.
Chris Snee had a chance to be Borderline Hall of Fame Guard that was forced to retire after the 2013 at the age of 31 from a hip injury. Before 2013, Snee had 4/1 Pro Bowl and 1st team all pro ratio. If Snee played longer, he would been a 6 or a 7 time pro bowl guard.
The Players I mentioned were more close to the Hall of Fame than Aaron Rodgers has on Offense. Jody Nelson, Cobb, Jennings, and Driver are your classic good enough to be in the Green Bay Packer Hall of Fame, but not good enough to be in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
You got on me on Wide Receivers for the Giants although I think Odell Beckham has the potential of being the best Giants Wide Receiver they had since the 1960’s.
I know how great Aaron Rodgers is. Eli’s best season prior to this year is not better than Aaron’s worst season as a starter(passer rating wise). Eli is actually having a career year so far. 99.9 passer rating is pretty darn good, even for this era. And is completing 66% of his passes as well. His Giants are in the thick of things for the East title. He could make the playoffs and add to his resume.
I am very honest the Green Bay Packer Wide Receivers that played Aaron Rodgers .Donald Driver only had 743 career catches and 3 pro bowls without making it to a 1st team all pro. You can say its the nature of the Packer’s offense sense they are known to be deep in that position. You can make the arguement Green Bay has better Wide Receivers than Eli, but the Wide Receivers on the Packers aren’t looked upon on the same level as Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, or Calvin Johnson for an Example.
Green Bay has good, not great Offensive Linemen in the past or now for Aaron Rodgers. Josh Sitton isn’t caliber Hall of Fame Player with him having 2 pro bowls and no all pro teams in his first 7 seasons as a Packer.
The surrounding cast of Rodgers in terms of the Hall of Fame is on Defense, not Offense. Charles Woodson is Hall of Player. Julius Peppers is another one also. Clay Matthews has the potential being one depending on his health.
If it wasn’t Nick Collin’s career ending Neck Injury, it is very possible that might have been since he already had 3 pro bowls in 6 seasons before getting the neck injury in his 7th.
Brad,
I admit that Eli’s completion percentage the last 2 seasons with Ben Mcadoo as his Offensive Coordinator were career high’s for him. The Giants drafted Odell Beckham is a key to that. I think he’s best Wide Receiver the Giants had doing my lifetime so far. The Giants haven’t been known for Wide Receivers for a long time. Toomer, Cruz, and Plaxico were the Wide Receivers the Giants had before Beckham was drafted last year.
I do tend agree with Rasputin in terms of era’s between Bradshaw and Eli Manning’s. NFL teams are not that deep in talent were due to free agency and salary cap after the early 1990’s. I can’t compare Terry to Eli in terms of Surrounding casts. If a team has a super team in this era in terms of pro bowlers, not all of them stay when there contract is up due to salary cap.
In terms of Eli Manning right now, he’s not throwing the amount of interceptions as he did in past seasons. I do think one of the keys for him is Odell Beckham and having Ben Mcadoo as his Offensive Coordinator.
Eli has led the NFL in interceptions 3 years, and has never led in TDs. Bradshaw led the league in INTs once and led in TDs twice. I’m not sure Eli wins those 4 Super Bowls in the 70s. Two of them were close 4 point games.
Eli has led NFL in Ints 3x and none in TDs but he isn’t a game manager being 10th in career passing TDs. Archie had a semi long career and Peyton has had a long career.I can see Eli playing another 4-5 seasons. Don’t be shocked if he comes close to and surpasses 400 career TDs.
That may just mean he’s been a starter for along time. Ranking 10th while playing in this era isn’t overly impressive. Even 400 TDs isn’t what it used to be. If he does hit that mark, still a big”if” at this point since he currently has 276, he still wouldn’t even be in the top 5. Plus Rivers, Romo, Aaron Rodgers, Roethlisberger, or some others could vault up there to that territory by then too. It would be a good stat for Eli but not something strong enough to legitimately form a key part of his HoF case. It’s a volume stat, and for a volume stat to carry a QB to the HoF it needs to stand out better than that.
I will clarify one thing. Earlier I used “game manager” in the broadest possible sense. I think Eli is somewhere between what many people would consider a “game manager” and an elite QB. In pure contribution terms he does more for his offense than…say…Trent Dilfer. In this capacity he’s often pretty good, occasionally great, and sometimes terrible.
To be 5th behind Brees, Brady, Manning and Favre is a bad thing?
And Phillip Rivers may never make, let alone win a SB and let alone win 2 while being named MVP in both. He has had stacked offenses too.: LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates are future HOFers. Eli has never had 1 offensive weapon as good as either, until Beckham last year. Giants have no defense(look at the Saints game) and they are still a playoff contender,especially for the division. Chargers are not looking that good at 2-6. Rivers has 11 TDs-9 Ints in playoffs. Eli has 6 more TDs and 1 less int despite a poor outing vs Panthers(0 TDs 3 Ints). Eli also holds NFL records:
Most 4th-quarter touchdown passes in a season (15 in 2011)
Tied NFL Record longest pass completion and touchdown (99 yards in 2011)
Tied NFL Record most game-winning drives in a season (8 in 2011)
Most road wins in a single regular season and postseason by a starting quarterback (10)
Most passing yards in a single postseason (1,219 yards in 2011)
Those are clutch records. GW drives and postseason. Rivers is no Andy Dalton in playoffs but Eli is certainly superior. Eli may not have the TD-Int ratio in regular season but it’s not like he has had LT and Antonio Gates to help him on the ground and in the air. Phillip may have thrown a TD pass to 31 different players, but Eli has thrown a TD pass to 41 different players. 27% of Rivers’ TD passes have been to Antonio Gates. We all agree Antonio Gates is 1 of the best TEs ever. 65% of Eli’s TDs have been to Hakeem Nicks(not as good as Vincent Jackson, which I didn’t add into Rivers’ TD %, if so ,40% of his TDs are to those 2) Kevin Boss,Mario Manningham,Amani Toomer,Rueben Randle,Steve Smith,Larry Donnell,Martellus Bennett,Domenik Hixon,Brandon Jacobs,Jake Ballard,Daniel Fells,Brandon Myers,David Tyree,Tiki Barber(He was good and even great at times but is he close to LT as far as a career? Don’t think s0),Dwayne Harris,Ahmad Bradshaw,Travis Beckum.Darcy Johnson.Shane Vereen,Tim Carter,Sinorice Moss.Preston Parker.Derek Hagan,Madison Hedgecock,Jerrel Jernigan.Marcellus Rivers,Corey Washington,Adrien Robinson.Visanthe Shiancoe.Da’Rel Scott,Derrick Ward,Henry Hynoski,Bear Pascoe,Rashad Jennings,Louis Murphy, and David Wilson. Some are good, but certainly none are no Antonio Gates as a receiver nor Vincent Jackson. I am not trying to knock Phillip, but I am showing Eli has worked with a lot of different players and none as good as LT nor Gates.
