NFL Picks 2013: Super Bowl

It’s Super Bowl week.

We’ve gone through 20 weeks of football in anticipation of this game – no I still don’t count the Pro Bowl. Denver’s offense versus Seattle’s defense … have I mentioned that I picked this game before the season?

It’s about all I’ve gotten right … well, except for the championship weekend picks. Here’s how we ended up last weekend.

And here’s what we think is going to happen on Sunday.

Anthony Maggio, fantasy football editor

I don’t care about Peyton Manning and his history in cold weather, outdoors, near oceans or in games after 3 pm Eastern. What I do care about is that cold/wet weather can generally mute scoring, which plays into the hands of defensively inclined teams. Additionally, the league’s best offense and defense have squared off in the Super Bowl four times in the last 40 years, with the top defense 3-1 in those tilts. Those are two check marks on the Seattle side of the ledger. That said, I think Manning is smart enough and has enough weapons to take advantage of single-coverage and generally avoid troublesome throws. If I knew it’d be windy and wet enough to truly impact the passing game, I’d probably go with Seattle just because that serves as another defender for the Seahawks. The Seahawks will run the ball well and do a little in the passing game, and Denver will run the ball OK with Seattle worried about the aerial attack—an attack that becomes a bit neutralized by bad weather. But if Mother Nature generally cooperates, I think Julius Thomas proves to be the X-factor with Seattle’s secondary preoccupied with Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker.

Tony Tellijohn, co-founder

In a game where the top ranked offense meets the top ranked defense, it seems often to fall to the secondary matchups to determine the outcome of the game. In this case, that pits the Seattle offense against the Denver defense. Will Marshawn Lynch be able to run against a defense that will likely be geared to stop him? Will second year quarterback Russell Wilson be able to take advantage of a recently depleted Denver secondary to put points on the board if the Denver defense is able to stop Lynch? Will Percy Harvin bring anything to the game? Which of Seattle’s other seemingly nameless wide receivers will step up if he isn’t able to? All questions that should factor heavily into the outcome of the game.

One other factor that I feel has been overlooked so far—at least in the coverage I’ve heard—is the impact of the 12th man on this game. Or rather, likely lack of impact. Both teams are used to playing in front of raucous crowds, but the Seattle 12th man has appeared to have taken their reputation for impacting games to a nauseating new high, what with the recorded tremors and Guinness records. Could this now work against Seattle, with a crowd at the Super Bowl that will likely be facing Super Bowl record cold conditions (I can attest that the addition of gloves, hats and multiple layers of protection tends to dampen crowd noise)—on top of the fact that the crowd is typically already a soulless corporate crowd more interested in being at the game than who is playing in it.

Ultimately, all of this leads me to believe that we will see this season’s MVP walk away with another Lombardi trophy—and “out of the shadow” of his younger brother, for those few morons that want to hang on to the delusion that somehow Eli riding his Giant defenses to two Super Bowl wins makes him the superior QB in the Manning family. With any luck, Peyton will put up numbers worthy of the MVP trophy—which would be the first time either he or his brother managed to do that, despite them walking away with the award in each one of their three Super Bowl appearances to date.

Denver 27, Seattle 20

Andy Tellijohn, co-founder, editorial director

Have I mentioned that this is the Super Bowl I picked before the season?

Okay, it’s the last time you’ll hear me mention it. I’ve been otherwise humbled this season by poor pointspread predictions and lackluster fantasy football finishes, so I had to brag myself up where I could.

As for the game, my brother often accuses me of being long-winded. This time the rap is on him, as his “paragraph” not only goes on for three, but he also stole a couple of the points I wanted to make – specifically the one where big brother Peyton has a chance to match his younger, less-talented brother’s status as a multiple Super Bowl winner.

Heading into the season I picked the Seahawks to win this game. I still love the defense. But as good as Seattle’s depth is in the defensive backfield — and it is as good a defense as Denver has seen all year — Manning still is likely to be able to find ways to exploit it.

The question for me becomes once he mentally exploits it, does he have the physical ability, specifically arm strength on a possibly windy night, to deal with the elements. Maggio summed that up nicely. I think he’ll come up with a way to do so.

I love this match-up. I think the game is a coin flip. But forced to make a pick, I’m going with Denver. Russell Wilson will be back. He’s great. But he’s not quite ready to best Manning on the biggest stage in sports.

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