It’s a new year and I’m vowing to post more and better content to this blog in 2012. Well, at least more content to this blog, anyway. I’ll start with my own assessment of the NFL playoffs.

There are too many scenarios in the AFC heading into week 17. But the NFC outlook is pretty simple. There are a couple seeding issues to be resolved and then there’s the strangely bad NFC East yet to be decided, but otherwise it’s a pretty clear picture. Here’s a reverse-order assessment of who I think the conference’s biggest contenders are for the Lombardi Trophy.

(And here is a link to my thoughts on the AFC)

7. Dallas Cowboys — Dallas has enough talent to make some noise. But they’re so inconsistent. Do you get the team that annihilated pretenders like St. Louis and Buffalo? Or do you get the team that got beat by pretenders like Arizona and the Eagles? I think they lose to the Giants tonight anyway but if they do win and get into the playoffs I think they’re a one-and-done.

6. New York Giants — New York has enough talent to make some noise. But they’re so inconsistent. Do you get the team that won comfortably in games against the Jets, the Eagles and the Rams and took then-unbeaten Green Bay to the end? Or do you get the team that got stomped by New Orleans and, ahem, lost to Washington twice? I think they win tonight and get in, but I don’t think they get beyond round one.

5. Atlanta Falcons — The Falcons are a good team but they’re not upper echelon this year. And the draw is going to be a tough one, particularly if Detroit beats Green Bay. If things go as they are expected — or as I expect them to, anyway — the Falcons will end up back in New Orleans. I don’t think frustration with the Saints’ running up the score in the last meeting will be enough to overcome the fact that the black-and-gold enter the playoffs playing the best football in the NFL right now.

4. Detroit Lions — I love the direction Detroit is going, but this team has not been in the playoffs since about 1917. This is going to be a dangerous, competitive team for years to come. But there are still deficiencies in the offensive line, the defensive backfield and in the running game. It’s a huge step this team has taken this year — this team is just three years removed from 0-16 and Matt Millen — but for all the strides, this season won’t end with them hoisting the trophy in Indianapolis.

3. San Francisco 49ers — Now for the real contenders. I think the 49ers are going to win today and get a first-round bye. That’s stunning to me, considering I thought the Niners had planned on spending 2011 attempting to go after Andrew Luck. Alex Smith has proven that he can play quarterback. The defense is historically good. I am thoroughly impressed with this team. That said, they feasted on a relatively weak NFC West. And as good as Smith has been, he’s not as good as Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers. San Francisco will give either of those teams a challenge but will come up short.

2. New Orleans Saints — There isn’t a more entertaining team playing in the NFL right now. Drew Brees has been incredible and the offense is running in an amazingly fine-tuned fashion. However, the Saints are unlikely to secure a bye and they cannot get homefield advantage. New Orleans is dramatically better at home than on the road. And the precision passing game will likely have to go through Lambeau Field to get to the Super Bowl.

1. Green Bay Packers — The Packers did not make it through the regular season unscathed, as we previously predicted they might. But they’re still the league’s best team. New Orleans is playing a bit better than Green Bay as the season comes to a close, but the Packers have Lambeau Field as their ace-in-the-hole. The Pack were my Super Bowl pick at the beginning and I can’t see betting against them now.

EDIT: It’s the risk of running a post like this before the playoffs are set, but the games on Sunday changed my outlook a bit. I still stand by my top three. But as of today I would drop Detroit to sixth. The loss to Green Bay puts them on a path that would require road wins against both New Orleans and Green Bay just to reach the NFC Championship game. That’s an unlikely scenario, even if Detroit is on top of its game. The Falcons and the Giants would then each move up a spot.

What are your thoughts?