Brad, asking Eli to go past Dan Marino’s 420 touchdown passes is a lot to ask for
Being 5th in Touchdowns isn’t much of a bad thing as much as the game has changed. Having over 420 touchdown passes isn’t as impressive as it was Dan Marino’s heyday. Dan got that stat at a time that the rules of the NFL didn’t cater to Quarterbacks as it does now.
The best way to compare it is if Carson Palmer goes past Joe Montana and Johnny Unitas in touchdown passes. Just because a QB for past Montana or Unitas, that doesn’t always mean that player is better than them. That in return means the stat isn’t as impressive as it once was and it doesn’t automatically mean the player is in the hall of fame..
Brad,
Eli did have a have a top 4 tight in Jeremy Shockey when Shockey played for the Giants. The problem is Shockey had problems getting hurt and shorten his career. Shockey to me was behind Gonzalez, Witten and Gates.
I never once said if Eli past a QB in TDs that means he is better. I am simply saying Eli being in top 5 in passing TDs behind Favre, Brady, Peyton, and Marino is pretty darn good. And sure Shockey WAS a top 4 TE of his time. Antonio Gates is easily top 10 of ALL TIME. Shockey makes up almost 7% of Eli’s passing TDs while Gates made up of 27% of Rivers TDs.
Brad,
You missed my point. My point is amount of touchdowns is more of an era thing just like passing yards are. Each era can’t compare to each other due to the difference in rules, offensive schemes, and the advancement of the offensive scheme.
When it comes to the QB position for stats, you only should to compare to other QB’s in the same era. The 400 touchdown mark isn’t as impressive as you make it.
You have to look at how many QB could have at least 400 touchdowns. Right now there is 5, but the amount could be 9 by 2025 at least. Right now, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, and Matt Ryan are on pace for 400 touchdown passes. Big Ben and Tony Romo aren’t likely to get 400 Touchdown passes due to health. I feel Matt Ryan is on pace due to he is going to get 200 touchdown pass by the end of the year at the age of 30.
I completely understand in this era 400+ TDs is like 600 in the 70s-early to mid 90s. I absolutely get that. But, the achievement itself is quiet impressive and perhaps HOF worthy, not by itself, but especially with 2 SB wins and 2 SB MVPs.
Not impressive enough for the HoF in my book when this era is already producing several shoo ins. His more fundamental stats like completion percentage and passer rating are too mediocre.
Rasputin, you can’t be perfect. If so, why is Troy Aikman in? He was surrounded by talent on both sides of the ball. His 165 TDs to 141 ints with Michael Irvin as your main target isn’t all that impressive. Yes he won 3 SBs but he had, as I mentioned, Mr. Irvin, 1 of the best WRs ever, also the all time leading rusher in Emmitt, perhaps the best O-Line ever with Larry Allen and Nate Newton and a very solid defense with Darren Woodson(could get in HOF 1 day) and Charles Haley as well. Eli during his SB runs had …ummm….hmmm, right nothing even close to that. I wouldn’t consider, Osi nor Tuck as good on defense as Charles Haley and Darren Woodson(different positions, but look at the APs/PBs/All decade team honors and tell me they compare). And Brandon Jacobs was good, but Emmitt Smith was certainly light years better. He was durable and perhaps was because he had that incredible O-Line. Eli had a good O-Line, but I seriously doubt any, including Chris Snee, would make the HOF..165 TDs for Troy. Aikman; played mostly in 90s. He pro bowled with 12 TDs-13 ints, 11-10,and 13-12. Not really that good. Also, Troy never had a 4k yard season. Eli has had 4. I understand they are different eras, but Troy played in 90s, not 70s. 165-141 in 60s-70s is good, but in 90s and with that talent around him? Also, Troy won the 3 SBs with defenses ranked #1, #9, and #10. Eli won his with #7 and #27th, which is the worst ranked D to ever win a SB.
Don’t mean to be mean or anything but have fun seeing Eli’s bust in Canton sometime in the future after he retires.
Brad, you say you understand they’re different eras, but the rest of your post shows you don’t. First, Aikman also played in the Great Team era, which stretched through the Cowboys dynasty. The move to Parity was gradual and the mid to late 90s was the tipping point. The early 90s Cowboys and 49ers were two of the greatest teams of all time. So of course he was surrounded by talent. So were Montana, Young, Unitas, Staubach, Graham, etc.. Teams in Eli’s era don’t need that much talent to win a Super Bowl.
Second, Aikman was probably the most accurate thrower in NFL history. Eli’s skills just don’t compare. Despite being drafted by the worst team in the league and finishing riddled with immobilizing back and leg injuries on a mediocre team in salary cap prison, Aikman retired with the third highest career completion percentage in NFL history among players who started for over four years, behind only stat skewing west coast system products Joe Montana and Steve Young. Eli’s career completion percentage is not only below average for his era (terrible), but well below Aikman’s in ABSOLUTE terms.
Aikman also had a good regular season passer rating, but that, along with volume stats in yards and TDs, were skewed down because of the type of system he played in. People would joke about Aikman passing to get down to the goal line and then handing it off to Emmitt to get the TDs. He sacrificed personal stats because he was all about winning. But he repeatedly showed that he was capable of passing up and down the field, and could have posted monster volume stats if he played in a system like Marino’s, or had sky high ratings if he played in a Favre like system where the QB could pad his stats with easy short range TDs.
That said, he did post monster stats in the postseason.
Aikman still holds the career Super Bowl record for completion percentage with 70%. (min. 40 attempts)..
In 11 consecutive playoff games from 1992-1995 Aikman posted a total passer rating of 106.3, a higher four year total than any other QB in NFL history. If it hadn’t been for him heroically getting his rapidly deteriorating team into the playoffs a few more times later in the decade he would have held the postseason career passer rating record for a long time. As it is that 11 game span is a larger sample set than most of the great QBs who top that career list.
