There were too many teams left alive to do a really good assessment of the AFC heading into yesterday’s finales. But even after those games narrowed the field to six it’s still hard to see a clear frontrunner.
Just like with the NFC, I could see any of three teams emerging through the AFC playoffs. Here’s my best guess.
6. Denver Broncos — I respect Tim Tebow, the man. I think Tim Tebow the quarterback actually showed some improvement as a quarterback through some stretches of the Broncos’ six-game winning streak. But at the end of the season, as the Broncos were attempting to make a playoff push, the quarterback’s shortcomings were exposed. At 8-8, Denver outperformed my expectations for them this season. But with a still solid Steelers team coming to town this weekend, I think the relatively undeserved playoff berth ends early.
5. Houston Texans — I love the direction this team is going. Unfortunately, what started out as a great team has been hit hard by injuries. Depending on the status of TJ Yates’ shoulder, the Texans will be going with either their third-string or fourth-string quarterback against Cincinnati. The future is bright for Houston. But they’re heading into the playoffs with a three-game losing streak. Even if they get past the wild card round they’re unlikely to make much of a run this year.
4. Cincinnati Bengals — Cincy backed into the playoffs a bit, losing three of five to finish the season. This is another team that appears headed in the right direction, with a decent defense and rookies Andy Dalton and AJ Green. They got a good draw, meaning they could potentially get their first playoff win since the 1990 season when team patriarch Paul Brown was still alive. But it’s not going to be enough for them to make a run all the way to the Super Bowl.
3. New England Patriots — Tom Brady and Bill Belichick could easily make me look like a fool for this pick. The Patriots’ offense is as good as there is in the league. But the defense has been abused. Any number of playoff teams could make New England’s defensive backs look silly. The Patriots will be a tough out but I don’t think they’re built at the moment for postseason success.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers — Rashard Mendenhall tore his ACL. Ben Roethlisberger is still hobbling on his ankle. But Mendenhall isn’t a gamebreaking running back. And like him or hate him, Roethlisberger is tough as nails. The Steelers have not looked great for a few weeks. But the defense is still good enough to keep them in any game they play. And they’ve proven to come up big in playoff situations in recent years. As with any of the top three, Pittsburgh will be a tough out in January.
1. Baltimore Ravens — Baltimore has played poorly against lesser competition this season, losing a couple games they should have won and squeaking out a couple of others. Ray Lewis isn’t himself anymore and the Ravens have looked vulnerable at times. But they were 8-0 at home, even if they weren’t all impressive wins. And they play tougher football on defense and in the run game than New England, which is the only team they would have to go on the road to face. Joe Flacco has not progressed to the level I would have expected him to at this stage of his career, but Ray Rice and a veteran staff makes this, in my eyes, the team to beat in the AFC.
Am I right or wrong? Let’s hear your thoughts.
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