We got away from the prediction segments we’ve tried to do the last couple years. But I’m going to revive it, if only for the playoffs. (Pointspreads via Vegas.com)
Saturday, January 8
New Orleans (-10) at Seattle
No Chris Ivory? No Pierre Thomas? No problem. New Orleans is missing a lot of weapons for this game in Seattle, including the two running backs and rookie tight end Jimmy Graham, who has developed into one of Drew Brees’ favorite targets the latter half of the season. Luckily for New Orleans they play, arguably, the least worthy playoff team in the NFL’s long history. Yes, Seattle won its division and yes, division champions host their first playoff games each season. But it’s no lie to say that if it weren’t for playing in the NFC West Seattle would be preparing for a top 10 draft pick rather than a playoff game. Early in the week I thought I would probably pick the Saints by 30. With the injuries I’ll back off that some. But I still expect the Saints to comfortably cover the spread and win by at least two touchdowns and probably more.
New York Jets at Indianapolis (-2)
The Colts had to win four in a row to win the AFC South and make the playoffs. The Jets struggled a bit at the end of the season. The Jets’ defense hasn’t been as dominant this season as last either. And Peyton Manning finally seems to be connecting with his remaining collection of teammates. Still, for some reason, I have a gut feeling about New York in this game. They have to establish the run early to control the clock and keep Manning on the bench. They have to score early if and when they have an opportunity. The Colts, I think, at full strength, are the better team. And if this turns into a shootout, they’ll But if a formula similar to the playoff game New York played at San Diego last season develops, I think the Jets can grind out a low scoring game. Foolishly, possibly, that is what I am predicting. Jets in a close one.
Sunday, January 9
Baltimore (-3) at Kansas Ciy
The Chiefs have been one of my favorite teams to watch this year. Jamaal Charles is one of my favorite players. Dwayne Bowe won me some fantasy football cash. The team came out of nowhere to post 10 wins and knock San Diego from its perch atop the AFC West. Still, Baltimore is the better team. The defense is less dominant than in seasons past, but is still top notch. And the offense has a passing game to go with Ray Rice and Willis McGahee on the ground. The Chiefs’ 2010 season is a great story. But it ends Sunday. Ravens win by at least a touchdown, likely more.
Green Bay at Philadelphia (-3)
Toughest game of the week to pick. The Packers beat the Eagles the first week of the regular season but neither team, due to injury or effectiveness, fields anywhere close to the same lineup they started with. Aerial fireworks will rule the day. The Packers’ defensive backs are very good, the Eagles wide receivers are fantastic. The Packers receivers probably have an edge over Philly’s defensive backs. At the beginning of the season I expected the Packers to be one of the top Super Bowl competitors this year, but that was before Ryan Grant got hurt. This game could come down to which team finds any semblance of a run game to keep the opposing defense off balance. In that case, I’ll take LeSean McCoy over any of the options the Packers can throw out there. Eagles win a high scoring game by right around a field goal.
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It seems the Saints are better at onside kicks during the start of the second half than the end.
Yeah. I misread that game by a little bit. Wow. Did not think the Hawks had a chance in heck of winning that game.
J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS! Peace Peyton! I think he is overrated. If people pay attention to the post season stats, instead of the regular season, they can see how over hyped he is. With the loss vs the Jets, he is now 9-10 as a starter. Not that impressive.
Brad, in case you forget – football is a team sport. Great players can have poor win-loss records if the rest of the team is not up to scratch and this years Colts team was as bad a Colts team that we’ve seen for a long time.
I honestly don’t think he’s over-hyped. He’s just never had the supporting cast (esp. defensively) that Brady or Roethlisberger have had.
Tom Brady made the Patriots. Prior to the Brady era, Drew Bledsoe was the QB. First year with Bill, they went 5-11. The next year, Brady’s 2nd year, Drew Bledsoe went 0-3 than got hurt, Tom Brady came in, won the Super Bowl that year, and the rest is history.
Brady may have been the missing cog, but they would never have won all that without a great D.
Now,, Favre had Reggie White on his defense, one of the greatest defenders of all time, let alone, one of the greatest player of all time and still only to win one. Now, one is enough, because the goal is winning the Super Bowl, but winning 3 is better. And Tom didn’t have an Antonio Freeman type of WR on his team like Favre. I’m just saying.
And I’m just saying that to use a win-loss record as a way to measure individual success is not a good idea. That’s a team statistic, not an individual one. Sure winning 3 rings is better than one, but that should not factor into a discussion as to whom is the better player.
Now, Brady may well be a better QB than Manning, but rings or win-loss records have nothing to do with it. If they did, Terry Bradshaw would be the best QB ever and Trent Dilfer would be on a par with Brett Favre.