In 1992 Aikman had one of the greatest postseasons of all time, completing 68.5% of his passes for 795 yards, 8 TDs and 0 INTs for a pass rating of 126.4. Only Joe Montana and Drew Brees have enjoyed similar postseasons. In the Super Bowl Aikman posted a rating of 140.7 and was named MVP. Possessing mobility in his prime, he even out rushed Thurman Thomas that game.
Aikman’s regular season stats were deceptively great too though. Credit to bachslunch, a few years ago a deep stats analyst named Kiran Rasaretnam developed a ranking system mostly based on completions and interceptions versus era peers that produced lists strongly correlating with HoF status
http://newqbrating.blogspot.com/2010/04/c-scores-new-way-to-evaluate-pro.html
This page features 3 lists ranking QBs by best 4, 7, and 10 years. Aikman’s in the top 10 in both the 4 and 7 year list, and 13th in the 10 year list. While not the final word on precise ranking, it firmly places Aikman among the greatest of all time in era adjusted regular season stats, despite him playing in a system that wasn’t extremely passing stat friendly for his era. I think these lists just go through 2009 or so, but Eli had already played for several years and won a Super Bowl, so for what it’s worth he ranked 150th in the best 4 year list. I bet he’s moved up since then but nowhere near the top 10. Two of his league leading interception seasons have been since then.
I’m not trying to be mean, but Troy Aikman is one of the greatest QBs of all time and a legitimate first ballot HoFer. The shallow refrain of “he’s not that impressive…look at his TD and yardage totals” is common in certain quarters but ignorant. People who know what they’re talking about, and almost everyone who regularly watched him play, have enormous respect for Aikman as a great player. Heck, as I said he was thrown to the wolves as a rookie back in the day, when the NFC East was the most brutally tough division in football year in and year out. Most QB careers wouldn’t have survived that (look at what happened to the extremely talented David Carr in a less physical era), and that early beating possibly did shorten his career some, but he fought his way through it and had an awesome run of excellence.
Eli certainly isn’t on that same level. I don’t think he’s HoF worthy at all right now. That may change, and the selection committee doesn’t always see eye to eye with me anyway, but in this case I don’t think you should hold your breath waiting for his induction. At the very least there are a lot of other guys ahead of him.
Troy had the best passer rating in postseason history from 92-95 and the best single game comp. % min 40 passes in SB history. Congrats. That alone doesn’t get you in. That is a grand total of 11 games. Very small sample size. Tony Romo has the 2nd best passer rating ever and 1 of the most accurate passers ever, so he is a first ballot by that logic. YOU totally missed MY point. 165-141 does not compare well with his fellow HOF QBs, even in different eras. That is a ratio of 1.1 which is closer to Vinny Testaverade, who played the same time, in fact, started his career before Aikman than it is to someone you mentioned, Joe Montana (almost a ratio of 2). I understand WE don’t see eye to eye. Also, I am not ignorant. Please don’t say that about me. Thanks. I understand the different eras. Again, I am just saying a ratio of 1.1 TDs-Ints is not that impressive when compared to fellow HOFers. Also, Eli is way more durable than Troy AIkman ever was. Aikman played 2 full seasons. Eli hasn’t missed start in over a decade. Eli also has 2 SB MVPs to Troy’s 1. I understand they don’t play against each other in terms of one defends the other,but they are matched up vs 1 another. Eli outplayed Tom Brady, perhaps the greatest QB ever and I am a big Jets fan saying that. One of Troy’s wins came against Neil O’Donnell. That is like when Peyton beat Rex Grossman in that And again, we don’t see eye to eye and nor should. Maybe we should move on to another topic that doesn’t get us so heated up.
Sorry Brad, but I have go with Rasputin on Troy Aikman. I was a teenager when the Cowboys won the 3 Super bowls in the 1990’s and I saw Troy play during the regular season and the playoffs as a Green Bay Packer Fan.
You talk about the touchdown and interception ratio, but 25 percent of Troy’s interceptions came in his first 2 seasons in the league with only just over 12 percent of Troy’s career touchdowns came in his first two seasons. The Cowboys in 1989 and 1990 were going through growing pains.
While Troy had Norv Turner and Ernie Zampese through 1997, the nature of the offensive system is much different you would expect out the Don Coryell tree of coaches. Zampese taught Norv Turner Don’s offensive scheme matter of fact.
What Norv Turmer and Zampese did with the Cowboys as offensive coordinators was taking advantage of the of the offensive line they had for goal line and they ran the football more than most teams did back in the 1990’s
Troy Aikman actually was great enough to have a pass first team. I saw what Troy did first hand and he carved up my Green Bay Packers like a Thanksgiving turkey. He was a very accurate QB with a very good arm. I said a very good arm because I saw what he with Alvin Harper first hand for deep passes. Troy did the same with other teams, but the offensive system was part of the problem for the low touchdown amount.
The other thing is Troy didn’t play in 27 regular season game and the pounding he took in his first 2 seasons didn’t help that at all.
I am for Troy and everyone in the HOF. I am not 1 of those people who think certain players shouldn’t be in. If someone with no PBs and APs gets in and doesn’t have stats to tell the real story(very highly unlikely), then I would have something to say about it. I am just pointing out Troy wasn’t asked to do a lot. He was very accurate and is deserving of first ballot. Eli is certainly not getting in as of now. But, Eli is far from being over. As much as I am a Jets fan and don’t really like the Giants(shocker), Eli did not work with great players like others have. Ben Roethlisberger had with Jerome Bettis and Hines Ward(1,000 reception career,SB MVP,excellent blocker) on O and Troy Polamalu(top 10-12 Safeties ever) on defense; who all we will be discussing for HOF someday. He had Plaxico, who was good and sometimes very good. but certainly no AP type talent(He might have deserved at least 1 Pro Bowl. Issac Bruce got subbed 1 year with 1,700+ yards with Chris Miller at QB); hence why Plaxico never got any honors. Eli finally has someone comparable to those: Odell Beckham Jr. Kind of like what John Elway got with Terrell Davis.
