Picks n’ Bets: Wild Card Weekend, 2019

We wrapped up the regular season with alternative picks and picks won fairly decisively. Our bets segment went down to the wire.

Alternative picks:

Straight-up picks

Both Andy and Tony won significantly on the bets this season.

There aren’t really enough games to make an alternative picks segment worth continuing in the playoffs, but we’ll keep up with the bets and picks in the postseason, especially since we’ve actually got some mythical money to work with…

First, our picks for each game …

And … finally … our bets.

Tony:

$5,000 – New Orleans (-8, -103) vs Minnesota – I hate to do it, and I guess I’d never feel better about losing a mythical $5k, but I didn’t see a way that the Vikings could stop Michael Thomas before Mike Hughes and Mackensie Alexander were ruled out for the game…

$2,500 – New England (-4.5, -110) vs Tennessee – The Titans have the leading rusher in the NFL, and a cute little story in Ryan Tannehill—but do we really think Bill Belichick isn’t going to have something up his sleeve for this one?

$1,500 – Minnesota at New Orleans: Over 49.5 (-109) – That’s a lot of points, but with their history over the last decade (Bountygate, Minneapolis Miracle), I’m not sure that the Saints will let up even if they get out to a big lead—they might put Teddy Bridgewater in to rub a little salt in the wound, though…

$750 – Buffalo (+125 money line) at Houston – Yeah, the Texans get JJ Watt back, but I just like what the Bills have been able to do this year. Since this is the only upset I’m picking, guess this has to be the one.

Andy:

$3,500 – New Orleans (-7.5, -109) vs Minnesota – For all the reasons Tony listed above, I agree with him. Minnesota was a long-shot to win this game before they started suffering injuries in the defensive backfield. Now … uff da. Could be a long day.

$2,500 – Buffalo (+2.5, +100) at Houston – Deshaun Watson is better than Josh Allen. With two question mark teams that can often be the deciding factor. But I love the Bills’ defense and think that will be the difference here. Could have taken them at +3, -125 to guard against the field goal win for Houston, but went with the riskier bet because I think Buffalo wins comfortably.

$2,500 – Minnesota at New Orleans: Over 49.5 – The only way – ONLY way – this game is close is if the Vikings can run the ball effectively and win time of possession handily. If not, the script plays out like this: Saints jump out to several score lead, defense backs off, Vikings put up a couple late scores to get to the over. I don’t expect Kirk Cousins to fare well in a shootout, but this bet should indicate what I expect to see happen this weekend.

$1,000 – Tennessee (+195 money line) at New England – As Mike Golic said on his show this morning, sooner or later when you try to “flip the switch” after playing poorly at the end of the regular season, you try to do so but “the light bulb has burnt out.” I could be way off on this, but … Tom Brady is looking just a little too un-Tom-Brady-like this season. And the Titans have played well of late. If Derrick Henry can get going against the Pats’ run defense, this is very winnable for Tennessee.