Somewhere along the end of the early games and the start of the late ones on Sunday, the 2011 NFL season will hit its halfway point. And without question so far the Green Bay Packers have looked like the league’s most dominant team so far.
Are they a shoo-in for another Super Bowl Championship? Absolutely not. When St. Louis kicked all kinds of dog crap out of New Orleans last Sunday it only served to prove once again that on any given Sunday anyone can beat anyone else. And once the playoffs start it’s one-and-done.
But they are the best thing going so far. And if they run the table in the regular season, they have a good chance at accomplishing what New England could not: 19-0.
So who are the NFC’s biggest playoff threats to Green Bay between now and the awarding of another Lombardi Trophy? Here are our guesses:
6. San Francisco 49ers – There isn’t a team in the league that has surprised me more. I thought this team was going to be in the Andrew Luck mix. Hell, I thought the team WANTED to be in the Andrew Luck mix. Instead they’re 6-1, using a mix of Frank Gore’s running and a solid defense to dominate a weak NFC West.
Why they won’t win: At this point I think San Francisco is going to win the NFC West so they might get a shot at Green Bay. But let’s remember – the NFC West sucks. Seattle won it with seven wins last season. So while San Francisco is improved, they likely aren’t quite that much better. The biggest reason the Packers would win this game is that Green Bay’s strengths – particularly the passing game – play into the 49ers’ weaknesses – pass defense. San Francisco stops the run well, but Green Bay doesn’t run much. San Francisco runs well, but Green Bay is pretty good at shutting that down. I like where San Francisco is headed and Jim Harbaugh appears to be the real deal as a coach. But they’re not ready to be in the playoffs with Green Bay just yet.
5. Dallas Cowboys – Dallas looked terrible in getting trounced in Philadelphia last night. But there is no shortage of talent on the Cowboys’ roster. They have the pass rush, particularly in DeMarcus Ware, to harass Aaron Rodgers. And there is a deep enough collection of offensive talent, from Dez Bryant to Miles Austin to Jason Witten to DeMarco Murray to Laurent Robinson to Felix Jones, to take advantage of a defense that has proven vulnerable at times. If Tony Romo is able to play a mistake-free game – yes, a big if – the Cowboys have the team needed to give Green Bay a game.
Why they won’t win: While Green Bay has some vulnerability on defense, they have been able to overcome them to this point by simply scoring at will. Michael Vick tore Dallas apart Sunday night and the Packers’ skill players are better than Philly’s. If these teams played 10 times, Green Bay would win eight, maybe nine.
4. Atlanta Falcons – Atlanta came as close as anyone has to knocking off Green Bay so far, holding the Pack to 25 points in week five. They did what they had to coming out of the gate, taking a 14-0 lead. They got plenty of pass rush in that game and they caused Ryan Grant to lose a fumble. But they weren’t able to sustain the offensive momentum. The Falcons also have the mix of short and long weapons in the pass game and a formidable enough run attack to stay balanced. If they can get out to a lead like they did in October and sustain it, Atlanta has a chance to be the team that takes the Packers out.
Why they won’t win: For one thing, the difference between Matt Ryan at home and on the road is glaring. Atlanta has already had their shot at Green Bay in the cozy confines of the Georgia Dome. A playoff game likely would be at Lambeau Field. Green Bay clobbered Atlanta last year in Atlanta. I can’t see the Pack losing this matchup in Wisconsin. I’ve also been disappointed by the wall Ryan seems to have come across in his development. He started off well enough as a rookie where I thought he’d be a better quarterback by now. He’s good, but not good enough to win this game in the playoffs just yet.
3. Detroit Lions – I actually saw some clown on the Internet write a couple weeks ago that Detroit and New Orleans were the two best teams in the NFC and that Green Bay was overrated. That idiot should have his bandwidth removed. Nonetheless, Detroit has a great defensive line and Megatron along with several other weapons. And they’re gaining a reputation for being willing to punch their opponents in the mouth. Give the Lions a crack at the Packers at Ford Field and there is a good chance for an upset. Match these teams up in the playoffs and it could be one of those high-scoring games where with a turnover at the right time could swing an upset in their direction.
Why they won’t win: There are several reasons the Lions won’t beat Green Bay. For one, the team that does is most likely going to do so, at least in part, by keeping the Packers’ offense off the field. With Jahvid Best and Mikel Leshoure hurt, Detroit has not proven it can sustain enough of a running game against bad defenses, much less against a sturdy run defense like Green Bay’s. Second, the Lions are a great story, but there are still a number of holes on that team that must be filled before they’ll be a true Super Bowl contender. The offensive line isn’t a mess, but it needs improvement. And there are not enough defensive backs to cover everyone Green Bay will throw at them. Detroit is definitely up and coming, but they aren’t a finished product.
2. Philadelphia Eagles – The Eagles’ upside was on display last Sunday night against Dallas. LeSean McCoy was a monster. The offensive line was good enough that tight end Brent Celek could do more than just stay in and block. Jeremy Maclin is having a great year. DeSean Jackson has been quiet, but is due for a major breakout game in the near future. And, oh year, Mike Vick is still a dual-threat quarterback – in fact he still looks to me like he is a far better passer now than he ever was back in Atlanta. It looks like Andy Reid once again has his outfit ready to peak after the bye. Philadelphia also has the three corners, Nnamdi Asomugha, Asante Samuel and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. They haven’t gelled yet, but the trio gives them a better shot than most teams have of limiting the damage Green Bay can inflict.
Why they won’t win: Well, the Eagles’ linebacking corps is still in flux. The Eagles haven’t stopped the run all season, though Green Bay has not shown that it is really skilled at running the ball yet. And even with three great cornerbacks, the Packers still have enough weapons to outnumber the Eagles. This would be an exciting shootout. But as good as big a threat as Vick can be when he is on, Rodgers is playing even that much better for Green Bay.
1. New Orleans Saints – Watching the Saints play St. Louis on Sunday, it’s a wonder anyone could ever see them beating Green Bay. But the Saints seem to have one of these every year – this year it was St. Louis, last year it was Cleveland. They still have a collection of wide receivers, a mix of running backs and a stud tight end in Jimmy Graham. The biggest weapon? One of just a couple quarterbacks in Drew Brees capable on a good day of matching Rodgers yard for yard and touchdown for touchdown. The Packers got the better of the Saints at Lambeau Field on opening night of the season but New Orleans did show that they can stick with the Packers on any given night.
Why they won’t win: The Saints won’t win for the same reason they didn’t win on opening night. The Packers scored one more time than New Orleans did. Both offenses are so good that, at least on that night, neither defense had even a shot. If I had to choose between the two defensive units right now I’d pick the Packers.
So yes, Green Bay looks like a machine. They can be beaten. But it’d take the right combination of weapons along with an almost flawlessly played game.
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