With a rejuvenated Chris Johnson, does he still have a shot(with 2-3 more seasons of 1k+) at the HOF? I believe so and nothing to do with his time with NYJ. If anything, that year has hurt his chances. He looked to have been one of those who peaked for 3-4 years then fade big time. He should get to 10k by next year(unless he has one of those seasons). We all know LT and AP are going in the HOF first ballot most likely(Adrian needs another 2-3 seasons of 1k to be a shoe-in).Frank Gore and Steven Jackson have compelling cases. Marshawn Lynch needs to enter the 10k club first. He has more honors than Gore and Jackson. I wouldn’t mind them in. After those, not many RBs are emerging. 1 guy I wished would be in the conversation is Jamaal Charles. He is 1 of the most talented RBs ever. 5.5 yards per rush(5th all time,1st among those with 1k+ carries),very good receiver for a RB ,and an excellent blocker as one as well. Problem is, he gets hurt a lot. He has 7k in rushing. Even if he gets to 10k, he is in the crowd of 30+ of that many.
Brad,
John Elway did have help on defense before Terrell Davis came along on offense. John had Dennis Smith, Karl Mecklenburg, and Steve Atwater. John also got Shannon Sharpe in 1990 and already was big playmaker in the Broncos offense before Terrell Davis came in 1995. Shannon got a breakout season in 1993 after Shannon was improving every season he got in the league in 1990.
Karl and Steve Atwater are good sized hall of fame Snubs. Steve’s problem is the fact the Hall of Fame doesn’t like inducting safeties.
The problem with Kart is the media thinks of the 3 Super Bowl Bronco teams of the 1980’s was John Elway and nobody else. The other problem with Karl is he got overlooked by LT, Rickey Jackson and the dome patrol, and Andre Tippett back in the 1980’s and early 90’s.
While Terrell Davis was looked at why John won two Supper Bowls, what the Broncos also did in the Front office in 1993,1994 and 1995 was major keys on how the Broncos won the 2 super Bowls. Rod Smith was signed in 1995 and became a very good Wide Receiver for the Broncos. Tom Nalen was drafted in 1994 and was a very good center. Gary Zimmerman was a big pick up in 1993 free agency for the Broncos. Nalen and Zimmerman was key additions that was part was the Broncos were so great running the ball in John’s final seasons.
Yes, I know John had help. He was a better player than Troy. His rushing ability was incredible, even at tail end of his career. That helicopter spin in the SB vs Packers is evidence of such.
I am familiar with John’s ability including the 1980’s. John had a strong arm, and very mobile for his time. I don’t think John was as mobile as Steve Young, Randall Cunningham were though.
As far as John being better than Troy, that is a harder debate. I always found Troy being the more accurate passer, but how much is the question do to the two different time periods in John’s career. I think John’s completion percentage depends on the offensive system he’s in. Troy was going to be more accurate in any offensive system than John Elway was.
The problem I have is John was a much more higher completion percentage after Dan Reeves was fired starting 1993. John’s completion percentage in 1993 was 63.2 percent compare to 55.1 in 1992.I didn’t remember many rule changes from 1992 to 1993 for benefiting the quarterback or the wide receivers outside of the intentional grounding rule change.
That told more that it was one of two or two things. John was not a complete perfect fit for Dan’s system, or it caused by the offensive cast starting in 1993 is way better than Elway had under Dan Reeves. I remembered John Elway and Dan Reeves wasn’t seeing eye to eye in the final years of Dan coaching John though.
The only difference from the 1992 Broncos and the 1993 Broncos besides the head coach was Gary Zimmerman Free agent pick up, Mark Jackson left, additions of Rod Bernstine, and Robert Delpino. The running backs I named really didn’t make much of a difference to me, but Zimmerman was a huge addition.
The reason I am pointing to John’s accuracy back in the 1983 to 1992 era was because he was mostly a 53.6 to 56 percent accurate passer a season under Dan Reeves. That is not even great under that era. A great completion percentage in a season in the 1980’s to the early 1990’s was in the 57 to 60 percent range. When it comes to completion percentage in the Reeves Era, I thought Montana, Marino, Jim Kelly were more accurate than the Dan Reeve’s era John Elway. Jim Kelly had a better completion percentage than John Elway even before Thurman Thomas and James Lofton came along.
Sure, he wasn’t Steve nor Randall., but was Troy Carl Lewis? Let’s be real here. Elway was a superior rusher. John Elway went to 5 total SBs. I am aware Elway had good defenses but he was never around talent quite like Troy. In 1986 Broncos’ leading rusher averaged 3.3 yards per rush(somehow pro bowled) and Mark Jackson(not the former NBA star) was his leading receiver that year too. It’s not like those are legends, . And in 1987 his leading receiver was Vance Johnson. Again, nothing too special. John wasn’t as accurate but Troy didn’t carry the offense like Elway did. Troy didn’t play so well with the #8th ranked offense in 1998 playoffs. 1 TD 3 Ints. I know it’s one game, but you can’t show me when Troy carried a team like John did in 1986 and 1987. Kind of like LeBron in 2006-07 season in NBA with Cavs. Had pieces but not much. https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?/topic/552157-100-greatest-players-on-nfln-list-is-in-original-post/ Take a look at that list. Troy ranked #80, while John #23. I don’t agree with every single one, but that is a big difference in rankings. I personally believe Sammy Baugh is #1 based on his versatility. He was head and shoulders the best QB of his time and top 20-25 ever. Very solid Defensive Back and 1 of the best punters ever.
Let me rephrase the beginning. Elway was surrounded by talent but that was when he was on his way out. I showed you the offenses he had in 1986 & 1987. Nothing like Emmitt and Irvin.
Brad, I didn’t say anything about Troy being Carl Lewis. I was only talking Troy throwing the the football. I also didn’t state John had great offensive players in the 1980’s.
I know, I was being sarcastic. I was just saying John was no Steve nor Randall, but neither was Troy.
I’m not sure how a discussion about Eli became about Aikman and Elway, lol, but with all due respect you’re really out to lunch on this, Brad. That Aikman even appears on that top 100 greatest NFL players of all time list you linked to (ahead of Steve Young, btw), something Eli will never get close to, ends this argument decisively if you put any stock in the list. I have my own huge problems with it, but I do agree that Aikman is one of the greatest players in NFL history. I also think he was a better player, at least during his peak, than Elway was, but they’re both legitimate first ballot HoFers and were much better than Eli. Elway has longevity and volume stats while Aikman takes it on sustained peak performance.
You conveniently left out where Aikman beat HoFer Jim Kelly in 2 Super Bowls. Aikman was vital to those SB teams. He was routinely called upon to move the offense down the field. He had his share of late comeback wins, but Dallas didn’t need many of those because Aikman”s passing generally led to early scoring and the lead, and the Cowboys pounded opponents with Smith as the game wore on to reduce the chances of a comeback.
