Editor’s Note: Paul sent us the bulk of this post some time back…we’ve modified it slightly to adjust for the fact that the nominees were cut down to the semifinalists list announced today…and we will add our predictions in the comments.

With today’s announcement that the 130 modern era nominees has been cut to 25 semi-finalists, we move onto the next step in the process to cut the list to 15 finalists (early January), and finally naming of the class on Selection Saturday when the Hall voters will meet in Tampa on February 6th (hopefully), the day before the Super Bowl, with the official announcement later that evening during the annual NFL Honors show (although news will certainly filter out via social media by 5-6p that day).

The focus of attention will be on another loaded first ballot group of candidates with QB Peyton Manning, CB Charles Woodson, WR Calvin Johnson, and DE Jared Allen. Plus likely returning finalists including S Leroy Butler (2nd year as finalist), OT Tony Boselli (5th year), OG Alan Faneca (6th yr), S John Lynch (8th yr),  DT Richard Seymour (3rd yr), and LB Zack Thomas (2nd yr).

Predicting the five modern candidates to be elected can be challenging as always a surprise or two, rules allow for 3-5 but recent elections has seen the maximum of 5 and we can assume same for class of 2021 as voters have plenty of deserving players to get into the Hall eventually.  Voters typically are very quiet leading up to and after the selection meeting, making it very difficult to determine any preferences or popular candidates.  This year will be no different, in fact perhaps even more challenging as there have been some changes to the committee membership, adding a few new voices and opinions into the 48 member group who will make the final selections via a series of votes from 15 to 10 and finally to 5, who then require 80% from the committee to be elected.

But we can start with some pretty basic assumptions when looking to predict the class of 2021 moderns: QB Payton Manning and CB Charles Woodson will be locks to be elected.  Although the term “lock” is often misused by many when considering 1st ballot elections, in the case of these two candidates it is not an overstatement or misjudgment. That leaves 3 remaining slots for modern candidates to be filled by the votes, and one that is very likely to be given to Pittsburg Steeler OG Alan Faneca, a deserving player who has waited too long in the minds of many and will also benefit from the voters support for OL to be added (his profile of 6x first team all pro, 9x pro bowls, first team all decade, and SB make him very qualified).  It will be the final 2 slots were the discussions, debate and voting will be interesting and certainly more challenging to predict.  But that never stopped any of us from trying before, so let’s have at it.

First, I think perhaps the most controversial and discussed aspect of the class of 2021 elections will be that Detroit Lions WR Calvin “Megatron” Johnson will not be selected.  He certainly has the credentials with 3x first team all pro selections, 6x pro bowl and 2010s all decade team (along with NE Patriots OG Logan Mankins he becomes first from that all decade team to appear on PFHOF ballot).  But many fans and supporters are missing the reality that the voters do not tend to support 1st ballot elections for WRs and also look to delay elections for short career candidates – Johnson played for nine seasons, hence lacks major career receiving statistics.  There will certainly be support in the room for him, he could very well could make the final 10 stage, but I foresee a wait of a few years before election.   Also worth noting that WRs are really crowding the ballot with Johnson, plus Torry Holt (2020 finalist), Jimmy Smith, Hines Ward, Reggie Wayne (2020 finalist) and others-any more to join in the next few years.  Voters will have their hands full in coming elections to sort out a massive logjam at the WR position.

So back to those two other slots (after predicting election of Manning, Woodson and Faneca).  One historical trend of voters is addressing the wait for deserving candidates who continue to appear as finalist but await election.  I am predicting that they will address this concern for OT Tony Boselli and elect him into this class.  And yes I know that two OL elected is a rare occurrence, but given this will be his 5th year on the ballot (and he finished in final 10 each of the last three elections so he has support of voters) will convince voters it’s time to elect the first Jacksonville Jaguar to the Hall.  That leaves one final slot, and the 5th modern candidate elected is often the most difficult to predict and this year is no different in that regard.  The top contender should be viewed as Lynch, Seymour or Thomas. And one could make the case for any of the three (or Butler for that matter), it will be a real toss up how 48 voters view these candidates and who secures enough support to election.  I am usually dismissive of the “home town” influence playing a factor – that the Superbowl teams or location influences the voters when considering modern candidates for the Hall – but in this case I am going to go with former Tampa Bay Buc Safety John Lynch as my prediction.  But admit that it could very well be Seymour or Thomas as both are deserving and have their supporters.

So there you have it, my class of 2021 modern predictions of Payton Manning, Charles Woodson, Alan Faneca, Tony Boselli, and John Lynch.  Anyone else willing to go out on a limb with their reputation on the line and make a prediction?  Leave your thoughts in the comments below.