The last two classes of modern era players inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame have been, from top to bottom, as

Courtesy of the Pro Football Hall of Fame

Courtesy of the Pro Football Hall of Fame

solid as they come. Not everyone I would have picked myself got in, but none of the people who did were borderline cases, at least in my eyes.

Voters knocked several of the most deserving players off the list, meaning predicting the finalists and then the class of 2015 might be slightly tougher this year.

As we did last year (when we actually hit 14 of 15 finalists), we’ll start by picking a final 15.

The first 10 players should be fairly easy. Look at who made last year’s list who were not ultimately enshrined in the Hall. They were Morten Andersen, Jerome Bettis, Tim Brown, Edward DeBartolo Jr., Tony Dungy, Kevin Greene, Charles Haley, Marvin Harrison, John Lynch and Will Shields.

That’s 10 of 15 spots. Those guys are really pretty easy. They won’t likely all make the Hall, but there are legitimate cases for all of them and there aren’t any legitimate reasons for them to fall out of favor.

Then you’ve got first-year candidates. The eight biggest names, as I see it, whose clocks start in 2014 are QB Kurt Warner, RB Edgerrin James, WRs Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce, T Orlando Pace, C Kevin Mawae, CB Ty Law and LB Junior Seau.

There will be discussion, I believe, on three as potential first-ballot HOFers: Warner, Pace and Seau. I think Holt and his seven Pro Bowls could legitimately find his way into the semifinalist list of 25, but I think he ranks a distant third behind the holdover receivers Tim Brown and Marvin Harrison among the crop of those eligible at the position.So that’s 13. The one guy we picked last year who didn’t make the cut from 25 to 15 was Steve Atwater. The Hall voters have been strange about safeties going back to the beginning of time, enshrining only nine guys who have played the position – and some of those were from before the modern era. John Lynch made the finalist list last year. Atwater is an equal in career profile. I think it’d be a surprise if he didn’t regain a slot in the finalist section.

You could go any number of directions for the final spot. Any number of coaches would fit the bill. Jimmy Johnson? People may soon start believing Bill Cowher doesn’t intend to coach again. But there already are two non-players on our list.

Ray Guy’s selection for this year’s class is the first time a punter has been picked. Does this open the floodgates for special teams contributors like Brian Mitchell and Steve Tasker? I think we’ll see more of these guys considered, but I doubt seriously they start flying onto finalist lists in back-to-back years.

How about this profile for the 15th finalist spot? Eight-time semifinalist. Three AP First Team awards and three Pro Bowls. A 2,000-yard rushing season and 3,758 yards rushing in 1997 and 1998 – which happened to be the two seasons the Denver Broncos won the Super Bowl.

I think Terrell Davis is going to have a difficult time actually gaining enshrinement into the Hall because he played only seven seasons, three of which were shortened by severe injuries. But when he did play he was incredible – four seasons as one of the league’s top handful at his position puts him on the borderline, but it’s comparable to Gale Sayers and it’s good enough to earn a spot in the finals for 2015’s class.

So, here’s the breakdown by position:

K Andersen
RB Bettis, Davis
WR Brown, Harrison
QB Warner
OL Pace, Shields
DL/LB Haley, Greene, Seau
DB Atwater, Lynch
Coach Dungy
Owner DeBartolo

From that list, here’s who Tony and I think will make the final five:

Andy Tony
Will Shields Junior Seau
Marvin Harrison Marvin Harrison
Junior Seau Will Shields
Charles Haley Charles Haley
John Lynch Jerome Bettis

Explanations:

Andy: I thought Shields should have made it last year or this year, but it’s hard to argue against any of Jonathan Ogden, Larry Allen or Walter Jones. Their careers, coupled with the mostly understandable bias toward tackles over guards, made them deserving honorees. Orlando Pace is Shields’ strongest competition at o-line this season. Shields had five more Pro Bowl selections and, while he had one fewer AP All Pro award, he was hampered less by injury. The former Chief is long overdue.