Some people try to use Emmitt to diminish Aikman, or Aikman to diminish Irvin, or the O-line to diminish Emmitt, but the truth is that all those guys were among the best of all time at their positions, which is why they accomplished the unprecedented feat of 3 SB wins in 4 years, and would have won more without the new salary cap and free agency rules that prematurely ended their dynasty. Every single one of their playoff wins during that four year dynastic span was by double digits. Think about that for a moment. That’s historic dominance in the biggest games. Aikman was the unquestioned leader of that team.
You can’t base an Eli HoF case on 2 SB wins while dismissing the best four year postseason stretch in NFL history, one that included 3 SB wins, as a “very small sample size”. And you misunderstood; Aikman’s Super Bowl completion percentage record is a career one over 3 games, not just one. As for the 11 games, the guys currently (through 2013 at least) leading the career playoff passer rating list had smaller sample sizes:
Bart Starr – 10 games; 104.8
Drew Brees – 9 games; 104.2
Aaron Rodgers – 9 games; 103.6
http://static.nfl.com/static/content/public/image/history/pdfs/Records/2013/Postseason_Performance.pdf
So Aikman’s 106.3 rating over 11 games is outstanding. That’s more postseason games than most QBs see in their career. There’s no way to spin that away. Awesome peak performance.
No one missed your TD/INT ratio point (though your math is slightly off). I just contextualized it, and Packerfan4ver did so even more thoroughly. I’m not trying to hurt your feelings, but the people who know about Aikman don’t question his greatness as a QB. The pot shots almost invariably come from those who hardly if ever watched him play, and who just take a quick glance at some of the volume stats you cited without looking deeper.
The arguments for Eli should deal with his contemporaries anyway, not apples and oranges comparisons with great players of earlier, very different eras. I do agree that Eli is roughly in a similar place as Roethlisberger. Personally I wouldn’t put either in Canton right now, but they’re both borderline candidates. If either makes it it will probably be after a lengthy wait.
I believe 165/141 is 1..17 so my math is not off. Just want your thoughts: Why is Troy’s TDs the lowest by any HOFer from 80s-present?
165 as an eye test seems low, especially during the era of throwing the ball more. Namath, Baugh, and Graham even have more.
It’s funny how much you wrote when I was just trying to my a point on no one is perfect.
You rounded in the wrong direction earlier (should be 1.2), but that’s an irrelevant tangent for reasons already explained.
To answer your question, Aikman’s career was shorter than most other recent HoF QBs and he played in a system that wasn’t conducive to career volume stats. A better question is why does he possess the best postseason passer rating over a four year span in NFL history and the career Super Bowl completion percentage record, why did he retire ranked 3rd in regular season career completion percentage among QBs who had been starters for at least a few years, why does he rank so highly among the all time greats in era adjusted regular season stats per the Rasaretnam system linked to above, and why was he included on that top 100 NFL players of all time list you linked yourself?
You’re sputtering now, Brad. You don’t seem to have a point.
Just saw this:
“It’s funny how much you wrote when I was just trying to my a point on no one is perfect.”
That’s not much of a point.
I didn’t round up for Montana, I don’t believe in rounding up honestly. It’s not the truth. And ok Rasputin, you “win” congrats. Want a trophy?
I never once said Troy is not 1 of the best ever.
You keep putting words in my mouth time and time again.
I won’t lie, a trophy would be nice.
Ask Reggie Bush for his …oh wait
Brad, Rasputin and I already explained Troy’s amount of touchdowns is low for his era. The Cowboys offense near the goal line loved to run the football in Troy’s time unlike some teams in that era including my Packers. The Cowboys offensive line was designed for running the football. The other thing is Troy retired after the 2000 season at the age of 34. Concussions did play a factor on why Troy retired like it did for Steve Young.
One of the things you have to look at is the 1991 to 1995 era of the Cowboys. I am not cherry picking as much as showing the Cowboys at the peak.
The Dallas Cowboys in 1993, 1994 and 1995 was below the league average for pass attempts. The Cowboys in those seasons were ranked 24th,26th, and 28th in pass attempts.
The Dallas Cowboys in 1992, 1993,1994, and 1995 had more rush attempts than the league average. The Cowboys in those seasons were ranked 4th,6th, 1st and 4th in rush attempts. What I mean about more rush attempts by league is take a look at 1994 as an example. The Cowboys had 550 rushing attempts that season, but the average was 448 attempts per team that season.
The Rush attempts I mentioned is a huge thing to consider. I realize one of the things that causes it is a team protecting a lead, but there is more than that. One of the reasons for the amount of rushing attempts is the nature of the goal line offense the Cowboys have. The other thing is the Cowboys liked to run on short yardage situations that time.
Yeah, Packerfan4ever, when I mentioned the Cowboys tending to pass early to build leads I was talking about getting the ball downfield into scoring position. In the red zone they fed Emmitt.
Rasputin brought up Drew Brees’ Postseason when talking about Troy Aikman. Are you saying he was better than Drew Brees or just comparing him to other all time great QBs?
I said Joe Montana, Drew Brees, and Troy Aikman are the only QBs to have postseasons that great in all the metrics I laid out.
Oh ok, gotcha. Cam Newton has now got the Panthers 8-0 and perhaps the team to beat in NFC. If he so happens to win the SB, does he now surpass Andrew Luck as the young QB of the 2010s? I think he is on the verge of doing that.
I know that it’s a big big thing to ask him to do. I do believe he has surpassed Luck as that QB. Luck is not playing well as a whole this year. Will be tough to beat Broncos again, let alone a determined Patriots. Cam has a easier path. Packers are only other legit team.
The only problem I have with Newton is his completion percentage. I am sure his supporting cast of passing targets isn’t helping matters. Cam’s 53.7 completion percentage is very low in this era. I think highly of Greg Olsen for years, but the loss of Kelvin Benjamin is hurting the passing game. I thought Olsen’s problem in Chicago was Mike Martz.
Newton’s certainly not the great young passer of his era, as he’s below average in rating, completion percentage, yards/game, and TD to INT ratio, but tacking on several hundred yards and a few TDs every year running the ball does make him a much better player than those numbers indicate. I still think their defense has carried that team more often than the offense during his tenure, but the offense has been potent lately.
Do we have to crown just one young QB of the 2010s?
Of course not, but we always say Brady is better than Peyton; why not with these two have some type of competition? And I agree, Greg Olsen is very good, but Newton doesn’t really have a true #1 WR with Kelvin out. He is not the better passer between him and Luck, but Newton’s rushing skills is possibly the best I have ever seen in NFL history(by a QB). He is not fast like Vick, but he can take hits that has shelved Vick. His 85 passer rating is the same exact that is Luck’s. So, based on that alone, he is not too far behind. Luck has rushing skills., but he does not have the athleticism that Cam possess. It is honestly on another level.
Cam to me is on pace to be a HOFer. He is definitely top 2 QBs that are under 30. Him and Luck are pretty much it. Wilson I would take over both, but he needs another `1-2 seasons under his belt.
I would rank them Wilson, Newton, and Luck as the frontrunners for HOF. They are not in the Brees, Brady etc era. They are the era after that.
Brad,
While Newton is bigger than Vick, his completion percentage does need to be better down the road. While Newton is still young, Quarterbacks in their 30’s tend not to get as many rushing yards they did their 20’s.
It is still too early to say Newton, Luck or Wilson are the Best QB’s under the age of 30. I do think it is possible for Derek Carr 2 or 3 years from now being in the conversation of best Quarterbacks under the age of 30. Derek right now needs to be in pro bowl conversation. Any QB that has a only 4 interceptions to 19 touchdowns along with a 63.7 completion percentage is having a great season like what Derek is going..
I didn’t see a lot of Carr last year except for a couple games, but he had a great rookie considering his sounding cast was. Any Rookie QB with 20 touchdowns and 14 interceptions is a great rookie season along with 59 percent completion percentage like Carr did. The poor record Derek had as a rookie was due to his sounding cast. What Derek’s stats are this season with a better records shows what happens when a team surrounds him with a good or great targets in Crabtree and Amari Cooper.
Yes, Derek Carr is in the mix for best QB under 30. I just mentioned the 3 QBs with multiple PBs and Cam is a legit MVP candidate this year. And yes I am aware QBs don’t rush a lot as they get older, but he might break that mold. He could end up with 220-230+ TDs, 35,000+ yards and somewhere around 55-60+ rushing TDs, which I think would be good enough for HOF(along with 6-7 PBs). Forget about him being a QB ( he is no Trent Dilfer or Brad Johnson, who both had good careers, but never threw for 4k let alone with `14 rushing TDs). Just as a player, Cam is very special and that is what HOF is pretty much about. And as far as his passing; Cam may not be a good passer per se, but he did pass for 4,000 yards, 21 TDs, 14 rushing TDs his rookie year. Perhaps 1 of the best rookie performance in sports history; since Wilt’s 37-27 campaign. Keep in mind, Panthers year before he arrived, they scored 17 total TDs as a team. They went 2-14 and both wins by 1 score each. He took over a horrid team and defense wasn’t too good either. He turned them around his day one.
Another one I would put in the mix as well is Andy Dalton. His postseason is really not that good. 1 TD 6 ints. But, I think this is a new Andy Dalton. His team is 8-0 and he has a 111.0 passer rating. Every year before that he was in the 80 range. This year, he is playing as well as ever.
Not to belabor the point on Eli Manning, but Two Super Bowls just can’t be the end all. First off… Jim Plunkett is not in the HOF wit Two Super Bowls. Also Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl. If they each won one more…would they be HOFamers?
Never said it was the end all. It certainly helps him. Eli has many Pro Bowls than all 3 of who you mentioned combined. Also, Trent and Brad won their SBs on the greatest defenses ever(easily 2 of the top 10-12 single season defenses ever). Brad Johnson put up 7 TDs-12 Ints and Trent Dilfer put up 4 TDs-4 ints, also completed 43.7% of his passes in postseason. Those are ok numbers. Neither won SB MVP, in fact, a defender won for each team. That tells you who really was the reason why won: Their defenses. I know Eli is playing in the “easier era” as far as passing,but it’s not like both those two QBs played in 50s-80s. They started in mid 90s and careers ran into the 2000s. Brad Johnson had 1 season of 4k, Trent’s career high is 2,859 passing yards. Eli has 4 seasons 4k, working on his 5th this year. I don’t see a case at all for Trent nor Brad. Better than your average QB with a pro for Trent and 2 for Brad and a SB win each, but HOF? It definitely would open the door for a QB like Rich Gannon, who had All Pro seasons and league MVP and SB appearance, who he faced Johnson’s vaunted Bucs defense.
As for Jim Plunkett, he never had any honors. It would be hard to put him in without being at least 1 of the better QBs of any season. He does have 2 rings and won a SB MVP, but his body of work, just like Dilfer’s and Johnson’s ,is not HOF material. He certainly has a better shot than those 2, but I still don’t see him getting in. Wouldn’t mind him getting in, but I am going by what I think HOF voters would elect. Jim was too inconsistent at times. He put up a good rookie year with 19 TDs 16 ints, but then followed it up with 8 TDs-25 ints.
Eli Manning only having 3 Pro Bowls is another obstacle for him. Hall of Fame QBs typically have many more than that.
Plunkett has absolutely no HoF argument beyond two SB wins. His regular season numbers are truly terrible. Rasaretnam for example has him dead last in “Best 10” and 90th of 95 in “Best 7.”
Eli is in the deepest era of QBs. And Pro Bowls today are not what they used to be because of the fan vote. Stafford didn’t Pro Bowl putting up 5k in yards and 40 TDs, which is a great season in any era, yet pro bowled putting up 4,200 yards with 22 TDs. Eli(30-14) should have Pro bowled last year ahead of Andy Dalton(19-17). That shows you how much of a joke it is to be a PBer today. You can have quality seasons without being named to the PB.
Brad,
The problem with pro bowl is deeper than the fan vote. The Pro Bowl has been played the week before the Super Since 2010. That in return causes players on Super Bowl teams to miss the Pro Bowl. That in return causes the Pro Bowl to be even more watered down since players are going to skip the pro bowl anyway if they are picked or not.
The Players have be blamed to a point also. How do Explain Terrell Suggs back in 2010 admitted that he voted for Ryan Fitzpatrick because as a disrespect to the New England Patriots if the problem with voting is only the fans? Snce Terrell Suggs did that type
behavior towards voting in the pro bowl, what prevents other players do similar behavior?
What I mentioned about Suggs is why having for NFL players vote for the Pro Football hall of fame is not a good idea.