Andre Reed made it in over Harrison in 2014. I think, unfortunately, Tim Brown’s momentum isn’t as strong. Harrison definitely belongs and he would have been a legit first-ballot inductee. I have nothing against his selection – I just don’t want to see Brown not get the recognition it deserves.

Junior Seau has the strongest first-year case, in my opinion. Twelve Pro Bowls and a standard of excellence that has been matched by only a few earn him honors. I think 2015 will see either Haley or Kevin Greene make it in. The handful of rings sported by Haley gives him the nod.

For the final spot, I was torn. It could go to Jerome Bettis, but I like guys at other positions better. Maybe Haley and Greene both get the call. I went with one of the safeties. I actually like Steve Atwater slightly better than Lynch, but Lynch made finalist in 2014, while Atwater made it only to the semifinal level. Voters have got to start recognizing the increased importance of the safety position, particularly with guys like Darren Woodson already going under supported and others like Ed Reed, Troy Polamalu and Brian Dawkins soon headed for eligibility. I think that starts with one of the two predicted finalists at the position in 2015.

Tony: I thought the first four on my list were pretty easy.

Junior Seau is the biggest no-brainer on the list in my eyes, as he was a dominating player over the first 10-12 seasons of his career, and remained a solid role player and veteran leader in his later years.

The next four on my list go to guys who made the final five to be eliminated in the 2014 balloting.

Marvin Harrison jumped Tim Brown in the list, and while it wouldn’t be impossible for Brown to jump back ahead of Harrison, it would be shocking.

Will Shields has fallen victim to playing guard now for several years, and his time is due. I would not be 100 percent surprised if a guy like Orlando Pace were to jump him, given that Pace played left tackle, and was dominant for the first few years of his career, but ultimately I think the way he broke down later in his career will force him to wait at least one year.

Charles Haley gets the nod in my book over Kevin Greene, primarily due to the Super Bowl rings, and being unofficially the biggest snub of this year. No idea how much it may make a difference, but a lot of today’s voters are on Twitter, giving fans direct access—and in watching the tweet stream as the voting results came out, Haley seemed to have the biggest groundswell. I think the voters know they can’t keep him out forever, as much as some of the writers may want to, and they’ll probably hold their noses and get it over with this year.

I was very tempted to give Greene the final spot, but ultimately I don’t see two hybrid linebacker/defensive ends going in the same year.

That leaves Jerome Bettis as the option from the final five to get cut in the 2014 Hall of Fame voting. While it wouldn’t be impossible to see a guy like Pace make it a two offensive lineman class, I’ll give the edge to The Bus, who in my unofficial methods of analyzing it, was the second biggest snub of this year (even though I don’t agree with that).

As a further note, Andy did most of the work of picking the 15 finalists and I am not sure I agree 100 percent with the way that list came together either—this year’s top 15 finalist list might actually be harder to pick than the final five.

I could easily see James, Law, Mawae and possibly even Holt also making the final 15, and could easily see one of them jump Terrell Davis in the process.

I wouldn’t even be shocked to see another contributor make the list—Steve Sabol. I believe Sabol will take a few years to finally earn his induction—possibly coming after the Hall of Fame changes the contributor voting policy (if they in fact do), but Sabol will start to make the move soon.

The guys I could see dropping from the final 15 we selected? As I mentioned, Davis seems obvious. Atwater could suffer as well. DeBartolo has always seemed like a long shot to me. And even Tony Dungy, who I erroneously had making it into the Hall of Fame could possibly find his way out of the top 15, as after reviewing his case vs. other coaches, I don’t feel it’s nearly as strong as it was.

Andy: I completely agree with Tony on most of his points, especially the likelihood that the bottom two to four of our group of 15 finalists could be complete misses. The top, I think, is relatively set. But the bottom could bring more surprises than we’ve seen in awhile.

What do you think of the predictions made in this post?

  • Both writers seem to know their stuff (47%, 14 Votes)
  • These two clowns should reconsider the subject of this blog (37%, 11 Votes)
  • Andy is sharp, but Tony was throwing darts (13%, 4 Votes)
  • Tony is right on, but Andy must have been high (3%, 1 Votes)

Total Voters: 30

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