In that case it certainly doesn’t sound like Eli’s Pro Bowls are an argument in his favor either.
I wasn’t saying that Plunkett should be a Hall of Famer. He shouldn’t and neither should Eli Manning unless he ends up being better than Roethlisberger, Rivers or Romo. You figure Brady, Peyton, Rodgers and Brees are automatics from this Era. Eight QB’s would be a lot from one time frame and I think Rivers and Roethlisberger will have better numbers than Eli when all is said and done. Romo’s injuries may do him in.
Rivers and Romo have 6 playoff wins total, Eli has 4 wins in title game and SB and has 2 SB MVPs. By the looks of it, neither Romo nor Rivers will ever play in 1, let alone win 2. And it’s not like Eli is horrible at passing like you all are trying to make him out to be. Again, I am not a Giants fan the slightest. As strange as it may sound, I rooted for Pats because I know more Giant fans than Patriot fans; and wouldn’t like to hear them brag about their SB victories. But, Eli did in fact win 2 SBs and 2 SB MVPs and the other QBs you mentioned never been to 1 and have had great teams around them(at least on offense. Eli had the 27th ranked D, which is the worst ranked D to ever make, let alone win the SB. Also, Giants were first team to win a SB same year they give up more points than they scored. Shows you who he was working with).
Eli’s D was missing key players they got back in time for the playoff run, and they, especially the pass rush, carried the team more than he did. That’s the nature of the parity era. The Giants were an average team, including at QB, but got hot at the right time for a few games on a run that lasted long enough to win the SB.
Neither Rivers nor Romo’s career is over, but I think Eli has too many guys ahead of him whether those two get in by validating their vastly superior stats with a SB win or not.
Not arguing that Rivers and Romo have significantly better stats, but they never got hot at the right time; and hence why Eli has 2 SB wins and they have 6 playoff wins. I look at complete resume, not just postseason. Eli does throw a lot of Ints but so did Joe Namath and he is in. I know Namath had more PBs and many more APs and Joe was definitely better than Eli in their respective eras. Anyway, Eli won’t get in first ballot(Unless he puts up 150+ more TDs, which he could) and/or wins another SB. He will get in on closer to his 9th, 10th ballot if not longer in my opinion and I know it differs from all of yours. As one of you said (I believe it was Rasputin) you don’t always agree with the HOF. It would be a boring blog if we all agreed.
“Eli’s D was missing key players they got back in time for the playoff run, and they, especially the pass rush, carried the team more than he did. That’s the nature of the parity era. The Giants were an average team, including at QB, but got hot at the right time for a few games on a run that lasted long enough to win the SB..” Eli didn’t help them out? So his 15 TDs-2 Ints in those SB runs didn’t help? You serious?
And Giants were 27th ranked yet made the playoffs. How are you going to make the playoffs while being outscored? Shows you Eli is capable of being more than just a game manager as you are trying to say without saying it.
I didn’t say he didn’t help. I said he didn’t primarily carry the team. And again, both Rivers and Romo have more seasons ahead of them. Neither is planning on retiring any time soon as far as I know. Romo led the NFL in passer rating just last year, and has more talent around him on offense than ever before.
As an NFC East guy I probably know more about the Giants than you do, and I remember in 2011 that guys like Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck struggled with injuries throughout the year before getting healthy at the end of the season. sparking a turnaround that rendered that seasonal ranking obsolete for this discussion. .
Heck, in 2007 they ranked 7th in defense and 16th in offense anyway. In the 2007 postseason they never scored more than 24 points, holding their opponents to 20 points or less in all 4 games.
In the 2011 postseason they did exceed 24 points once in 4 games, but, again, held their opponents to 20 or less every game, and held the Falcolns to 2 points in the wildcard round, The Giants had 9 sacks and forced 9 turnovers in that postseason.
As for the MVPs, Eli did play well enough, but they almost never give MVPs to defensive players, and the Giants didn’t have much else on offense, so it almost went to Manning by default.
I am well aware how great Tuck and Osi played in playoffs. It is a team sport. Brady had help with at least 1 SB win off top my head, when Ty Law had a pick six in a 1 possession game(also gave Peyton manning problems in playoffs too). Eli isn’t planning on retiring either. Romo is hurt ,which doesn’t help his stats; his team has virtually no shot at making playoffs, only if Giants and Eagles fall apart big time(as in almost lose out ). Also, Rivers’ team is spiraling down; ever since LT left they haven’t been the same team. 2006-2010 pretty good team record wise, ever since(Post LT) no double digit win season and 2-7 this year. Why I think both can play a long time from now on but still probably won’t win a SB: Both have a combined 2 playoff wins since start of 2010. Not saying they WON’T ever win, but it’s not looking like it.
If you think they can both play for multiple years, you might want to hold off on declaring that it looks like they won’t ever win a Super Bowl. The Cowboys would likely be one of the best teams in the league right now if Romo hadn’t gone down. Most of their players are returning next year, possibly with new good additions. Overall they’re one of the youngest teams in the league.
I do but until they win a SB I don’t see either being a threat to Eli for HOF. Like I said, I am not saying they won’t get a SB but not looking good. Also, what makes you think Romo will be a great playoff QB ? He has his woes during that time of the year. His numbers are great in postseason with 8-2 TD-int ratio,but as my favorite team’s former coach said ” You play to win the game”. We measure players on titles. I will say, I am for both going in the HOF even if they don’t win nor make a SB. They would need around 350-400 TDs with 55-60k in yards. Eli can get those #s as well. As I’ve said before, I look at the entire resume.
That anti-Romo stuff is old news, and was frankly always BS. Romo has posted over a 100 passer rating in 3 of his last 4 playoff games. This season is underscoring how valuable he is to the team. Unlike Eli, he does carry it. It’s just a matter of getting him some more help.
But I agree he realistically needs to win a SB to make the HoF. I also think the odds of that happening look better going forward than they did a few years ago.
Yeah, I never really bought into it completely. It was just a feeling people got about him Tony can make the HOF without a SB appearance. Career numbers are as big as anything in my book. He has the 2nd highest passer rating ever(Wilson is a few attempts away from joining the career Passer Rating list, which he should be 2nd with the 98 rating he currently has).
I think we all agree that Adrian Peterson is first ballot HOF. He has the 3rd highest average for rushing yards per game, only behind Jim Brown and Barry Sanders. His honors 4/6/10s all decade team most likely, are very solid. He has 2 rushing titles and most likely going to be 3 after this year. He has scored 96 total TDs but will most likely play another 1-2 more seasons. Has 11k in rushing yards, most likely will be around 13-14k when he retires. He easily top 10 RB ever, I’d go as far to say he is perhaps top 5-7.
In reference to Rivers and Romo, are there any comparative current HOF QBs who did not win a championship, have few or no All Pro selections, and at the time of their election held no career or season passing records? I am not sure holding the career passing rating is that great of a HOF caliber achievement – if Romo even manages to hold it after retirement, especially given the wide disregard for that stat and likelihood he is surpassed. As perhaps the potential 6 and 7 QB HOFer from the current era, I am not sure voters are going to look favorably on either of them unless they manage an impressive late career surge with SB wins.
As to Peterson, for me really hard for him or any other recent or current RB to crack my top five list of Brown, Smith, Payton, Sanders, Campbell, but there is likely room among the 6-10th best.
Earl was great runner, perhaps the best power back, but AP has him beat on receiving. AP is definitely top 10 though.
Best I can tell, the HoF QBs who bet fit the “no title/few 1st team all pro/no career or in-season category tops” description would be Jim Kelly and Warren Moon. Neither won a title, both were 1st team all-pro only once, and neither led the league too often in anything (Moon in TDs once, yards and completions twice, attempts three times; Kelly once each in completion pct., TDs, and QB rating).
In this era it is very hard to make an All Pro team if your name isn’t Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees.
Why I don’t hold that against Eli, Rivers, and Romo. Between those 4 QBs, someone or 2 or more will have an incredible season any given year.. Just got down the AP teams for QBs since 2005-201`4. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2005/allpro.htm No one else is on the AP teams but those 4. Cam Newton might be 2nd team this year(Aaron could get it), Tom Brady being 1st of course.
Cam has quietly won his last 12 regular season starts. Pretty impressive feat. Him and his team seem to be on the up rise for the future. Just think no Kelvin Benjamin this year and he is 9-0 having Ted Ginn as his leading reciever( Greg Olsen is a solid TE, but he doesn’t have a legit #2 WR, let alone a legit #1 and #2 WRs). I truly believe he has a good shot at QB being that him, Wilson, and Luck are the only ones who look like they have HOF credentials. In next 4-5 years we will have a much clearer picture about who will emerge as the QBs of the 2010s into 2020s.
I would mention Dan Fouts along with Warren Moon as the HOF compliments to Tony Romo and Philip Rivers. To Me Eli Manning is comparible to Boomer Esiason except his team won the SB and Esiason lost to 49ers.
Fouts set some major season passing records (first back to back 4000 yard seasons and set single season record), plus retired 4th in all time passing, NFL MVP, 2(2)/6 profile, and was 1st year HOF inductee – not sure Rivers or Romo will end up with that quality of career, unless they can achieve MVP, SB or top five in career passing.
Moon was (2)/9 with MVP (NEA), and was in top 5 of all career passing records when he retired, and most accomplished black QB – huge social influence and acceptance of next era of black QBS, plus his impressive CFL numbers, was 1st year HOF selection.
Both Fouts and Moon have MVPs, more all pro, more pro bowls (at a time when Pro bowls were more meaningful than today), and were in top 5 season and career passing numbers when they retired, neither are comparable to current careers by Rivers or Romo..
In all these areas both Romo and Rivers currently fall short, and I am not so sure either will stay healthy enough and play long enough in remaining careers to achieve those standards, although SB is still a possibility, their windows are rapidly closing. .
I don’t think Moon’s skin color had anything to do with his induction; at least I hope it didn’t. The Hall of Fame isn’t a place for affirmative action or making social statements, groundbreaking though some may feel they were. When we talk about whether a player “changed the game” it typically means on the field. At the time I predicted Moon would be first ballot largely based on his volume career stats (among accolades and other things), and supported his induction for that reason.
I also tend to give partial credit for his CFL accomplishments.
Dungy’s case is partially built on his accomplishments as an African American coach, so yes I believe same came into play to some degree with Moon (and I have no issue with his selection as his NFL career numbers and awards justified election).
I don’t think Dungy’s race should be considered at all either.
Announcement of 2016 semi-finalists today?? Last year it was on Weds Nov 19th, but so far no update on the HOF website or their twitter feed.
here is my 2016 semi-finalist prediction:
Morton Anderson
Steve Atwater
Isaac Bruce
Don Coryell
Roger Craig
Terrell Davis
Tony Dungy
Alan Faneca
Brett Favre
Kevin Greene
Marvin Harrison
Rodney Harrison
Torry Holt
Edgerrin James
Joe Jacoby
Jimmy Johnson
Ty Law
John Lynch
Clay Matthews
Kevin Mawae
Karl Mecklenburg
Terrell Owens
Orlando Pace
Kurt Warner
Darren Woodson
NFL Network schedule shows listing for “NFLN Special – HOF” for Tues Nov 23rd at 8pm, guessing that will be the announcement of 2016 HOF semi-finalists
Wouldn’t the 23rd be a monday
Tuesday Nov 24th 8pm on NFL Network
I like your list, Paul. Seems to be about right. Would be interesting to see if Steve Tasker makes it. Rodney Harrison doesn’t have a strong resume with 3/2./none but he his stats tell a better story. He was I believe the first to 30 Sacks/30 Ints(since sacks have been an official stat in 1982). There are knocks on him about his dirty play. He had 69 accepted penalties in his career. 19 or so were unnecessary roughness. That is a lot. His 2 SB rings do help him out too. He was a key part of the Pats defense.
It’s a shame Zach Thomas seems to be, once again., the odd man out. He has 1 of the better honors/resumes on the list(5/7/00s). I find it interesting Clay Matthews is on your list but no Zach Thomas, Paul. Even Clay’s son right now, if he were to never pro bowl nor all pro again, has a better resume. The older Clay’s claim to fame is having played more games at LB than anyone. But, he never managed to make the 1st All Pro team once. Not that is the end all be all. Definitely not, but not many players in general are in the HOF without 1 nor been to/won the SB. He most definitely has a better shot at reaching Canton over another longevity player in Jim Marshall.
Sam Mills and Tony Boselli are new names(besides the first year guys and obvious picks). Both I could see getting in someday.
Glad to see Boselli make the step up. He was every bit as good as the other elite LTs in a golden era for the position.